In BYU's Toughest Remaining Road Game, Can UNLV Pull Off the Upset?

As a current BYU student and a Las Vegas native, I have a unique perspective on this game.

BYU is off to an excellent start to the 2009 season, going 4-1 in their first five games. Defeating the likes of Oklahoma in the first game of the season in the unlikeliest of upsets, but losing to a 2-3 Florida State team at home; it is hard to get a read on how good this BYU team actually is.

UNLV meanwhile is 2-3, coming off an extremely poor showing at Nevada, losing 63-28. But they could easily be 4-1 right now, losing extremely close games against Oregon State at home, and to Wyoming on the road.

Last year in Provo, UNLV gave BYU all they could handle. BYU won 42-35 in a a hard fought shootout.

For UNLV to beat BYU, they will need to do three things right.

1. Win the turnover battle.

2. Be the last to score at the end of the half.

3. Be the last to score at the end of the game.

Yes, for UNLV to win, they will have to play the game like it is a video game.

Because BYU's offense against UNLV's porous defense is a huge mismatch. UNLV will have to win this one with a superior offense and superior clock management.

I could really see this game going a number of ways. I could see UNLV pulling off the upset and shocking BYU. But I could also see a complete BYU blowout. Especially if Max Hall can be turnover free or only cough it up once.

The BYU offense is looking ridiculously balanced, Harvey Unga is that rare RB with an excellent size, speed, and vision, and Max Hall, while turnover prone, has been spectacular for the most part.

The UNLV defense has looked solid in only one game this year, and that was when they only gave up 23 points to Oregon State. They've given up  33 points to Hawaii, 30 to Wyoming and 63 to Nevada.

But UNLV's offense does have the potential to make this game interesting. They probably have the best receivers unit in the Mountain West conference. There is definitely upset potential here.

BYU is a 17-point favorite in this one, and I really think there is a 50-50 chance for them to cover or not cover. If I was a gambling man, I'd stay away from this one.

Ultimately, I think BYU will run the ball right down UNLV's throat, Unga will go for over 150 yards, and Max Hall will have a solid day. BYU's defense will make enough plays to prevent it from being a shootout. I think BYU will win 45-28, easily winning their toughest road game of the season.