Burning Questions in College Basketball Early in the 2016-17 Season

Less than four weeks into the college basketball season, all we have are hints as to how things may play out. What has occurred so far provokes more questions than answers.

An early-season upset here or there can be given too much weight, often causing fans to draw premature conclusions about a team or player.

However, those November games expose some strengths and weaknesses of teams and players, and they provide a framework for what might happen over the next four months. November spawns the burning questions that will be answered in February and March.

Let's take a look at nine burning questions that have arisen.

How Good Is UCLA?

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It was clear after just a few games that UCLA freshman point guard Lonzo Ball was every bit as good as the hype. As the nation's No. 7-ranked recruit, according to Scout, Ball was touted as the multitalented playmaker the Bruins had lacked the past few seasons.

UCLA rolled through its first eight opponents, scoring 97 points per game and winning by an average margin of 24.1 points. Ball was averaging 14.6 points on 57.7 percent shooting, including 47.4 percent on three-pointers, while collecting 9.6 assists and 4.9 rebounds against 2.25 turnovers per game. He was making life easier for guards Isaac Hamilton and Bryce Alford, while freshman forward T.J. Leaf was also contributing big numbers.

However, the Bruins' opposition was suspect, with none of those first eight opponents being ranked.

Then came the Dec. 3 game against No. 1 Kentucky on the Wildcats' home court. Kentucky had won 42 straight games at Rupp Arena and had not lost a game there since its overtime loss to Arkansas on Feb. 27, 2014.

Furthermore, these Wildcats were beginning to look as good as any team John Calipari has coached. Kentucky had crushed Michigan State by 21 points, and that was its closest game while building its 7-0 record. The Wildcats had scored more than 100 points in each of the three games leading up to the UCLA game, winning those three by an average margin of 37.3 points. Adding to the Bruins' challenge was that the game began at 12:30 p.m. ET, which was 9:30 a.m. PT.

The last time UCLA had played Kentucky outside of Los Angeles, the Wildcats scored the game's first 24 points and led 41-7 at halftime of a game Kentucky won 83-44 in Chicago two years ago.

This time was different. UCLA controlled the game, winning 97-92 before 23,976 stunned Kentucky fans. The nation was impressed.

"Hopefully, the guys take a lot of confidence, a lot of momentum away, knowing they can play with anybody in the country," UCLA coach Steve Alford said, according to ESPN's Myron Metcalf. "Not just play with anybody in the country; we can beat anybody in the country."

"They manhandled us," Calipari said, according to Metcalf. "They physically manhandled us. And you don’t see that very often, especially in this building."

What made the result more impressive was that Ball had a mediocre game, making just five of his 12 field-goal attempts, including 2-of-8 shooting on three-pointers, while committing six turnovers, five of which came in the first half.

This UCLA team has Final Four potential, but let's wait awhile before bestowing greatness on these Bruins. UCLA has developed a reputation as a team with outstanding individual talent that does not always play well as a collective unit. One day, the Bruins might beat a ranked opponent decisively, and the the next day, they might lose to a bottom feeder.

Exactly one year earlier, on Dec. 3, 2015, UCLA beat a Kentucky team that was ranked No. 1, suggesting great possibilities. The Bruins wound up finishing 10th in the Pac-12 with a 6-12 conference record. UCLA needs more than one great win to prove itself.

When Will Duke Be Duke?

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Duke was the overwhelming choice as the preseason No. 1 team in both the AP Top 25 and the USA Today men's basketball coaches poll. But we have yet to see that team on the court.

Duke lost to Kansas in its third game of the season, but the Blue Devils' three highest-rated freshmen from the No. 1 recruiting class in the country did not play because of injuries. Two of the three—Jayson Tatum and Marques Bolden, the nation's No. 4 and No. 8 overall recruits, respectively—finally got on the court for the Dec. 3 rout of overmatched Maine.

However, Grayson Allen and freshman Frank Johnson, the Blue Devils' starting backcourt for the previous four games, missed the Maine game with foot injuries. Furthermore, freshman Harry Giles, Duke's highest-rated recruit at No. 2 overall, has yet to play after having minor knee surgery before the season began. The initial prognosis was that he would be sidelined six weeks, and he participated in some warm-up drills prior to recent games, according to CBS Sports' Kyle Boone and Matt Norlander.

Everyone except Giles played in the Dec. 6 victory over Florida, and Tatum was particularly impressive. Bolden barely played, and we are still wondering when Giles will play. He will probably get game action before Christmas, though.

When everyone is healthy, it may take Mike Krzyzewski awhile to settle on a player rotation he likes, and it might take even longer for players to feel comfortable in their roles. We still don't even know whether Bolden or Giles will have the expected impact this season. Furthermore, some awfully talented individuals will have to be satisfied with coming off the bench when the entire roster is at Krzyzewski's disposal.

Allen, the top vote-getter on the preseason Associated Press All-American team, has looked like the third- or fourth-best player on the team so far, but he wouldn't be taken out of the starting lineup, would he? Luke Kennard seemed destined for a backup role this season, but he has been the Blue Devils' best player. Other teams trying to work in freshmen have already sorted through these concerns.

When all the health and playing-time issues are resolved, which may not be until January, Duke will be Duke. That's when the team voted No. 1 in the preseason will resemble a No. 1 team. And it could be scary.

Is This the Best Group of Freshmen Ever?

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This question is asked nearly every year because the next group of newcomers always seems to be better than the one before.

Kentucky in 2012 and Duke in 2015 proved that teams relying on freshmen as their key players can win national championships these days. The caliber of talent among the first-year players now plays a vital role in determining the national powers.

The 2013-14 freshman class that featured Andrew Wiggins, Jabari Parker, Joel Embiid, Aaron Gordon and Julius Randle was awfully good. The 2007-08 class that included Derrick Rose, Kevin Love, Michael Beasley, O.J. Mayo and DeAndre Jordan had a major impact in their only college seasons too.

This season's group of freshmen may be better than either of those.

DraftExpress projects that the top eight picks of the 2017 NBA draft and 14 of the first 17 selections will be current freshmen. Few have been disappointments, and most are stars.

De'Aaron Fox (15.9 PPG, 7.8 APG) is the centerpiece of an outstanding Kentucky team whose leading scorer is another freshman, Malik Monk (19.9 PPG).

Lonzo Ball and T.J. Leaf have elevated UCLA to Top Five status.

Washington's Markelle Fultz (22.7 PPG, 48.1 percent three-point shooting, 6.6 APG, 6.7 RPG) is putting up remarkable numbers.

Jonathan Isaac (15.1 PPG, 7.3 RPG) is a big reason Florida State is 8-1, although he has missed the past two games with a hip injury.

Lauri Markkanen leads Arizona in both scoring (17.8 PPG) and rebounding (7.6 RPG).

Dennis Smith Jr. is averaging 18.3 points for 6-2 North Carolina State.

Miles Bridges leads Michigan State in scoring (16.6 PPG) and rebounding (8.8 RPG), although he is sidelined with an ankle injury.

Frank Jackson is averaging 15.5 points as a starter for Duke, and we have not even had a decent look at Duke's three most prized recruits—Jayson Tatum, Marques Bolden and Harry Giles.

Josh Jackson, the No. 1 recruit, barely rates consideration, but he is Kansas' second-leading scorer at 14.0 points per game.

It leads to some provocative questions.

Who is the best point guard of the bunch, with Ball, Fox and Fultz all among the best in the nation at that position?

Will a freshman be the No. 1 overall pick in the 2017 NBA draft, with Fultz, Smith, Jackson, Tatum, Monk and Ball among those in contention?

Does any freshman have a chance to be national player of the year, as Kevin Durant was in 2006-07 and Anthony Davis was in 2011-12? The answer is a definite yes.

The 2016-17 season must play out before we proclaim this the best freshman class ever, but the early-season results suggest that it is.

Will Gonzaga and Saint Mary's Both Be Unbeaten When They Meet?

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Gonzaga and Saint Mary's have been the West Coast Conference's chief torch-bearers for years, and the games against each other have become major events. This season, their first meeting Jan. 14 in Spokane, Washington, could be a game of considerable national importance.

Gonzaga (8-0) is ranked No. 8 this week, and Saint Mary's (6-0) is No. 12, its highest ranking ever. Based on the teams' schedules leading up to their matchup, it's very possible both teams could be undefeated and ranked in the Top 10 when they meet.

All five of the Gaels' remaining nonconference games are at home against unranked opponents, and their toughest conference game before facing Gonzaga is a game against BYU at home, where the Gaels have won 23 of their last 24 games.

Coach Randy Bennett said this is "potentially" his best team ever. He has all five starters back from a team that beat Gonzaga twice last season, and his top scorer this season is a player (6'11" center Jock Landale) who came off the bench last year. The Gaels are second in the nation in assist-to-turnover ratio at 2.22, and are an excellent outside shooting team, hitting 40 percent of their long-range shots.

Gonzaga has already beaten Florida, Iowa State and Arizona, and its biggest challenge before the game against Saint Mary's is a road game against Tennessee. The addition of transfers Nigel Williams-Goss and Jordan Mathews as well as the return of center Przemek Karnowski, who missed most of last season with a back injury, have elevated the Bulldogs a notch.

It is possible Gonzaga and Saint Mary's will be the only two remaining Division I unbeaten teams when they face off Jan. 14.

Will Northwestern Finally Make It to the NCAA Tournament This Season?

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Only five teams that have been NCAA Division I members since its formation prior to the 1948-49 season have never played in the NCAA tournament, which began in 1939: Northwestern, The Citadel, Army, William & Mary and St. Francis of Brooklyn. 

Northwestern is the only one of those five that plays in a power conference. The Wildcats came close to reaching the Big Dance a few times recently, and last season, they finished ninth in the Big Ten when seven conference teams got NCAA bids.

This could be the season. The Wildcats are 6-2, including a 19-point win over Texas. Their only losses were by two points on the road against an unbeaten Butler team ranked No. 16 and by four points on a neutral court against an undefeated Notre Dame team ranked 23rd.

Northwestern had a chance to win both games and would be sitting pretty if it had.

Against Butler, the Wildcats had the ball in a tie game when their best player, Bryant McIntosh, committed a turnover with 30 seconds left. Butler's Kamar Baldwin then hit the game-winning shot with 0.4 of a second remaining. 

The Wildcats held a one-point lead on Notre Dame before the Irish's Mike Farrell converted a three-point play with 14 seconds left.

Sophomore Vic Law (16.1 PPG, 54.1 percent three-point shooting) is playing the way everyone expected when he arrived at Northwestern as a highly touted recruit, and junior Scottie Lindsey (15.5 PPG, 46.5 percent three-point shooting) has improved significantly from last season. Meanwhile, McIntosh's numbers have slipped a bit from last season. He is making just 29.1 percent of his long-range shots, but you can expect his shooting to improve as conference play approaches.

Not everything is perfect. Starting center Dererk Pardon will miss about three weeks after having hand surgery on Dec. 1, according to the Chicago Tribune's Teddy Greenstein. But this team clearly has the potential to reach the NCAA tournament.

"It’s the elephant in the room," coach Chris Collins said just before the season started, according to USA Today's Scott Gleeson. "It's going to be a national story. It's the Cubs winning the World Series."

Who Is the Leading Candidate for Player of the Year?

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No player has established himself as the clear favorite in the race for national player of the year, which remains wide-open.

A number of players have put themselves in the conversation, though, with two players looking like the leading contenders at the moment. They will be mentioned last on this slide.

Duke's Grayson Allen, Oregon's Dillon Brooks and Cal's Ivan Rabb are among several players who figured to challenge for the top national award but have not done enough yet to justify inclusion. They still have time to join the competition, though.

Eleven have performed well enough to warrant consideration but don't rate as favorites. They are listed in ascending order.

Ohio forward Antonio Campbell: OK, a player in the Mid-American Conference might have no chance for a national award, but Campbell deserves mention since he is averaging 19.8 points, 11.0 rebounds and 1.8 blocks for a 5-1 team.

Maryland guard Melo Trimble: He is scoring 19.3 points per game, and his team is 8-1, but he is averaging more turnovers (3.3) than assists (2.8).

Washington guard Markelle Fultz: His numbers are outstanding (22.7 PPG, 6.7 RPG, 6.6 APG), but his team's 4-3 record is not.

Iowa State guard Monte Morris: Morris is asked to do everything for the Cyclones and will get credit if they challenge for the Big 12 title.

South Carolina guard Sindarius Thornwell: You will hear more about Thornwell (18.7 PPG, 6.7 RPG, 4.1 APG, 48.3 percent three-point shooting) if the Gamecocks stay unbeaten for a while.

Xavier guard Trevon Bluiett: His averages of 18.4 points and 6.3 rebounds will keep him in the discussion if the Musketeers remain high in the rankings.

Baylor forward Johnathan Motley: Motley is the key figure in Baylor's surprising rise.

Purdue forward Caleb Swanigan: People will pay more attention to his impressive numbers (16.2 PPG, 11.3 rebounds, 7-of-12 on three-pointers) if the Boilermakers rise in the rankings.

Kentucky guard De'Aaron Fox: He is averaging 15.9 points and 7.8 assists for a national title contender, but he is a poor outside shooter, and other players on the team also deserve consideration.

UCLA guard Lonzo Ball: He is credited with getting the Bruins up to No. 2 in the rankings. Ball's numbers across the board are outstanding, but his 9.3 assists per game and 3.5-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio stand out.

Duke guard Luke Kennard: There were questions about whether he would even be a starter this season, but he has been the Blue Devils' best player so far, averaging 20.4 points, 6.2 rebounds and 3.2 assists while hitting 52.2 percent of his field-goal attempts.

The two favorites have elevated themselves above the rest.

Villanova forward Josh Hart: He is the star of the nation's No. 1-ranked team, and his 17.6 points, 6.7 rebounds and 3.8 assists are numbers he is likely to maintain. He had 24 points in the Wildcats' toughest game, a road contest against Purdue, and he had a triple-double in the victory over St. Joseph's.

Kansas guard Frank Mason III: The 5'11" Mason has transformed himself from the solid, all-conference-type player he was last year as a junior to a national star this season. His statistics of 20.8 points per game, 4.6 rebounds, 5.3 assists and 55.3 percent three-point shooting only tell you part of the story.

Mason has been at his best in the biggest moments. He scored 30 points in the loss to Indiana, and 10 of those points came in the final 2:27 of regulation to push the game into overtime. He added 21 points, including the game-winning basket with 1.8 seconds left, in the two-point win over Duke.

If the voting for national player of the year were held today, Mason would, or should, win. 

Can Traditional Powers with Disappointing Starts Turn It Around?

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Michigan State, Connecticut, Texas and Georgetown seemed headed for disaster through the first three weeks, and some have more reason for optimism than others.

Michigan State was ranked No. 12 in the preseason poll and figured to challenge for the Big Ten title with the addition of a No. 3-ranked freshman class.

However, a 21-point loss to Kentucky, a 15-point loss to Baylor and a nine-point loss to an injured Duke team left the Spartans floundering a bit. Star freshman Miles Bridges will be sidelined for at least another week with an ankle injury, according to MLive.com's Kyle Austin, and the Spartans struggled to beat Oral Roberts by four points at home in their first game without him.

Tom Izzo's teams typically improve as the season progresses, and all of Michigan State's losses have been to ranked teams. Maybe the sky is not falling in East Lansing.

Connecticut seemed to be headed the wrong way in a hurry.

UConn was ranked 18th in the preseason Associated Press poll and was picked to finish a close second in the American Athletic Conference preseason poll.

But the Huskies' embarrassing season-opening nine-point loss at home to Wagner put an immediate damper on the season. Wagner has since gone 1-4, including losses to Massachusetts-Lowell and Rider.

UConn also owns losses to Oklahoma State, which finished 3-15 in the Big 12 last season, and Nebraska, which was 16-18 a year ago.

UConn's only wins in November were an 11-point victory over Division II Chaminade, a three-point victory over a Loyola Marymount team that went 6-12 in the West Coast Conference last season and a two-point home victory over Patriot League member Boston University.

As Don Amore of the Hartford Courant noted after the win over Boston University, "The circumstances of the season have changed the Huskies. Victories that could once have been taken for granted must be wrested away from the opponent, any opponent, by any means."

The Huskies will be shorthanded the rest of the season because of health issues. Alterique Gilbert suffered a torn labrum that ended his season, according to Norlander, and Terry Larrier tore his ACL, per Amore. Freshman forward Mamadou Diarra has decided to redshirt because of a knee condition called patellofemoral syndrome, as Amore reported.

Then, with no apparent warning, the Huskies rallied for a confidence-boosting 52-50 victory over Syracuse in Madison Square Garden on Dec. 5 to even their record at 4-4. UConn trailed by 12 points with 13:22 left and had scored just 26 points to that point. However, it came back and eventually won when Christian Vital hit two free throws with 2.2 seconds left.

The game may have exposed the shortcomings of Syracuse, which is just 5-3 and could have been included on this list as well.

Texas hit rock bottom when it lost at home to Texas-Arlington. The Mavericks were picked to win the Sun Belt Conference, but a Big 12 team ranked No. 21 in the Associated Press preseason poll is not supposed to lose at home to a Sun Belt team. 

It was the third loss in a row for the Longhorns, who had lost by 19 to unranked Northwestern and by 14 to unranked Colorado on neutral courts. The 53-50 road loss to Michigan on Dec. 6 that dropped Texas' record to 4-4 was somewhat encouraging.

The Longhorns rely heavily on freshmen who were part of a recruiting class that was ranked No. 5 in the nation. Shaka Smart should get more out of his young team as the season progresses, but the Longhorns have a long way to go.

Georgetown head coach John Thompson III needed to get off to a good start after last season's 15-18 disappointment. It didn't happen. The Hoyas lost four of their first six games, including an inexplicable home loss to Arkansas State. Hoya students chanted "Fire Thompson" near the end of the game, according to the Washington Post's Dan Steinberg.

The Hoyas have won three in a row to get their record to 5-4, which might ease some concerns. But beating Elon by just three points at home on Dec. 4 suggests Georgetown's woes may not be over.

Which Team Will Be the Surprise of the Season?

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TCU, in Jamie Dixon's first season as coach, is undefeated and on the cusp of a Top 25 ranking after going 2-16 in the Big 12 last season. And unbeaten South Carolina used thrashings of Michigan and Syracuse to get national attention, lifting the Gamecocks from unranked to their current No. 19 ranking.

However, serious doubts remain about whether either team can maintain its high standing through conference play. Neither TCU nor South Carolina has stunned the college basketball world as much as Baylor, which has skyrocketed up the rankings and might be able to stay there.

Sixty-three teams received votes in either the AP Top 25 or the USA Today preseason poll. Baylor was not one of them.

Three Ivy League schools—Princeton, Harvard and Yale—got votes. So did Nevada, Chattanooga, Monmouth, Davidson, Kansas State and Valparaiso. Not Baylor, which got exactly zero votes.

However, less than four weeks into the season, Baylor sits at No. 4 in the AP Top 25 rankings and even got six first-place votes.

Baylor announced its presence by beating then-No. 4 Oregon by 17 points in the Bears' second game. That result has an asterisk beside it because Dillon Brooks, a preseason first-team All-American, did not play for Oregon because of a foot injury.

Baylor then knocked off then-No. 24 Michigan State by 15 points, but the struggling Spartans had already lost to Kentucky by 21 points, taking some of the luster off Baylor's victory.

When the Bears beat then-No. 10 Louisville in the Bahamas, the doubters began to vanish. Baylor confirmed its status as a Final Four contender when it beat a third Top 10 team, No. 7 Xavier, by 15 points on Dec. 3.

The play of Johnathan Motley and the Bears' zone defense have raised Baylor to the Top Five. Baylor has limited opponents to 38.1 percent shooting and 59.0 points per game, with the latter ranking 12th in the country even though four of Baylor's opponents were ranked in the Top 25 when the Bears played them.

Can the Bears keep it up, perhaps even give Kansas a run for the Big 12 title?

Well, the wins over Xavier and Oregon came in front of the Bears' home crowd, and the victories over Michigan State and Louisville occurred in the Bahamas. So Baylor has not played in any environment as terrorizing as Kansas' Allen Fieldhouse. But with the Jayhawks being the only apparent powerhouse in the conference this season, Baylor has every reason to believe it can finish in the top two or three in the Big 12 and remain in the Top 10 of the rankings.

Can Villanova Win a Second Straight National Title?

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Defending national champion Villanova remains a bit of a mystery this season. The Wildcats have played only one ranked team and did well to knock off a solid Purdue team on the road, albeit by just three points.

However, none of Villanova's other opponents so far have been good enough to provide a test. Although the Wildcats return starters Josh Hart, Kris Jenkins and Jalen Brunson from the team that beat North Carolina in the national championship game last season, it remains to be seen how the absence of Ryan Arcidiacono, a four-year starter at point guard, will affect the team when things get tight. The Wildcats survived against Purdue, but they nearly let an 11-point, second-half lead slip away. They did not blow away La Salle like they should have either, leading by just four points with 1:04 left before winning by 10.

Villanova properly owns the No. 1 ranking this week, but it is by no means an indomitable team.

A Dec. 10 game against No. 23 Notre Dame in Newark, New Jersey, will tell us a little more about the Wildcats, but they should still be unbeaten when they face Creighton in Omaha, Nebraska, in a Big East game on Dec. 31. That contest is followed four days later by a conference game against Butler in Indianapolis. That two-game road swing will indicate whether this Villanova team has the stuff to win a second straight national championship, something that has not been accomplished since Duke won consecutive titles in 1991 and 1992.

To achieve its feat, Duke had to upset No. 1-ranked and unbeaten UNLV in the 1991 semifinals and needed Christian Laettner's buzzer-beating basket to beat Kentucky in the 1992 Elite Eight. Villanova has not shown that it is as good as that 1992 Duke squad, which featured Laettner, Grant Hill and Bobby Hurley.

Statistics are accurate through games played Dec. 6. Recruiting rankings courtesy of Scout.