2016-17 NBA Rookie Ladder: Early Progress Reports and Rankings
In a year of the unpredictable becoming commonplace, at least one prognostication has held true: The 2016 NBA draft was lamented for a lack of top-tier talentย andย depth.
None of the most recent draftees have made much of a dent in the league's landscape.
It doesn't help that No. 1 overall pick Ben Simmons is still on the shelf following foot surgery. Nor does it seem that anyone taken behind him is yet ready for a starring role.
Then again, it's earlyโroughly two-weeks-into-the-season early. And, to be fair, this year's class isn't limited to guys who heard their names called in New York this past June. The current crop is replete with international draft-and-stash prospects and at least one star-in-waiting whose debut was delayed by season-long injuries.
All of which is to say that November is no time to panic about the Association's future. Instead, let's take stock of where the top 15 rookies standโbased on production and team impactโand keep tabs on where and how they end up.
Lottery Picks Who Missed the Cut
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Ben Simmons, PF, Philadelphia 76ers (No. 1 Pick)
Ben Simmons has yet to play a single minute of regular-season NBA basketball. There's no telling when he'll be back from foot surgery, though when he does return, he'll likely do so as the Philadelphia 76ers' point guard.
"My intention is to give him the ball," Sixers head coach Brett Brown told ESPN.com's Nick Metallinos. "I think that ultimately he's going to be groomed to be a point guard."
Dragan Bender, PF, Phoenix Suns (No. 4 Pick)
Bad news for Phoenix Suns fans hoping to find another savior in Dragan Bender: The 18-year-old Croatian has scored during just two games so far and did not play in three.
The good news? In each of those two games, Bender finished with 10 points. The latest came during a 23-minute stint in a narrow loss to the Portland Trail Blazers on Tuesday.ย If he can carve out consistent playing time, he should move into the top 15 of this list in short order.ย
Thon Maker, PF, Milwaukee Bucks (No. 10 Pick)
Thon Maker's first NBA points came on back-to-back threes in garbage time of an 18-point Milwaukee Bucks win over the Indiana Pacers on Nov. 3.
"It was awesome," Maker said, per the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel's Matt Velazquez. "That's called being ready. Everybody, my whole team, basically, the coaches, they tell me to stay ready all the time, every single game."
If Maker gets more minutesโhe's played only 12 across three appearances, with five DNPsโhe should do enough to crack the rookie ladder before too long.
Taurean Prince, SF, Atlanta Hawks (No. 12 Pick)
Taurean Prince has been DeMarre Carroll's doppelganger in more ways than one. Aside from being a spitting image of the former Atlanta Hawks swingmanโboth players are 6'8" with roughly the same wingspansโPrince has been slow to garner many minutes at all, let alone consistent ones. Through his first eight games, he logged 21 total minutes and four DNPs.
Georgios Papagiannis, C, Sacramento Kings (No. 13 Pick)
After being inactive in six straight games to start his NBA career, Georgios Papagiannis finally saw the floor during garbage time of the Sacramento Kings' 26-point loss to the Bucks last Saturday. The giant Greek logged more fouls (three) than points (two), though the lone bucket he scored came on a dunk.
He hasn't seen any game action since.
Denzel Valentine, SG, Chicago Bulls (No. 14 Pick)
With Michael Carter-Williams on the shelf for the next month or so, Denzel Valentine could have the opportunity to earn a significant role off the Chicago Bullsย bench. Then again, with a trio of lead guards (i.e., Jimmy Butler, Dwyane Wade and Rajon Rondo) already on the roster, the Michigan State product isn't likely to draw many touches even if he does play more.
15. Wade Baldwin, PG, Memphis Grizzlies (No. 17 Pick)
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After a solid start to his rookie season, Wade Baldwin could be on the outs for the time being. The Vanderbilt product has notched two straight DNPs for the Memphis Grizzlies, with Andrew Harrison usurping his minutes as Mike Conley's understudy.
Prior to that, Baldwin had drawn consistent time in the River City. He averaged 20.8 minutes through his first six games, including a start during Memphis' blowout loss to the Minnesota Timberwolves on Nov. 1, when Conley and Marc Gasol both sat.
Not that Baldwin lost the gig without reason. This season, he's shot 28.6 percent from the field (25 percent from three), though he at least registered more assists (21) than turnovers (12).
Still, on a Grizzlies team loaded with veterans, a step back now could be in Baldwin's best interest over the long haul.
"To be honest, I feel bad for the league," Baldwin told Basketball Insiders' Moke Hamilton, "because in four years, five years from now, I could be the most polished young guy out."
14. Andrew Harrison, SG, Memphis Grizzlies (No. 44 in 2015)
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You might be wondering, "How is Andrew Harrison on this list? I thought he played in the league last year."
Close, but not quite. It was his twin brother, Aaron Harrison, who spent his rookie season with the Charlotte Hornets in 2015-16. Andrew, on the other hand, played in the NBA Development League, where he averaged 18.5 points and 4.9 assists per game for the Iowa Energy.
He has since established himself as a surprisingly important part of the Grizzlies rotation, edging out Baldwin as Conley's backup after starting the first two games of 2016-17 at shooting guard.
Harrison's probably not a strong enough shooter yet to stick at the 2, but he has the requisite size (6'6", 213 lbs) for the position.
If he continues to produce like he did Tuesday against the Denver Nuggets (10 points, six assists and four steals in 26 minutes), he'll be the one gettingย first crack at the point whenever the Grizzlies decide to give Conley a night off.
13. Tomas Satoransky, SG, Washington Wizards (No. 32 in 2012)
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At the start of a season so far marked by defeats and disappointment, Tomas Satoransky might be one of the brightest spots for the Washington Wizards.
The 25-year-old Czech has been steady with the ball, turning it over five times in his first six appearances. One of those giveaways came against the Orlando Magic last Saturday, when Satoransky added eight points, three assists and two rebounds in 32 minutes as a starter in place of the resting John Wall.
"Iโm not going to forget about this game. It was my first start," Satoransky said, per CSN Mid-Atlantic's J. Michael. "Big dream coming true."
He'll have more opportunities to live out his dream, perhaps as soon as this weekend. According to theย Washington Post's Candace Buckner, Wall will sit again during the Wizards' upcoming back-to-back, thereby opening the door for Satoransky once more.
12. Jamal Murray, SG, Denver Nuggets (No. 7 Pick)
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The start to Jamal Murray's rookie season was positively Anthony Bennett-esque. The Canadian-turned-Kentucky Wildcat-turned Nuggets guard misfired on the first 17 attempts of his NBA career before canning a three against the Detroit Pistons.ย
Murray finished that loss to Motown with nine points. Since then, he's posted another nine in a 16-point win over the Boston Celtics and cracked double digits, first during a one-point defeat in Memphis on Tuesday (10 points on 4-of-7 shooting) and then in a loss to the Golden State Warriors on Thursday (14 points on 5-of-15 shooting).
Murray has the talent to be a factor for the Nuggets. At 6'4", he has the size, shooting touch and ball-handling ability to man either backcourt spot.
But on a squad that already features a pair of young starting guards (Emmanuel Mudiay and Gary Harris), Murray will have to earn every opportunity he gets in the Mile High City. His play over the past week has to be just the beginning.
11. Marquese Chriss, PF, Phoenix Suns (No. 8 Pick)
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Marquese Chriss needed all of two weeks to leap into the Suns' starting lineup at power forward. The 19-year-old marked the occasion by scoring seven points, grabbing four rebounds and blocking one shot in 20 minutes during a narrow defeat to the Trail Blazers on Tuesday.
According to the Arizona Republic's Paul Coro, Chriss' spot in head coach Earl Watson's top five could be "permanent."
"Itโs best for our program," the Suns' head coach said. "Itโs best for the first unit because that is the future of our team. Itโs best for the second unit because we need our second unit to be more impactful. Itโs best for everyone involved because it kind of settles everyone."
If nothing else, it should soon settle any debate about what Phoenix's aims for 2016-17 are or should be. A 3-6 start could be just the beginning of a full-scale rebuild.
Any effort by Phoenix to prioritize the future over the present should involve Chriss, an enticing 6'10" inside-out threat whose physical profile and skill set have already evoked visions of a young Amar'e Stoudemire in the Valley of the Sun.
Judging by his scoreless performance against the Detroit Pistons on Wednesday, though, Chriss will need time before he's ready to live up to such a lofty comparison.
10. Jakob Poeltl, PF, Toronto Raptors (No. 9 Pick)
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For many rookies, early success is the product of circumstance and often the result of a teammate's poor fortune.ย Just ask Toronto center Jakob Poeltl.
The NBA's first Austrian expected to spend most of his debut season with Raptors 905, Toronto's D-League affiliate. Instead, with Lucas Nogueira injured early, he was thrust into head coach Dwane Casey's rotation as Jonas Valanciunas' primary backup. Then he started in place of Valanciunas, who was out with a knee contusion.
So far, Poeltl has held his own in both roles.
Through his first seven games, he averaged 4.4 rebounds and landed among the top 10 in offensive rebound percentage (14.1 percent), per NBA.com. Fouling and finishing remain key areas of concern.ย Poeltl'sย already fouled out twiceโafter being whistled for five infractions in the Raptors' openerโand has converted just 40 percent of his looks within two feet of the hoop, per Basketball-Reference.com.
Fortunately, his performance should improve along with his understanding of NBA basketball and confidence in his own ability.
"How hard he plays, his physicality, how big his hands are once he gets the ball on his hands, his IQ is definitely there, and the more experience he gets, the better he is going to be," DeMar DeRozan said of Poeltl, per theย Toronto Sun's Ryan Wolstat.
9. Pascal Siakam, PF, Toronto Raptors (No. 27 Pick)
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As good as Poeltl has been off the Raptors bench, the surprise of his rise pales in comparison to that of Pascal Siakam.
The New Mexico State product wound up as a starter with the Raptors largely by happenstance. With Jared Sullinger injured,ย Casey insisted on starting Siakam over promoting Patrick Patterson and disrupting his second unit.
Game by game, he's looked less like a fill-in and more like a worthy starter. He burst out of the gate with nine rebounds during Toronto's season-opening win over the Pistons. More recently, he logged his first double-digit scoring game (10 points, six rebounds, one assist, one block) while starting next to Poeltl in a five-point loss to the Kings last Sunday.
When (or if) Sullinger comes back healthy, there's no guarantee he'll be able to dislodge the long, athletic Siakam quickly, if at all.
8. Malcolm Brogdon, SG, Milwaukee Bucks (No. 36 Pick)
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With Khris Middleton out for the year and Carter-Williams traded to Chicago, the Bucks were desperate for guard play beyond what they could squeeze out of Giannis Antetokounmpo and Matthew Dellavedova.
Enter Malcolm Brogdon. The 23-year-old out of Virginia has helped to stabilize Milwaukee's second unit amid Dellavedova's shift into the starting lineup.
Between consecutive wins against the New Orleans Pelicans and Indiana Pacers to open the month of November, he piled up 26 points, nine assists, seven steals and just three turnovers. Through his first eight games in total, he registered an assist-to-turnover ratio of nearly 3-1 and a net rating of plus-6.0, per NBA.comโsecond-best among Bucks reserves who've played in every game.
Brogdon may not be a burgeoning young star like some others in his rookie class. But what he lacks in upside, he makes up for with maturity, poise and intelligenceโall of which are in much shorter supply than is pure talent in Milwaukee.
7. Buddy Hield, SG, New Orleans Pelicans (No. 6 Pick)
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Buddy Hield has thus far struggled to live up to the sharpshooting reputation that made him a collegiate sensation at Oklahoma. Through nine games, he's hit just 12-of-51 (23.5 percent) from three, including a 1-of-7 showing from deep during the Pelicans' 102-94 defeat to the Kings on Tuesday.
On the bright side, Hield finished that showing with 14 pointsโhis second-most as a pro. He shot a sturdy 5-of-9 on two-pointers in California's capital, with one miss coming courtesy of a DeMarcus Cousins swat.
All told, Hield has been solid from inside the arc. According to Basketball-Reference.com, he's made nearly 50 percent of his two-point shots and another 40 percent from 16 feet to the three-point line.
But with the team's top perimeter players (Jrue Holiday, Tyreke Evans and Quincy Pondexter) on the shelf, the Pelicans need Hield to start hitting treys if they're going to turn around their 1-8 start to the 2016-17 campaign.
6. Kris Dunn, PG, Minnesota Timberwolves (No. 5 Pick)
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Before the season started, The Vertical's Adrian Wojnarowski reported the Timberwolves would wait "approximately 20 games" to make Kris Dunn their starting point guard and seriously entertain trading Ricky Rubio.
Fate has already derailed head coach Tom Thibodeau's plans on both fronts. Rubio sprained his elbow in Sacramento on Oct. 29, knocking him out of the lineup (and, presumably, trade talks) while clearing the way for Dunn to start.
The Providence grad has had his moments as Minnesota's go-to floor general. During his first start on Nov. 1, he put up 10 points, six assists, four rebounds and five steals in a blowout win over the short-handed Grizzlies. Two nights later, he logged nine assists, five rebounds and three steals during a narrow loss to the Nuggets.
Scoring, though, hasn't been his strong suit. Since that double-digit effort against Memphis, Dunn has tallied a total of 12 points on 4-of-18 shooting (22.2 percent).
Not that he needs to put up points, what with Karl-Anthony Towns, Andrew Wiggins and Zach LaVine doing the heavy lifting in that regard. And not that Rubio (36.8 percent from the field, 31.7 percent from three for his career) is any more effective a shooter than Dunn (36.4 percent from the floor, 42.9 percent from deep).
Still, with Rubio on the mend, Dunn must state his case as the long-term starter soon if he's to hang on to that gig for good.
5. Brandon Ingram, SF, Los Angeles Lakers (No. 2 Pick)
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Brandon Ingram is a long way from stardom, but with each passing game, he drops new and enticing hints of what's to come as the youngest member of the Los Angeles Lakers core.
His length and his agility are already giving opponents problems on the defensive endโand not just run-of-the-mill marks, asย Sports Illustrated's Andrew Sharp noted: "In the meantime, Brandon Ingram is 19 years old and already guarding superstars every night."
More remarkable is that a slender 6'9" teenager is already playing some point with the Lakers' second unit. He's shown an ability to get to the hoop and either draw a foul or find an open teammate.
Granted, consistency isn't yet a part of Ingram's vocabulary. All 21 of his free-throw attempts have come in four games, with nary a trip to the foul line between the other five.
But on a team that already features plenty of playmakers, youthful and veteran alike, Ingram doesn't have to be the man just yet. In the meantime, the Lakers can let him feel his way through the NBA while his frame and his game continue to mature.
4. Jaylen Brown, SF, Boston Celtics (No. 3 Pick)
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Jaylen Brown's days as a starter for the Celtics might already be numbered. During just his third pro start in place of the injured Jae Crowder, Brown scored only two points in 13 minutes, while Marcus Smart (20 points) provided more punch on both ends.
As a result, a swap between Brown and Smart seems all but assured to MassLive.com's Jay King.ย
To his credit, the 20-year-old out of Cal has had his moments: Against the Cleveland Cavaliers on Nov. 3, he dropped 19 points on 8-of-16 from the field to help Boston keep pace with the defending champs sans Crowder and the concussed Al Horford.
There's nothing wrong with Brown's going back to the bench. If the C's had their druthers, they'd probably prefer to bring him along slowly while veterans such as Crowder, Smart, Horford, Isaiah Thomas and Avery Bradley lead the way for an Eastern Conference contender.
Either way, short of getting two of its wounded starters back, Boston will need to squeeze something out of Brown if it's to tick above .500.
3. Dario Saric, PF, Philadelphia 76ers (No. 12 Pick in 2014)
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The 76ers were winless until Friday, but not for a lack of effort from Dario Saric. The draft-and-stash rookie from Croatia by way of Turkey registered his first NBA double-double (14 points and 12 rebounds with three assists and two blocks) during Philly's 122-115 overtime loss to the Pacers on Wednesday.
This, after Saric combined to account for seven points and nine boards between games against the Cavaliers and Utah Jazz. Prior to that, the 22-year-old popped off for 21 points with three triples against Orlando and another 14 points and seven boards at Charlotte's expense during a November-opening back-to-back.
All of that counts as a vast improvement over his first two games, when he went just 4-of-21 overall and 1-of-7 from deep. For Saric, it's been a matter of adjusting to the disparity in rules and the style of play between Europe and America.
"Itโs hard because here the pick-and-roll game is a little bit down the three-point line," he said, per CSNPhilly.com's Jessica Camerato. "In Europe, when you play pick-and-roll games and you make a screen, you are already on the three-point line."
Saric should find himself there plenty over the course of his rookie campaign, especially after hitting 47.4 percent (9-of-19) from behind the arc in the early going.
2. Domantas Sabonis, PF, Oklahoma City Thunder (No. 11 Pick)
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The Oklahoma City Thunder weren't exactly starved for power forwards coming into the season. They'd acquired Ersan Ilyasova over the summer and brought back Enes Kanter off their bench.
Yet neither could dislodge Domantas Sabonis from the starting spot he claimed next to center Steven Adams. Ilyasova's since been shipped to Philadelphia, and Kanter remains OKC's sixth man.
Sabonis, meanwhile, is earning his keep. Through his first nine games, the Gonzaga product averaged eight points and 3.7 rebounds while hitting 13-of-25 (52 percent) from three in just under 22 minutes per game.
He was particularly important to and impressive during the Thunder's 97-85 win over the Miami Heat on Monday, when he logged his first double-double (15 points, 10 rebounds) as a pro.
"He can post, he can shoot the three, he can rebound, he can put it on the floor, he can create," Thunder head coach Billy Donovan said, per the Norman Transcript's Fred Katz. "So, I think the more comfortable he gets, the better and better heโs gonna play."
1. Joel Embiid, C, Philadelphia 76ers (No. 3 Pick in 2014)
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Just five games into his NBA career, Joel Embiid had the player efficiency rating (PER) of an All-Star. According to ESPN.com, Embiid's mark of 24.47 put him on the edge of the league's top 25 players, and his sixth game approximately maintained that mark.ย
However you feel about that all-encompassing stat, it roughly reflects how productive Embiid has been. On a per-36-minute basis, the No. 3 pick from 2014 is averaging 30.6 points on 44.7 percent shooting (58.3 percent from three), with 11.1 rebounds, 3.8 blocks, 0.8 steals, 2.2 assists and a whopping 13 free-throw attempts.
His actual numbers are considerably more modest, since he's averaged 18.8 minutes per game rather than 36. That's by design; the Sixers are playing it safe with Embiidย after waiting for two years while he recovered from foot fractures.
Even Embiid's been surprised by the way Philadelphia has handled him with kid gloves.ย
"They told me that [Monday]," Embiid said after learning the Sixers would hold him out of Wednesday's game against the Pacers, per the Bucks County Courier Times' Tom Moore. "I mean, I want to play more, but they care about me, and I'm going to follow whatever they have planned for me."
All stats accurate through Friday's games.
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