Hypothetical College Basketball Trades That Would Benefit Both Teams in 2016-17
Instead of college basketball players transferring schools, what if players could simply be traded between programs?
A few things to note about this fictitious universe where trades are perfectly legal:
- Unlike nongraduate transfers, traded players are instantly eligible to play for their new teams.
- Only players who are currently eligible and healthy were considered for trades. For example, Villanova couldn't trade Omari Spellman after he was ruled ineligible, Duke couldn't trade Harry Giles after his latest knee injury and California couldn't do anything with Marcus Lee, as he is sitting out this season following his transfer away from Kentucky.
- Trades are permanent, so freshmen with four years of eligibility remaining are inherently and drastically more valuable than equally talented seniors with less than six months remaining on their "contracts."
- Players do not have no-trade clauses. I fully appreciate that these guys chose their schools for a reason, but too bad if it helps both teams.
Many of the teams in these trades would be improving immediately to contend in 2016-17. A few would be selling high on upperclassmen in order to both speed up and enhance what looks like a rebuilding situation.
These trades have nothing to do with locker-room chemistry, academics, off-the-court issues, etc. It's all about looking to improve the on-court product in a vacuum.
As always with hypothetical trades, the big question is "who says no?" As such, let us know in the comments section which of these trades would never happen in a million years and which trade proposals you think would help better your favorite program.
North Carolina and UCLA
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North Carolina Receives: Aaron Holiday
UCLA Receives: Theo Pinson and Luke Maye
Let's get this party started with two potential Top 10 blue-blood programs turning each other into even more likely title contenders.
UCLA already had more backcourt studs than it needed last year. Prince Ali was a top-10 shooting guard and top-50 overall recruit in last year's class, but he played less than 12 minutes per game with Bryce Alford, Isaac Hamilton and Aaron Holiday blocking his path to the court.
All four of those guys are back for 2016-17—though Ali will likely miss the start of the season after tearing his meniscus in July—and they'll be joined by stud freshman point guard Lonzo Ball. As a result, UCLA could afford to get rid of a guard who averaged 10.3 points per game last season without devaluing the on-court product.
Swapping that guard for a pair of capable forwards would be a beneficial move, considering Thomas Welsh is the only frontcourt player on the current roster who has proved much of anything. And North Carolina has both the glut of big men and the need for a shooting guard the Bruins are seeking in a trading partner.
With Isaiah Hicks, Kennedy Meeks and incoming freshman Tony Bradley more than capable of holding down the 4 and 5 and Justin Jackson big enough to shift from shooting guard to small forward, the Tar Heels might be willing to part with Theo Pinson and Luke Maye to get a player other than Joel Berry II who can make a three-pointer more than 29 percent of the time. (Holiday shot 41.9 percent as a freshman at UCLA.)
Between Nate Britt, Kenny Williams, Seventh Woods and Brandon Robinson, North Carolina does have options. But like UCLA's frontcourt situation, none of them have yet shown they can handle a full-time job at the collegiate level. Dumping some frontcourt depth to get a guy like Holiday makes sense.
Dayton and St. John's
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Dayton Receives: Kassoum Yakwe
St. John's Receives: Darrell Davis, John Crosby and Sam Miller
This is one of several cases on our list where improving in 2016-17 doesn't necessarily mean increasing the odds of getting invited to the 2017 NCAA tournament. St. John's should be significantly better than it was this past season, but it's likely still a year away from vying for a tourney bid.
Making a trade that turns this year into a better stepping stone for 2017-18 would be the Red Storm's best course of action.
Just about the only area in which this team was above-average last season was shot blocking. St. John's ranked sixth in the nation in block percentage with freshmen Kassoum Yakwe and Yankuba Sima individually ranking 12th and 19th, respectively. Trading one of those two players to restock elsewhere would be a logical move, as would parting with the one who is 6'7" (Yakwe) while hanging onto the one who is 6'11" (Sima).
One team desperately needing someone to block shots is Dayton. The Flyers had a frontcourt star in the making in Steve McElvene, but the big man suddenly died in May due to complications from an undiagnosed heart condition.
Kostas Antetokounmpo is a freakishly athletic freshman who could have helped fill that void, but he was ruled academically ineligible this past weekend. And with four seniors in their projected starting lineup, they don't have time to wait around until 2018 to find out who develops into a viable frontcourt starter.
Giving up a junior and two sophomores for Yakwe is a high asking price, but Darrell Davis is the only one who figures to fit into this year's primary seven-man rotation. The Flyers would be better off getting an immediate impact player while letting St. John's try to hatch those eggs for future years.
Auburn and Iowa State
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Auburn Receives: Matt Thomas and Solomon Young
Iowa State Receives: Horace Spencer
If there's one near-annual NCAA tournament team desperately needing to add a defensive stopper and rebounder in the paint, it's Iowa State. After losing Jameel McKay, Georges Niang and Abdel Nader as graduates, the Cyclones are moving on without all three of last year's leading rebounders and shot blockers.
Adding Merrill Holden and Darrell Bowie as graduate transfers is a nice step in the right direction, but they weren't exactly elite big men in Conference USA or the MAC. Expecting them to shine in the Big 12 might be too optimistic—as is expecting either Simeon Carter or Stuart Nezlek to put up big numbers after playing a combined 49 minutes last season.
Auburn's Horace Spencer, though, might be the answer.
He's not much of an offensive weapon and is a permanent liability at the free-throw line, but Spencer was a shot-blocking and offensive-rebounding machine as a freshman.
Spencer is Auburn's only returning player taller than 6'7" who scored more than five points last season, but Bruce Pearl did snag Bethune Cookman graduate transfer LaRon Smith, who put up per-40 numbers almost identical to Spencer—11.3 points, 10.9 rebounds and 4.7 blocks vs. 11.3 points, 10.9 rebounds and 4.6 blocks.
Pearl would rather keep the sophomore than the senior, but the sophomore would fetch a much greater return, and he already has a star big man committed in 2017 (Austin Wiley). In exchange for Spencer, Iowa State would give up a 3-star freshman forward (Solomon Young) and a three-point assassin (Matt Thomas) whom Auburn needs.
The Tigers have taken a ton of three-point shots under Pearl over the past two years, but few made them with regularity last year. T.J. Lang was the only one better than 37 percent, while Thomas shot 43.2 percent for the Cyclones. And with Naz Mitrou-Long, Monte Morris and Deonte Burton still on the roster, they might be willing to let Thomas walk to improve their frontcourt game.
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Duke and Creighton
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Creighton Receives: Luke Kennard and Amile Jefferson
Duke Receives: Maurice Watson Jr.
In terms of total talent exchanged, there's no question Duke is getting the raw end of this deal. Amile Jefferson averaged a double-double in nine games last season, and Luke Kennard is likely going to make at least 100 three-pointers in a season at some point before graduating.
Mo Watson is a great point guard, but Creighton would gladly make this deal, move Marcus Foster to point guard and have more than enough weapons to compete for the Big East title.
But the Blue Devils are one piece away from having a nearly unbeatable roster. That piece is a true point guard, and they wouldn't hesitate to trade out of their excess to get one as good as Watson.
(For what it's worth, the "Duke will struggle at point guard" narrative has been completely overblown after six months of trying to find a fatal flaw in the favorite to win the title. Between combo guards Frank Jackson, Grayson Allen and Matt Jones, Mike Krzyzewski has plenty of viable ball-handlers. But since people are acting like Jackson and Allen are as physically capable of passing the ball as Derek Zoolander is of turning left, let's play along and pretend the Blue Devils desperately need an established pass-first PG.)
Even if Harry Giles were to miss the entire season after his recent arthroscopic surgery, Duke still has enough frontcourt weapons to part with Jefferson in order to fill its point guard void. Watson would join the aforementioned three combo guards in the backcourt, while Jayson Tatum and Marques Bolden start at the 4 and 5, respectively, with Chase Jeter, Sean Obi, Javin DeLaurier, Antonio Vrankovic and Justin Robinson available off the bench.
Tulsa and Xavier
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Tulsa Receives: Choice of two players from Xavier's incoming class
Xavier Receives: Pat Birt
Sorry, Tulsa, but your streak of consecutive seasons with at least 20 wins is coming to an abrupt end at three. Aside from maybe Duke or Kentucky which can always reload with more one-and-done freshmen, teams simply don't lose seven of their eight leading scorers and remain competitive.
Don't believe me? Ask Long Beach State, which went 24-8 in 2007, lost its top seven scorers to graduation and went 6-25 the following year—despite adding six transfers to combat the attrition. Or talk to American, which lost seven of the top nine scorers from a 24-8 team in 2009 before going 11-20 in 2010. Or call up St. John's, which has crashed and burned after a mass exodus twice in the past six years.
In a universe where trading is allowed in college basketball, the Golden Hurricane would be better off completely embracing a season in the tank by exchanging their one remaining key player from last season (Pat Birt) for a couple of guys who will still have eligibility in 2018.
Meanwhile, Xavier is right on the fringe of the list of teams with legitimate 2017 national championship aspirations. Or, at least the Musketeers were right there before the offseason turmoil surrounding Myles Davis.
Though Xavier didn't explicit state why it indefinitely suspended Davis on Sept. 1, most everyone assumes it's because of the two misdemeanor criminal charges filed against him by an ex-girlfriend earlier this summer. According to Shannon Russell of the Cincinnati Enquirer, Davis remains suspended indefinitely in advance of pretrial hearings that have been delayed until Oct. 27.
At this point, it's looking more and more likely that the Musketeers will be without their senior guard and would likely be willing to part with two of their three 4-star freshmen in order to get another veteran who can make it rain threes.
Saint Mary's and VCU
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Saint Mary's Receives: Doug Brooks
VCU Receives: Stefan Gonzalez
Saint Mary's is bringing back more key players from last season than just about any other team in the country. Outside of a freshman (Franklin Porter) who scored 30 points before transferring, the Gaels didn't lose a single player from 2015-16.
This means they still have one of the country's worst turnover-forcing defenses. With just 15.6 percent of defensive possessions ending in a turnover, they ranked 320th last season.
Granted, quite a few quality teams were even worse in that department. Michigan State, Utah, California, Purdue, Notre Dame and Colorado all made the 2016 NCAA tournament as single-digit seeds despite a lower turnover percentage than Saint Mary's had. But lack of steals was the most glaring issue for a team that was exceptionally efficient on offense.
VCU's Doug Brooks led the nation in steal percentage last season, but the inaccurate shooting guard had trouble even getting on the floor toward the end of his junior season. And with Melvin Johnson and Korey Billbury both graduating, the Rams desperately need someone other than Brooks to step up and take a ton of three-pointers this year.
Stefan Gonzalez would be the perfect man for the job.
The three-point specialist made an absurd 52.6 percent of his 76 attempts from beyond the arc as a freshman, but he only averaged 10.0 minutes per game—and most of those came early in the season against weak nonconference opponents.
Swapping the eighth-most used player on the roster for the country's best on-ball defender makes perfect sense for Saint Mary's. And VCU always has more players capable of becoming turnover wizards, so it would be a small price for the Rams to pay to drastically improve their perimeter offense.
Pittsburgh and Texas
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Pittsburgh Receives: Jacob Young
Texas Receives: Sheldon Jeter
Of all the hypothetical trades we were able to come up with, this would be the one most likely to actually happen. Pittsburgh and Texas are trading partners made in heaven, sharing mutually beneficial excesses and deficiencies.
The Longhorns have a ton of young talent, but they are painfully limited in experience. Shaquille Cleare is a fifth-year senior, but he has been a reserve for most of his career, never averaging so much as 14 minutes per game for a season. Mareik Isom is in a similar boat, starting just 18 games over the past three seasons for Arkansas-Little Rock. Kendal Yancy has the most experience on the roster, but he played his way out of a starting job last year and averaged just 3.0 points per game.
Other than those three guys, Texas is effectively nothing but freshmen and sophomores. Though he hasn't played all that much more than Cleare or Isom, fifth-year senior Sheldon Jeter could be the exact elder statesman the Longhorns need.
Pittsburgh still has Jamel Artis and Michael Young as frontcourt starters, so Jeter would be expendable for a playmaking guard who can help the Panthers replace graduates James Robinson and Sterling Smith.
Jacob Young—younger brother of former gunner for Houston and Oregon Joseph Young—would fill that void. And with Andrew Jones, Eric Davis Jr. and Kerwin Roach Jr. already among Texas' backcourt options, Shaka Smart ought to be willing and able to part with the incoming freshman guard.
As is, Texas is a fringe Top 25 team, and Pittsburgh is a bubbly NCAA tournament team, but this is a simple one-for-one swap that would make both teams significantly better in the upcoming season.
Davidson and Old Dominion
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Davidson Receives: Denzell Taylor
Old Dominion Receives: Dusan Kovacevic and KiShawn Pritchett
Rebounding was a major problem last year for Davidson, ranking 312th in offensive rebounding percentage and 228th on the defensive end. According to KenPom.com, the Wildcats had not ranked worse than 261st on offense or 136th on defense in the previous 14 years, putting their negative-140 rebounding margin for the season in unfamiliar territory.
Losing Jake Belford to injury just six games into the season for a second straight year didn't help their cause, but adding Denzell Taylor certainly would.
Taylor ranked fourth in the nation in offensive rebounding percentage last year and was sixth during the 2014-15 season. He barely ever shoots the ball—he has averaged one field-goal attempt for every nine minutes, 21 seconds on the court over the past two seasons—but that's no problem for Davidson, which wants Jack Gibbs shooting as often as he possibly can anyway.
Why would Old Dominion part ways with such a dominant force on the offensive glass, you ask? Well, because the Monarchs probably aren't doing much of anything this year with or without him.
Do-it-all star Trey Freeman graduated, as did second- and fifth-leading scorers Aaron Bacote and Nik Biberaj. Juniors Ambrose Mosley and Austin Colbert both transferred, leaving Taylor and point guard Jordan Baker as the only seniors on the 2016-17 roster.
Like both St. John's and Tulsa, Old Dominion would benefit from hitting the "reset" button, trading away a senior in exchange for Davidson's pair of redshirt freshmen.
TCU and Villanova
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TCU Receives: Mikal Bridges
Villanova Receives: J.D. Miller and Karviar Shepherd
We started the list with one of last year's participants in the national championship game, so it only makes sense to finish it off with the other one. Because between Daniel Ochefu graduating and 5-star freshman center Omari Spellman ruled academically ineligible for the season, Villanova could use some help in the frontcourt.
The Wildcats were already an average rebounding team and an average shot-blocking team with Ochefu commanding the paint. Darryl Reynolds was more than sufficient in both of those categories, but he wasn't quite as good as Ochefu and wasn't anywhere near the offensive weapon his predecessor was.
They do have a ton of slightly smaller options. Mikal Bridges, Eric Paschall, Josh Hart and Kris Jenkins can all pass for power forwards or even play the 5 in a bit of an unorthodox lineup, but swapping one of those guys for a pair of true big men would be great.
Meanwhile, TCU is practically drowning in frontcourt options—most of whom can't put the ball in the hoop. Chris Washburn, Karviar Shepherd and J.D. Miller each shot 40.0 percent or worse from inside the arc last season. The Horned Frogs also have Vladimir Brodziansky and Kenrich Williams, with the latter returning from an injury that cost him the entire 2015-16 season.
Though they can't shoot worth a lick, Shepherd and Miller are great rebounders and shot-blockers, which is what Villanova wants. And they would be expendable in exchange for Bridges, who made 71.6 percent of his two-point attempts last season.
Tough to say whether Jay Wright would be willing to part with his sixth man and best defender for added frontcourt depth, but it would be an intriguing offer if trading existed in college sports.
Stats are courtesy of KenPom.com and Sports-Reference.com. Recruiting information is courtesy of Scout.com.
Kerry Miller covers college basketball for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @kerrancejames.
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