Ranking the Top Player of the Year Candidates in the ACC in 2016-17
Duke is the clear favorite to win the 2017 national championship, but the ACC is so loaded, even national Player of the Year candidate Grayson Allen isn't a runaway favorite for ACC POY.
Team success is one of the most important factors in conference Player of the Year voting. Last year, 31 of the 32 conference POYs played on a team that finished in the top four in the standings. Howard's James Daniel, who averaged 2.1 more points per game than any other player in the country, was the one exception to the rule.
As such, most of our top candidates for ACC POY just so happen to come from our top five projected teams. But anyone expected to put up big numbers is a viable candidate for this list.
In addition to team projections, the following players are ranked in ascending order of how much of a negative impact it would have on the team if each one was suddenly unavailable for the 2016-17 season. Indispensable players on title contenders are the goal.
Honorable Mentions
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V.J. Beachem, Notre Dame
We had the Fighting Irish at No. 10 in our projected ACC standings last month, and it's almost impossible for a 10th-place team to produce a conference POY. But based on the way he finished last season—16.7 PPG, 54.3% 3PT in six games in the ACC and NCAA tournaments—Beachem might be in the conversation. He should put up crazy numbers in the absence of Demetrius Jackson and Zach Auguste.
Donovan Mitchell, Louisville and Ja'Quan Newton, Miami
On rosters with senior studs at point guard and shooting guard, Mitchell and Newton were both forced into sixth-man roles last season. But both should be headed for monster years as starters who can score in bunches and who are anything but slouches on the defensive end. If either one blossoms into a more reliable three-point threat, first-team all-ACC honors are absolutely on the table.
Zach LeDay, Virginia Tech
In what should be the year the Hokies get back to the NCAA tournament, someone from this roster is inevitably going to be heralded as the player who turned the program around. Why not the guy who averaged 20.1 points, 10.2 rebounds and 2.2 blocks per 40 minutes last year?
(By the way, let's have a moment of silence for South Florida, which had LeDay, John Egbunu [transferred to Florida] and Javontae Hawkins [transferred to Eastern Kentucky] on its roster for the 2013-14 season. Those three guys averaged a combined 44.0 PPG last year while the Bulls went 8-25 before also losing two of their top 3 scorers as transfers this summer. Still think this isn't an epidemic?)
Harry Giles, Jayson Tatum, Marques Bolden, Duke
We didn't enforce some arbitrary rule that each team is only allowed to have one player in our top seven, but the ACC is so ridiculously loaded this year, it's hard to imagine any team will have multiple players on the all-ACC first team at the end of the year. These three freshmen are largely the reason the Blue Devils are going to open the season ranked No. 1 in the nation, but we've got Grayson Allen as Duke's top POY candidate.
7. Jonathan Isaac, Florida State
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2015-16 Stats: N/A (Incoming freshman)
Florida State has several quality options for ACC POY. Dwayne Bacon averaged nearly 16 points per game as a freshman and might be an even bigger star in his second season. Xavier Rathan-Mayes has been the leader of the Seminoles backcourt for the past two years and should only become more important after losing Malik Beasley and Devon Bookert as teammates.
However, the reason we're buying stock in FSU as a NCAA tournament team for the first time since 2012 is stud freshman Jonathan Isaac.
The Seminoles have been in a decade-long, constant state of being just one player away from greatness. They have lost at least 10 games in each of the last 11 seasons, but have also finished above .500 in each of those years. Save for the No. 3 seed they received in 2012, they have lived on the tournament bubble, waiting to finally break out.
Isaac could be that catalyst for change.
Whether he's 6'9", 6'10" or 6'11" depends on the recruiting/NBA draft site you ask, but they can all agree that Isaac is a large small forward. A late growth spurt is to thank for his guard-like tendencies in a big man's body.
Given the roster construction, Isaac will be tasked with playing either the 4 or 5 for the Seminoles, but that won't stop him from spending time on the perimeter, a la Kyle Wiltjer or Alec Peters—especially since they need that distance shooting after watching both Bacon and Rathan-Mayes shoot worse than 29 percent from three-point range last season.
If nothing else, Isaac gives us a reason to be optimistically #TalkinBoutTheNoles in the preseason. That's already a change of pace.
6. Tyler Lydon, Syracuse
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2015-16 Stats: 10.1 PPG, 6.3 RPG, 1.8 BPG, 1.1 SPG, 1.1 APG, 40.5% 3PT
Harnessing the power of his mustache ("Uncle Rico"), freshman forward Tyler Lydon helped propel Syracuse to its sixth Final Four.
He didn't get nearly the national attention teammates Malachi Richardson and Michael Gbinije received, but Lydon was the MVP of the Orange in many ways.
According to KenPom.com, he led the team in O-rating by a significant margin. He also had the best effective field-goal percentage, true shooting percentage and block percentage. And according to Sports-Reference.com, Lydon led the Orange in win shares per 40 minutes and box plus/minus.
Suffice it to say, they wouldn't have been nearly as good without him, and he's going to be even more important this year.
Graduate-transfers Andrew White III and John Gillon will immediately inherit heavy workloads, but Lydon should be the versatile star of the show. Gbinije, Richardson and Trevor Cooney combined to average 36.0 field-goal attempts per game last season, and the 40.5 percent three-point shooting stretch 4 figures to pick up a good chunk of that slack for a team that more people will be paying attention to during the regular season.
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5. Austin Nichols, Virginia
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2015-16 Stats: N/A (Incoming transfer)
At long last, we have an incoming transfer listed as a top-conference POY candidate. Marcus Foster (Kansas State to Creighton) was an honorable mention for the Big East, but he was the only suggestion of a transfer in the six power conferences.
Until now.
There is not a more important transfer in the country than Virginia's Austin Nichols. There are a few other good candidates—Gonzaga has several of them—but this isn't even up for debate. With Anthony Gill and Mike Tobey both graduating, the Cavaliers desperately need a new impact frontcourt player.
Isaiah Wilkins is a great option, or at least a better-than-has-been-advertised one. But he can't do it alone, so the Wahoos need Nichols for his elite shot blocking and his ability to be a go-to scorer in the post.
Two years ago with Memphis—playing alongside a darn fine big man in Shaq Goodwin—Nichols averaged 18.0 points and 4.7 blocks per 40 minutes. What had been a guard-oriented team for the better part of the past decade suddenly became hopelessly dependent on a forward.
It wasn't enough for the Tigers to make the NCAA tournament, but they didn't have anyone like London Perrantes to help steer the ship. Nichols was just about a one-man show, and he led Memphis to 18 wins that year. With a significantly better supporting cast, he could be the anchor of a championship team.
4. Jaron Blossomgame, Clemson
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2015-16 Stats: 18.7 PPG, 6.7 RPG, 1.5 APG, 1.3 BPG, 44.1% 3PT
It wasn't until Jaron Blossomgame temporarily declared for the 2016 NBA draft that most people finally seemed to appreciate how valuable he was as a junior. Even though Clemson made some major national waves by reeling off five consecutive upsets early in ACC play, few praised Blossomgame for his major contributions on both ends of the floor during that stretch.
Heck, even the media tasked with covering the ACC barely saw fit to name Blossomgame an all-conference first-teamer. He ranked fifth in total votes and was not considered one of the ACC's five best players by 19 of the 51 voters, despite emerging as the star of a team playing its best basketball in five years.
Of course, conference standings played a big part in that, as the Tigers tied for seventh place in the ACC and did not get invited to the NCAA tournament. We would be impressed that 63 percent of the voters awarded a first-team spot to a player from that team if not for the fact that 94 percent of the voters named Cat Barber a first-team guy while playing for 5-13 North Carolina State.
No disrespect to Barber. Both guys deserved the honor. But it's shocking how many voters jumped right over Blossomgame to go grab someone from the team that finished in 13th place.
Wins and losses shouldn't be an issue for Blossomgame's candidacy this year, though, as Clemson may well enter the season ranked in the AP Top 25. Granted, even if the Tigers are regarded as the country's 25th-best team, that's still probably only good enough for seventh-best in the ACC this year. But provided they make more of an impact on this year's national radar, so will Blossomgame.
3. Dennis Smith Jr., North Carolina State
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2015-16 Stats: N/A (Incoming freshman)
Once upon a time, Dennis Smith Jr. was the top point guard in the 2016 class. A torn ACL in August 2015 resulted in slightly tempered expectations, but Scout.com still regards Smith as the fourth-best point guard and the ninth-best overall player (after removing Thon Maker) in this year's freshman crop.
Injury or not, the kid is a stud. We throw around outlandish comparisons to NBA greats all the time, but it won't be long before Smith is drawing frequent comps to Russell Westbrook. A 6'2" point guard who is more than capable of playing above the rim, Smith might be the country's most explosive player.
The YouTube mixtapes from before his injury look like they belong on a Harlem Globetrotters' highlight reel. His ball-handling skills, ability to change direction on a dime and breakaway speed put him on a level where even the best freshmen usually can't play.
But while he might be the ACC's first draft pick in 2017, projected team success may hold him back in the conference POY vote.
NC State will be better than last year, but improving on a 16-17 overall (5-13 in ACC) record isn't exactly a high hurdle. The Wolfpack should finish in the top half of the ACC standings, but barely. And considering the number of star players on title contenders in this conference, sixth or seventh place might not be enough.
Having said that, there's not a player in this conference we're more excited to watch this year.
2. Joel Berry II, North Carolina
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2015-16 Stats: 12.8 PPG, 3.8 APG, 3.3 RPG, 1.5 SPG, 38.2% 3PT
Obscured by the unstoppable force that was Brice Johnson, Joel Berry II was North Carolina's quiet leader as a sophomore.
When it mattered most, he brought the noise. In nine games between the ACC and NCAA tournaments, Berry averaged 14.8 points and 4.2 assists per game and 3.5 assists per turnover while shooting 43.2 percent from three-point range. His average O-rating in postseason play was a 148.3.
For sake of comparison on that O-rating mark, Buddy Hield only topped 148 once in his final 28 games and had an average postseason O-rating of 113.1. So, yeah, Berry was a lot more valuable than most people seemed to realize.
But there's no more Johnson or Marcus Paige to steal the spotlight.
This is Berry's team now.
Maybe Justin Jackson is a better NBA prospect. Perhaps Isaiah Hicks gets more attention for how well (or poorly) he fills Johnson's role. But there's no clearer leader on this roster than Berry.
It'll be his job to get guys like Theo Pinson and Kennedy Meeks more involved in the offense this year, and he'll be the first and best line of defense at the other end of the court. Berry's numbers likely won't be as gaudy as what the other ACC POY candidates will put up, but he should emerge as the undisputed most valuable player of a national championship contender.
1. Grayson Allen, Duke
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2015-16 Stats: 21.6 PPG, 4.6 RPG, 3.5 APG, 1.3 SPG, 41.7% 3PT
As is the case for Kentucky in the SEC, the top candidate for ACC Player of the Year is effectively "Pick Your Favorite Dukie."
You might prefer Harry Giles or Jayson Tatum in this spot, since they're both projected lottery picks who don't have a history of tripping controversies. However, we're going with the guy who has already proved he can dominate at the collegiate level.
Grayson Allen is one of just six players in the past four years to average at least 21 points, 4.5 rebounds and 3.5 assists per game, and he's the only one who returned for another season after putting up those ridiculous averages.
The sheer amount of talent on this roster will keep a lot of Blue Devils from getting the number of touches they deserve, but that shouldn't be an issue for Allen. He and Frank Jackson will likely share the ball-handling duties, which means we'll still see Allen recklessly driving the lane plenty of times per game.
If and when he becomes a little more adept at dumping the ball off to one of his dominant big men, how can anyone possibly expect to slow down this offense?
So many people are nitpicking at the Blue Devils because of their lack of a true point guard, but have we already forgotten the job Jon Scheyer did in leading Duke to the 2010 national championship?
Like Scheyer, Allen is more than just some spot-up shooting guard. He's a playmaker. Get him the ball as often as possible and enjoy the ride.
Kerry Miller covers college basketball for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @kerrancejames.
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