Teams on Upset Alert in 2016-17 College Football Bowl Season
The ultimate goal of every college football bowl game is to put together a matchup that's both entertaining and competitive. No one associated with these contests wants to see blowouts without any drama, and thankfully organizers are usually able to pair up comparable teams in hopes of creating interesting games.
But that doesn't mean the oddsmakers have to feel the same way.
Of the 40 bowl games on tap over the next few weeks, 11 of them feature point spreads (per OddsShark) of at least a touchdown. Eight of them have double-figure spreads, which in the eyes of the folks in Vegas makes them strong candidates to be laughers.
Or they could end up producing significant upsets if things go the underdogs' way. It all depends on how seriously each team takes the game and whether those teams are properly motivated to play in what in many cases is a meaningless exhibition.
From the games with the largest spreads we've picked out heavy favorites who should be most concerned about getting upset. Check them out and then give us your thoughts in the comments section.
Alabama
1 of 7
Game: Peach Bowl, Dec. 31
Opponent: Washington
Line: Alabama -14
Washington didn't qualify for the playoffs by default. It was the selection committee's choice as the fourth-best team in the country. Sure, that means the Huskies earned the right to potentially get blown out by defending national champion Alabama, but it also means they're a pretty good team.
Yet the spread on this national semifinal is the largest of any bowl game along with the Arizona Bowl, where Air Force is a two-touchdown favorite over South Alabama. So, what gives?
Mostly, this number is due to Alabama's season-long dominance, its playoff experience and a 25-game win streak. Line the Crimson Tide up against most other teams that had a shot at the semifinals and the spread probably would have been bigger.
Washington didn't win 12 games by accident. It navigated a solid Pac-12 Conference with only one blemish and crushed a very good Colorado team in the league title game. Alabama deserves to be a heavy favorite, but assuming it has already secured a spot in the championship game would be foolish.
Army
2 of 7
Game: Heart of Dallas Bowl, Dec. 27
Opponent: North Texas
Line: Army -9.5
Army's first bowl appearance since 2010 is actually a rematch of a regular-season game, as the Black Knights hosted North Texas in October. And lost 35-18.
Now the game is being held in Dallas, right around the corner from North Texas' campus, yet Army is favored by a fair margin. It's not as big as the previous game's spread, in which OddsShark listed Army as a 17.5-point favorite.
North Texas is one of two 5-7 teams that landed bowl bids due to a lack of six-win qualifiers and because its APR score was among the highest in FBS. The Mean Green, who were 2-10 last season, lost four of five after winning at Army and last time out allowed 384 rushing yards to UTEP on Nov. 26. Army ranks second in FBS in rushing, gaining 328.9 yards per game.
But North Texas has already shown it can handle the Black Knights, and it will not only have that game film to study but also that of Saturday's Army-Navy game. While North Texas has plenty of time to prepare for the bowl, Army won't be as rested and if someone gets hurt against Navy, it could have to make adjustments.
BYU
3 of 7
Game: Poinsettia Bowl, Dec. 21
Opponent: Wyoming
Line: BYU -7.5
As an independent program that doesn't have the benefit of conference bowl affiliations, BYU has sought to prearrange bowl bids. The Cougars already know they'll be playing in the Hawaii Bowl in 2019 if they're eligible, and once they got to six wins in mid-November, their Poinsettia Bowl berth was locked up.
It wasn't until Sunday that BYU learned its opponent would be Wyoming, though. The Cowboys got that slot after winning the Mountain West Conference's Mountain Division before losing to San Diego State in the league final. It's their first bowl appearance since 2011.
Wyoming sports a win over Boise State, which is the only team BYU has lost to since September, and had to play SDSU twice in the final three weeks of the season. The Cougars faced a slew of Power Five conference teams during the first half of the season, but their last four opponents were a combined 15-32, with six of those wins coming from FCS Southern Utah.
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Colorado State
4 of 7
Game: Famous Idaho Potato Bowl, Dec. 22
Opponent: Idaho
Line: Colorado State -13
Colorado State understands what it's like to play second fiddle to another team in its own state. The Rams have a strong fanbase though it pales in comparison to Colorado, so they can empathize with Idaho being less popular than Boise State.
The Rams also know playing in Boise can be difficult when the other team has most of the fans, losing to Boise State there in October, and they're likely to be underdogs in the attendance department in the Potato Bowl. It's Idaho's first bowl appearance since 2009 and third in program history. Those other two also were in Boise, with the 2009 game against Bowling Green drawing more than 26,000 fans.
Attendance for the game has been under 22,000 each of the past three years, according to the Idaho Statesmen.
Idaho hasn't drawn more than 13,392 fans for any of its home games in the Kibbie Dome this season, but Boise-based Vandals fans figure to be more willing to come out for a game in town than make the 300-mile drive up to Moscow for a regular-season affair.
Mississippi State
5 of 7
Game: St. Petersburg Bowl, Dec. 26
Opponent: Miami (Ohio)
Line: Mississippi State -11.5
Mississippi State didn't just prevent rival Ole Miss from going to a bowl game when it beat the Rebels last month in the Egg Bowl, but it also got the Bulldogs into position to snag a bowl spot despite being 5-7. It was a nice way to finish off a rebuilding year that saw them start 2-5 and lose their opener at home to South Alabama.
A losing record hasn't prevented the oddsmakers from installing MSU as a significant favorite in its bowl game, apparently putting more stock in MSU's status as a power-conference team than the fact it's playing an opponent that hasn't lost since early October.
Miami (Ohio) began 0-6 and that included a loss to an FCS school. Then the Redhawks switched quarterbacks, turning to sophomore Gus Ragland, and won six in a row to become the first team to reach a bowl after losing its first six games. And two of those wins were over bowl-bound schools, albeit Mid-American Conference teams.
MSU opened the year losing to a non-power team. What's to say it couldn't happen again?
South Florida
6 of 7
Game: Birmingham Bowl, Dec. 29
Opponent: South Carolina
Line: South Florida -11
Even before coach Willie Taggart left to take the Oregon job, South Florida being such a sizable favorite against an SEC school seemed sketchy. The line is likely to drop over the next two weeks. For now we're still classifying this as a potential upset, and Taggart's departure is only part of the reason.
The Bulls went 10-2 this season, their best record in program history, but because they didn't win the American Athletic Conference's East Division, they had no shot at a New Year's Six bowl bid. The league's bowl affiliations aren't particularly great, but with four games in Florida they could have ended up playing close to home and enabling fans to watch them nearby.
Instead, South Florida was shipped to Birmingham, Alabama. Hard to get excited about that.
South Carolina should be more motivated for this game since it comes in coach Will Muschamp's first season and after the Gamecocks went 3-9 last season. November losses to Clemson and Florida notwithstanding, South Carolina played well the second half of the year and its young team could use a strong performance against South Florida as a springboard into the offseason.
Temple
7 of 7
Game: Military Bowl, Dec. 27
Opponent: Wake Forest
Line: Temple -12.5
If the Twitter anger directed toward the wrong Matt Rhule is any indication, Temple fans aren't too thrilled about their coach leaving to take over Baylor. The Owls players share that sentiment, since Rhule was hired just days after leading them to the American Athletic Conference championship, though they have been more composed about the news.
By the time the Military Bowl comes around, it will have been more than two weeks since Rhule left. But when Temple takes the field in Annapolis, Maryland—the same field it beat Navy on for the AAC title—their memories of Rhule might resurface. And don't think Wake Forest isn't hoping to take advantage of that.
The Demon Deacons, who went 6-6 this season, are bowling for the first time since 2011. They sort of backed into the game, though, losing five of six after a 5-1 start, but will be looking at the Military Bowl as a way to start over and cap off a successful year.
All recruiting information courtesy of Scout.com, unless otherwise noted. All statistics provided by CFBStats, unless otherwise noted.
Follow Brian J. Pedersen on Twitter at @realBJP.
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