The Most Shocking Results So Far in the 2016-17 Season
Georgetown has suffered a lot of unforgivable upsets in the past decade, but that didn't stop the Hoyas from losing at home to Arkansas State in the most shocking result of the first 15 days of the 2016-17 men's college basketball season.
The Hoyas weren't the only current or former Big East team embarrassed to be on this list. Boston College had an ugly loss to Nicholls State, and Connecticut has already suffered a pair of completely unexpected losses.
One of the best things about the NCAA tournament is that anything can happen. However, that insanity isn't exclusive to March. Just about every night of the regular season, you can scroll through the final scores and find at least one result that leaves you scratching your head, saying "They lost to whom?!"
Using predictions from kenpom.com as a guide, we've pinpointed the most mind-blowing upsets of the season thus far. They are ranked on the following slides in ascending order of how much sleep we lost while trying to figure out what in the world happened.
Honorable Mentions
1 of 10
Holy Cross 63, Harvard 52 (Nov. 22)
Fresh off losses to South Carolina and Syracuse by a combined margin of 76 points, Holy Cross somehow managed to finish plus-12 in turnover margin in a 61-possession win over Harvard. Playing without stud freshman Bryce Aiken, the Crimson couldn't get anything going.
Auburn 67, Texas Tech 65 (Nov. 22)
Texas Tech played 10 guys—six seniors and four juniors. Auburn started three freshmen and two sophomores. But youth prevailed as Mustapha Heron and Danjel Purifoy led the Tigers to arguably their third-best win of the Bruce Pearl era. They followed it up with a 25-point loss to Purdue—thanks to the Boilermakers shooting 17-of-26 from three-point range—but Auburn could be a legitimate candidate for a top-five spot in the SEC.
Bucknell 75, Vanderbilt 72 (Nov. 21)
The Bryce Drew era at Vanderbilt hasn't gotten out to a great start. The Commodores were blown out by Marquette on opening night and were shocked at home by Bucknell 10 days later. The scary thing is Vandy played well. Matthew Fisher-Davis led all scorers with 23 points. Luke Kornet had 19 more. They committed just eight turnovers. They simply got outplayed by a team that lost by 20 to Wake Forest and lost by 26 to Butler.
Abilene Christian 65, New Hampshire 57 (Nov. 17)
Three days after a statement road win over Temple, New Hampshire got run out of its own gym by an Abilene Christian team that hadn't done much of anything since becoming a D-I program. In retrospect, this one wasn't surprising at all. ACU played well in an eight-point loss at Oklahoma and New Hampshire lost 100-41 to West Virginia. At the time, though, UNH was supposed to win comfortably.
Furman 84, UAB 74 (Nov. 14)
Furman opened its season with a two-point loss to Presbyterian and UAB is one of the most veteran teams in the country. But experience only goes so far when the opposition shoots 15-of-24 (62.5 percent) from three-point range.
9. Nicholls State over Boston College
2 of 10
KenPom.com Prediction: Boston College 74-61 (88 percent chance to win)
Result: Nicholls State 79-73
It wasn't that long ago that Boston College was a regular in the NCAA tournament, but it has been a good five or six years since we could reasonably expect anything good from this team. Aside from shockingly ending Syracuse's perfect season February 2014, it's hard to remember the last time the Eagles were in the news for an impressive win.
Still, losing a home game to Nicholls State is downright embarrassing for this program.
Since beating LSU and Tulane in November 2010—neither of which finished .500 or better that year—the Colonels entered this season with precisely one nonconference win over a KenPom.com Top 300 team. It was a three-point, neutral-court win over No. 248 Hampton last year.
They played eight nonconference games against KenPom.com Top 200 teams last year and lost them by an average margin of 30.6 points. And they are 0-3 against D-I teams since shocking Boston College on opening night.
What's most bizarre about the result is that Boston College shot 50.0 percent (9-of-18) from three-point range, while Nicholls State only shot 27.8 percent. But against a team that had been one of the worst in the nation in turnover percentage and rebounding margin over the past two seasons, Boston College was minus-six in turnover margin and dead even on the glass at 35 rebounds apiece.
The Eagles have bounced back nicely with consecutive wins over Maryland-Eastern Shore, Stony Brook and Towson, but they are going to have a long, long winter of dealing with ACC opponents.
8. Northeastern over Connecticut
3 of 10
KenPom.com Prediction: Connecticut 74-61 (88 percent chance to win)
Result: Northeastern 64-61
Even though Wagner had already upset Connecticut three days before this game, its loss to Northeastern stands as one of the most surprising results thus far in the 2016-17 season.
This was supposed to be the game where the Huskies emphatically right the ship. They didn't take the season-opener seriously, but they'll come out with a vengeance for this one, we mistakenly believed. Instead, they quickly fell behind 15-4 and never fully regained control.
Former Duke and Florida transfer Alex Murphy was everywhere, finishing with 15 rebounds, nine points, three steals and three assists. He did also commit six turnovers and missed eight shots to help keep Connecticut from getting blown out of its own gym, but the favored Huskies did little to help themselves.
UConn shot 23.8 percent from three-point range and 46.2 percent from the free-throw line in the three-point loss. Amida Brimah blocked eight shots. Alterique Gilbert had four steals. But none of it really mattered since the Huskies couldn't put the ball in the hoop.
For a second straight game, Rodney Purvis was of little to no help. The senior was much better in Maui, but he had five made buckets and five turnovers in Connecticut's first two losses. We never would have ranked the Huskies in the preseason if we had known Purvis would struggle like that in his new role as team leader.
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7. Prairie View A&M over Fresno State
4 of 10
KenPom.com Prediction: Fresno State 79-65 (89 percent chance to win)
Result: Prairie View A&M 84-78
Fresno State just had one of its best seasons in school history. The Bulldogs went 25-10, won the Mountain West Conference tournament and went to the NCAA tournament for the first time since 2001.
Of their five leading scorers, three graduated, one (Torren Jones) was dismissed from the team and the fifth (Karachi Edo) is ineligible for the fall semester. As such, a decrease in competitiveness was to be expected.
A home loss to Prairie View A&M, though?
That's unforgivable.
PVAM lost 20 of its first 21 games last season. It played nine of those games against teams in the KenPom.com Top 180, the closest of which was an 18-point loss. It was the sixth consecutive season in which the Panthers finished below .500.
But, out of nowhere, they became one of the country's most poised teams against Fresno State, shooting 26-of-31 from the free-throw line while winning the turnover battle by an 18-13 margin.
This wasn't some breakout performance for the Panthers. They bookended the win over Fresno State with a 20-point loss to Oregon State and a 38-point loss to Saint Mary's. Rather, it was a sign that this is going to be a rough year for the Bulldogs. Colorado transfer Jaron Hopkins has been a nice addition, but they need to find a lot of help for him before they can even think about competing in the MWC again.
6. Jacksonville State over Tulsa
5 of 10
KenPom.com Prediction: Tulsa 75-61 (90 percent chance to win)
Result: Jacksonville State 84-73
As with Fresno State, a significant drop-off was to be expected for Tulsa.
The Golden Hurricane lost seven of last year's eight leading scorers to graduation, leaving little more than Pat Birt and a bunch of question marks. JUCO transfer Jaleel Wheeler is currently the scoring leader, followed closely by Rutgers transfer Junior Etou, who has more than doubled the rate of points per 40 minutes that he posted with the Scarlet Knights. The one key player from last year who didn't graduate (Birt) is struggling mightily through the team's first four games.
But the Golden Hurricane should have been able to beat Jacksonville State on opening night.
The Gamecocks proceeded to lose their next three games, including getting blown out by both Missouri State and TCU. That's par for the course for a team that had not won a nonconference game against a KenPom.com Top 150 opponent since November 2008. But it didn't stop them from destroying Tulsa in the paint.
Jacksonville State made 21 of 31 (67.7 percent) two-point attempts, while Tulsa shot just 13 of 30 (43.3 percent) from inside the arc. The Gamecocks jumped ahead early and never looked back, leading by as many as 19 points late in the second half en route to a surprisingly easy victory.
Tulsa was annihilated by Wichita State in its next game, but is already starting to turn a corner. Wheeler didn't play in those first two games, but he has been key in wins over New Orleans and Oregon State.
However, as was the case two years ago when the Golden Hurricane lost to D-II SE Oklahoma State and had to hear about it for months, this was the type of loss that will haunt them all season long if they are able to get into the bubble conversation.
5. Yale over Washington
6 of 10
KenPom.com Prediction: Washington 79-70 (79 percent chance to win)
Result: Yale 98-90
To say the least, big things were not expected of the Huskies. We had them projected to finish 10th in the Pac-12 with the note that Markelle Fultz might be the country's best freshman but that he doesn't have much of a supporting cast.
It didn't take long for that talent gap to become apparent, as Fultz had 30 points, seven rebounds and six assists in the season-opener—only for Washington to lose by eight points to an Ivy League team that lost all five of its leading scorers from last season.
Even though the Huskies blocked 15 shots and shot 69.4 percent from inside the arc, they simply couldn't end offensive possessions for Yale. The Bulldogs had 21 offensive rebounds and only committed seven turnovers, averaging 1.31 points per possession. They scored 49 points in each half, but they haven't scored more than 40 in a single half since, averaging 0.98 points per possession against non-Washington opponents.
The Huskies proceeded to allow 88 points in too-close-for-comfort wins over Cal St. Fullerton and Long Beach State, so defense is clearly going to be a problem for this team all season.
(They'll be fun to watch, though, particularly in the two games against UCLA. You could set the over/under for those uptempo, defenseless games at 230.5, and I'd still consider taking the over.)
4. Fort Wayne over Indiana
7 of 10
KenPom.com Prediction: Indiana 85-75 (82 percent chance to win)
Result: Fort Wayne 71-68 (OT)
As far as kenpom.com's probabilities are concerned, Fort Wayne's chances of upsetting No. 3 Indiana were much better than most of the upsets on this list. The Mastodons had a better than 1-in-6 chance of beating the Hoosiers, as compared to the 1-in-50 chance Arkansas State had of beating Georgetown.
Regardless of what the percentages say, though, this was arguably the most shocking result of the first 15 days of the 2016-17 season.
IPFW entered the game with a 1-2 record against D-I opponents, beating UMass Lowell by 13 after getting soundly beaten by Arkansas and Illinois State. The Mastodons were shooting poorly from the free-throw line (63.6 percent) and had averaged 15.7 turnovers per game.
Against Indiana, though, they turned it over just eight times while recording 11 steals of their own. And they shrewdly avoided their free-throw shooting woes by only attempting seven shots from the charity stripe.
Bryson Scott, 6'1", had 18 points and 12 rebounds, while 6'5" John Konchar added 15 points and 11 rebounds. Indiana should have had a massive advantage in the paint, but that never transpired. The Hoosiers were only plus-four on the glass and shot 47.4 percent from inside the arc.
After beating Kansas in the season opener, Indiana was looking like the clear favorite to win the Big Ten and a serious threat to win the national championship. After losing to Fort Wayne, though, there may be questions about whether the Hoosiers can even beat their first-round opponent in March.
3. Wagner over Connecticut
8 of 10
KenPom.com Prediction: Connecticut 76-59 (94 percent chance to win)
Result: Wagner 67-58
Remember when Connecticut was ranked No. 16 in the country?
There were a couple of crazy results on the opening night of the season, but nothing quite like the Huskies losing a home game to Wagner.
The Seahawks are a respectable Northeast Conference team, but they hadn't come within nine points of beating a major-conference opponent since shocking 11-1 Pittsburgh back in December 2011. But they were the first team to benefit from what has been a nightmarish start for Connecticut.
Wagner didn't even play all that well in the upset. It shot 36.0 percent from three-point range and just 39.3 percent inside the arc. It lost the turnover battle and only out-rebounded the Huskies by a slim margin.
Connecticut simply didn't do anything to deserve the win, shooting even worse than the Seahawks did from everywhere on the court.
The worst part for the Huskies is that the two guys who did play well have since suffered injuries. Terry Larrier (19 points) and Alterique Gilbert (14 points) were the only ones to score in double figures. However, the former tore his ACL and is out for the season, and the latter dislocated his shoulder and hasn't touched the court in a week.
Well, maybe the actual worst part for the Huskies is that Wagner went on to lose its next two games to UMass Lowell and Fairfield. Even if Connecticut is able to eventually turn things around, this loss will remain one heck of a stain on this team's resume.
2. Lamar over Oregon State
9 of 10
KenPom.com Prediction: Oregon State 86-67 (95 percent chance to win)
Result: Lamar 63-60
In recent years, there haven't been many teams in the country worse than Lamar. Since upsetting Texas Tech in December 2008, the Cardinals had lost 47 consecutive games against teams in the KenPom.com Top 145. The average margin of defeat in those games was 20.0 points. Not one was decided by a one-possession margin, and only seven were decided by 10 points or fewer.
They went 11-19 last season, but four of those wins came against non-D-I opponents, while five others were over teams that finished the season ranked 326th or worse. Their best win was a road game against Liberty, and the Flames didn't win a single nonconference game against a D-I team.
Suffice it to say, expectations are low for Lamar. They're so low, in fact, that even against an Oregon State team that might be the worst in the Pac-12, the Cardinals were expected to lose by a 19-point margin.
What Pomeroy's algorithms couldn't project, though, was that Oregon State would commit 27 turnovers in the home loss. Steals had been one of the only redeeming qualities of Lamar's men's basketball team in recent years, but the Beavers made the Cardinals look like some hybrid of HAVOC and Press Virginia that can force turnovers on 37 percent of defensive possessions.
The whole team was stricken by the disease. Tres Tinkle "led" the way with five turnovers, but everyone who played at least 14 minutes committed at least three of them. Poor Drew Eubanks had the game of his life with 17 points, 18 rebounds and six blocked shots, but it was all for naught.
Two nights later in a 25-point loss to Nevada, Oregon State committed another 20 turnovers. A lot of teams lost great players from last season, but it's looking like no one will be missed more than the Beavers miss Gary Payton II.
1. Arkansas State over Georgetown
10 of 10
KenPom.com Prediction: Georgetown 87-65 (98 percent chance to win)
Result: Arkansas State 78-72
Like Lucy holding the football for Charlie Brown, at this point we only have ourselves to blame for trusting Georgetown to do anything other than suffer an unfathomable upset.
Since reaching the 2007 Final Four, the Hoyas have gone 3-6 in the NCAA tournament with five losses to double-digit seeds and no wins over teams seeded better than a No. 13. They didn't make the tourney last year, but they did lose nonconference home games to Radford, Monmouth and UNC Asheville.
With that in mind, it probably should have been business as usual when they trailed by 23 points late in the first half in the process of losing a home game to Arkansas State.
Devin Carter made as many three-pointers for the Red Wolves as Georgetown made as an entire team. The Hoyas couldn't buy a bucket, shooting three of 20 from downtown.
Worse yet, they were outworked on the glass by a much smaller team. Not one of the six players that logged at least a dozen minutes for Arkansas State is taller than 6'4", but they somehow out-rebounded Isaac Copeland, Jessie Goven and company by a 36-30 margin. The Red Wolves also made more two-point attempts and shot a higher percentage from inside the arc, which doesn't make a lick of sense.
Since then, Arkansas State has improved to 5-1, while Georgetown has fallen to 2-4, so it doesn't look quite as crazy in retrospect as it felt at the time. Regardless, it was the most unexpected result of the season thus far.
Stats are courtesy of KenPom.com and Sports-Reference.com. Recruiting information is courtesy of Scout.
Kerry Miller covers college basketball for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @kerrancejames.
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