College Basketball Teams Most Likely to Have Surprising Starts in 2016-17
With one of the best freshmen in the country and a schedule devoid of true road games until the start of conference play, Florida State tops our list of college basketball teams that could get out to surprisingly hot starts in 2016-17.
But there's a flip side to that coin, as Michigan State might have the most surprisingly cold start of any team in the country, likely to suffer at least four losses before the end of November.
To find these candidates, we scoured the 351 nonconference schedules in search of good teams facing tough schedules that could lead to a number of early losses, as well as middling teams facing schedules against which they could be one of the last undefeated teams standing in late December or early January.
To be clear, we're not suggesting each of our five "Hot" teams will be better than each of our five "Cold" teams. It's all relative to starting positions/expectations and depends heavily upon what the schedule makers were able to put together for the first three to four weeks of the season.
In a nutshell, when we look at the standings in early December, these are the teams for which many will be wondering "Where did they come from?" or "What happened to them?"
Hot: Florida State Seminoles
1 of 10
Schedule: vs. Charleston Southern (Nov. 12), vs. Iona (Nov. 15), vs. Winthrop (Nov. 18), vs. Detroit (Nov. 20), NIT Season Tip-Off (Nov. 24-25 vs. Temple, vs. Illinois/West Virginia), vs. Minnesota (Nov. 28), vs. George Washington (Dec. 4), vs. Southern Miss (Dec. 6), vs. Nicholls State (Dec. 8), vs. Florida (Dec. 11), vs. Manhattan (Dec. 17), vs. Samford (Dec. 19)
There's going to be a lot of hubbub about the ACC this year. Duke is the preseason favorite to win the national championship. North Carolina and Virginia aren't far behind the Blue Devils. Louisville and Syracuse have the chops to reach the Final Four. Clemson, North Carolina State and Virginia Tech are among the biggest breakout candidates in the country.
All in all, the conference could send at least 10 teams to the NCAA tournament.
But no one seems to be #TalkinBoutTheNoles as a team right in the middle of the pack that could do some serious damage. If Florida State can take advantage of its nonconference schedule, though, it would be one of the top teams we're focusing on at the start of conference play.
If you'll notice, the word "at" doesn't appear anywhere in the above schedule. In the first 13 games of the season, the Seminoles play nine home games, four neutral-court games and zero true road affairs. And with the possible exception of West Virginia, there's not a team on that schedule which will open the season ranked in the AP Top 25.
In other words, a 13-0 start isn't completely out of the question. At any rate, Florida State ought to carry at least 11 wins into conference play—where it quickly makes up for a weak nonconference slate with games at Virginia, vs. Duke and at North Carolina within the first 18 days.
With the return of Dwayne Bacon and the addition of Jonathan Isaac, Florida State was already going to be an intriguing team. It's hard to say who the fourth- and fifth-best players on the roster will be, but Xavier Rathan-Mayes and the aforementioned duo should be enough for this team to go dancing for the first time since 2012.
Cold: Michigan State Spartans
2 of 10
Schedule: vs. Arizona (Nov. 11 in Hawaii), vs. Kentucky (Nov. 15 in NYC), vs. Mississippi Valley State (Nov. 18), vs. Florida Gulf Coast (Nov. 20), Battle 4 Atlantis (Nov. 23-25 vs. St. John's, vs. Baylor/VCU, vs. Louisville/Wichita State/LSU/Old Dominion), at Duke (Nov. 29)
Things settle down nicely in December with consecutive home games against Oral Roberts, Youngstown State, Tennessee Tech, Northeastern and Oakland before Big Ten play begins. However, even notoriously aggressive scheduling Long Beach State has to be looking at Michigan State's November slate and thinking "Good luck with that one."
Of the eight games the Spartans play in the calendar's 11th month, only the home game against Mississippi Valley State is anything close to a guaranteed win.
Considering they are relying heavily on incoming freshmen for one of the only times in head coach Tom Izzo's career, season-opening neutral-court games against Arizona and Kentucky are both likely to result in losses—as is the road game against Duke in the ACC-B1G Challenge.
That home game against Florida Gulf Coast is no walk in the park, either, as the Eagles return five of last year's six leading scorers while adding former UCF transfer Brandon Goodwin and former Pittsburgh transfer Joshua Ko. They may not be Dunk City anymore, but that could be Upset City for the young Spartans.
That's already three losses with a fourth challenge, and we haven't even addressed the Battle 4 Atlantis, where Michigan State opens with a rapidly rebuilding St. John's before drawing a potential second-round loss in either Baylor or VCU. Even if they manage to win the first two games, they'll likely have Louisville waiting for them in the championship game.
In Izzo's 21-year career, Michigan State has yet to suffer more than two November losses in a given season. It's unlikely that streak reaches 22 years, especially with senior big man Gavin Schilling recently ruled out with no timetable for a return following a knee injury that required surgery.
Hot: George Mason Patriots
3 of 10
Schedule: vs. Towson (Nov. 12), vs. Lebanon Valley (Nov. 15), vs. Mount St. Mary's (Nov. 18), Gulf Coast Showcase (Nov. 21-23 vs. Houston, vs. Kent State/South Dakota, vs. Vermont/Hofstra/Wofford/Bradley), vs. James Madison (Nov. 26), at Northern Iowa (Nov. 30), vs. Mercer (Dec. 3), at Penn State (Dec. 7), at Penn (Dec. 10), vs. Longwood (Dec. 12), vs. Prairie View A&M (Dec. 22)
It has been a rough few years in Fairfax, Virginia. George Mason had won at least 16 games in 15 consecutive seasons from 1998-2013, but it hasn't even hit 12 wins since then.
However, there were changes made and signs of life to be found. Former Bucknell coach Dave Paulsen took over for Paul Hewitt last summer and led the Patriots to early wins over Ole Miss and Oklahoma State. They also swept Richmond and shocked both VCU and Davidson late in the season.
They lost a couple of seniors from that roster—most notably big man Shevon Thompson—but they also get back three guys who averaged a combined 28 points per game as freshmen and add redshirt freshman Daniel Relvao, who may well be a frontcourt starter from Day 1. George Mason is clearly trending in the right direction; it's just a question of how long it will take.
In Paulsen's first season with Bucknell, the Bison went 7-23. Two years later, they went 25-9. Having Mike Muscala on the roster helped, but the man knows a thing or two about turning around a sinking ship. The hope is that he'll begin to revive George Mason this year.
This year's schedule should help.
Towson is a tough season opener, but the Patriots could win their first three home games before getting the chance to make a little bit of noise in the Gulf Coast Showcase. Getting to 5-0 with wins over Houston and Kent State would be massive. However, at this point, just getting into A-10 play with a winning record would qualify as a surprisingly hot start for George Mason.
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Cold: Xavier Musketeers
4 of 10
Schedule: vs. Lehigh (Nov. 11), vs. Buffalo (Nov. 14), Tire Pros Invitational (Nov. 17-20 vs. Missouri, vs. Clemson/Davidson, vs. Oklahoma/Northern Iowa/Arizona State/Tulane), vs. Northern Iowa (Nov. 26), vs. North Dakota State (Nov. 29), at Baylor (Dec. 3), at Colorado (Dec. 7), vs. Utah (Dec. 10)
There's going to be a lot of disagreement on whether Xavier is good enough to be a No. 1 seed in the 2017 NCAA tournament, but there's no debate that the Musketeers scheduled like a team with March in mind.
Lehigh brings back all four of last year's leading scorers, including Tim Kempton, who is aiming for a third straight Patriot League Player of the Year award. It's not an easy home opener for a team replacing at least three players from last year's primary seven-man rotation—possibly four, depending on how the whole Myles Davis situation shakes out.
Trevon Bluiett, Edmond Sumner and company follow up that game with another tough one at home against a Buffalo team that has won 62 games over the past three seasons.
The Musketeers shouldn't have any trouble with Missouri in the Tire Pros Invitational opener, but that's their only gimme in the first month. Whether they get Clemson or Davidson in the second round, it'll be a battle against what should be one of the highest scoring players in the country. Xavier will be heavily favored to win that tournament, but it won't be easy.
The same goes for subsequent home games against Northern Iowa and North Dakota State, the latter of which is a team that should battle Monmouth for the title of best minor-conference team in the country this season. Then it's no rest for the weary with three games against major-conference foes—two of them on the road.
The Musketeers should be one of the 10 or 15 best teams this season, but it's not crazy to think Xavier could be saddled with at least four losses after 30 days. There are just too many coin-flip games for them to get to 12-0 for a second straight year.
Hot: Mississippi State Bulldogs
5 of 10
Schedule: vs. Norfolk State (Nov. 11), Charleston Classic (Nov. 17-20 vs. Central Florida, vs. Boise State/Charleston, vs. Villanova/Wake Forest/Western Michigan/UTEP), vs. Lehigh (Nov. 25), vs. Northwestern State (Nov. 28), vs. Oregon State (Dec. 1), vs. Georgia State (Dec. 4), vs. East Tennessee State (Dec. 14), vs. Southern Miss (Dec. 19), vs. Morehead State (Dec. 22) vs. UMKC (Dec. 29)
Mississippi State seems like the ultimate wild card team heading into the 2016-17 season.
After four consecutive sub-.500 seasons, the bar has been set pretty low for the Bulldogs. Moreover, they lost six of their eight leading scorers from last season, leaving guards Quinndary Weatherspoon and I.J. Ready as the only surefire returning impact players on the roster.
However, Ben Howland reloaded in a huge way with five of the top 80 freshmen in the country, according to Scout, giving Mississippi State a combination of youth and talent that could go in any direction.
Outside of the Charleston Classic, the schedule is exceedingly beatable. Like Florida State, Mississippi State doesn't play a true road game until conference play. Home games against Lehigh and Oregon State will be challenges, but the Bulldogs ought to be favored in both.
If the Bulldogs also open up their neutral-site tournament with wins over Central Florida and Boise State before falling to Villanova in the title game (reasonable assumptions), there's a chance they enter SEC play with an 11-1 record with the only loss coming against one of the top contenders for the national championship.
Venturing a little further into the calendar, the Bulldogs only play one game each against Kentucky, Florida and Texas A&M, and all three will be played at home. We'll see if they can actually take advantage of the situation they've been given, but it's the type of schedule against which an average major-conference team could win at least 20 games. That would be a nice change of pace from averaging 12.8 wins over the last four years.
Cold: California Golden Bears
6 of 10
Schedule: vs. South Dakota State (Nov. 11), vs. UC Irvine (Nov. 16), vs. San Diego State (Nov. 21 in San Diego), vs. Wyoming (Nov. 25), vs. Southeastern Louisiana (Nov. 27), vs. Louisiana Tech (Nov. 30), vs. Alcorn State (Dec. 3), vs. Princeton (Dec. 6 in Hawaii), vs. Seton Hall (Dec. 7 in Hawaii), vs. UC Davis (Dec. 10), vs. Cal Poly (Dec. 17), vs. Virginia (Dec. 21)
If you're just looking for opponents who will appear in the preseason AP Top 25, this schedule doesn't stand out as a particularly daunting one. The home game against Virginia at the end of nonconference play is the only game against a ranked opponent California figures to face.
However, this schedule is loaded with teams who will challenge the Golden Bears, beginning with the season opener against South Dakota State.
Cal has arguably the best sophomore big man in the nation in Ivan Rabb, but the Jackrabbits also have one heck of a sophomore stud in Mike Daum. They were a No. 12 seed in last year's NCAA tournament and nearly upset Maryland in the first round. They have won at least 24 games in four of the past five seasons. Overlook them at your own risk.
Neutral-court games against San Diego State, Princeton and Seton Hall are each potential losses for California, as well. The Aztecs and the Tigers will be two of the top minor-conference teams in the country, and the Pirates could be a top-four team in the Big East despite losing Isaiah Whitehead.
If things really go off the rails for Cal, even that home game against UC Davis could be an adventure. The Aggies were nothing special last season, but they bring back most of their top scorers while getting J.T. Adenrele back from an injury that cost him the entire 2015-16 season.
Cal should be a second-tier team in the Pac-12 this year, but it has quite a few landmines to navigate before thinking about conference standings.
Hot: TCU Horned Frogs
7 of 10
Schedule: vs. St. Thomas (Nov. 11), vs. Alabama State (Nov. 14), vs. Jacksonville State (Nov. 18), vs. Illinois State (Nov. 21), Global Sports Classic (Nov. 25-26 at UNLV, vs. Washington/Western Kentucky), vs. Washington (Nov. 30), vs. Arkansas State (Dec. 3), at SMU (Dec. 7), vs. Wofford (Dec. 10), vs. Texas Southern (Dec. 18), vs. Bradley (Dec. 21)
Two seasons ago, TCU had the most surprising start in the country, jumping out to a 13-0 record and even spending a week in the AP Top 25 for the first time since 1999. The Horned Frogs ended up losing 15 of their final 20 games and didn't even sniff the NCAA tournament, but they capitalized on a weak schedule to make some national waves.
Could they do it again this year?
Unless you're hoarding stock in Washington or Illinois State, the only remotely scary spot on their nonconference schedule is the road game against SMU—and as we'll get to shortly, the Mustangs lost their head coach, their do-it-all point guard and their two best big men.
TCU also lost its head coach, but most everyone would agree that the move to Jamie Dixon is an upgrade. And other than Chauncey Collins, the Horned Frogs get the vast majority of last year's roster back while adding in Kenrich Williams (returning from injury), Alex Robinson (Texas A&M transfer) and Jaylen Fisher (4-star freshman).
This team is a breakout candidate facing a nonconference schedule that doesn't figure to supply much resistance to that quest. Maybe the Horned Frogs lose one of those first 12 games, but with a stronger team in a weaker-than-usual Big 12, that 11-1 start might be enough to propel them into the NCAA tournament for the first time in 19 years.
Cold: Saint Mary's Gaels
8 of 10
Schedule: vs. Nevada (Nov. 11), vs. Prairie View A&M (Nov. 16), at Dayton (Nov. 19), vs. San Jose State (Nov. 22), vs. UAB (Nov. 27 in Las Vegas), at Stanford (Nov. 30), vs. Texas-Arlington (Dec. 8)
Save for one freshman who transferred after making almost no impact, the Gaels return everyone from a team that won 29 games last season. They beat Gonzaga twice before becoming one of the biggest snubs on Selection Sunday, and it seems like everyone is all-in on them vying for the WCC title yet again. CBS' Matt Norlander actually has Saint Mary's at No. 14, ahead of Gonzaga at No. 15.
But Emmett Naar and company have a much tougher nonconference schedule to deal with than they have had in years past.
They open at home against a Nevada team that quietly has one heck of a rotation anchored by Cameron Oliver and incoming transfers Marcus Marshall, Jordan Caroline and Leland King. The Wolf Pack also added four former major-conference players this summer in Iowa State's Hallice Cooke, Purdue's Kendall Stephens and North Carolina State's Caleb and Cody Martin. They won't be eligible for games this year, but they'll be practicing and making Nevada a tough team to beat.
After that, it's a brutal road game against Dayton sandwiched in between easy wins over PVA&M and SJSU. If Bradley transfer Josh Cunningham is able to hit the ground running in Dayton's frontcourt, the Flyers will likely win this Saturday afternoon game to jump into the AP Top 25 the following Monday. Led by starting seniors Charles Cooke, Scoochie Smith, Kendall Pollard and Kyle Davis, Dayton is a veteran team that won't be afraid of the sheer amount of returning talent on the Saint Mary's roster.
The Gaels finish out the first month of the season with a trio of tough battles. UAB lost its head coach to Stanford, but both of those teams return more than enough talent to give Saint Mary's fits away from home. And Texas-Arlington could be this year's Arkansas-Little Rock if Kevin Hervey is fully healthy.
We don't expect Saint Mary's to lose more than two of those games, but two would still be a rough start for a team that needs to show more in nonconference play to make this year's Big Dance.
Hot: Ohio Bobcats
9 of 10
Schedule: vs. Southern (Nov. 12), vs. Sam Houston State (Nov. 14), at Georgia Tech (Nov. 18), vs. Tennessee Tech (Nov. 25), at Marshall (Nov. 30), vs. Bryant (Dec. 3), at Iona (Dec. 10), vs. Milwaukee (Dec. 14), vs. Cleveland State (Dec. 17), at Western Kentucky (Dec. 21), vs. Urbana (Dec. 30)
It'll take less than a month for the list of undefeated teams to be whittled down to around 10. And every year, there's at least one team on the list that came out of nowhere. Last year, UNC-Wilmington and Arkansas-Little Rock both fit the description before reaching the NCAA tournament.
This year, Ohio is looking like the top candidate for that job.
For starters, the Bobcats are loaded with returning talent. Antonio Campbell is a double-double machine. Former Houston transfer Jaaron Simmons was one of the national leaders in assists last season. And former Michigan State transfer Kenny Kaminski is one of the better stretch 4s in the country. They won 23 games last season and should be headed for at least that many this year.
Now consider the schedule.
Georgia Tech is the only major-conference opponent on the list, and as Jon Rothstein of FanRag Sports not-so-kindly put it on Twitter last week, the Yellow Jackets have "the worst power-five roster" he's ever seen. Even on the road, that's a winnable game for the Bobcats, who won't play a single nonconference game against a team in the top 100 in the rankings CBS' Matt Norlander published Wednesday morning.
Ohio will eventually run into some losses in MAC play—you have to go back to Kent State in 2001-02 to find the last time a team escaped that gauntlet with fewer than two losses—but don't be surprised if the Bobcats are one of the last teams standing with a zero in the loss column.
Cold: SMU Mustangs
10 of 10
Schedule: vs. Gardner-Webb (Nov. 11), vs. Eastern Michigan (Nov. 13), 2K Classic (Nov. 17-18 vs. Pitt, vs. Michigan/Marquette), vs. UC Santa Barbara (Nov. 22), at USC (Nov. 25), at Boise State (Nov. 30)
SMU was the last undefeated team standing during the 2015-16 season, but we would be shocked if the Mustangs make it out of November without suffering at least one loss this year.
The home games against Gardner-Webb, Eastern Michigan and UC Santa Barbara are nothing to worry about, but after losing Nic Moore, Jordan Tolbert and Markus Kennedy, SMU might be the worst team in that four-team 2K Classic. The Mustangs might not go 0-2 in NYC, but it's a considerably more likely outcome than 2-0.
The day after Thanksgiving, they'll travel to California to face a USC team that a lot of people may regret selling their stock in. The Trojans lost a number of key players, but they still have a projected starting five of Jordan McLaughlin, Elijah Stewart, Shaqquan Aaron, Bennie Boatwright and Chimezie Metu with Minnesota transfer Charles Buggs and potentially impact freshmen Jonah Mathews and De'Anthony Melton available off the bench. Less depth than last year, but still more than enough talent to beat Ben Moore and company.
SMU wraps up the month with a road game against Boise State. The Broncos lost a ton of key players, but they are 28-3 at home over the past two seasons. In a battle between rebuilding teams banking on young players, ride the one that's been hot at home for a few years.
The Mustangs won't be terrible, but after three straight seasons with at least 25 wins, getting to 20 this year could be a challenge.
Stats are courtesy of KenPom.com and Sports-Reference.com. Recruiting information is courtesy of Scout.com.
Kerry Miller covers college basketball for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @kerrancejames.
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