Robert Whittaker vs. Derek Brunson: A Head-to-Toe Breakdown
UFC Fight Night 101 emanates from Australia this weekend, and it is headlined by a sensational middleweight matchup.
Originally slated for the event was former titleholder Luke Rockhold in a rematch against Ronaldo "Jacare" Souza. However, an injury to Rockhold forced a change atop the card, per Ken Pishna of MMAWeekly.com.
The co-main event was elevated. Now, rising middleweight contenders Derek Brunson (16-3) and Robert Whittaker (17-4) take the lead.
And the crowd is better off for it.
The two middleweights on the move now get a five-round bout to see who jumps into true title contention. Whittaker is on a five-fight winning streak with four coming since his move up to 185 pounds. Brunson matches his winning streak at five but has finished his last four by TKO.
UFC Fight Night 101 is not an event to skip with these two headlining. Onward to find out how the matchup breaks down and who walks out with an inside track to middleweight glory in 2017.
Striking
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It would be easy to give this category to Brunson. He has finished his last four fights by TKO, including toppling a noted striker in Uriah Hall. But finishes alone do not equate to an edge. It's not a direct correlation.
Brunson has good power and a growing striking skill set, but Whittaker is the more refined tactician in this area.
Whittaker is also the more active striker. Put their FightMetric numbers beside one another, and he lands 4.95 significant strikes per minute to Brunson's 2.94. Also noteworthy, Whittaker's better at defending oncoming strikes than Brunson.
Whittaker's overall striking game is a bit more refined than Brunson's, which will give him better options while standing. If Brunson wants to keep the fight on the feet, Whittaker may take the reins and lead the fight. He's exceptional at picking his spots to be the aggressor and landing brilliant combinations.
Brunson's power is an equalizer only if he can gain Whittaker's respect.
Edge: Whittaker
Grappling
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Brunson really stands apart from Whittaker in the grappling department.
He is a former Division II All-American wrestler and has controlled a lot of his fights on the mat. Having a decided edge with his wrestling will allow him to fall back to grappling should Whittaker have greater success in terms of striking.
Taking Whittaker down, however, is an entirely different ball of wax.
Whittaker has exceptional balance. He has not been taken down since a 2013 fight against Court McGee. Brunson will need to set up his takedowns or time his entries off Whittaker's striking. If he is even moderately predictable, Whittaker will stuff his shots.
Edge: Brunson
Submissions
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Let's not sell Whittaker down the river completely. He has some submission abilities to his credit, but they are not likely to come into play against Brunson.
Whittaker hasn't submitted anyone since 2011 and has yet to attempt a submission inside the Octagon.
Brunson is much more active in showing off his submission acumen. He hasn't completed a submission since 2013, but he isn't afraid to go for one. A lot of this has to do with Brunson's grappling ability. He's able to control position and then search for his submission attempts.
He'll have the better opportunities to finish, but one can never be too safe. Whittaker has the ability to surprise.
Edge: Brunson
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X-Factors
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Brunson's X-Factor: Changing Levels
Usually when we discuss changing levels, it's all about the takedown, especially with wrestlers. In this case, it's also about attacking the body with strikes.
Brunson needs to gain Whittaker's respect. If he headhunts, Whittaker's slick head movement and footwork will slip his power shots. Brunson needs to go after his body to lower his defenses. Successful striking will also allow him to time Whittaker's strikes so he can change levels and take him down with a shot.
Body work and takedowns are going to be important for Brunson on Saturday.
Whittaker's X-Factor: Early Takedown Defense
This is almost a no-brainer, but it's just the fact of the matter. Whittaker's early takedown defense is key to his success.
Whittaker has to keep Brunson standing in order to win this fight. If he is taken down early, Brunson will grind him down. It'll sap Whittaker's power and speed. He'll be easier to handle as each round passes. If Whittaker can stuff him early, Brunson will have to deal with the wicked combinations Whittaker brings.
If Brunson is successful with his wrestling right away, it will be a long evening for Whittaker.
Prediction
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This fight will come down to whether Whittaker can stop the takedown. Brunson is a smart fighter who realizes he is on the precipice of breaking through to the next level, and he knows he has a distinct edge with his wrestling.
Brunson won't be scared to get involved in a stand-up fight, but he'll be looking for an opportunity to grapple with Whittaker.
Whittaker may be able to stop a few attempts, but even clinching against the cage will be a negative. Brunson will grind Whittaker down in the first 10 minutes, see great success in the third round and finish in the fourth.
Whittaker hasn't been in a five-round fight since 2012, when he lost to a NAIA national champion wrestler, Jesse Juarez. The same deficiencies that cost him then will cost him against Brunson. And Brunson is bigger and stronger. He'll be able to score a ground-and-pound that gets the referee to stop it in the fourth once he gets to a dominant position.
Look for Brunson to get a title eliminator in 2017.
Prediction: Brunson def. Whittaker by TKO in the fourth round
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