The Complete Guide to UFC Fight Night 101: Whittaker vs. Brunson
The UFC returns to Australia Saturday, November 26 (or Sunday, November 27 local time) with a decent offering on Fox Sports 1.
While not stacked with name value, there should be solid action up and down the card from up-and-coming young fighters. In the main event, a new middleweight contender will emerge from the matchup of Derek Brunson and Robert Whittaker in a division that badly needs some new blood at the top. This should be a fun fight—and one with real consequences.
The co-main event is essentially an opportunity for Australian prospect Jake Matthews to get back on track against Andrew Holbrook, while Australian veteran Kyle Noke gets a chance to rebound against Omari Akhmedov.
Other fights to keep an eye on include the prospect matchup between Khalil Rountree and Tyson Pedro and the Fight Pass headliner between Jason Knight and Dan Hooker.
Let's take a look at each matchup.
The Fight Pass Prelims
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Flyweights
Yao Zhikui (2-3; 1-2 UFC) vs. Jenel Lausa (6-2; 0-0 UFC)
Zhikui, a veteran of The Ultimate Fighter: China, takes on debuting Filipino Lausa in a low-level fight. Zhikui is big for the division at 5'5" and can do a bit of everything, though none of it particularly well, with a decent counterpunching game and some functional wrestling skills. Lausa has experience as a professional boxer, and it shows in his quick, potent hands. He's a decent defensive wrestler as well.
Prediction: Lausa is a much more technical striker and has shown off enough basic takedown defense to keep this standing. He takes a decision over Zhikui.
Bantamweights
Marlon Vera (7-3-1; 1-2 UFC) vs. Ning Guangyou (5-3-1; 2-1 UFC)
Low-level bantamweights meet in what's almost certainly a loser-leaves-town matchup as TUF: Latin America vet Vera takes on TUF: China contestant Guangyou. Vera is quick, throws hard kicks and is aggressive on the mat, but he's a bad wrestler. Guangyou has real pop in his hands and solid wrestling skills, but that's about it.
Prediction: Guangyou's wrestling should be the difference here. He wins a decision.
Featherweights
Dan Hooker (13-6; 3-2 UFC) vs. Jason Knight (14-2; 1-1 UFC)
New Zealand's Hooker draws Mississippi's Knight in a barnburner of a featherweight matchup. Hooker has been up and down in his UFC career, knocking out Hatsu Hioki, then dropping a decision to Yair Rodriguez and getting back on track with a submission of Mark Eddiva. Knight lost a short-notice debut to the veteran Tatsuya Kawajiri but dominated Jim Alers in his impressive last outing.
Hooker is tall and lanky, checking in at an even 6'0", and he uses his height well on the feet with rangy kicks, jabs and straight punches. He's strong in the clinch as well and throws sharp knees and elbows on the inside. Excellent defensive wrestling generally keeps him standing, and he's an aggressive grappler to boot.
Knight, too, is tall for the division at 5'10", and he uses a combination of crisp jabs and oblique kicks to maintain his distance. He works at a great pace and loves to get in his opponent's face. His defensive wrestling skills are subpar, but he makes up for that with an aggressive guard.
Prediction: This is a close fight. It wouldn't be surprising if Knight continued to develop at a rapid rate, but as the two fighters stand right now, Hooker is the more diverse and better clinch striker. He wins a decision.
The Fox Sports 1 Prelims
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Flyweights
Ben Nguyen (14-6; 2-1 UFC) vs. Geane Herrera (9-2; 1-2 UFC)
Talented flyweights kick things off on Fox Sports 1. Nguyen won his first two UFC fights in impressive fashion, finishing Alptekin Ozkilic and Ryan Benoit, but fell hard against Louis Smolka in July. Herrera lost his last outing to Ali Bagautinov after notching his first UFC win over Joby Sanchez. The winner will be near the top 15, but there's a chance the loser will be cut.
Herrera is athletic and packs real power in his hands, but he's still learning to put his skills together. He hangs back to counter too much and isn't a great defensive wrestler. Nguyen is a sharp, powerful striker with crisp counters and a nice takedown game to complement it. He's aggressive in transitions as well.
Prediction: Nguyen has substantial skill advantages and works at a much faster pace. He finds the knockout in the second round.
Welterweights
Richard Walsh (9-4; 2-3 UFC) vs. Jonathan Meunier (7-1; 0-1 UFC)
Australia's Walsh draws Canada's Meunier in a fun matchup. Walsh suffered a decision loss to Viscardi Andrade in his last outing after beating Steve Kennedy, while Meunier fell short in his short-notice debut against blue-chip prospect Colby Covington.
Walsh can do a bit of everything, with an aggressive game focused on heavy kicks and punching combinations, stout work in the clinch and functional wrestling. Meunier is huge for the division at 6'3" and puts his height to good use with rangy kicks. A nice double-leg takedown and potent ground strikes are a nice complement to his work on the feet.
Prediction: Meunier's wrestling skills didn't hold up in his loss to Covington, but what was more worrisome was how poorly he dealt with pressure. Walsh's aggression will get him inside Meunier's reach and give the Australian opportunities to land enough to win a decision.
Lightweights
Jon Tuck (9-3; 3-3 UFC) vs. Damien Brown (16-9; 1-1 UFC)
Tuck, a native of Guam, takes on Australia's Brown in a decent fight at 155 pounds. Tuck has alternated wins and losses in his six UFC fights, most recently falling by split decision to Josh Emmett. Brown was victorious in his last fight, knocking out Cesar Arzamendia in July.
While he's a talented athlete, Tuck has never really put all of his skills together into a coherent whole. He has a sharp kicking game and an aggressive submission arsenal, but he's a subpar wrestler and gets hit too much. Brown, by contrast, isn't much of an athlete, but he's a crisp boxer, a decent wrestler and is technical and dangerous when he gets on top.
Prediction: This is a close fight, but Tuck's athletic gifts should give him an advantage if he can keep this standing. He wins a decision.
Middleweights
Chris Camozzi (24-11; 9-8 UFC) vs. Dan Kelly (11-1; 4-1 UFC)
A former competitor in judo at the Olympic level for his native Australia, Kelly has been impressive in the UFC, winning four of his five fights. He draws the American Camozzi, a longtime staple of the middleweight division, who fell short against Thales Leites in his last outing after a two-fight winning streak.
Camozzi, a southpaw, is a crisp range striker who relies on a probing right jab and vicious left kicks. While not much of a puncher, he works at a tremendous pace and piles up volume. The clinch is a strong secondary area for him, and he throws vicious knees and elbows on the inside. At best, however, he's a mediocre defensive wrestler and struggles to keep the fight standing.
Kelly is likewise a southpaw and, despite his background in judo, has mostly been a striker in his UFC career. He's a surprisingly sharp counterpuncher and remains quick despite being 39 years old. He can still hit an array of slick trips and throws in the clinch when the mood strikes, and he's a handful on top.
Prediction: Kelly has the takedown skills to trouble Camozzi and the power to touch up the hittable American, but he'll struggle to get inside, and at range, Camozzi works at a much quicker pace. Camozzi wins a decision.
Seohee Ham vs. Danielle Taylor
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Strawweights
Seohee Ham (16-7; 1-2 UFC) vs. Danielle Taylor (7-2; 0-1 UFC)
South Korea's Ham faces the American Taylor in a potentially entertaining strawweight fight. Ham dropped a close decision to Bec Rawlings last time out but defeated Cortney Casey prior to that. Taylor had a promising career on the regional scene, but her debut loss against Maryna Moroz was a strong contender for the worst fight in the promotion this year.
Taylor prefers to strike. She's fast and athletic, which allows her to get in and out of range quickly, but is tiny for the division at only 5'0". There's power in all of her shots, but her right hand is especially dangerous. Her game mostly focuses on darting in with single shots and then exiting on angles. When this works, it's devastating, but she doesn't throw much volume and is vulnerable to counters as she gets out of range.
While she's not a bad defensive wrestler or clinch fighter in a technical sense, Taylor's lack of size is a serious problem, and she can be tossed around by bigger, stronger fighters.
Ham is a southpaw striker by trade. A former professional kickboxer, that background shows in her slick counters and ability to find clean angles from which to land. Volume is a real strong suit for her, and she consistently throws more than one shot at a time. Despite standing only 5'2", she fights long with rangy kicks and a crisp jab. She's hittable, though, and her preferred pace guarantees she'll eat shots.
That's basically the extent of Ham's game. She can defend takedowns reasonably well and isn't helpless on the mat, but that's it.
Betting Odds
Ham -115 (bet $115 to win $100), Taylor -105 (bet $105 to win $100)
Prediction
It's surprising that Ham isn't a bigger favorite here. Taylor has power, but she's miles behind Ham as a technical striker, works at a much slower pace and doesn't have the wrestling game to trouble the South Korean. Ham will eat a few scary shots, but she'll win a clean decision.
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Khalil Rountree vs. Tyson Pedro
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Light Heavyweights
Khalil Rountree (4-1; 0-1 UFC) vs. Tyson Pedro (4-0; 0-0 UFC)
The Ultimate Fighter 23 finalist Rountree, a blue-chip prospect, looks to get back on track after losing to Andrew Sanchez at the finale. He takes on debuting Australian Pedro, who likewise has the look of a legitimate prospect after compiling an undefeated record on the regional scene.
Pedro looks like a legitimate talent. He has a background in karate and boxing, which shows in fluid combinations, crisp footwork and head movement. Despite those base skills, Pedro has shown a fondness for powerful takedowns, potent striking from the top, solid passes and a nose for the submission finish. Physicality appears to be Pedro's biggest asset at this point, with great strength, quickness and power.
Rountree is an outstanding athlete with excellent speed and serious power in his strikes. The southpaw, a longtime student of Anderson Silva and Lyoto Machida, is a pure striker at this point. His mentors' influence shows in his preference for counterpunching, a rarity in such a young, raw fighter. His timing and triggers are sharp, and every punch or kick he throws carries fight-ending force.
The clinch is a strong secondary area for Rountree, and he delivers vicious knees, elbows and punches. His takedown defense is a work in progress: It's been competent against low-level opposition, but it relies heavily on his athleticism and stuffing the initial shot, and that's just not enough against skilled opponents who can chain attempts together and grind him out.
Betting Odds
Rountree -145 (bet $145 to win $100), Pedro +125 (bet $100 to win $125)
Prediction
This is another close matchup, though mostly because both guys are as raw as they are. Rountree has more and better experience, though, and that should be the difference here. He knocks out Pedro in the second round.
Yusuke Kasuya vs. Alex Volkanovski
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Lightweights
Yusuke Kasuya (9-2-2; 0-1 UFC) vs. Alex Volkanovski (13-1; 0-0 UFC)
Debuting Australian Volkanovski takes on Japan's Kasuya in a decent lightweight bout. Kasuya debuted with a decision loss against Nick Hein in September 2015 and hasn't fought since. Volkanovski has put together a strong record on the regional scene, including a win over UFC fighter Anton Zafir.
Kasuya is quick, athletic and dangerous everywhere. In-and-out movement is the basis of his approach, and he's an improving combination puncher who does an excellent job of hiding his head kicks with sneaky angles and behind his hands.
Grappling is the real strength of Kasuya's game, though. He's outstanding in scrambles, has a real knack for getting to the back and hunts aggressively for the submission. Wrestling isn't the best facet of Kasuya's game, though he can hit some sneaky takedowns.
Volkanovski is a powerhouse of a fighter. He stands just 5'5" and has fought recently at 145 pounds but makes up for his lack of height with great strength and speed. Wrestling is the basis of his game, and he shows off an ultra-quick shot he finishes with authority. However, he's adept at setting up his level changes with strikes.
He's still raw on the feet, but Volkanovski's speed and power make him dangerous. His overhand is potent, fast and tricky, and the threat of his wrestling distracts from his striking game.
When he gets his hands on his opponent, Volkanovski is crafty and smothering. He moves smoothly between traditional top control and wrestling rides and has a knack for landing punches and knees in transition as his opponent tries to scramble. Ground striking is his specialty, but he can get to the back and hunt for the choke as well.
Betting Odds
Volkanovski -165, Kasuya +145
Prediction
This is Volkanovski's fight to lose. If he gets stuck at striking range with Kasuya, he could be in trouble, but he's a vastly superior wrestler, and his ability to control on the mat should smother Kasuya's scrambling style. Volkanovski takes a decision.
Kyle Noke vs. Omari Akhmedov
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Welterweights
Kyle Noke (22-9-1; 6-5 UFC) vs. Omari Akhmedov (15-4; 3-3 UFC)
Australian veteran Noke looks to get back on track after losing two in a row, the first a robbery decision against Alex Morono and the second a submission at the hands of Keita Nakamura. Dagestan's Akhmedov has likewise lost two in a row, both by knockout, to Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos and Sergio Moraes. The loser might well be cut from the promotion, so there are real stakes here.
Noke is a crafty striker who maximizes his 6'1" frame and long reach. Rangy kicks are the order of the day, especially a stabbing front kick that he throws to the body and an array of oblique and side kicks. His jab is crisp and consistent as well, and he has some pop in his right hand.
He relies heavily on distance to avoid his opponent's strikes, though, and doesn't take a great punch. Especially at this stage in his career, he's not especially fast.
Strong defensive wrestling generally keeps Noke standing, though he's not bulletproof in that phase. He can hit the occasional takedown when the mood strikes and might be better served to use that piece of his game more often than he does. On the mat, Noke is competent from top position and is defensively sound when placed on his back. Getting to the back is a specialty.
Akhmedov is explosive, powerful, athletic and deeply flawed. He's a bit of a glass cannon, an offensive powerhouse who lacks defensive skills or the durability to wade through his opponent's shots, and he compounds that with questionable decision-making.
On the feet, Akhmedov throws everything with vicious power. He has a surprisingly sharp jab and heavy low kicks, and when he commits to combinations of power punches, he can put any opponent to sleep in short order. He's terribly hittable, though, and never paces himself. He throws everything hard and drains his gas tank quickly.
Akhmedov's takedowns are explosive and authoritative. When he gets on top, he brings the same power to his ground strikes that he does on the feet, though he isn't much of a submission threat against legitimate competition. The problem is defensive wrestling: He's genuinely bad at it, and practically every opponent who has tried has been able to get him to the mat.
Betting Odds
Akhmedov -170, Noke +150
Prediction
Either Akhmedov wins by early knockout or Noke will wear him down for a decision or a late finish. Given Noke's recent troubles with his chin, the former seems a little more likely. Akhmedov lands a knockout shot in the first round.
Jake Matthews vs. Andrew Holbrook
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Lightweights
Jake Matthews (10-2; 4-2 UFC) vs. Andrew Holbrook (11-1; 1-1 UFC)
Despite dropping his last outing to Kevin Lee, himself a rising talent, Australian prospect Matthews is still one of the more promising up-and-comers in the stacked lightweight division. He looks to get back on track here against Indiana's Holbrook, who fell by knockout to Joaquim Silva after defeating Ramsey Nijem in his debut.
Matthews is just 22 years old, but he already has legitimate skills in every area to go along with outstanding physical gifts in the form of speed, explosiveness and power.
The Australian is a bit raw on the feet and still has quite a bit left to learn, but the building blocks are there. He likes to set a long distance with front and round kicks and then leap in with potent punching combinations that play off his quickness. He mixes things up nicely and has a preference for targeting the body to wear his opponent down over the course of the fight.
Wrestling is probably the weakest area of Matthews' game. Although he's an authoritative finisher, he lacks technical depth to his takedown game and doesn't do a great job of timing or setting up his shots. Defensively, he's competent but has struggled against high-level wrestlers.
Matthews is most dangerous on the mat. He's vicious from top position with his ground striking, controls well, passes smoothly and even from his back is always attacking with submissions.
Holbrook is skilled and can do a bit of everything, though he's not particularly quick or athletic. He's a crisp striker with a nice array of punch-kick combinations, but he mostly looks to punch his way into the clinch or into a level change for a takedown attempt.
The clinch is Holbrook's wheelhouse. He makes great use of the double-collar tie and excels at control against the fence, where he lands sharp knees at all levels and wears his opponent down. On the mat, Holbrook has a real nose for the submission and is particularly good from the front headlock, where he has a nice series of chokes.
Betting Odds
Matthews -335, Holbrook +275
Prediction
This is all about athleticism: Matthews has it in spades and Holbrook doesn't. The American is skilled enough to compete, but eventually, he's going to be placed in a situation where Matthews' dynamism comes into play. Matthews finds a submission in the second round.
Robert Whittaker vs. Derek Brunson
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Main Event: Middleweights
Robert Whittaker (16-4; 7-2 UFC) vs. Derek Brunson (16-3; 7-1 UFC)
Rising talents meet with a slot in the middleweight elite up for grabs. Whittaker won The Ultimate Fighter: The Smashes as a welterweight and saw only mixed results at 170 pounds, dropping consecutive fights to Court McGee and future title challenger Stephen Thompson. He defeated Mike Rhodes after that and then moved up to 185 pounds, where he has won all four of his fights.
Brunson came to the UFC via Strikeforce, where he won several fights but suffered a knockout loss to Jacare Souza to close out his tenure. After falling to Yoel Romero in his third UFC bout, Brunson has been on a tear, winning five in a row. The last four of those victories have come by brutal knockout in the first round, and not a single one has taken longer than two minutes and 38 seconds.
While the middleweight division has a great many compelling matchups available, it's a rapidly aging division, and both Whittaker and Brunson are young enough (25 and 32, respectively) to be the next big thing as the top talents start to drop off.
While undersized for the division at 5'11"—he's the shortest fighter currently ranked in the UFC's top 10—Whittaker makes up for his lack of height and reach with speed, athleticism and craft.
Striking is his preference, and he has a knack for fighting long. That might sound counterintuitive for a short fighter, but Whittaker excels at peppering his opponent from range with front, side and round kicks while using his jab to gauge the distance and score.
When the moment is right, Whittaker leaps into power-punching range with a blitzing combination of straights and hooks. He excels at moving his head and cutting angles as he moves in to avoid counters and disguise his shots as he throws. Covering distance with surprising speed and often switching from orthodox to southpaw to help him move forward even faster, Whittaker carries fight-ending power in both hands.
Counters are another strength for Whittaker. Head movement and timing in the pocket are real strengths, and he has a particular knack for landing a back-stepping left hook as his opponent pressures. In general, he works at a quick pace and scores enough to win rounds.
If there's a problem with Whittaker's striking game, it's his tendency to get hit. He's not a bad defensive fighter by any measure, with good head movement and control of the range. But part of the problem with being an undersized fighter who works fast is that he ends up spending a lot of time at distances where the opponent can land strikes. He's also prone to eating counters as he blitzes into range.
The rest of Whittaker's game is functional. He's sharp in the clinch and has a knack for landing sharp elbows and knees at close range before breaking off, and he has some of the best takedown defense in the division. When the mood strikes, he can time an explosive double-leg takedown, and on the mat he has real pop in his ground strikes. He rarely makes use of those skill sets, though.
Brunson is well-rounded and dangerous everywhere. The southpaw likes to pressure, working behind a series of sharp front and round kicks as he pushes his opponent backward. When his opponent's back is close to the fence, Brunson explodes forward with a brutal left hand that carries fight-ending power.
If he lands, his opponent will feel it; if he overshoots, Brunson is happy to end up in the clinch—the best phase of his game. When tied up with his opponent, Brunson puts strikes and takedown together in clever combinations. He likes to put his opponent off balance with a sneaky trip and then come up high with a knee or fake a level change before firing off a hard punching combination as he breaks.
Brunson excels at pinning his opponent in place with just an underhook and head pressure, leaving an arm free to throw sequences of hooks and uppercuts that do real damage. At any time, he can drop down for an effective chain of singles and doubles. His takedown defense is outstanding, and he has yet to concede a single one in his UFC and Strikeforce careers.
When he gets on top, Brunson is devastating. His posture is excellent and he needs only a small amount of space to create serious power in his ground strikes. While not much of a submission threat, he can be suffocating on top.
The real problem with Brunson's game is how he goes about covering that last bit of range between kicking distance and the clinch: He has a bad habit of lunging forward, which makes up for his lack of precise pressure footwork but brings him quickly to where he wants to be. This exposes Brunson to counters, since his chin rises and his head moves forward of his lead knee. Savvy opponents can and have exploited this.
Betting Odds
Brunson -145, Whittaker +125
Prediction
This is a close matchup. While Brunson is functional at striking range, Whittaker is vastly more schooled on the feet; conversely, Brunson is a much better clinch fighter and wrestler and would have a huge advantage if he could find a way to get on top.
The problem for Brunson is getting the fight into the clinch and either holding Whittaker there or taking him to the ground. Whittaker is no slouch as a clinch fighter and is hard to keep there if he tries to escape, and his takedown defense is outstanding. Trying to cover that last bit of distance is going to be an even bigger problem for Brunson than it usually is, given Whittaker's speed, footwork and counterpunching skill.
That should be the difference here. While Brunson is a nightmare if he can get his hands on his opponent, Whittaker won't make that easy for him, and he'll repeatedly punish Brunson for trying. Whittaker is the pick by knockout in the third round.
Odds courtesy of Odds Shark; current as of Wednesday.
Patrick Wyman is the Senior MMA Analyst for Bleacher Report and the co-host of the Heavy Hands Podcast, your source for the finer points of face-punching. For the history enthusiasts out there, he also hosts The Fall of Rome Podcast on the end of the Roman Empire. He can be found on Twitter and on Facebook.
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