Outback Bowl: Preview, Predictions for Florida vs. Iowa
After getting destroyed by College Football Playoff participant Alabama in the SEC Championship Game on the second leg of a two-game slide, the Florida Gators will try to end the season on a strong note in an Outback Bowl showdown with Iowa.
The Hawkeyes, on the other hand, will try to conclude a torrid finish to the season following a 40-10 decimation of Nebraska to give them their third straight victory and propel them to a 9-4 record.
This is a matchup of two programs that had higher expectations entering the season, but the bottom line is both teams hope to build some momentum entering the offseason as they look toward the future.
The Gators and Hawkeyes have met twice before in the Outback Bowl with Iowa winning to end the 2003 season and Florida coming out victorious two years later. The only other time they met was in 1983.
UF coach Jim McElwain will try to navigate around all the injuries his team has sustained this year. Iowa was disappointing at the start of the season after narrowly missing the College Football Playoff a season ago under veteran coach Kirk Ferentz.
It should be a quality showdown between the SEC and Big Ten. Let's take a look at everything you need to know for the game.
Date: Monday, Jan. 2
Time: 1 p.m. ET
Place: Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, Florida
TV: ABC
Radio: Gator IMG Sports Network, Iowa Hawkeye Sports Network
Tale of the Tape
1 of 7The biggest thing these numbers show is that this is going to be a defensive struggle. In those cases, a lot of times, the opposite happens, but don't expect it here.
Iowa is 10th nationally in scoring defense, allowing 18 points per game. The Gators are a putrid 107th in scoring offense. The Gators are one spot behind the Hawkeyes in scoring defense, and Iowa hasn't won any beauty pageants on offense, either.
So, this has all the trappings to be a punt-fest with a couple of big plays making the difference. The Gators need to make a couple of those to win, because Iowa certainly doesn't hurt itself with turnovers.
Keys to Victory for Florida
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Keep that passing momentum
There aren't a whole lot of positives for Florida to take from a 54-16 beatdown by Alabama, but the way quarterback Austin Appleby moved the ball through the air was one.
Yes, he threw three interceptions, but against the best defense in the nation, he also tossed two touchdown passes along with 261 passing yards and found eight different receivers.
"We had a pretty good game plan, I felt," McElwain told the Orlando Sentinel's Edgar Thompson following the SEC Championship Game. "We put some dents in them."
Alabama is a different animal, and any team would seem easier after that. So, that's a big bonus for the Gators in the wake of the nationally televised embarrassment.
The biggest positive was getting star sophomore receiver Antonio Callaway in the game plan, something UF has lacked in its passing struggles this season. Tight end DeAndre Goolsby was also a major weapon against the Tide, and Florida needs to focus on getting him the ball more moving into the bowl game.
Gator bait
Early in the game against Alabama, Florida dialed up multiple fronts to confuse Alabama freshman quarterback Jalen Hurts. While that ended up not mattering, it's a game plan the Gators must continue moving forward.
If the defensive front seven can get to the quarterback despite all the injuries, it opens things up for a quality secondary to make game-changing plays. Florida has the secondary to do it, featuring Jalen "Teez" Tabor and Quincy Wilson, among others.
Since UF isn't going to score a lot of points, it has to continue to create some big plays from a defense that has carried the team all year.
That needs to remain a major point of emphasis leading into the bowl, but veteran C.J. Beathard will be tough to rattle.
Scarlett better
Jordan Scarlett was never going to have a big game against Alabama's rush defense, which is No. 1 in the nation.
But that shouldn't impact their game plan or diminish anything the sophomore has accomplished this season. Scarlett was a workhorse in the win over LSU, and he is an emerging star in Florida's backfield.
He should be a major part of this offense in the bowl game, especially considering the Hawkeyes' issues stopping the run for much of the season.
Keys to Victory for Iowa
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Take the pressure off Beathard
Florida's stout defense has been successful against teams with offensive inconsistencies all year. While the Hawkeyes have proven they've indeed gotten better as the season has progressed, they can't regress to early-season form.
Beathard is a veteran quarterback who takes care of the ball for the most part, but he can't be asked to win games on his own. That's where Iowa's dynamic running back duo of Akrum Wadley and LeShun Daniels Jr. comes in.
They've both been stellar all year, and if Wadley can get 34 yards against the Gators, both will finish the year over 1,000 yards rushing. He's the home-run threat while Daniels is an every-down back.
Those guys need to control the tempo of the game and move the chains. If they do, it will help Beathard against UF's battle-tested D.
Disciplinarians
Despite not being dynamic offensively this season, the Hawkeyes haven't hurt themselves.
They're tied for second nationally with just nine giveaways all season. That's remarkable entering the postseason.
Also, though Iowa wasn't in the red zone as much as a lot of teams, it made them count, scoring touchdowns on 27 of 38 trips, good enough for a 71 percent clip.
"Meanwhile, opponents scored TDs on just 50 percent of such trips — 17 of 34," wrote the Des Moines Register's Chad Leistikow. "In other words, Iowa traded nearly equal red-zone opportunities with its opponents, yet came away with 10 more touchdowns. More points are good."
The Hawkeyes must continue that same level of consistency and accuracy. If they do, they'll be a tough out for the Gators.
Pressure the Gators' signal-caller
Alabama proved what happens when Appleby is forced to make decisions on the fly. Of course, the Hawkeyes aren't the Crimson Tide, either.
It will be an interesting decision to see whether Appleby or Luke Del Rio will play for the Gators in the bowl game. Both have proven susceptible to making mistakes. Iowa has struggled to get to opposing quarterbacks this year, finishing with just 25 sacks.
They need to ramp up the heat in this one.
Players to Watch for Florida
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Teez Tabor
Florida's brash junior cornerback is one of the best players at his position in the nation, and he has the ability to not only bait quarterbacks into making poor throws but take them to the house when he intercepts them.
In a year where most quarterbacks stayed away from him, Tabor was still tied for third in the league with four interceptions, and he also had nine passes defended.
At 6'0", 201 pounds, he's the ideal size for a cornerback, and he will almost certainly be a first-round draft pick next June.
You'll want to avoid him at all costs.
Antonio Callaway
Florida doesn't have a bunch of difference-makers on offense like it did back in the salad days of Steve Spurrier or Urban Meyer. But one player who is a lot like the stars of those days is Callaway.
When the Gators offense is clicking, they're getting the ball to the versatile sophomore in a variety of different ways. You can throw deep to him, hand it off, get it to him in the flats and watch him juke through defenders. He also will return punts.
Callaway is fast, athletic and one of the top pass-catchers in the SEC. He needs to get at least 10 touches in the bowl game, and Iowa has few defenders who can hang with him.
Jarrad Davis
After missing several weeks leading up to the game, the star senior gritted things out against Alabama and played despite an ankle injury.
He wound up with four tackles before exiting the game early.
"You can think that but at the end of the day in football, in life, you have to play the hand that you are dealt," Davis told News4Jax.com's Matt Kingston. "You have to come out and fight your hardest and put your life on the line and give it everything you have."
He'll have nearly a month to recover now, and he should be ready to go for the bowl.
Players to Watch for Nebraska
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Akrum Wadley
For all that talk about SEC speed, Wadley is one of those Iowa players who can close the gap in that department.
He's a home-run hitter with the best of them, and Ferentz tries to get him in space, run him on jet sweeps and get the ball to him in the open field. At 5'11", 170 pounds, he's actually proven to be pretty durable, and he can be a game-changer, even against the best defenses in the country.
Wrote Landof10.com's Bobby La Gesse:
"Wadley put together an amazing season. Without him, Iowa isn’t sitting with 8 wins and certainly doesn’t turn Kinnick Stadium into Iowa’s version of Mardi Gras. He also was one of the most efficient runners in the league. His 6.6 yards per carry is the best in the league and he needed fewer carries than any of the other backs to get to within 40 yards of the 1,000-yard mark. Wadley is a playmaker.
"
Iowa needs Wadley to be the star he showed he can be against Michigan.
C.J. Beathard
The senior from Franklin, Tennessee, didn't make the leap to Big Ten star many hoped he would this year, but he remains a steady force in Iowa's unspectacular-but-efficient offense.
He finished with 17 touchdown passes and seven interceptions in the regular season, but the reason why the Hawkeyes leaned toward the run had nothing to do with him and everything to do with their two star running backs.
Beathard wound up with just 278 passing attempts for the team that threw the ball less than any other team in the conference. He may have to fling it up a few more times to beat the Gators.
Josey Jewell
The 6'2", 229-pound linebacker is the epitome of his team: He isn't flashy, but he just gets the job done.
As a run-stopping 'backer, he leads the team with 114 tackles, and while he almost never gets after the passer (0.5 tackles for a loss), Jewell is a stabilizing force who is always around the football and routinely gobbles up tackles.
Jewell finished second in the Big Ten in total tackles, and he'll be all over the field against the Gators. Against a team like UF that wants to establish the run, he'll be a big part of Iowa's defensive success or failures.
What They're Saying
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After laying an egg in last year's 41-7 Citrus Bowl loss to Michigan, Florida head coach Jim McElwain told GatorSports.com's Robbie Andreu he expects a better effort this year, especially as this will be the last time the Gators get to see what they've got before next year's season opener against the Wolverines.
This game against Iowa will be another foray into the Big Ten competition.
"Obviously, we open up with a big opponent next year in Dallas. So, the bowl game itself, we've got to go play hard and put a plan together and win. The guys have got to go compete, not be afraid. I was really disappointed, obviously, in the effort last year, but this is a different team. We've got some guys that are in it for a lot more than just themselves.
"
Iowa athletic director Gary Barta noted how excited his program is about going to the Outback Bowl, according to Andrew Ward of KWQC.com:
"We are excited and honored to be selected to participate in the 2017 Outback Bowl. Coach Kirk Ferentz, his entire staff, and our student-athletes closed the season with three impressive victories, and their hard work and commitment to the program has been rewarded. With the end of season performances, our team certainly earned its way to this exciting bowl event. Iowa football has a strong history with the Outback Bowl, and the city of Tampa, and we are excited to have Tampa as the destination for the loyal and supportive fans of our program. Our passionate fan base always plays a part in our bowl selection and destination. As always, we know we will face a very strong opponent from the Southeastern Conference and we are looking forward to another outstanding Outback Bowl experience.
"
Prediction
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This is going to be one of those throwback slobber-knockers between two teams with quality defenses and two offenses that likely must rely on the run in order to win.
If you look at the bodies of work over the past couple of weeks, it looks like these are two programs going in opposite directions. Iowa has been scorching hot, and the Hawkeyes pulled off one of the most memorable upsets of the year, turning back then-undefeated Michigan.
Florida dropped its last two games in unimpressive fashion following a dramatic road win against LSU, losing to rival Florida State and then getting blown off the field in the SEC Championship Game against Alabama.
But the Gators are battle-tested, and even though they are beat up, a few of those players will be back in time for the bowl game. That can't do anything but help.
Coach McElwain had a strong game plan against the Crimson Tide, but the Gators were just out-manned. Even so, they found some things in the passing game that had been nonexistent through much of the season.
That will wind up proving the difference in a low-scoring affair as the Gators make a couple of plays downfield and wind up pulling this one out.
Prediction: Florida 23, Iowa 17
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