UFC 205 Primer: Rashad Evans vs. Tim Kennedy Head-to-Toe Breakdown
Tim Kennedy and Rashad Evans will square off in a preliminary bout at UFC 205. That's right. The historic card is so loaded that the former light heavyweight champ and the perennial middleweight contender will battle somewhere in the middle of the undercard—a testament to how deep the event truly is.
But despite the casual scheduling of the affair, the matchup represents a critical event for both combatants. Kennedy returns to the Octagon after a two-year layoff, and he is looking to rebound from a controversial loss to Yoel Romero: a defeat that snapped a four-fight win streak.
Evans is hoping a move to the middleweight division will allow him to bounce back after he dropped four of six contests at light heavyweight.
Which fighter will bounce back and return to the win column? The answer to that question depends on the answer to several others, like who wields the stronger wrestling game? Is Evans' perceived striking edge really so advantageous? How will Kennedy's layoff impact his performance?
In anticipation of UFC 205, we explore these questions to reveal the likely winner of this middleweight showdown. Read on.
Striking
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Though never known for immense power, Evans has earned a reputation as a dangerous striker on the merit of his movement and speed. Kennedy, on the other hand, is rarely cited as advanced pugilist.
Somewhat surprisingly then, FightMetric suggests Kennedy is a more active and accurate striker than Evans. The stats show he is also equally evasive when it comes to defending his opponents' attacks.
The numbers can partially be explained by factoring in ground strikes. Kennedy is both busy and effective in the top position, and that efficacy buoys his rates. Evans is comfortable on the mat as well, but he usually opts to stay vertical when he faces a mobile target.
Evans' undeniable decline factors in as well. He's been more hittable in recent outings than during his prime, which has translated to four losses in his last six bouts.
But despite Evans' regression and Kennedy's relative numerical success, the edge lies where expected—with Rashad. He is quicker and more versatile in the striking discipline than Kennedy, and he will be eager to keep the bout upright for as long as possible.
Edge: Evans
Grappling
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Before Evans developed into a sound striking threat, his offensive game was firmly grounded in wrestling. Six times in his career Evans has scored six or more takedowns in a single bout.
Kennedy has likewise piled up the takedowns during his time as a mixed martial artist. He's never tallied six in a single fight, but he has made it to five on multiple occasions.
Of the two, Evans is more efficient with his shots, succeeding on 46 percent of his takedowns, compared to Kennedy's 35 percent success rate. Defensively, both fighters stop about seven of 10 takedown attempts from their opponents.
These numbers paint a slight edge in Evans' favor, but they fail to tell a contemporary story. You know those gaudy takedown numbers I mentioned Evans ascended to? All that came a long time ago and against soft competition. The last time he reached three takedowns in the same bout was 2010. Over the course of his last six outings, he has totaled just two.
Kennedy, meanwhile, has succeeded on 12 shots in his past six fights, and he has done so against some solid foes. And while his 37-percent success rate is hardly glowing, he tends to make the most of his successes by smothering opponents on the mat.
Edge: Kennedy
Submissions
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Evans won the first two fights of his career by submission. One of those was a submission-by-strikes win. He has not submitted an opponent since his sophomore effort 12 years ago.
But despite Evans' toothless submission offense, he is a solid fighter on the mat. His ground striking is effective and his submission defense has never been assailed. Placing the focus on striking and defense is for him, more a strategic decision than an outright deficiency.
Like Evans, Kennedy's record is unblemished by a submission defeat. But whereas his opponent is limited offensively, Kennedy poses a threat. He owns eight career submission wins, all of which targeted the neck, excepting one submission win via strikes.
Though Kennedy holds the advantage here, it is unlikely this bout ends via submission. Evans should manage on defense, but if the unexpected does happen, it will almost certainly happen for Kennedy.
Edge: Kennedy
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X-Factors
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Kennedy's X-Factor: Ring rust
Kennedy last fought two years ago. Dominick Cruz might say ring rust is a myth, but being out of action for that long won't do a fighter any favors. Especially a fighter who is entering his late thirties, an age synonymous with steep athletic decline.
So will Kennedy be bothered by the long layoff? Has father time stripped him of any athleticism, strength or energy?
Such questions need to be asked, but no answer will be given until Kennedy actually returns to the Octagon. The answers his return provides will play an active role in determining the outcome of his upcoming tussle.
Evans' X-Factor: Changing weight class to change direction
Evans was unequivocally a great fighter. Emphasis on was. The former champion has posted checkered results since 2012, and he has looked exactly like an older version of his prime self in recent years.
What Evans has going for him is intelligence. He possesses a high fight IQ to pair with plenty of natural ability, and that's a combination that enables some fighters to find success late in their career. But the decline has already begun for Evans, and that's apparent.
Evans will hope that a drop to middleweight negates his now blunted tools, but whether the move works remains to be seen.
Prediction
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Kennedy is 37 and has not fought for two years. Evans is 37 and has lost both his fights in that time-frame. There is admittedly more guesswork in predicting this fight than most. Yet one fighter's trend is more concerning than the other's.
While it's reasonable to believe Kennedy may be rusty or may have entered a decline phase, we know Evans is heading down the other side of the hill. That makes Kennedy the safe bet—a notion reflected by the betting odds.
Though Evans may yet be the more effective striker, Kennedy is a crafty fighter that effectively negates his opponent's strengths. He'll employ his wrestling to keep Evans playing defense, all while tallying an edge on the scorecards.
Eventually, time will expire and that lead will manifest in a decisive, if not dominant, victory for Kennedy.
Prediction: Kennedy def. Evans, unanimous decision
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