UFC 205 Primer: Donald Cerrone vs. Kelvin Gastelum: A Head-to-Toe Breakdown
UFC 205 is not just historic because it marks the UFC's first event in New York City. The show's trio of title fights, litany of stars and overwhelming collection of talent have UFC 205 set up to be the promotion's most memorable show since UFC 100.
Contributing to the prestige of the card is a showdown between high-action welterweights Donald Cerrone and Kelvin Gastelum.
Cerrone joined the welterweight ranks after his lightweight title run ended with a disappointing defeat to then-champion Rafael dos Anjos. Since changing weight classes, Cerrone has looked dominant, reeling off three straight wins, including a submission and a pair of knockouts.
Gastelum has rotated wins and losses over his past four outings but enters the bout on the heels of a big victory over former champion Johny Hendricks. A win against Cerrone would place Gastelum squarely in the title picture at 170 pounds.
In anticipation of UFC 205, Bleacher Report investigates the matchup, examining which fighter holds an advantage in which theater of combat, and which fighter is more likely to win.
Striking
1 of 5
Both Cerrone and Gastelum are sound technical strikers. Both guys are also very active. And both guys, under the right circumstances, will give in to the temptation to indulge in a little brawling.
This should be a good one.
Cerrone has been an effective striker for years, but he's never looked better since making the move to welterweight. While maintaining the speed and accuracy that has always set him apart, he has now developed the power to match, something evidenced by knockouts of durable foes Rick Story and Patrick Cote.
Power is a useful tool for a guy that lands 4.1 strikes per minute, according to FightMetric.
Gastelum lands 3.89 strikes per minute, which is also impressive. And though he isn't as accurate as Cerrone, he does a better job of avoiding incoming attacks. He's also shown the durability to shake off punches that make it through.
A case could be made for either fighter here, but Cerrone has simply looked like too good of a striker to not get the edge. His diverse arsenal, accurate attacks and newfound power make the difference.
Edge: Cerrone
Grappling
2 of 5
For much of his career, Cerrone has seemed a little apathetic toward takedowns. He was happy to keep things upright and relied more on the threat of his submission offense than his sprawl to deter his opponents' efforts.
But that is no longer the case. After Cerrone defeated K.J. Noons three years ago, he explained that he was making a conscious effort to use his wrestling more. Though it hasn't always been as obvious as it was that night, the claim has become reality. Cerrone now boasts usable offensive wrestling and solid defense to go with his plethora of other tools.
Gastelum's career trajectory, on the other hand, was grappling-centric to start, but it has quickly shifted toward a striking preference. Nevertheless, he retains high-level grappling skills, which have allowed him to succeed on half the takedown attempts he has made, according to FightMetric.
Gastelum has mostly been solid defensively, but he was exposed to some extent by Neil Magny, who took him down six times in five rounds. Despite that hiccup, Gastelum earns the nod in this area of the fight.
Edge: Gastelum
Submissions
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Cerrone has long had a reputation for being a dangerous striker, something a couple of recent knockouts have validated. But throughout his career, Cowboy has been more inclined to finish his foes via submission.
Of his 31 career victories, 16 are submission compared to just seven knockouts. This is not to say that Cerrone isn't a great striker, but rather that he may be an even better jiu-jitsu player.
Gastelum is by no means easy prey, though. He has never been submitted and has exhibited strong offensive abilities by submitting three opponents with chokes. Unlike Cerrone, Gastelum isn't much of a threat to throw something off his back, but he does mix submission attempts well with his ground and pound.
Still, Gastelum will have to be defensive in this match. Cerrone winning via submission is a plausible outcome, whereas the inverse is a bit far-fetched.
Edge: Cerrone
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X-Factors
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Cerrone's X-Factor: Don't think about what comes next
Cerrone has looked downright unstoppable since making the move to welterweight. It seems that an eventual title shot is a foregone conclusion, but there were times when this was true during his lightweight tenure.
Cowboy has been unable to get the big wins required to really make his mark. Mostly, he would come within striking distance of a title shot only to be sent back down the ladder. He did fight for the title last December, but that performance is better forgotten.
Perhaps Cerrone's losses in title fights and title eliminators are coincidences rather than habit, but he needn't put undo pressure on himself against Gastelum. The welterweight picture is murky and a laudable performance may put him in position to challenge for the strap. But the way things are going, Cerrone simply needs to look at the contest as just another fight.
Gastelum's X-Factor: Fight for 15 minutes
Gastelum has just two losses in his career, and both were split decisions. Knowing that a few more strikes or a defended takedown may have made the difference has to be frustrating. Perhaps it will inspire Gastelum to maintain focus for a full 15-minute fight.
Gastelum sometimes looks terrific and lethargic on the same night, alternating blistering stretches with tentativeness and defensive errors. That's dangerous against an opponent that never stops pouring it on, and it will almost certainly result in a decision loss or a stoppage.
Gastelum will need to be on from bell to bell if he hopes to pull off the upset at UFC 205.
Prediction
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Cerrone vs. Gastelum has the potential to be a very fun fight. Both guys are versatile, skilled and aggressive. If both rise to the occasion, this may be the Fight of the Night.
While it might end up being the kind of contest that has no losers, even those have just one winner. In this case, that will be Cerrone, who is the more dangerous fighter on both feet and mat.
Gastelum can pull off the upset if he mixes his striking and wrestling well and prevents Cerrone from sweeping or throwing up submissions from the bottom. But that's an order he isn't likely to fill.
Cerrone will eventually pull away and earn the victory inside the distance.
Prediction: Cerrone def. Gastelum, TKO, Rd. 3
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