UFC 205 Primer: Frankie Edgar vs. Jeremy Stephens: A Head-to-Toe Breakdown
It may not be the main event, but competing in the featured preliminary bout of UFC 205 is still a prestigious honor. Frankie Edgar and Jeremy Stephens will earn that distinction as they head for a featherweight collision that will greatly further the winner's title designs.
Edgar comes into the fight after failing to avenge a loss to Jose Aldo. The losing effort brought Edgar's five-fight win streak to an end. Though certainly a blow to his momentum, Edgar remains firmly in title contention, and a victory over Stephens would help kick-start another championship run.
Stephens has posted mixed results lately, dropping three of his last five matches. Though numerically unimpressive, both recent wins came against lofty competition, including Dennis Bermudez and former bantamweight champion Renan Barao.
In the lead-up to UFC 205, Bleacher Report examines the Edgar-Stephens matchup, investigating the areas of the bout that each man will shine and which is likely to have his hand raised at the end of the evening.
Striking
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An Edgar vs. Stephens matchup quickly summons thoughts of the classic speed and technique vs. power dichotomy. But Stephens is more that just a power puncher. He's actually more accurate than Edgar, according to FightMetric.
To be fair, Edgar is a far more active fighter. His connection rate suffers from his propensity to throw a series of strikes for the purpose of yielding a single connection. Edgar's gaudy output allows him to land a connection, on average, 3.49 times per minute. Stephens hits 2.82 times per minute.
Another consequence of Edgar's superior pace and movement is that he's able to avoid the majority of his opponent's attacks. He dodges or blocks 70 percent of incoming strikes, whereas Stephens defends 61 percent.
Of course, power often functions as an equalizer. Stephens doesn't need to hit as often as Edgar to cause the same amount of damage. Still, in this case, power only partway bridges the gap between the two combatants.
Edge: Edgar
Grappling
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The mixed martial arts careers of both Edgar and Stephens are rooted in wrestling. Even as both have evolved as strikers they retain strong grappling bases.
The takedown success rates of the pair are similar. Edgar succeeds 35 percent of the time and defends 65 percent of his opponents' takedowns. Stephens succeeds 36 percent of the time and defends 65 percent of incoming shots.
Where these similarities diverge, as with striking, is volume. Edgar is far more active in pursuing the takedown. He averages just over 2.5 takedowns per 15 minutes, which is more than a full takedown greater than Stephens.
Two other points of consideration that favor Edgar are level of competition and recent performance. Stephens has completed just three takedowns in his past seven outings, whereas Edgar has scored 21. If we try to qualify that gap by looking at strength of schedule, it only makes Edgar's edge appear more impressive.
Recent defensive metrics also tip Edgar's way. The former lightweight champ hasn't been put on his back since 2012. Stephens, meanwhile, has been taken down in each of his last four fights.
Edge: Edgar
Submissions
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One of Stephens' greatest assets is his ground-and-pound. He's been able to cause a lot of damage to downed opponents and makes striking the focal point of his ground attack. As a result of this strategic decision, Stephens has gone nearly 10 years without making someone tap.
Edgar employs a similar strategy on the mat, but is slightly more opportunistic with his submissions. His 2014 finish of Cub Swanson, in which Edgar choked his wounded prey just before the fight concluded, is a testament to this.
Both fighters are excellent defenders against incoming submissions. Stephens has a few blemishes on his record, but has not been made to tap since 2009. Edgar has never been submitted.
So while submissions are neither man's specialty, Edgar holds a slight advantage both offensively and defensively.
Edge: Edgar
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X-Factors
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Edgar's X-Factor: Focus
There are always multiple swing elements to a fight, but I struggle to find many serious vulnerabilities for Edgar in this matchup. I'm obliged to once again reference Stephens' power, but Edgar is both evasive and durable, which helps to mitigate his chances of losing from a single blow.
The greatest threat to Edgar is not Stephens at all, but rather apathy. That's not a criticism against Edgar. In fact, he's exhibited impressive constitution throughout his career. But at this point, a fight against Stephens might not provide the motivation to get him going.
Edgar has lost four of nine, with two defeats coming against Jose Aldo and two against Ben Henderson. It has to be difficult facing Tier 1 opponents (Henderson was at the time. Remember?), only be knocked back again and again. Add in that Edgar was previously a champion, and this, minus the gravity of the event itself, must feel somewhat mundane to him. Because realistically, he's not getting a title shot for beating Stephens. This fight is probably one of multiple steps.
Edgar's a smart guy and is likely wary of looking past Stephens, but being aware of it doesn't necessary solve the issue.
Stephens' X-Factor: Diversifying his offense
Stephens' power is an asset, sure, but power often manifests as a double-edged sword. Power punchers loading up for that one, game-changing shot is a common site in combat sports, and one that more often than not leads to disappointment.
Stringing attacks together is generally a good habit for any fighter to be in, but that is especially true for Stephens in this fight. Edgar is an exceedingly shifty target, and Stephens cannot count on tagging him with a haymaker.
Stephens will therefore have to be diverse in his offense. That means mixing in straight punches, combinations and kicks. He's been doing these things more lately than ever, but they will be more important than ever before at UFC 205.
The occasional shot, even if just to keep Edgar honest, may prove useful as well.
Prediction
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X-factors are inherently a push since they are questions more than assertions. But in every projectable theater of mixed martial arts, Edgar is superior to Stephens.
Of course, Stephens is a more powerful puncher. He has a chance in any fight because of his capacity for taking an opponent out with a single connection. But power is just a subsection of striking, so that edge is minor.
Given the way the breakdown favors Edgar, the verdict will come as no surprise. The pick here is the former lightweight champ. He's simply the better, more experienced fighter, and therefore has a fundamentally better chance of getting his hand raised at Madison Square Garden.
Stephens is durable enough to go the distance against a guy like Edgar, who is only an average finisher. So at least he'll win that moral victory.
Prediction: Edgar def. Stephens via unanimous decision
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