Knee-Jerk Reactions to the Start of the 2016-17 NCAA Basketball Season
The 2016-17 college basketball season has only just begun, but we've seen enough to throw preseason projections into the trash in favor of slightly outlandish, knee-jerk reactions.
Don't act like you don't do it, too. Y'all were all over Twitter crowning Indiana as the best team in the country after one game and burying Connecticut after both of its losses.
We're all guilty of it. There's no earthly way you managed to watch every game that has been played thus far. Even the most devoted, multitelevision viewer probably only caught 10 percent of the action. Thus, we overreact to the small samplings of product we actually saw on the court while also occasionally scrolling through the national scoreboard in search of surprise results.
Rather than pretend it doesn't happen, we might as well embrace it with a detailed list of some of the conclusions we've come to after less than a week of action.
Is Frank Mason III now the front-runner for the Wooden Award?
Was Tuesday night the last time Duke will lose all season?
Always believe in Tom Izzo in March, but are the Spartans even good enough to make the tournament?
Read on for our thoughts on those and other knee-jerk reactions to the first 3 percent of the season.
Reliance on the Long Ball Continues to Rise
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Knee-Jerk Reaction: Between Villanova's national championship and the Golden State Warriors' success over the past few years, teams are more willing to rely on three-pointers than ever.
I fully appreciate that comparing stats from the first few days of nonconference play to those from an entire season is an exercise in futility. Officials are putting more of an emphasis on rule tweaks that players haven't had a chance to adjust to, and the general level of competitiveness is nothing compared to what it is from January onward.
Still, it bears mentioning that reliance on the long ball is up for a third consecutive season.
From 2009-14, the percentage of field-goal attempts coming from behind the arc barely changed at all. According to KenPom.com, the highest it went during that six-year stretch was 33.1 percent in 2009, while the lowest came the following year at 32.6 percent. Individual teams fluctuated a ton, but on a national scale, that rate stayed quite steady.
In 2015, though, it jumped to 34.2 percent before soaring to 35.4 percent last year. And through the first four days of the 2016-17 season, we're up another 1.3 percent to 36.7.
That may not seem like much, but at that percentage, there would have been a total of 8,859 more three-pointers attempted last season. With pace of play also on the rise (more on this on the next slide), it's more like 10 or 11 thousand more shots from downtown this year.
The stretch 5 revolution is at least partially to blame. Big men like Indiana's Thomas Bryant, Arizona's Lauri Markkanen, Oregon's Chris Boucher, Gonzaga's Killian Tillie and Purdue's Caleb Swanigan have shown no fear to let it fly, which, in turn, frees up other shooters for open looks.
But the recent championships three-point shooting teams won are probably the main culprit. Villanova shot 50.0 percent from beyond the arc in winning the 2016 NCAA tournament and averaged nearly 19 attempts per game. And the Golden State Warriors won about a billion games last year with Steph Curry annihilating the all-time record for made three-pointers in a season.
It's early, but at the very least, it's a ratio to keep an eye on as the season progresses.
Pace of Play Is Up, But at What Cost?
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Knee-Jerk Reaction: Scoring and tempo have increased, but the product is suffering for it.
Indiana vs. Kansas sure was a fun game on opening night, right? James Blackmon Jr. and Frank Mason III going mano e mano for a combined 56 points. Thomas Bryant and Carlton Bragg Jr. showing us something as sophomore power forwards. All in all, it was a great overtime affair between deep teams that might meet again in April.
But it was also a very sloppy and physical game. There were a combined 29 turnovers and 63 personal fouls. The earlier game between Arizona and Michigan State didn't have quite as many whistles, but there were three more turnovers in five fewer minutes.
Lower-profile games were even uglier. Playing in one of their only nationally-televised games of the season, Winthrop and Manhattan combined for 68 personal fouls and 85 free-throw attempts. North Florida vs. Auburn featured 50 fouls and 45 turnovers.
Yes, players and officials are both shaking off more than seven months' worth of rust, and—as mentioned on the previous slide—it's not practical to compare four days of early-season hoops to four months of a previous year.
Still, early returns are suboptimal.
Scoring is up from 146.0 points per game to 152.9 points per game (through Monday's games), but that's almost entirely because average adjusted tempo has gone up from 69.0 to 72.6. Through the start of play on Tuesday, adjusted offensive efficiency had dropped from 103.6 to 101.5.
Are those 6.9 bonus points per game worth the extra 3.3 personal fouls and 3.4 turnovers?
The American Athletic Conference Is Headed for a Brutal Year
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Knee-Jerk Reaction: Connecticut's two early losses will have a long-lasting effect on the AAC's quest for multiple NCAA tournament bids.
It was always going to be a bit of a down year for the AAC. Memphis and Tulsa are both rebuilding after losing a ton of key players. Houston, Temple and SMU also had multiple holes in the starting lineup to fill. And East Carolina, South Tulane, Tulane and UCF haven't finished a year with an overall record above .500 since the AAC became a conference before the 2013-14 season.
Connecticut was supposed to be the best team, ranked No. 18 in the preseason AP Top 25, but that went up in flames in a hurry with season-opening home losses to Wagner and Northeastern. (And Wagner proceeded to lose to UMass-Lowell three nights later, so that eyesore is only going to get uglier as we approach Selection Sunday.)
Cincinnati looks good, racking up blocks and steals like it usually does. And Duke transfer Semi Ojeleye has been outstanding for SMU in early games against Gardner-Webb and Eastern Michigan.
What else does this conference have, though?
Temple won the AAC last season, but it needed OT to beat La Salle before losing at home to New Hampshire. We expected Tulsa to struggle, but no one thought the Golden Hurricane would be so bad as to lose at home by double digits to Jacksonville State, 84-73—which was blown out by Missouri State 91-65 two days later.
Connecticut will eventually bounce back to some degree, but right now, the 2017 AAC is looking a lot like the 2016 West Coast Conference. There are two good teams at the top, but aside from the two games played against each other, where will the good wins come from?
Cincinnati has marquee nonconference games against Xavier, Butler, Iowa State, Rhode Island and possibly Duke in the Hall of Fame Tip-Off. SMU's schedule is decidedly lighter with just a road game against USC and neutral-court games against Pitt and either Michigan or Marquette. Depending upon how the Bearcats fare in their aforementioned games, this might be a one-bid league.
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This Will Be the Best Gonzaga Team Ever
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Knee-Jerk Reaction: Gonzaga looks good and hasn't even begun to scratch the surface of its potential.
Washington transfer Nigel Williams-Goss is shooting 32.0 percent from the field and has an assist-to-turnover ratio of just 1.5. Missouri transfer Johnathan Williams III is shooting 16.7 percent from the field and has committed a combined 13 fouls and turnovers in just 35 minutes. Sophomore point guard Josh Perkins was suspended for the opener and did not play well in game No. 2.
Yet, Gonzaga is 2-0 with a pair of wins by a margin of more than 20 points.
Granted, Utah Valley isn't even a contender to win the Western Athletic Conference, and San Diego State is right up there with Arizona and Michigan State for most riddled-with-injuries team in the country. Still, the Zags smoked those teams without getting much of anything from three of the five guys that were projected to be starters.
What they have gotten, though, is outstanding play from Cal transfer Jordan Mathews, who is shooting 64.3 percent from three-point range with seven assists and no turnovers. Fifth-year senior Przemek Karnowski looks good after missing most of last season due to back surgery. And freshmen Killian Tillie and Zach Collins look like guys who are more than talented enough to steal a lot of minutes from the veterans in the frontcourt.
In due time, Williams, Williams-Goss and Perkins will come around, and Gonzaga could have one of the country's five best seven-man rotations.
Put it this way: It's not crazy to look at the schedule and start to wonder where the first loss might come from.
The Bulldogs play in the Advocare Invitational over Thanksgiving weekend, but the toughest possible route to the title would be Quinnipiac, Seton Hall and Iowa State. The Pirates and Cyclones are good, but Gonzaga is the clear favorite to win that tourney. Other than that, a neutral-court game against Arizona in early December is the only viable loss until at least February, and that game is, at worst, a toss-up.
I'm not saying Gonzaga is going to enter the NCAA tournament with an undefeated record, but are you prepared to rule out that possibility?
No Ron Baker. No Fred VanVleet. No Problem.
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Knee-Jerk Reaction: Wichita State's Gregg Marshall is going to get quite a few votes for National Coach of the Year.
Between the 2013 Final Four and the 35-0 start to the following season, we came to know and love the Wichita State Shockers. Cleanthony Early was the star for a couple of years, followed by the reign of Fred VanVleet, Ron Baker, Tekele Cotton, Darius Carter and Evan Wessel. It felt like those guys were there forever.
But now they're all gone, replaced by names and faces that are about as anonymous to the general college basketball public as the backup point guard for Prairie View A&M.
Yet, Wichita State continues kicking butt and taking names just like any other year.
The Shockers won their first two games against South Carolina State and Long Beach State by a combined margin of 83 points without getting more than 15 points from a single player in either game. In fact, after two games, they were averaging 89.0 points per game as a team without any individual averaging so much as 10.
Something of a lite version of West Virginia's ability to dominate regardless of the roster construction, Wichita State has been like a swarm of locusts thus far this season.
There will eventually be some names worth knowing. Markis McDuffie was their highest-scoring player last year and already looks the part of a go-to guy whenever that becomes necessary. Zach Brown and Shaquille Morris weren't far behind McDuffie on the scoring list and have been solid as starters in the frontcourt. JUCO transfer Darral Willis Jr. has proved to be a great addition. Getting Landry Shamet back from injury after playing just three games last year hasn't hurt, either.
But the one name at this program that everyone knows is Gregg Marshall.
Under his watch, Wichita State has been to five consecutive NCAA tournaments, winning an average of 29.6 games per season. Based on early returns, it's just going to be more of the same this year. It should only be a matter of time before the Shockers are back in the AP Top 25 where they belong. And if they can put together another 30-win season with this roster, Marshall will be one heck of a candidate for National Coach of the Year.
Creighton Is Final Four Good
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Knee-Jerk Reaction: After knocking off Wisconsin, Creighton is going to upset the balance of power in the Big East.
With four seniors and Ethan Happ in their starting lineup, the Wisconsin Badgers are supposed to be one of the country's best teams right now. But Creighton took care of business against them with a ton of help from two young guys most casual fans have never seen.
For the Bluejays, it was all about the transfers all offseason long. Marcus Foster (Kansas State) joining forces with Mo Watson (Boston) and Cole Huff (Nevada) was going to result in a Top 25 team capable of a decent run in March.
However, those guys didn't even play that well in the 79-67 win over Wisconsin. Huff had just four points and three rebounds. Foster needed 15 shots to get his 15 points and did little else. Watson had a solid 17 points, 10 assists and four steals, but he also had five turnovers and was barely a factor in the 19-4 second-half run that gave Creighton the lead for good.
Rather, Justin Patton and Khyri Thomas were the stars during that critical stretch.
Thomas had 15 of his team-high 18 points in the second half, including one 24-second sequence in which he had a steal, an and-one layup and a three-pointer to push the lead to double digits. Patton was also pivotal in the run with a pair of buckets and an offensive rebound that led directly to three more points.
Both young guys also put up double figures in the season-opening win over Creighton. Not too shabby for a duo we didn't even have projected as starters back in June.
If they continue to contribute at anywhere near that level, Creighton might just mess around and win the Big East. You've been warned, Villanova.
Move Over, Grayson Allen
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Knee-Jerk Reaction: The early front-runner for National Player of the Year is either the starting point guard of Roy Williams' current team or the starting point guard of his former team.
Everyone was picking Duke's Grayson Allen as the preseason National Player of the Year. But after a lackluster performance in the loss to Kansas in the Champions Classic—he shot 4-of-15 from the field and had to make each of his last three shots just to do that "well"—the door is wide-open for a new favorite.
The man who helped bury the Blue Devils might be the top dog right now. Kansas' Frank Mason III was the KenPom MVP in games against both Indiana and Duke. Though the 5'11" guard is just 1-of-6 from three-point range, he's averaging 25.5 points, 7.0 assists and 5.0 rebounds per game—again, against what should be two of the country's 10 best teams when all is said and done.
Mason had been outstanding over the past two seasons, but he wasn't anywhere near this assertive. In 109 games, he had never scored more than 21 points. But thanks at least in part to foul trouble for Josh Jackson and Carlton Bragg Jr., Mason has become the go-to guy for the Jayhawks. Between their two games, they have attempted six shots in the final 65 seconds of regulation, and Mason was responsible for all six.
If it's not Mason, though, it's got to be North Carolina's Joel Berry II.
The Tar Heels didn't face Duke or Indiana (yet), but through three games against Tulane, Chattanooga and Long Beach State, Berry is averaging 32.4 points per 40 minutes. Building on a woefully underappreciated sophomore season, he's shooting 62.1 percent from the field, 53.3 percent from three-point range and 90.9 percent from the free-throw line.
When he isn't busy scoring, UNC's junior point guard is also averaging 5.3 rebounds per game, 4.3 assists per game and 4.3 assists per turnover. Let's see how he fares in the Maui Invitational before we start engraving any trophies, but it's tough to ignore the leader of an offense averaging 95.0 points in a trio of blowout wins.
Duke Is Going to Be Unbeatable by March
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Knee-Jerk Reaction: Nearly beating Kansas while short-handed and inefficient proves Duke is even more of a favorite to win the national championship than we originally thought.
It's not easy to look like the best team in the nation while losing, but the Blue Devils pulled it off.
Try to picture this scenario: Kentucky's De'Aaron Fox, Bam Adebayo and Malik Monk are all sitting on the bench in street clothes watching Isaiah Briscoe—though the only player on the team who isn't dealing with foul trouble—struggle to put the ball in the hoop. And in that game, the Wildcats are facing one of the country's five best teams.
You would expect them to lose about as badly as they defeated Kansas in the Champions Classic two years ago (72-40), right?
But Duke almost beat Kansas without Harry Giles, Jayson Tatum or Marques Bolden, despite Grayson Allen opening the game shooting 1-of-12 from the field.
Unless you count Javin DeLaurier's brief, statistic-less appearance after Amile Jefferson fouled out, Duke only played six guys, and the whistles quickly piled up against them. With 14 minutes remaining in the game, both Jefferson and Matt Jones already had four fouls, while Chase Jeter and Luke Kennard were saddled with three apiece.
Allen had what might be his worst game of the season. Jefferson committed seven turnovers and never got going on the glass. For significant chunks of the game, it was Luke Kennard or bust.
Yet, they somehow managed to remain close enough to mount a comeback, tying the game with 20 seconds remaining before falling just short of victory.
To be fair, Kansas isn't anywhere near the finished product it will be, either. But how can anyone expect to beat the Blue Devils if and when they're finally healthy?
Kentucky Might Also Be Unbeatable in March
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Knee-Jerk Reaction: There's work to be done, but Kentucky demonstrated in blowing out Michigan State that this should be one of John Calipari's upper-echelon rosters.
Kentucky has always been good under Calipari. Even including that infamous Robert Morris season, the Wildcats had won better than 82 percent of their games over the past seven seasons. During that same stretch, Kansas won every Big 12 title, was either a No. 1 or No. 2 seed in each NCAA tournament and narrowly edged out Kentucky by winning 83 percent of its games.
But when the Wildcats find that extra gear, yikes.
In their three best seasons, they went a combined 111-6 (94.9 winning percentage). And though games remaining against North Carolina, Louisville and Kansas will keep rational people from engaging in the 40-0 discussion, early returns are that this is going to be one of those "make opponents look silly en route to a No. 1 seed" rosters.
Malik Monk, De'Aaron Fox and Isaiah Briscoe have already emerged as Kentucky's new three-headed backcourt monster. They combined for 56 points Tuesday night, while Michigan State scored just 48 as an entire team. Free-throw shooting has plagued Calipari's teams in years past, but those three guys are currently shooting a combined 90.5 percent from the charity stripe, including Fox going 21-of-21.
Once the big men catch up with the guards, get ready for something special.
Of course, that was the narrative one year ago, and we're still waiting to find out whether Skal Labissiere can actually play basketball. It's within the realm of possibility that Bam Adebayo and Sacha Killeya-Jones follow in his footsteps by never fully adjusting to playing at this level.
Adebayo has looked good when he's not in foul trouble, though, averaging roughly 15 points, 10 rebounds and three blocks per 40 minutes. He has a long way to go to become the unstoppable force in the paint everyone was expecting, but the potential is there. And the combined force of Isaac Humphries and Wenyen Gabriel should be able to hold down the fort until he gets there.
Michigan State Is in Trouble
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Knee-Jerk Reaction: Miles Bridges is No. 1 on the list of players we want to watch as often as possible, but the Spartans currently look like they have no business being mentioned among the Big Ten's best teams.
In the 74 minutes since shocking Arizona (and the entire country, for that matter) by jumping out to a 17-2 lead in the season opener, Michigan State has been outscored 132-94 by two teams that are every bit as inexperienced. In fact, according to KenPom.com, the Spartans rank 311th in experience, ahead of both Arizona (314th) and Kentucky (330th).
So, if you've been brushing off these early struggles under the theory they're young and need time for all that talent to develop, what's the excuse for looking bad against even younger teams? Don't bother bringing up injuries, either, unless you want to be handed the world's tiniest violin by Arizona fans who thought they'd be watching Ray Smith and Allonzo Trier light up the scoreboard right now. By comparison, Gavin Schilling and Ben Carter are minor losses.
The fact of the matter is that this team just isn't any good right now.
Eron Harris was supposed to be the second coming of Travis Trice—a decent scorer who exploded into a go-to weapon as a senior leader. Instead, he has nine points and seven turnovers through two games and spent most of the loss to Kentucky riding the pine.
The only reliable source of offense is Miles Bridges, and things are going to look ugly when your best weapon is shooting 36.7 percent from the field and averaging 6.5 turnovers. (The guy sure can throw down a dunk, though.)
The Spartans should be alright once they get healthy and get more from their other freshmen, but can we admit it was a bit foolish to assume Tum Tum Nairn was suddenly going to figure things out and be the general of this offense after beginning his career with two painfully inefficient seasons? He wasn't any better than Kaleb Joseph was at Syracuse, yet, no one seemed to have any problem counting Nairn as one of this team's veteran leaders.
This start is hardly unexpected. In fact, I said last month that the Spartans were almost certainly headed for at least four losses just in November—the two they already have, the road game against Duke and a Battle 4 Atlantis Championship Game against Louisville. I didn't think they'd look this bad, though.
Stats are courtesy of KenPom.com and Sports-Reference.com. Recruiting information is courtesy of Scout.
Kerry Miller covers college basketball for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @kerrancejames.
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