UFC 205 Primer: Khabib Nurmagomedov vs. Michael Johnson Head-to-Toe Breakdown
UFC 205 is headlined by a lightweight championship fight, but the main event is not the card's only meaningful lightweight showdown. No. 1 ranked Khabib Nurmagomedov will square off against No. 6-ranked Michael Johnson in an undercard battle that carries strong title implications.
Nurmagomedov returned to the Octagon in April after a two-year absence from competition. By scoring a knockout victory in that contest, he issued notice that his halted title run is now back on track. A win over Johnson might be the last stop before paydirt.
Johnson is coming off the most important win of his career, a knockout of Dustin Poirier. The victory ended a two-fight losing streak and catapulted Johnson up the lightweight ranks. While a triumph over Nurmagomedov might not usher Johnson into contention, it would place him within visible distance of a title shot.
In anticipation of this crucial lightweight contest, we take a look at how Nurmagomedov and Johnson match up.
Striking
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Johnson has put in some underwhelming striking performances. His tussles with Nate Diaz and Beneil Dariush come to mind. But he's also turned in some fantastic showings. His thrashing Joe Lauzon, his defeat of Edson Barboza and his knockout of Dustin Poirier serve as reminders of how dangerous he can be.
Though Johnson wields some power, it's his speed and volume that stand out. These skills enable him to throw with solid accuracy and to post good defensive metrics, but the number that stands out is his 3.94 strikes landed per minute.
Nurmagomedov, perhaps surprisingly, almost matches Johnson's gaudy output. The Russian lands 3.27 strikes per minute, according to FightMetric, and is considerably more accurate with his strikes. Of course, those numbers are inflated by all the time Nurmagomedov spends on top of grounded, untenable opponents.
Nurmagomedov is also a superior defensive striker to Johnson. Whereas he makes foes miss 69 percent of the time, Johnson makes his opponents whiff at 60 percent.
The edge goes to Johnson still, but not by an extensive margin.
Edge: Johnson
Grappling
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Nurmagomedov is averaging 6.71 takedowns per 15 minutes of time in the Octagon, says FightMetric. If you're unfamiliar with standard rates, 6.71 is bordering on absurd. His 49 percent success rate is maybe not quite as ridiculous, but it's still impressive, especially since opponents know his takedowns are coming.
Johnson has a higher success rate, succeeding on 53 percent of his attempts. Of course, he doesn't match the volume of Nurmagomedov, but that's an impressive clip nonetheless.
Defensively, both fighters are stalwarts, foiling over 80 percent of incoming takedown attempts. Nurmagomedov has had to deal with some especially effective grapplers, but Johnson, too, has shown well against varying levels of competition.
The numbers paint a picture of two excellent grapplers, and that matches up with the eye test. But Nurmagomedov's versatility from the clinch, superior top-control and sheer unwavering pursuit of the takedown gives him a leg up. Johnson holds a grappling edge against most fighters, but his UFC 205 opponent is most certainly an exception.
Edge: Nurmagomedov
Submissions
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There's no reason to be coy about this element of the fight. Nurmagomedov is the better submission fighter in every regard. He's more active in hunting the finish, more efficient in sinking in holds and defends better than Johnson does.
If one thing is working in Johnson's favor, it's that the gap has narrowed in recent years. Johnson still generally ignores submissions, but at least his once-porous defense has improved immensely. After being submitted five times in his first 15 fights, Johnson has been submitted just once in his last 12. Nurmagomedov, meanwhile, last submitted an opponent in 2012.
Despite Johnson's development, this remains the most one-sided area of the matchup and may well represent the most probable path to a finish for either fighter.
Edge: Nurmagomedov
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X-Factors
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Nurmagomedov's X-Factor: Getting into a groove
Nurmagomedov returned from a two-year layoff earlier in 2016. He won the fight against late-replacement signee Darrell Horcher at a catchweight, but not without struggling through some dicey moments. It was surprising to see Nurmagomedov in danger, especially against an unheralded counterpart.
Really for the first time, Nurmagomedov appeared vulnerable. We should credit Horcher somewhat, but we can't ignore that Nurmagomedov was coming from a pair of injuries and long absence from competition. He managed to gut out the win, but he'll need to put in a better showing against Johnson.
Nurmagomedov's health, confidence and comfort are variables we can only guess at right now, but the answers will go a long way towards determining the outcome of this fight.
Johnson's X-Factor: Be the good Michael Johnson
Maybe it's general to say Johnson must perform well, but it's also a relevant statement given his historical inconsistencies. Because while his knockout of Dustin Poirier is fresh in the minds of UFC fans, that victory is only one fight removed from two underwhelming defeats.
Before the aforementioned string of fights, Johnson defeated Tony Ferguson, Joe Lauzon and Edson Barboza, while losing to Reza Madadi, Paul Sass and Jonathan Brookins. The opponent barely seems to have a bearing on whether Johnson wins or loses.
If Johnson shows up and fights his best fight, an upset is a real possibility. If he suffers another off day, this will be a beating.
Prediction
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This is a matchup in which the previously referenced X-factors will play a large role.
The version of Johnson that knocked out Dustin Poirier and outstruck Edson Barboza beats a tentative, uncomfortable Nurmagomedov.
If Johnson turns in one of the mulligan-worthy performances that spot his professional record, he doesn't stand a chance, regardless of how on-point Nurmagomedov is.
Of course, Nurmagomedov holds the trump card—performing at the top of his game. There's no version of Johnson, and perhaps no version of any lightweight fighter, who beats that man.
Prediction: Nurmagomedov def. Johnson, submission, Rd. 2
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