Big Ten Basketball: Preview and Predictions for 2016-17 Season

The Big Ten lost a lot of star power from last season, leaving people to wonder whether the conference will be as strong in 2016-17 as it usually is.

Gone are Michigan State all-American and Big Ten player of the year Denzel Valentine, as well as three other members of last season’s five-man first-team all-conference squad: Yogi Ferrell of Indiana, Jarrod Uthoff of Iowa and A.J. Hammons of Purdue.

However, the conference benefited from the new rule that allows players to test their NBA draft status in the spring but return to school if they are not slotted high enough. Nigel Hayes of Wisconsin, Caleb Swanigan of Purdue, Melo Trimble of Maryland, James Blackmon Jr. of Indiana and Peter Jok of Iowa all declared for the draft last spring before deciding to return to school. All five will play a significant role in determining this season's Big Ten champion. 

Every Big Ten team has issues, and none looks like a powerhouse on paper. But several teams linger just below the elite level, with the potential to break through as a Final Four contender if things fall into place.

With the top four Big Ten contenders—Wisconsin, Michigan State, Indiana and Purdue—clustered together between ninth and 15th in the preseason Associated Press rankings, it looks like another mad scramble for the conference title and NCAA tournament berths. It also leaves room for a surprise team to sneak into title contention.

We will take a look at how things might shake out and which players might do the shaking.

Top Storylines

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Will the Big Ten’s reputation as a basketball conference take a hit this season?

The apparent lack of a powerhouse team is something new for the Big Ten. Wisconsin, at No. 9, is the highest-ranked team in the Associated Press preseason poll, and it is the first time in eight years the Big Ten has not had a team ranked in the preseason top three. Not since the 2002-03 preseason poll has the highest ranked Big Ten team been slotted as low as Wisconsin is this season.

Seven Big Ten teams received NCAA tournament bids last season, tied for the most of any conference, and nine Big Ten teams won at least 20 games, more than any other conference. Despite Michigan State’s surprising first-round exit, the Big Ten still had three teams reach the Sweet 16 last season, the ninth straight season the conference had multiple teams in the regional semifinals, as noted by Daniel Wilco of NCAA.com.

All those superlatives are in jeopardy this season. Getting seven teams into the NCAA tournament may be a chore with only four or five teams looking like shoo-ins.

Will veteran experience or young talent rule the conference?

Wisconsin and Michigan State will seek a conference title with distinctively different rosters. Wisconsin returns all five starters and most of its reserves from its Sweet 16 team of a year ago, making the Badgers a known quantity with plenty of possibilities. Wisconsin forward Nigel Hayes was a first-team all-conference pick, Bronson Koenig was a third-team selection and Ethan Happ was Big Ten freshman of the year.

Michigan State lost all three players who received all-conference recognition last season (Denzel Valentine, Matt Costello and Bryn Forbes) but brings in a freshman class ranked third in the country by Scout and includes two players, Miles Bridges and Josh Langford, rated among the top-25 incoming freshmen. Freshmen-laden teams from Kentucky and Duke have won NCAA championships in the recent past, so perhaps the Spartans and head coach Tom Izzo can do it too.

Can Maryland junior point guard Melo Trimble regain his elite status?

Trimble was a star as a freshman when he averaged 16.2 points and made 41.2 percent of his three-point shots while helping Maryland to a second-place conference finish. That led to him being named the preseason Big Ten player of the year last fall and a major reason Maryland was ranked No. 3 in the 2015-16 preseason AP poll. But Trimble’s scoring average dropped to 14.8 points last season when he made just 31.5 percent of his three-point attempts. Maryland finished tied for third in the conference, and Trimble did not make the first-team all-conference team.

With the Terps’ other four starters from last season’s team gone, the focus will be on Trimble to regain his court dominance and lift the Terps to prominence as he did as a freshman.

Is Wisconsin forward Nigel Hayes the best player in the Big Ten?

As the Big Ten’s only returning first-team all-conference selection, Hayes was the coaches’ logical choice for preseason conference player of the year. Being on a team that is among the favorites to win the Big Ten title adds to Hayes’ acclaim.

But can a 6’8” frontcourt player who shot only 36.8 percent from the field, including 29.3 percent from three-point range, while collecting just 5.8 rebounds a game be considered the Big Ten’s best player? He wasn’t much help in the NCAA tournament last season, when he averaged 9.7 points on 23 percent shooting (9 of 39), including 20 percent on three-pointers (2 of 10), in the Badgers' three postseason games. That is when the best players are expected to shine.

An argument could be made that Hayes won’t even be the best player in his own frontcourt, with Ethan Happ showing promise last season.

Indiana sophomore center Thomas Bryant, who might have been a first-round NBA draft choice if he had left after his freshman season, may be ready to take over as the conference’s most dominant player. Maryland point guard Melo Trimble was named to the AP preseason second-team All-American squad, and Michigan State freshman Miles Bridges and underrated Illinois guard Malcolm Hill should be part of the discussion as well.

Will Northwestern finally get a NCAA tournament berth?

Northwestern is one of just five teams that have been Division I members since the NCAA tournament’s inception in 1939 that have never played in that event. More significant is the fact that the Wildcats are the only team from a power conference that has never received a NCAA tournament bid.

Northwestern was close last season when it went 20-12 overall and 8-10 in the Big Ten, finishing ninth in a conference that got seven NCAA tournament bids. Northwestern has shown improvement in its first three seasons under coach Chris Collins, who has attracted better athletes. With the Big Ten lacking a powerhouse team and Northwestern having some talent to work with, this could be the year that the Wildcats go dancing.

The Favorites

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Wisconsin

Prognosticators always give added weight to how a team fared in the preceding NCAA tournament, which is not always a good predictor. But it's impossible to ignore the fact that the Badgers have their top 10 players back from a team that reached the Sweet 16 last March. Add the fact that senior forward Nigel Hayes is the Big Ten's only returning first-team all-conference selection and redshirt sophomore forward Ethan Happ outplayed Hayes during the NCAA tournament, and you have the makings of a title contender. Clutch guard Bronson Koenig is icing on the cake for Greg Gard, who begins his first full season as head coach.

Purdue

Power forward Caleb Swanigan is the centerpiece of an outstanding frontcourt that should dominate. The loss of all-conference center A.J. Hammons may be offset by the return of 7'2" Isaac Haas, assuming Haas continues to improve. The suspensions of Basil Smotherman and Ryan Cline for the first few games doesn't help, and guard play remains a concern. The Boilermakers' title hopes may depend on what they get from Michigan transfer Spike Albrecht, a point guard who is making a comeback after declaring last December that his basketball career was over following a second hip surgery.

Indiana

Center Thomas Bryant is among the nation's top big men, forward OG Anunoby could be the breakout star of the conference and freshman Devonte Green looks like he will help. The return of James Blackmon Jr., who missed most of last season with a knee injury, gives the Hoosiers a perimeter scoring threat. But for the Hoosiers to repeat as conference champs, they need to fill the sizable void left by the departure of all-conference point guard Yogi Ferrell. Pitt transfer Josh Newkirk may be the answer, with help of Robert Johnson.

Michigan State

Tom Izzo usually relies on veteran players, but with the loss of his top three scorers from last year's 29-6 squad and knee injuries that will sideline Gavin Schilling and Ben Carter for a while, Izzo will depend on four highly touted freshmen. High-flying forward Miles Bridges is the headliner of that incoming class, but nobody can replace all the things that Denzel Valentine did for the Spartans. At least the newcomers do not carry the scars left by the stunning NCAA tournament loss to Middle Tennessee.

The Challengers

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Michigan

Guard Derrick Walton Jr. always seems on the verge of stardom but has never quite gotten there. He needs to get there in his senior season for the Wolverines to be a factor. Senior forward Zak Irvin is another potential star who averaged 11.8 points last season despite coming off back surgery. Healthy now, Irvin and Duncan Robinson give Michigan two solid wing players. Michigan returns all five players who were starters at the end of last season, and if freshman point guard Xavier Simpson is a significant contributor, head coach John Beilein will get into the NCAA tournament again.

Maryland

Everything will revolve around junior point guard Melo Trimble, and the Terps will go as far as he takes them. Four starters, all of whom averaged double figures in scoring, are gone from last season's 27-9 squad. Jared Nickens and some talented freshmen will help, but Maryland needs Trimble to rebound from his subpar sophomore season to challenge for the conference crown. Of course, if Trimble hadn't had a disappointing season, he would probably be in the NBA now.

Ohio State

The Buckeyes lack star players, and that is not a good quality in the Big Ten, especially coming off a season in which they missed the NCAA tournament for the first time since 2008. Keita Bates-Diop, Marc Loving, Kam Williams, JaQuan Lyle and Jae’Sean Tate are still around following the barrage of transfer departures, and each is a solid Big Ten player. Ohio State needs at least one of them to emerge as an all-conference-caliber performer to challenge for the title.

Northwestern

There are two reasons the Wildcats have a chance to post their first winning conference record since 1967-68 and earn their first NCAA tournament berth ever. First is the presence of junior point guard Bryant McIntosh, who is approaching all-conference status. The second is the possibility that sophomore forward Vic Law will meet expectations after being a highly touted recruit. Law had a mediocre freshman season, and missed all of last season with a shoulder injury. 

Illinois

Guard Malcolm Hill can do just about everything, and he was forced to do just that last season with the rash of Illinois injuries. Hill has some backcourt help in Tracy Abrams and Jalen Coleman-Lands, but the pivotal player is center Mike Thorne Jr. Thorne, a transfer from Charlotte, was averaging 12.9 points and 8.5 rebounds before a knee injury ended his 2015-16 season after just eight games. Head coach John Groce desperately needs a good season.

Iowa

Guard Peter Jok was a second-team all-conference selection last season, and he might lead the Big Ten in scoring this season. The problem is that Jok is the Hawkeyes' only proven commodity. Head coach Fran McCaffrey is expecting big things from freshman forward Tyler Cook, and German forward Dominique Uhl might help, but Iowa can't replace Jarrod Uthoff and is still searching for a point guard. This team could sink out of the challenger category if McCaffrey can't plug all the holes.

The Bottom Feeders

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Penn State

Optimism is growing at Penn State, although the Nittany Lions are probably still a year or two away. They have a decent backcourt with juniors Shep Garner and Payton Banks, and head coach Pat Chambers brought in a good recruiting class led by point guard Tony Carr. Penn State also has Connecticut transfer Terrence Samuel to give it a sound backcourt. Penn State has a chance to break out of this bottom-feeder category if things fall into place.

Nebraska

The promise of Tim Miles' second season at Nebraska, when the Huskers went 11-7 in the Big Ten and reached the NCAA tournament, has devolved into mediocrity. Losing top scorer Shavon Shields to graduation was one thing, but losing his other proven player, Andrew White III, over the summer when White decided to transfer to Syracuse was a back-breaker. It leaves Tai Webster and his 10.1 scoring average as the top returning player from a team that went 6-12 in the Big Ten.

Minnesota

The Gophers added a quality recruiting class and three transfers in what looks like a make-or-break year for head coach Richard Pitino. Freshman Amir Coffey should make an immediate impact, and Illinois State transfer Reggie Lynch and Milwaukee transfer Akeem Springs are expected to help right away. Davonte Fitzgerald, a transfer from Texas A&M, suffered a season-ending knee injury in the preseason, continuing the string of injuries, departures, suspensions and legal problems that have crippled the program.

Rutgers

If the Scarlet Knights finish anywhere other than last in the Big Ten, first-year coach Steve Pikiell may get votes for conference coach of the year. The coach who transformed Stony Brook into an America East Conference powerhouse will need time to turn around a Rutgers program that has won just three conference games in its two seasons in the Big Ten. Sophomore Corey Sanders and junior Mike Williams give Pikiell a starting point, but it is just a starting point.

Best Rivalry

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Indiana-Purdue

Although Ohio State and Michigan own one of the best football rivalries in the nation, the best Big Ten basketball rivalry resides in the Hoosier state, where basketball is king. The fact that Indiana and Purdue have had only sporadic football success recently may add to the importance of their meetings on the hardwood.

Indiana-Purdue matchups don't have quite the allure they had when former coaches Bob Knight and Gene Keady were trading steely glances in the 1980s and 1990s, but they remains intense affairs. It was during a game against Purdue in 1985 that Knight had his famous chair-throwing incident, tossing a chair from the Indiana bench across the floor and near an official.

Purdue and Indiana have played each other at least once every year since their first encounter in 1901. Often their games played a major role in determining the Big Ten champ. That was the case last season and is expected to be the case again this season.

Indiana won their only meeting last season, a 77-73 squeaker in Bloomington, Illinois, but the Hoosiers and Boilermakers play each other twice this season, with the teams' talented frontcourts expected to do fierce battle in the paint.

Coaches Under the Most Pressure

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Richard Pitino, Minnesota

Gophers fans started to believe Richard Pitino might be the basketball wizard his father is when Minnesota set a school record for wins (25) in Richard's first season as head coach. Things have gone downhill since. After going 8-10 in the Big Ten in Pitino's first season, the Gophers slipped to 6-12 in his second and to 2-16 last season, when Minnesota lost to Rutgers by 23 points in its final regular-season conference game and by 33 in its Big Ten tournament game against Illinois. Distressing off-court incidents, as noted by the Minneapolis Star-Tribune last March, have not aided Pitino's coaching image. It may make the administration rethink its 2013 decision to hire a 30-year-old coach who had just one season of head-coaching experience at Florida International.

John Groce, Illinois

The negatives are piling up on Groce: injuries, off-the court issues, suspensions and, most importantly, losses. A rash of injuries ruined the Illini last season when they took another step backward and finished 5-12 in the conference. The win total has gone from 23 in Groce's first year to 20 in his second to 19 in his third to 15 last year. Groce has not produced a winning conference record in any of his four seasons, and the Illini have missed the NCAA tournament three straight years, something that has not happened to Illinois since 1977-78 through 1979-80, when only 48 teams participated in the Big Dance. Add the fact that Illinois hired a new athletic director (Josh Whitman) last February, and it's clear Groce needs to do something significant.

Tim Miles, Nebraska

The Huskers thought they had something in Miles' second season in 2014, when he led Nebraska to an 11-7 Big Ten record and its first NCAA tournament berth since 1998. Big things were expected the next season with the presence of preseason all-conference player Terran Petteway, but the Huskers floundered, finishing 12th in the conference. Nebraska could not right itself last season when it finished 11th in the Big Ten, and there is little reason to believe things will get better this season. Even at a football school, Nebraska is unlikely to tolerate a third straight season of finishing 11th or worse in a major conference.

Best Backcourt

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Michigan State Spartans

This choice is based on overall backcourt talent, not on star power.

The Spartans don't have any guards as talented as Illinois' Malcolm Hill or Maryland's Melo Trimble or Indiana's James Blackmon Jr. or Iowa's Peter Jok or Wisconsin's Bronson Koenig or perhaps even Northwestern's Bryant McIntosh. But those six don't have much in the way of accompanying guard talent.

Michigan State has a bunch of guards occupying a position just below the elite level and, as a group, they make up the best backcourt in the Big Ten.

Eron Harris is the best of the Spartans guards, at least in terms of proven ability. He averaged 9.3 points last season, making him the team's leading returning scorer. But remember: He averaged 17.3 points three years ago at West Virginia, so he is capable of putting up big numbers.

The other experienced player in Michigan State's backcourt is Lourawls "Tum Tum" Nairn Jr., a pass-first point guard who was a starter last season until plantar fasciitis derailed him.

The players that put Michigan State's backcourt over the top are the two freshmen guards that are part of a Spartans recruiting class that is ranked No. 3 in the nation by Scout: shooting guard Josh Langford and point guard Cassius Winston. Both are ranked among the nation's top 30 incoming freshmen by Scout, and Michigan State needs both to contribute immediately if the Spartans expect to win a conference title this season.

Versatile forward Miles Bridges, the most talented of Michigan State's freshmen, could even slide into the backcourt in an emergency.

Michigan State may not have the best backcourt in December, but check back in March.

Best Frontcourt

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Purdue Boilermakers

This is a tough choice from among Purdue, Indiana and Wisconsin.

The Badgers boast the only returning first-team all-conference selection in forward Nigel Hayes as well as last season's conference freshman of the year, Ethan Happ, a 6'9" forward who showed in the postseason he could be even better this season.

Indiana counters with center Thomas Bryant, a Big Ten player of the year candidate, and forward OG Anunoby, who hinted during the NCAA tournament that he may be primed for a breakout season.

Ultimately, though, Purdue was given a razor-thin edge over Wisconsin because of its talent and potential across the frontline despite the loss of all-conference center A.J. Hammons.

The Boilermakers have the classic frontcourt in power forward Caleb Swanigan, small forward Vince Edwards and center Isaac Haas.

The 6'9", 250-pound Swanigan is a preseason all-conference choice after finishing second in the Big Ten in rebounding (8.3 rpg) and averaging 10.2 points as a freshman last season. The 6'8" Edwards was the team's second-leading scorer last season, averaging 11.3 points while hitting 40.7 percent of his three-point shots and leading the team in total assists with 100.

The key is Haas, a 7'2" junior who started the first 15 games last season, but averaged just 14.2 minutes per game overall. Despite that limited court time, he was fourth on the team in scoring at 9.8 points per game while shooting 59.4 percent.

Haas scored 25 points and blocked two shots in just 20 minutes of court time in the Boilermakers' exhibition victory over outclassed Southern Indiana. If he can handle the increased playing time and continue to progress, the Boilermakers may have something special up front.

Freshmen to Watch

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Miles Bridges, Michigan State

The versatile, athletic 6'7" Bridges is expected to be an immediate star, and his 33 points, 12-for-14 shooting (including 5-for-5 on three-pointers), eight rebounds and four blocks in 29 minutes of action in the exhibition win over Northwood did nothing to deter that thinking. He followed that with 20 points, seven boards and four blocks in 30 minutes in the final exhibition game against Saginaw Valley State. The expectations are off the chart for this player, whose spectacular dunks are already drawing raves.

Josh Langford, Michigan State

Langford, a 6'6" shooting guard ranked 24th in Scout's rating of incoming freshmen, received only slightly less hype than Bridges and is the second-highest rated Big Ten recruit this year. He was held out of both exhibition games because of minor hamstring issues but is expected to play about 20 minutes in the opener against Arizona. Langford can play several positions.

Cassius Winston, Michigan State

Winston may not be a starter for a while, but it will be tough to keep the talented point guard on the bench after his performances in the two exhibition games. More of a playmaker and leader than a scorer, Winston had nine points and nine assists in 24 minutes against Northwood and had 18 points and six assists in 26 minutes against Saginaw Valley State. Forward Nick Ward is the Spartans' fourth highly touted freshman, and he figures to help, too, although it may take him a little longer to settle in.

Tony Carr, Penn State

Carr is the centerpiece of the what the Centre Daily Times of State College, Pa., called the best recruiting class in Penn State history. Carr is one of three Penn State freshman who played for Philadelphia's Roman Catholic High School team that won a Pennsylvania state title. A point guard and natural floor leader, Carr is someone head coach Pat Chambers can build around. Carr was in the starting lineup for the exhibition game against Lock Haven and tied for the team lead in points with 15 to go along with two assists and two steals. Because of the Nittany Lions' talent shortage, Carr should get plenty of opportunities to showcase his skills immediately.

Anthony Cowan, Maryland

With four starters gone, Maryland coach Mark Turgeon needs immediate help from his strong freshman class, and Cowan was in the starting lineup for the exhibition game against Catawba. Although he is a natural point guard, Cowan will have to defer to Melo Trimble as the floor leader for at least one season. Cowan had 15 points, five assists, two steals and one turnover in 24 minutes against Catawba. Justin Jackson, who did not commit to Maryland until late May, is another Maryland freshman with potential.

Amir Coffey, Minnesota

Ranked as the No. 39 recruit in the class by Scout, Coffey needs to make an immediate impact if Minnesota is to have a respectable season. Coffey is a 6'6" small forward with long arms and a good shooting touch. He was a starter in the Gophers' exhibition game against Bemidji State, collecting six points and a team-high five assists in 33 minutes.

Devonte Green, Indiana

Green was not the Hoosiers' highest rated freshman recruit this year, an honor that went to De'Ron Davis. But Green may make the biggest impact. Although Green was not a starter in the exhibition game against Hope College, he was the team's high scorer with 17 points in just 13 minutes of action. He had been less impressive in the earlier exhibition game against Bellarmine, going scoreless in 11 minutes. Green is still an uncertain commodity. He was not listed among Scout's top 100 recruits for 2016, but he displays the energy and aggressiveness that may pay dividends this season.

Derek Funderburk, Ohio State

It remains to be seen whether Funderburk can make a major impact this season. He came off the bench in the Buckeyes' exhibition game against Walsh, collecting three points and five assists in 12 minutes. The 6'9" Funderburk was ranked the No. 53 recruit by Scout, but sometimes big men take longer to develop. At some point, Funderburk should be a factor, and that could happen by February.

Xavier Simpson, Michigan

Simpson is expected to serve as Derrick Walton's primary backup at point guard this season and become the starting floor leader in coming years. A physical point guard who plays with an edge, Simpson was described by Brendan F. Quinn of mlive.com as a "tough, hiccup-quick fire hydrant with an attitude to match." He is not likely to put up big scoring numbers, and he went scoreless in 14 minutes of action in the exhibition game against Armstrong State. But he should be an integral part of the Wolverines' rotation this season.

All-Conference Teams

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FIRST TEAM

Malcolm Hill, G, Illinois

Being named to the second-team all-conference squad last season while playing for a team that finished 12th in the standings tells you how much respect the coaches have for Hill. He can, and did, play virtually every position for the Illini last year because of injuries and other issues. He should be able to focus on himself more this season.

Melo Trimble, G, Maryland

No longer saddled with the responsibility of getting his standout teammates involved, which was the case last season, Trimble can focus more on his own game. That should result in better statistics and more individual dominance.

Thomas Bryant, C, Indiana

With Yogi Ferrell gone, Bryant will be a bigger focus of the offense, and he should deliver. He averaged 11.9 points and 5.8 rebounds as a freshman despite averaging just 22.6 minutes per game. All those numbers should increase this season. His 19-point game in the Hoosiers' NCAA tournament victory over Kentucky was indicative of what to expect from Bryant this season.

Caleb Swanigan, F, Purdue

Swanigan proved he is strong rebounder as a freshman last season, when he finished second in the conference in that category (8.3 rpg), and we expect him to be a more consistent scorer as a sophomore. His 27-point effort in the March win over Wisconsin and the Badgers' strong frontcourt should be more the norm than the exception this season.

Ethan Happ, F, Wisconsin

Happ, a redshirt sophomore, was the Big Ten freshman of the year last season, and his work in the postseason suggests he is ready to move up a rung on the status ladder. Happ averaged 15.7 points on 63.3 percent shooting and 9.3 rebounds in the Badgers' three NCAA tournament games, and he outplayed his more publicized teammate, Nigel Hayes.

SECOND TEAM

Peter Jok, G, Iowa

Derrick Walton Jr., G, Michigan

James Blackmon Jr., G, Indiana

Nigel Hayes, F, Wisconsin

Miles Bridges, F, Michigan State

Regular-Season Standings

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1. Wisconsin

2. Purdue

3. Indiana

4. Michigan State

5. Michigan

6. Maryland

7. Northwestern

8. Ohio State

9. Illinois

10. Iowa

11. Penn State

12. Nebraska

13. Minnesota

14. Rutgers