Moore Hoops: Baylor Is College Basketball's Biggest Early-Season Surprise

Baylor is one of the best stories in college basketball based on expectations and results so far this season. The Bears have wins over three teams ranked in the preseason top 13 (Oregon, Michigan State and Louisville), and thus have risen to No. 9 in the most recent Associated Press poll.

Not only was Baylor unranked coming into the year, Scott Drew’s club did not appear on one ballot* in either poll. There were 25 other teams receiving votes in the AP poll and 31 additional teams receiving votes in the coaches poll, so the Bears weren’t just out of the top 25, they were outside of the top 56.

*I did not have a vote in the AP poll, but Baylor was No. 18 on my preseason Bleacher Report ballot. Consider chest puffed.

This is a program that has been to three straight NCAA tournaments—a top-six seed each of the last three years—and also made two Elite Eights under Drew.

So the lack of respect was a little ridiculous.

"I think people are sleeping," junior power forward Johnathan Motley told B/R at Big 12 media day. "But at the end of the year, we’ll find out what happens."

Or, as it turns out, three weeks into the season...

The Bears are 7-0 with a resume that is more impressive than anyone in America, which is one reason an AP voter this week had them No. 1 on his ballot. 

Baylor is also one of the few teams this early in the season that seems to have found its identity on both ends. This team has the potential to be Drew's best defensive club with the ability to mix and match zone and man-to-man on the fly, as he did in a 22-point comeback win over Louisville, and then play inside-out offensively through a future NBA big man in Motley. 

Drew built his program in the early years on the strength of guard play, but his recent success has been on the backs of his big men. Baylor has had six frontcourt players drafted over the last seven years, and that number would be seven if not for former center Isaiah Austin getting diagnosed with Marfan syndrome right before the 2014 draft.

While many other programs are embracing small ball, Drew has gone the other way—especially this season with a front line that includes 7'0" Jo Lual-Acuil, 6'9" Motley and 6'5" wing Ishmail Wainright, a tank at 235 pounds who would play a small-ball 4 for most teams.

"The zone allows us to be a taller team," Drew said. "To play man, sometimes it gets tough tracking people down in space when you’re bigger and taller, getting around screens and guarding ball screens. That’s one nice thing about the zone is it’s allowed us to play bigger."

Charles Krupa/Associated Press

Part of being off the preseason radar had to do with some turnover on the roster. Baylor graduated Taurean Prince, a lottery pick, and Rico Gathers, the school’s all-time leading rebounder, along with starting point guard Lester Medford.

The Bears have arguably improved at all three spots with the emergence of Motley—he belongs on the way-too-early All-American team—plus Lual-Acuil and Miami transfer point guard Manu Lecomte.

Gathers was a monster on the boards, but he was an awkward fit in Baylor’s zone because of his lack of length and shot-blocking ability. Lual-Acuil is the best shot-blocker Drew has had since Ekpe Udoh took the Bears to the Elite Eight in 2009-10. He had to sit out last season because of a heart ailment, which Drew said was a blessing in disguise because it allowed him to add weight and learn the system. 

The big fella has been a huge weapon in the middle of the zone, swatting 4.1 shots per game. The early numbers show it’s harder to score against Baylor’s defense at the rim, and the team is actually performing better on the defensive glass.

	FG% at rim	Block rate	D. Reb.%
2015-16	61.6	11.0	71.2
2016-17	59.3	15.6	72.7

Prince, the star last season, was a weapon as a stretch power forward—his three-and-D potential got him drafted 12th by the Utah Jazz before he was traded to the Atlanta Hawks—but he was limited as a back-to-the-basket scorer. If his shot was off, his impact was limited. Motley has been so consistent—averaging 16.2 points per game—because Drew is able to move him all over the floor.

Louisville, for instance, tried to limit Motley’s touches by fronting him in the post.

Baylor countered by allowing Motley to roam against Louisville's zone and involving him in ball screens for pick-and-pop opportunities or simply getting him touches farther out from the basket, where he could use his face-up game and quickness to beat Louisville’s lanky bigs.

"One of his best characteristics is his versatility," Drew said. "He can score around the basket, he can drive it, but he also can shoot it, so the big thing for us is to find out when people are playing man where his advantage is. The other thing is he’s gotten better at finding the open person when he draws a lot of attention. Now he’s creating offense for his teammates."

Motley has 12 assists in his last five games, and those numbers would be even more impressive if they included hockey assists (the pass that leads to the assist). The Cardinals tried to bring double-teams and he made them pay.

Lecomte is the one piece that preseason prognosticators were really sleeping on. At Miami, he was a microwave man off the bench who once scored 23 points in a win at Duke. He never put up assist numbers at Miami—1.8 per game as a sophomore—but he wanted the chance to run his own team instead of playing the role of secondary ball-handler. He’s already been an excellent facilitator for the Bears, averaging 5.3 assists per game.

Tony Gutierrez/Associated Press

Lecomte is also a knockdown shooter—he was a 43.4 percent three-point shooter in two years at Miami—and he’s slumping right now with his jumper, but the Bears have no reason to worry there.

"That’s the one thing about early numbers," Drew said. "We know that number is going to improve. There’s not a big enough sample size."

Drew also has the luxury of riding with someone else when his stars are slumping. Not many teams have the offensive juice off the bench to pull off a comeback against a team like Louisville when the starters aren’t getting it done. But Baylor made its second-half surge against Louisville with Lecomte, third-leading scorer Al Freeman and Lual-Acuil on the bench. Reserves King McClure, Terry Maston and Jake Lindsey accounted for 33 second-half points.

Several television shots of Baylor’s bench during that time saw the three starters cheering, particularly Lecomte after Lindsey made back-to-back steals and layups that gave Baylor the lead.

"It was genuine," Drew said. "It wasn’t fake. That speaks to a guy’s character. If you’re about yourself, it’s tough to hide it."

This is the makeup of a team that should have some staying power in the top 10. Some will question the Bears because of their lack of recent tournament success, but past tournament performance is not the end-all-be-all determinant of future success. Villanova, a loser in the round of 32 in back-to-back years before winning a title, has taught us that.

Nearly three weeks in, Baylor looks like one of the most complete teams in the country with another chance to strengthen its resume on Saturday when No. 7 Xavier comes to Waco. And in four months, the Bears could make a lot of people look foolish for leaving them off their preseason ballots. 

Moore Hoop Thoughts

1. KU’s Josh Jackson Is Thriving in Small-Ball Lineups

Jamie Squire/Getty Images

Kansas freshman wing Josh Jackson did not anticipate playing power forward this season, but the combination of a struggling frontcourt and legitimate perimeter depth has forced coach Bill Self’s hand.

Last week at the CBE tournament in Kansas City, where Jackson won MVP honors, he started settling in to his role. Jackson has not shot the ball well—9-of-28 on jump shots by my count—but he’s constantly in attack mode off the bounce and benefits from the cross-matches that playing power forward presents.

"It’s actually a lot easier than I thought it would be," Jackson said last week. "When I’m out there playing the 4, it’s not like I’m playing with my back to the basket. I’m still out there playing as if I was a guard. Just that lineup is so versatile and hard to guard. If we just move the ball, it makes the game so much easier."

The KU offense definitely looks more potent by the game as Frank Mason, Devonte' Graham and Jackson get used to playing alongside each other. Jackson makes the game easier for those two guards because of his playmaking ability and vice versa.

Self has never had a wing like Jackson who can handle the ball and pass, and that’s another reason he’s been open to embracing more of a perimeter-oriented attack. The small-ball lineups open up more driving lanes, and that’s scary considering how good Mason, Graham and Jackson are in space.

"He’s definitely unique from guys we've had in the past, but it's not unique trying to put him in different spots," Self said. "You want to try to post him a little bit and do some things, but the bottom line is he's just a guard. You play him just like Devonte'."

And that’s whether he’s at power forward, small forward, shooting guard or point guard. Jackson has played all four positions already.

2. Hooray for The Return of The Polish Passer

Gonzaga senior Przemek Karnowski is back after missing a majority of last season with a bad back, and his comeback means the return of the best beard in college basketball and the sweetest passes from the post.

Karnowski is an immovable force when he gets on the block, and that typically leads to double-teams. For years, Karnowski has thrown his share of no-look and behind-the-back passes in practice to the chagrin of Gonzaga coach Mark Few. He unleashed a few beauties two years ago in the NCAA tournament and he’s been let loose as a senior.

Please double-team this man so we can see more of this: 

3. Thanksgiving Tournaments Rock

The Thanksgiving week has become one of my favorites of the college basketball season. The holiday tournaments are a chance to see legit teams compete and the games happen throughout the day. It’s like the NCAA tournament but with turkey.

Now it is a bummer to see some of the empty arenas, and I’m not sure what the solution there is other than to move every tournament to Maui or the Bahamas. Unfortunately, there’s a hesitancy for many programs to play difficult road games early on, and these tournaments provide an RPI booster without the risk of a road game. It’s a win-win.

Thanksgiving is already the best holiday because it includes delicious food, relaxing on the couch is encouraged and no gift shopping. I would advise sports fans to ditch the tradition of watching football—are the games ever really that good?—and make basketball part of your glorious Thursday feast, as we do in the Moore household.

Once you add hoops to the equation, it makes all other holidays a 16 seed against Turkey Day.

C.J. Moore covers college basketball and football for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @CJMooreBR.