College Football Week 8 Predictions: Picking Top 25 Games Against the Spread
Three Top 25 SEC battles are the main attractions of college football's Week 8 slate, and a handful of other ranked teams hit the road for important conference clashes.
Bleacher Report is picking all 16 games involving an AP Top 25 squad against the spread. The list is separated into two sections, both ordered by kickoff time and starting with the featured group. The rest of the weekend's action is covered on the final slide.
Following an 8-9 week, the season record dropped to 56-58 (three pushes). It's a good time to get on a run.
Please remember the picks are for entertainment purposes only.
NC State vs. No. 7 Louisville
1 of 10
When: Saturday, noon ET (ABC)
The Line: Louisville (-20)
North Carolina State nearly upset Clemson in Week 7. Saturday will show if the Wolfpack have truly improved to the point of competing with the nation's best programs.
After all, this is the same team that lost to East Carolina.
Louisville will attempt to rebound from a lackluster showing against Duke, but the Lamar Jackson-led offense from September was never sustainable anyway. Though the Cardinals will record another quality ACC win, NC State will stay within three touchdowns.
The Pick: North Carolina State (+20)
No. 10 Wisconsin vs. Iowa
2 of 10
When: Saturday, noon ET (ESPN)
The Line: Wisconsin (-3)
Heading into the matchup with Ohio State, the question was whether Wisconsin's offense could keep up. After seeing that happen, can the Badgers back it up on the road?
They don't have a margin for error, though. No other Big Ten West Division contender has to play both Michigan and Ohio State, so Wisconsin will be in desperation mode to avoid a third conference loss.
Plus, Iowa has struggled at home. The Hawkeyes are 1-3 against the spread in Iowa City this season, while the Badgers are 2-0 ATS away from Madison and 5-1 ATS overall.
The Pick: Wisconsin (-3)
No. 22 North Carolina vs. Virginia
3 of 10
When: Saturday, 3 p.m. ET
The Line: North Carolina (-7.5)
Wide receiver Mack Hollins is out for the season because of a broken collarbone. His absence leaves a gaping downfield void, but it should also cause North Carolina to run the ball more often.
Virginia hasn't always had an answer on the ground—especially not against more physical running backs like Elijah Hood. Oregon's Royce Freeman and Pitt's James Conner each scored twice.
Bronco Mendenhall's team won't get blown out since the Tar Heels defense is average at best, but UNC is 3-0 ATS in true road games this season and will continue the trend.
The Pick: North Carolina (-7.5)
No. 6 Texas A&M vs. No. 1 Alabama
4 of 10
When: Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET (CBS)
The Line: Alabama (-17)
Alabama is a juggernaut rolling over everything in its path, but Texas A&M isn't going to jump out of the way.
The Aggies will have had two weeks to prepare for the Crimson Tide, who have 11 non-offensive touchdowns this season. In order to stay close, Texas A&M must keep Bama's defense and special teams off the board—and it will.
Still, that won't be enough to keep up with Alabama. The outcome will never be in doubt during the fourth quarter, but Texas A&M will edge the spread with a late touchdown.
The Pick: Texas A&M (+17)
TCU vs. No. 12 West Virginia
5 of 10
When: Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET (ABC/ESPN2)
The Line: West Virginia (-6)
West Virginia put together a masterful performance in a 31-point road victory at Texas Tech. Skyler Howard and Co. will attempt to stay undefeated and earn a key Big 12 win against TCU.
But which Horned Frogs team will show up in Morgantown? TCU took Oklahoma to the wire before Kansas—Kansas!—did the same to the Horned Frogs, who are 1-5 against the spread in 2016.
TCU is certainly capable of a bounce-back game, but West Virginia's offense will shred a defense that has surrendered the nation's 29th-highest completion percentage.
The Pick: West Virginia (-6)
No. 17 Arkansas vs. No. 21 Auburn
6 of 10
When: Saturday, 6 p.m. ET (ESPN)
The Line: Auburn (-9.5)
Auburn cannot afford another loss if it wants to compete for the SEC West Division. After two impressive outings against inferior opponents, Gus Malzahn's team faces a prove-it game.
Over the last two-plus years, Bret Bielema's Arkansas squads are 6-1 against the spread as a road underdog. In the same time frame, the Tigers are 2-4 ATS as the favorite at home. Quarterbacks change, but coaches don't.
Although Auburn will celebrate another conference victory, it'll need to hold off a late charge from the Razorbacks.
The Pick: Arkansas (+9.5)
No. 2 Ohio State vs. Penn State
7 of 10
When: Saturday, 8 p.m. ET (ABC)
The Line: Ohio State (-19)
Penn State's offense assembled its two best games of the season once the calendar flipped to October, but Ohio State's scoring attack is trending in the opposite direction.
Saturday could be the bounce-back game the Buckeyes need, since the Nittany Lions are ranked 103rd nationally against the run. Mike Weber and Curtis Samuel might both break 100 yards.
Ohio State won't leave Happy Valley without a win, but Penn State will continue its hot streak on offense and only fall by two scores.
The Pick: Penn State (+19)
No. 16 Oklahoma vs. Texas Tech
8 of 10
When: Saturday, 8 p.m. ET (Fox)
The Line: Oklahoma (-14)
Last week, Texas Tech ceded 300-plus passing and rushing yards to West Virginia. But the Red Raiders had another major problem. They mustered just 31 yards on the ground.
The lack of balance put even more pressure on the throwing arm of Patrick Mahomes II, and it's likely to happen again. Per Football Outsiders, Oklahoma has the second-best run defense on standard downs, while Tech's offense is ranked 92nd.
Mahomes will score a few touchdowns, but the Sooners—even without Samaje Perine—can ride their rushing attack to a commanding victory in the Baker Mayfield revenge game.
The Pick: Oklahoma (-14)
No. 23 Ole Miss vs. No. 25 LSU
9 of 10
When: Saturday, 9 p.m. ET (ESPN)
The Line: LSU (-6)
Leonard Fournette is expected to rejoin the LSU backfield—which now has a three-headed attack—this week, per David Ching of ESPN.com. Meanwhile, Ole Miss hasn't stopped anyone on the ground, evidenced by its No. 104 standing nationally.
There's no doubt the Rebels will focus on stopping Fournette and Co., but quarterback Danny Etling's performance is a major unknown. Though he played well against an average Southern Miss defense, Etling otherwise hasn't averaged more than seven yards per attempt.
LSU should secure another SEC triumph, but it's not going to put much distance between itself and the explosive Ole Miss offense.
The Pick: Ole Miss (+6)
Other Top 25 Games
10 of 10
BYU vs. No. 14 Boise State (-7.5)
When: Thursday, 10:15 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Boise State narrowly avoided an upset against Colorado State, and BYU presents an even larger challenge because of its experienced quarterback, Taysom Hill. Although his counterparts on defense will struggle to contain quarterback Brett Rypien, running back Jeremy McNichols and the Broncos offense, Hill will keep the Cougars within eight points.
The Pick: BYU (+7.5)
Illinois vs. No. 3 Michigan (-35)
When: Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET (Big Ten Network)
Two weeks ago, Illinois lost to Purdue. Purdue just fired its head coach. It's no wonder the spread is 35 points. Although the Illini offense ranks 99th nationally, just six teams (Michigan is one) have committed fewer turnovers. However, Illinois won't be able to run the ball against the Wolverines. Once the Illini fall behind, their inefficient passing game will be exposed in a blowout.
The Pick: Michigan (-35)
Purdue vs. No. 8 Nebraska (-24)
When: Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET (ABC/ESPN2)
Purdue's offense showed some life against both Illinois and Iowa, but the defense has allowed an average of 43.3 points in three Big Ten games. Nebraska—which is 4-1-1 against the spread this season—will pounce early and capitalize on David Blough's inaccuracy at quarterback to put together a rout.
The Pick: Nebraska (-24)
Eastern Michigan vs. No. 20 Western Michigan (-23)
When: Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET (ESPN3)
Eastern Michigan is one of the best surprises of 2016, but the defense has struggled against top opponents. The Eagles allowed a combined nine passing touchdowns and 390 rushing yards to Missouri and Toledo. However, Western Michigan has surrendered 27.3 points per game at home. The Broncos will win comfortably, but Eastern will edge the three-touchdown spread with a late score.
The Pick: Eastern Michigan (+23)
Memphis (-3) vs. No. 24 Navy
When: Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET (CBS Sports Network)
After losing Keenan Reynolds and more than a dozen starters, 2016 could've been a rebuilding year for Navy. Instead, the Midshipmen are the same as always—assuming the running game is effective. Navy is 3-0-1 against the spread this year when running for at least four yards per carry. Plus, Memphis is 0-2 ATS on the road and 2-4 ATS overall.
The Pick: Navy (+3)
Oregon State vs. No. 5 Washington (-34.5)
When: Saturday, 6:30 p.m. ET (Pac-12 Network)
As if it's not already difficult enough to beat Washington, Marcus McMaryion—the third-string quarterback—will start for Oregon State, per Gina Mizell of the Oregonian. He probably won't get much help from the defense, which surrendered 563 yards and 47 points on the road at Colorado. Conversely, the Huskies are 10-4 ATS at home since the beginning of 2015 and averaging a 39-point margin of victory in Seattle this year.
The Pick: Washington (-34.5)
No. 11 Houston (-20.5) vs. SMU
When: Saturday, 7 p.m. ET (ESPN2)
Houston will attempt to shake two poor defensive performances when they travel to SMU, whose quarterback, Ben Hicks, has thrown at least two interceptions in four games. Additionally, the Mustangs rank 109th in total defense, so they won't be stopping quarterback Greg Ward Jr. often. Houston is 6-2 ATS on the road under Tom Herman.
The Pick: Houston (-20.5)
Note: No consensus spread listed for No. 19 Utah vs. UCLA.
All odds courtesy of Odds Shark. All historical spread info via TeamRankings.com. All recruiting information via Scout. Quotes obtained firsthand unless otherwise noted. Follow Bleacher Report CFB Writer David Kenyon on Twitter @Kenyon19_BR.
