Super-Early Grades for CBB's Top Freshmen in the 2016-17 Season
It has only been one week, but highly touted freshmen Josh Jackson and Edrice "Bam" Adebayo aren't comparing favorably to their Andrew Wiggins and Julius Randle predecessors.
There are still seven months until the 2017 NBA draft, but every game in a scout's notebook matters.
What kind of marks are this year's freshmen studs receiving thus far?
Using Scout's ranking of the 2016 class, we've assigned letter grades for the top 10* freshmen in the country.
Keep in mind that the standards for these players are quite high. They may look better than their current freshmen counterparts, but are they keeping pace with what Rondae Hollis-Jefferson did as the 10th-best freshman three years ago or what Henry Ellenson and Stephen Zimmerman did at Nos. 7 and 8 in last year's class?
When rated this highly, being drafted in the lottery isn't just a goal; it's an expectation. Given what we've seen thus far, here's how we feel these players are living up to the hype.
*No. 2 Harry Giles, No. 4 Jayson Tatum and No. 8 Marques Bolden have not yet appeared in a game, and No. 9 Thon Maker jumped straight to the NBA. Rather than listing players by their overall rank on Scout and having people ask why we skipped those numbers, we're temporarily pretending those guys don't exist and sliding everyone else up to fill in those holes.
10. Miles Bridges, Michigan State
1 of 10
Stats: 13.5 PPG, 9.5 RPG, 1.5 APG, 1.5 BPG, 18.2% 3PT, 6.5 TOPG
Grade: C-
Somehow, Miles Bridges has managed to serve as both the most exciting and the most frustrating player in the country.
Through two games against marquee opponents, Bridges has already had five thunderous dunks. He also had a missed dunk against Kentucky that nearly brought the house down, but he did have an incredible block in that game to help make up for it. His athleticism and bounce are second to none. By season's end, his NBA draft night highlight reel might be an hour long.
But the need for him to be a one-man show on this depleted and inexperienced roster is already taking its toll.
Take away the six dunk attempts, and Bridges is shooting 6-of-24 (25.0 percent) from the field, including 2-of-11 (18.2 percent) from beyond the arc. Bridges also has committed 13 turnovers, only one of which resulted from an offensive foul.
Again, the competition was brutal. First, Arizona's Kadeem Allen and Keanu Pinder. Then, Kentucky's De'Aaron Fox and Wenyen Gabriel. Both sets of Wildcats have been elite on defense for years and may have two of the best perimeter defenses in the country this season. With the exception of possible games against Louisville and VCU in the Battle 4 Atlantis, Michigan State won't face back-to-back opponents like that at least until the NCAA tournament.
Still, the numbers are awful. Bridges has an O-rating of 67.8, which, if maintained for the entire season, would make him one of the biggest 5-star busts ever. We fully trust he'll turn things around when the schedule softens up and his teammates get healthy and more useful. But aside from a few SportsCenter top 10 dunks in losing efforts, this is not the start anyone had in mind for Bridges and the Spartans.
9. Malik Monk, Kentucky
2 of 10
Stats: 16.3 PPG, 3.3 RPG, 1.3 APG, 43.5% 3PT
Grade: A-
Malik Monk was advertised as an explosive athlete and streaky shooter. Though we didn't get to see any of the aerial acrobatics in the win over Michigan State, color us impressed by what Monk looks like when on one of his hot streaks.
He didn't shoot well in his first two games, hitting just 25 percent of his 12 three-point attempts, but he made up for lost time by draining 7-of-11 against the Spartans. He made his first three shots, guiding the Wildcats to an early lead they would never relinquish. He finished with a game-high 23 points and gave the dozens of NBA scouts in attendance more positive notes to jot down.
What happens against elite opponents when Monk isn't red-hot, though? As Mark Titus wrote in his recap of the Champions Classic for The Ringer, "I'm semi-worried about Kentucky's three-point shooting, and I'd bet my life on Monk going 3-for-17 during an important game this season."
The best guards aren't the ones who make 50 percent of their three-point attempts every night. The best guards are the ones who can figure out how to still make a positive impact when their shots aren't falling—like a starting pitcher who can fight through six innings on a day when his breaking ball isn't breaking.
It was great to see Monk shoot like that at Madison Square Garden, but it'll be even better for his (and Kentucky's) future when he demonstrates the ability to manufacture tough points and contribute in other areas. He's shooting 36.8 percent from inside the arc, has attempted just five free throws and is averaging 4.7 rebounds and 1.9 assists per 40 minutes.
Monk is too great an athlete to be content with living and dying from downtown.
8. Wenyen Gabriel, Kentucky
3 of 10
Stats: 5.7 PPG, 3.7 RPG, 1.7 SPG
Grade: B
In due time, Wenyen Gabriel will be the most important factor in determining Kentucky's ceiling and whether it gets there.
Kentucky has three outstanding guards in Isaiah Briscoe, De'Aaron Fox and Malik Monk. However, they can't be expected to play 40 minutes per game. Reserve guards Dominique Hawkins and Mychal Mulder can pick up some of the minutes when those guys are on the bench, but if it's not that trio of guards on the court, Gabriel should be playing the 3.
In fact, he should probably be out there as much as possible, depending upon the opponent. A 6'9" wing who might be the team's top defensive asset, Gabriel is Kentucky's best option for guarding three-point shooters taller than 6'5".
It doesn't seem like he'll be heavily involved in the offense, aside from his ability to crash the offensive glass. Gabriel has barely averaged one field-goal attempt for every five minutes on the court and has only been used on 10.6 percent of possessions.
For the role he has been given, though, Gabriel is playing well. He's averaging better than three steals per 40 minutes and has yet to commit a turnover of his own. And in his limited offensive touches, he has already thrown down three dunks.
There's plenty of room for growth, but we like what we've seen so far.
.png?w=256 "NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament Championship")
7. Bam Adebayo, Kentucky
4 of 10
Stats: 8.3 PPG, 5.7 RPG, 1.7 BPG, 1.0 APG, 56.5% FT
Grade: C+
With Duke's Harry Giles and Marques Bolden sidelined by injuries and Florida State's Jonathan Isaac playing like more of a wing than a forward, Bam Adebayo should be the most dominant freshman big man in the country right now.
The problem is he's too big for his own good.
About two months ago, this video of a nine-year-old rugby player destroying everyone in his path went viral. And when Kentucky and Michigan State squared off in the Champions Classic, it was as if we were watching the basketball version of that clip. Adebayo was able to dislodge defenders from their positions at will, making Spartans like Nick Ward and Kenny Goins look like rag dolls.
Unfortunately for him, that's frowned upon in this sport. He was whistled for four fouls against Michigan State, all of them on the offensive end. As a result, he had a lackluster six points, five rebounds and two blocks. Similarly, he was a non-factor in the season opener against Stephen F. Austin, committing four fouls in just 15 minutes of action. He drew two of those whistles in the first 43 seconds and was not seen again until after the intermission.
But the one time the refs did let him play, he was an animal. In 27 minutes against Canisius, Adebayo had 14 points, 11 rebounds (six offensive) and three blocks with just two personal fouls. Those are the Julius Randle type of box scores we expect to see from this mountain of a man once he adjusts to the whistles.
In addition to fouls committed, fouls drawn may be an issue for Adebayo. He has drawn nearly 10 fouls per 40 minutes, but he is 13-of-23 from the free-throw line. If that percentage gets any worse, opposing teams may implement a Wham-a-Bam strategy.
6. Dennis Smith Jr., North Carolina State
5 of 10
Stats: 11.5 PPG, 4.0 APG, 2.0 RPG, 1.0 SPG, 0-of-7 from three
Grade: D+
For lead guards with aspirations of being drafted in this year's lottery, there's no time to mess around. Markelle Fultz, Lonzo Ball and De'Aaron Fox have gotten out to hot starts as freshmen, while older guys like Frank Mason III, Joel Berry II and Jawun Evans are already turning heads with their incredible play.
There was only one point guard (Kris Dunn) taken in last year's lottery, but there's a whole smorgasbord of potential top-10 ball-handlers in this year's crop.
So, Dennis Smith Jr. shooting 27.3 percent through two games and just barely leading N.C. State to a season-opening home win over Georgia Southern was not a promising start.
The good news is he's averaging four assists per turnover and has been aggressively driving to contact, either finishing at the rim or at the free-throw line—where he is shooting 11-of-13. He also had a nice two-handed dunk just four minutes into the first game of the season, effectively shutting up the people who insisted on questioning his surgically repaired knee.
But if he's not putting up big personal numbers and he's not making the rest of the team better, what's he doing? He's certainly not playing shutdown defense, as Georgia Southern's Tookie Brown, a 5'11" point guard, had 26 points, 10 rebounds and no turnovers against him.
Perhaps when his teammates learn how to hit the broad side of a barn, Smith's stats will improve. The Wolfpack are 5-of-31 from three-point range as a team, making assists harder to come by.
5. Lonzo Ball, UCLA
6 of 10
Stats: 15.0 PPG, 8.3 APG, 7.7 RPG, 1.7 SPG
Grade: A+
The competition (home games against Pacific, Cal St. Northridge and San Diego) has been nothing special, but Lonzo Ball has been.
Put it this way: If he's still putting up these numbers in December against the likes of Kentucky, Michigan, Ohio State and Oregon, you can start etching his name on the Wooden Award.
It'll only be a matter of time before Ball records a few triple-doubles, because he has already come close several times. Ball has recorded at least 13 points, seven rebounds and six assists in each of his games, leading a Bruins offense that looks almost unstoppable at 103 points per game.
In addition to the Jason Kidd-like assists and rebounds, Ball is averaging 15 points per game while rarely calling his own number with just 8.3 field-goal attempts per game. A lot of lead guards have a tendency to selfishly force the issue, but Ball has as many assists as he does shot attempts.
What might be most remarkable about his stat line, though, is the relative lack of turnovers. Ball has spent 110 minutes on the court as the primary ball-handler for one of the most uptempo teams in the country, and he has committed a grand total of just seven turnovers.
Ball is also making an impact on the defensive end with five steals and two blocks. And as Sporting News' Sam Vecenie tweeted early in the San Diego game, it's readily apparent he has the skills to be an elite defender when he puts his mind to it. There's really nothing not to like here.
4. De'Aaron Fox, Kentucky
7 of 10
Stats: 15.0 PPG, 7.0 APG, 4.0 RPG, 1.3 SPG, 0-of-7 from three
Grade: A
Malik Monk received all the praise after the blowout win in the Champions Classic, but for my money, De'Aaron Fox has been the most impressive of Kentucky's five stud freshmen.
Fox had an assist on several of Monk's three-pointers, repeatedly putting him in the perfect position for a wide-open look. He also assisted on dunks by Wenyen Gabriel and Bam Adebayo before throwing down one of his own.
Fox has already coughed up the ball eight times, but he's averaging nearly three dimes per turnover, playing beyond his years as the primary ball-handler on a young roster.
The two big things we were promised with Fox were elite end-to-end speed and active, instinctive hands on defense. He has not disappointed in either department. Entering play on Thursday, Kentucky ranked 16th in the nation in average possession length on offense and sixth in defensive turnover percentage. He only has four of their 24 live-ball steals, but the Wildcats have forced a total of 82 turnovers with Fox spear-heading the defense.
The only reason he's getting an A instead of an A+ is because he has missed each of his seven three-point attempts. However, he is 21-of-21 from the free-throw line, so he's clearly capable of tossing the ball into the hoop. Once he makes enough jumpers to force opponents to respect his range, prepare to watch him become the most dangerous triple-threat guard in the nation.
3. Jonathan Isaac, Florida State
8 of 10
Stats: 15.0 PPG, 4.5 RPG, 2.5 SPG, 57.1% 3PT
Grade: A-
Florida State is going to be a lot of fun to watch this season, and Jonathan Isaac has already proven to be the biggest reason why that's the case.
In uptempo games against Charleston Southern and Iona, the 6'10" freshman had no problem running the floor like a gazelle, scoring efficiently on one end before playing shutdown D on the other.
He only played 23 minutes in each game—meaning the above numbers shift to about 26 points, eight rebounds and more than four steals on a per-40-minutes scale—but he had multiple steals and made multiple triples in both games.
After recording 10 points and three rebounds in the first game, Isaac tweeted: "Room for improvement!!" Perhaps more should follow suit, because he got twice as good overnight, doubling those totals with 20 points and six rebounds against Iona—again, in just 23 minutes of action.
If we can pick at one nit, though, he should be making more of an impact on the glass. The Seminoles have eight guys averaging between 7.2 and 9.8 rebounds per 40 minutes, with Isaac on the lower side at 7.8. Despite their evenly distributed approach to rebounding, there's no way guys like 6'5" Trent Forrest, 6'6" Terance Mann and 6'7" Dwayne Bacon should be pulling down more rebounds than Isaac.
Maybe it's just a statistical anomaly in a two-game sample set and he'll get better in that area, but it could be a sign that this rail-thin wing-forward is going to get pushed around a bit by better opponents.
2. Markelle Fultz, Washington
9 of 10
Stats: 32.5 PPG, 6.0 APG, 4.5 RPG
Grade: A+
The Washington Huskies do not look good as a team. They lost the season opener against Yale and didn't start to pull away from Cal St. Fullerton until the final 10 minutes. They're allowing 93 points per game, committing far too many fouls and struggling to force turnovers. As someone who had this team in a preseason bracket projection because great things were expected of Markelle Fultz, I'm officially concerned that pick isn't going to pan out.
As far as the individual is concerned, though, wow.
Fultz has been as good as advertised and then some. He does have seven turnovers in two games, but that's a small price to pay for a guy doing this much.
Aside from the occasional TO, Fultz has been absurdly efficient. Youngstown State's Cameron Morse is leading the nation in scoring at 33.5 points per game, but it's taking him 26 field-goal attempts to get there. Fultz is only one point per game behind Morse while attempting 10.5 fewer shots per game. He's shooting 67.7 percent from the field, 50.0 percent from three-point range and is averaging a ludicrous 13 free-throw attempts per game.
All of those numbers will eventually decline to some degree, but it's not hard to see why so many expect him to be the No. 1 draft pick in a few months.
You're going to want to watch this guy as often as you can, but if you can only pick one game between now and January in which to catch him, make it the Dec. 7 trip to Gonzaga. Washington may well lose the game by 20 points, but we can't wait to see what Fultz can do as an individual against high-caliber competition.
1. Josh Jackson, Kansas
10 of 10
Stats: 12.0 PPG, 4.0 RPG, 1.5 APG, 1.0 SPG, 4.5 fouls per game
Grade: B-
No. 1 recruits over the past half-decade have made immediate major impacts.
Through two games last year, Ben Simmons was averaging 16.5 points, 11.0 rebounds, 5.5 assists, 2.0 steals and 2.0 blocks. The year before that, Jahlil Okafor averaged 18 points and 7.5 rebounds while shooting 85 percent from the field.
In 2013, Andrew Wiggins averaged 19 points and had a statement game against Duke. Nerlens Noel was never going to be much of a scorer, but he averaged 10.0 points, 8.5 rebounds, 3.0 blocks and 3.0 steals. Anthony Davis had 37 points and 12 blocks in his first two games.
You get the idea. Not all 5-star guys hit the ground running, but the top dogs have only needed about 10 seconds to prove they're going to dominate all year long.
Josh Jackson, though? Not so much.
In Jackson's defense, neutral-court games against Indiana and Duke are in a completely different galaxy of competition than the start Simmons got at home against McNeese State and Kennesaw State. And with officials handing out fouls like Oprah gives away cars, it was a brutal first week of the season to be an ultra-competitive guy trying to adjust to new rules, opponents and officials.
Still, no one was expecting him to score less than half as many points as Frank Mason III while picking up a foul for every five minutes spent on the court.
Fortunately, the competition is about to get a lot easier. Kansas' toughest possible opponent between now and the start of January would be a neutral-court game against Georgia in the finals of the CBE Hall of Fame Classic. Jackson should be able to start racking up impressive box scores against the likes of UAB, Stanford and Nebraska.
From what we've seen thus far, though, we're left wanting more.
Stats are courtesy of KenPom.com and Sports-Reference.com. Recruiting information is courtesy of Scout.
Kerry Miller covers college basketball for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @kerrancejames.
.png?w=480 "NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament Championship")
.jpg?w=600 "Colts Release Kenny Moore")
