Predicting the 1st Loss of the 2016-17 Season for Top College Basketball Teams
Duke and Kansas might be the two best men's college basketball teams in the country this year, but one of those two title contenders is guaranteed to lose a game barely 100 hours into the 2016-17 season.
The following 20 teams are the ones we're projecting to open the year ranked in the Top 20, but their rankings in this slideshow have nothing to do with where they stand in the national hierarchy. Rather, they have been listed in chronological order of projected first loss, beginning with a pair of great games in the Armed Forces Classic and concluding with a pair of West Coast teams that shouldn't lose a game until mid-January.
Between events like the Champions Classic, the ACC/Big Ten Challenge and the litany of neutral-site tournaments played around Thanksgiving, there won't be many teams that make it a full month before suffering a loss. Only eight teams (Arkansas-Little Rock, Iowa State, Michigan State, Oklahoma, Purdue, SMU, South Carolina and Xavier) lasted that long last year, and only three of those teams (Oklahoma, SMU and South Carolina) got to January without a blemish.
If you're curious who those few survivors might be this year, read on to find out the best bets.
19. (tie) Indiana Hoosiers
1 of 20
First Loss: Nov. 11 vs. Kansas (in Hawaii)
Though we hold our breath for months waiting for its arrival, the opening day of the college basketball season is usually devoid of intriguing matchups. Last year, there wasn't a single game between teams ranked in the preseason KenPom.com top 65, and there were 40 games pitting a Division I school against a non-D-I program.
This year, though, hang onto your hats, because the Armed Forces Classic might be the best regular-season event outside of the Champions Classic. With Indiana facing Kansas and Arizona going up against Michigan State, a minimum of two Top 20 teams will suffer a loss within the first 12 hours of the 2016-17 season.
That's great news for college basketball fans, but it's looking like it will be bad news for the Big Ten.
Kansas arguably has the best backcourt in the entire country. Led by senior point guard Frank Mason III, junior combo guard Devonte' Graham and stud freshman Josh Jackson, the Jayhawks are going to win a lot of games this year with their guard and small forward play.
And that's a brutal opening draw for an Indiana team entering the start of practices with a big question mark at point guard.
The Hoosiers do have some talented options. If fully recovered from the knee injury that cut short his sophomore year, James Blackmon Jr. will be a lethal shooting guard to pair with Robert Johnson. And OG Anunoby is one of the few small forwards who might be able to keep Jackson in check this year.
However, this feels like a team that will be much more dangerous in March than it will be in November. If the Hoosiers make it through opening night without a blemish, though, the home game against North Carolina as part of the ACC/Big Ten Challenge is the only other game in the first five weeks that might result in a loss.
19. (tie) Michigan State Spartans
2 of 20
First Loss: Nov. 11 vs. Arizona (in Hawaii)
Like Indiana, Michigan State figures to be more dangerous later in the year.
Head coach Tom Izzo has a sensational incoming recruiting class, but he desperately needed one after losing each of last year's top three scorers and five of the top six. Returning players such as Gavin Schilling, Matt McQuaid and Alvin Ellis III should make significant impacts, but Eron Harris is the only veteran Spartan with a proven ability to lead a team in scoring.
The freshman quartet of Miles Bridges, Joshua Langford, Nick Ward and Cassius Winston is expected to do big things, but let's not pretend these are the can't-miss superstars that Duke and Kentucky have. Bridges is the only Spartan that DraftExpress is projecting to be taken in 2017, and he's just barely a first-rounder. It may take some time for the newcomers to really hit their stride.
Granted, Arizona is also banking heavily on freshmen. 247Sports has Michigan State as the third-best class this year, but Arizona is No. 6—and that doesn't even include redshirt freshman Ray Smith, who was a 5-star guy in last year's class.
However, the Wildcats have more impact returning players in the form of Allonzo Trier, Kadeem Allen and Dusan Ristic. And with incoming freshman Lauri Markkanen taking the world by storm this summer, Arizona should be the team more prepared to make an immediate impact.
But even if we're wrong about the outcome on opening night, don't go betting on the Spartans making it to December with an undefeated record.
They face Kentucky in the Champions Classic four days after this game, will likely need to go through both Baylor and Louisville 10 days later in the Battle 4 Atlantis and have a road game against Duke four days after getting back from the Bahamas. It's a safe assumption that Michigan State will enter Selection Sunday with one of the best strength of schedules in the country.
18. Villanova Wildcats
3 of 20
First Loss: Nov. 14 at Purdue
A new event this past season, the Gavitt Games will be an exciting, early-season tradition between the Big Ten and Big East for at least the next seven years. Maryland at Georgetown and Wisconsin at Creighton will make for an outstanding doubleheader on Nov. 15, but the best showdown comes on the first night of the event when Villanova travels to Purdue.
Thanks to recent news about the ineligibility of Villanova's 5-star freshman big man, it's a game that should favor the home team.
Losing Omari Spellman for the year is no reason to sell all of the Villanova stock you've been holding throughout the offseason. Maybe the Wildcats slip from No. 3 to No. 6 in the preseason polls because of it, but they still have Darryl Reynolds as a perfectly viable option at center and will still be expected to win the Big East for a fourth straight year.
But Purdue is just about the last team you want to face when trying to figure out your frontcourt rotation. Between Caleb Swanigan, Isaac Haas and Vince Edwards, the Boilermakers have an outstanding collection of big men.
Against most teams, some combination of Reynolds, Josh Hart, Kris Jenkins, Mikal Bridges, Eric Paschall, Tim Delaney and freshman Dylan Painter will be more than enough for Villanova to get the job done. This isn't one of those teams. Reynolds is a fairly big guy at 6'8" and 225 pounds, but he's giving up six inches and about 70 pounds against Haas. Likewise, Hart will look like a string bean against Swanigan.
Of course, Purdue should have been able to use its size advantage to take Arkansas-Little Rock to the cleaners in the 2016 NCAA tournament, but that didn't work out so well. If Villanova is able to sneak out of West Lafayette, Indiana, with a win, it should be a long time before it's challenged again. A neutral-court game against Notre Dame is as tough as it gets until conference play begins, and that's not saying much.
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17. Kansas Jayhawks
4 of 20
First Loss: Nov. 15 vs. Duke (in Madison Square Garden)
There's almost no chance it lives up to last year's triple-overtime epic between Kansas and Oklahoma, but there's a good chance this ends up being battle between the two highest-ranked teams in the AP Top 25.
And that means one of the two best teams in the country will suffer a loss no later than the fifth day of the regular season.
This is already the second time we've encountered Kansas in this list, as the Jayhawks also open the year with a fantastic game against Indiana. But while their backcourt should be too good for the Hoosiers to handle, their frontcourt doesn't even remotely stack up to what Duke is bringing to the table.
Carlton Bragg Jr. will put up good numbers as Kansas' primary power forward, and Landen Lucas has the potential to average a double-double at center. It's a formidable frontcourt duo in the Big 12 and good enough to make the Jayhawks one of the top candidates to win the national championship.
But it doesn't even hold a candle to Duke's litany of options in Harry Giles, Marques Bolden, Amile Jefferson, Javin DeLaurier and Chase Jeter.
Moreover, like Indiana's Anunoby, Duke has a small forward capable of going toe-to-toe with Kansas' Jackson. In fact, Jayson Tatum vs. Jackson is probably the best battle between freshmen since Andrew Wiggins and Jabari Parker squared off in the 2013 Champions Classic. Like that showdown from three years ago, Kansas has the No. 1 recruit in the country while Duke has the small forward ranked No. 4.
Though Parker had the slightly better performance, Wiggins' Jayhawks won the game because Duke could neither slow down Perry Ellis nor buy a rebound. This time around, the shoe will be on the other foot, as relative lack of interior strength will doom Kansas to one of its only losses of the entire season.
16. Rhode Island Rams
5 of 20
First Loss: Nov. 20 vs. Duke (in Uncasville, Connecticut)
Based on the past few months of comments on Top 20 and Top 25 sliders, there's a good chance some of you will vehemently disagree with Rhode Island showing up on this list. But let this serve as yet another warning that the Rams ought to be in the running with Gonzaga and Saint Mary's for the title of "best mid-major team in 2016-17."
Historically speaking, that's a tough pill to swallow. Rhode Island hasn't earned a share of an Atlantic 10 regular-season championship since 1981—back when it was an eight-team league known as the Eastern Athletic Association. Moreover, in the 35 years since that championship, the Rams have won only one conference tournament (1999). And that was the last time they made the NCAA tournament.
But with E.C. Matthews returning from injury to join a rotation that improved in his absence, Rhode Island's past is less interesting than its immediate future.
That doesn't mean the Rams will get to Thanksgiving without a loss, though.
After a trio of easy home wins over Dartmouth, Marist and Brown, they'll travel about 40 miles to participate in the Hall of Fame Tip-Off, drawing Cincinnati in the opener for the likely right to face Duke in the championship game.
We like their chances against the Bearcats. In Octavius Ellis, Farad Cobb, Shaq Thomas and Coreontae DeBerry, Cincinnati lost four of last year's eight leading scorers and may still be figuring things out 10 days into the season. The significantly more veteran and intact Rams should be a slight favorite.
Unless Penn State shocks the world and upsets Duke in the other half of the bracket, though, the following day will be when Rhode Island's perfect season comes to an end.
Even if the Rams get blown out in that one, though, keep an eye on them. Games against Belmont, Valparaiso, Providence and Houston in the following three weeks should give a good indication of where they stack up against the rest of the country.
15. Oregon Ducks
6 of 20
First Loss: Nov. 22 vs. Wisconsin (in Hawaii)
Last year, the big preseason injury was North Carolina's Marcus Paige. His hand injury didn't stop the Tar Heels from opening the year ranked No. 1 in the AP Top 25, but it did make them more vulnerable to an upset until his return. Sure enough, they lost to Northern Iowa on the second weekend of the season.
This year, the major health concern is Oregon's Dillon Brooks, who underwent foot surgery in late August and likely won't be back in time for the start of the 2016-17 season.
The Ducks will still be a Top 10 team when those preseason polls start rolling out, but their chances of navigating a difficult first two weeks with undefeated record intact are somewhere between slim and none.
Oregon is participating in the 2016 Maui Invitational, which easily has the best field of any early-season tournament. But before the Ducks even get to Hawaii, they have a tough road game against Baylor as part of ESPN's Tip-Off Marathon.
If they can get by the Bears, their path to win the Maui Invitational would most likely go through Georgetown, Wisconsin and North Carolina. Even if Brooks was fully healthy and ready to contend for the Wooden Award, that's just too much of a murderers' row. Both the Badgers and the Tar Heels are Top 10 teams, and the Hoyas should bounce back from a brutal 2015-16 season to contend for the Big East title.
We'll give the Ducks wins over Baylor and Georgetown, but facing Wisconsin at less than full strength is a fine way to get saddled with an L.
14. Wisconsin Badgers
7 of 20
First Loss: Nov. 23 vs. North Carolina (in Hawaii)
With virtually everyone from last year's roster returning, no team is more prepared for November hoops than the Wisconsin Badgers.
It took more than a month for them to hit their stride last year, but those growing pains are long over. Ethan Happ has established himself as a dominant post presence. Vitto Brown has fully branched out as a stretch 4. And after barely touching the floor under Bo Ryan, Jordan Hill has proved he can be a valuable asset off the bench.
But is that enough to topple the mighty Tar Heels just one day after a Final Four-caliber showdown with Oregon in the Maui Invitational semifinal?
Even if Nigel Hayes bounces back to sophomore-year form to give Wisconsin a slight advantage in the frontcourt, UNC's backcourt should be too much for the Badgers to handle. Joel Berry II and Justin Jackson against Bronson Koenig and Zak Showalter is a mismatch in favor of the Tar Heels, and that's before factoring in UNC reserves such as Kenny Williams, Nate Britt and Seventh Woods.
It should be a great game, but our spidey sense is telling us it's the one where people start taking Berry seriously as a Wooden Award candidate.
13. Syracuse Orange
8 of 20
First Loss: Nov. 29 at Wisconsin
Between likely matchups with Oregon and North Carolina in the Maui Invitational and this ACC/Big Ten Challenge game against Syracuse, late November is positively loaded with delectable Wisconsin games. Throw in the trip to Creighton on the fifth day of the season, and it's largely due to those early challenges that the Badgers should be prepared to hand the Orange their first loss of the year.
Thanks to the late addition of Nebraska graduate-transfer Andrew White, Syracuse has a chance to be a major factor near the top of the ACC standings. Though head coach Jim Boeheim lost Michael Gbinije, Malachi Richardson and Trevor Cooney, White and Colorado State transfer John Gillon give him a ton of backcourt experience to pair with incoming freshmen Tyus Battle and Matthew Moyer.
Factor in Providence transfer Paschal Chukwu and freshman Taurean Thompson joining an already solid frontcourt corps, and it seems the sanctions/restrictions against Syracuse's recruiting didn't do much of anything to keep the Orange from putting together a team that will legitimately go 10 deep in vying for a second straight Final Four appearance.
But this is their first real test of the season—their only true road game until January—and it comes against a team returning all nine of its leading scorers from 2015-16. Perhaps Syracuse will be a more dangerous team than Wisconsin by March, but it's hard to argue against the Badgers in November.
Tyler Lydon and Tyler Roberson are the stars for the Orange, but they will more than have their hands full with Hayes and Happ. And Wisconsin knows a thing or two about slowing down White, as he had 20 points on 20 field-goal attempts in two games against the Badgers last year.
11. (tie) Purdue Boilermakers
9 of 20
First Loss: Nov. 30 at Louisville
The Boilermakers have a pair of arduous tests early in the season, but there's a chance they could go undefeated into late January if they're up to those two tasks.
We've already encountered one of those two games on this list, as we have Purdue penciled in for a home win over a Villanova team that might need some time to figure out the best course of action for its frontcourt.
This road game against Louisville in the ACC/Big Ten Challenge is the other one, and the Cardinals might be the biggest enigma heading into the 2016-17 season.
On the one hand, they lost their three best players from last year: Damion Lee, Trey Lewis and Chinanu Onuaku. And there's a strong chance we haven't heard the last of the scandal that rocked the university to its core one year ago. If the name Katina Powell shows up again in the next two months, who knows how that will affect Louisville's psyche for this game.
On the other hand, the Cardinals are loaded with talent ready to flourish. If Donovan Mitchell, Raymond Spalding and Deng Adel make the type of sophomore-year leap that most are expecting, Mangok Mathiang returns from injury and V.J. King joins the team as a highly rated freshman, the sky's the limit.
And unfortunately for Purdue, Louisville is one of the few teams with enough talent and depth in the frontcourt to go toe-to-toe with the Boilermakers. With five viable options who are 6'9" or taller, head coach Rick Pitino can throw big man after big man at Haas and Swanigan.
Should Purdue escape with the road win, though, it's going to be nearly two months before the next expected loss. A neutral-court game against Notre Dame is Purdue's third-toughest nonconference test, but it's one the Boilermakers should win comfortably. And prior to the Jan. 24 road game against Michigan State, their toughest Big Ten game is either a home game against Wisconsin or a road game against Ohio State.
There are plenty of potential losses for Purdue in the first 10 weeks of the season, but the only one that probably should happen is this battle with Louisville.
11. (tie) North Carolina Tar Heels
10 of 20
First Loss: Nov. 30 at Indiana
In a vacuum, North Carolina should be better than Indiana.
The Hoosiers will have better three-point shooting, and their power forward (Thomas Bryant) will be the first name from either team called on draft night in June. But the Tar Heels are more well-rounded, have a better point guard and center and have substantially more quality depth on their bench. Put these teams on a neutral court 10 times, and North Carolina probably wins at least seven of them.
But they only play once, it's at Indiana and the Hoosiers will be coming in with revenge on their minds.
In the 2016 Sweet 16, Indiana had no answer for Brice Johnson (20 points, 10 rebounds, three blocks) or Paige (21 points, six assists, 6-of-9 from three). North Carolina took its foot off the pedal for the final six minutes yet still won by a score of 101-86—becoming the first team to score more than 94 points against the Hoosiers since Kentucky dropped 102 on them in the 2012 Sweet 16.
Johnson and Paige graduated, though, and North Carolina's presumed replacement for Johnson (Isaiah Hicks) committed five fouls in just seven minutes in the aforementioned Sweet 16 game.
Bryant turned down what almost certainly would have been a first-round draft pick to come back for one more year—to lead Indiana deeper into the NCAA tournament than he did as a freshman. One of the first steps in that journey is taking care of business in this rematch.
8. (tie) UCLA Bruins
11 of 20
First Loss: Dec. 3 at Kentucky
Two years ago, this matchup produced one of the most lopsided blowouts ever played between blue-blood programs. Kentucky scored the first 24 points in the process of opening up a 41-7 lead by halftime. The Wildcats went on to win by a 39-point margin.
Last year, this was one of the most surprising upsets of the season. Kentucky was 7-0, while UCLA was 4-3 with losses to Monmouth and Wake Forest, yet the Bruins exacted revenge for the previous year's embarrassment in winning by a double-digit margin.
Good luck guessing what will happen this year, but Kentucky winning at home seems like the safe assumption, considering the Wildcats are 120-4 at Rupp Arena since John Calipari became the head coach.
Regardless of the final score, this should be a beautiful backcourt battle. Kentucky has future NBA stars in De'Aaron Fox, Malik Monk and Isaiah Briscoe, but UCLA isn't far behind with Lonzo Ball, Bryce Alford, Isaac Hamilton and Aaron Holiday.
But if the backcourts play to a draw, that should be an advantage for the Wildcats, because the Bruins don't appear to have a great answer for Bam Adebayo or Derek Willis.
Maybe UCLA's T.J. Leaf and Ike Anigbogu will surprise us as freshmen by emerging as stars on both ends of the court. But if that happens, it's time to stop worrying about when UCLA is going to lose its first game and start wondering whether it will lose any in the NCAA tournament.
8. (tie) Xavier Musketeers
12 of 20
First Loss: Dec. 3 at Baylor
Here's a bold prediction that's not actually very bold: Xavier will have the best nonconference strength of schedule in the country.
If the Puerto Rico Tip-Off plays to form, Xavier's first 10 games of the 2016-17 season will be: vs. Lehigh, vs. Buffalo, Puerto Rico Tip-Off (vs. Missouri, vs. Clemson, vs. Oklahoma), vs. Northern Iowa, vs. North Dakota State, at Baylor, at Colorado, vs. Utah.
Pray tell, what's the worst game on that list?
It's either the neutral-court game against Missouri or one of the home games against Buffalo or Northern Iowa—each of which has been in the NCAA tournament each of the past two years. Either way, it's not a bad game. Add in the rivalry game at Cincinnati in January, and Long Beach State's annual nonconference gauntlet might be the only one capable of holding a candle to what Xavier will go through this year.
After three weeks of that grind, though, the road game against Baylor will finally be Xavier's downfall.
Even if physical and mental fatigue weren't factors, it's hard to see the Musketeers having enough of a frontcourt presence to deal with the Bears. With James Farr graduating and Jalen Reynolds declaring for the NBA draft, Xavier is left with Norfolk State transfer RaShid Gaston, 6'6" guard-forward Trevon Bluiett and not much else.
That's enough to beat a lot of the teams it'll face, but probably not Baylor's front line of Johnathan Motley, Jo Acuil and T.J. Maston. Factor in Myles Davis' indefinite suspension for Xavier and Baylor adding Miami transfer Manu Lecomte, and it's unlikely Baylor lets this home game result in a loss.
8. (tie) Gonzaga Bulldogs
13 of 20
First Loss: Dec. 3 vs. Arizona (in Los Angeles)
Despite losing last year's three leading scorers, Gonzaga will enter the 2016-17 season with perhaps its best chance at finally reaching a Final Four.
Transfers Jordan Mathews (California), Nigel Williams-Goss (Washington) and Johnathan Williams III (Missouri) give head coach Mark Few more major-conference talent than he has had before, and his recruiting class both ranks 14th in the nation and is the most impressive haul he has ever had. This team has a chance to be special, and early games against San Diego State, Florida and either Miami or Iowa State will show it.
But Arizona coach Sean Miller has had Few's number in recent years.
Gonzaga has only lost 18 times in the past three seasons, but it is 0-3 against Arizona during that time. Granted, one of those games went to overtime, while another featured Gonzaga jumping out to a 14-point first-half lead before giving it all away. Let's not pretend the Bulldogs and Wildcats are in entirely different weight classes here.
Still, Arizona finds a way to win these games, and it's every bit the Final Four candidate that Gonzaga is, if not more so.
During his three years with California, Mathews only had one good game in seven tries against Arizona. Williams-Goss was completely shut down in both of his attempts to thwart the Wildcats. And Gonzaga simply doesn't have anyone who can match up with Markkanen.
It should be a highly anticipated game between teams ranked in the Top 10, but look for the Pac-12 team to extend its winning streak to four games.
7. Kentucky Wildcats
14 of 20
First Loss: Dec. 17 vs. North Carolina (in Las Vegas)
For most teams, a game against North Carolina in Las Vegas would be the foremost highlight of their nonconference schedule.
For Kentucky, it's a trap game.
The first five weeks of Kentucky's schedule are almost devoid of threats. The Wildcats do face a young Michigan State team in the Champions Classic before playing host to a UCLA team that may spend time this season ranked in the Top 10, but that's about it.
Stephen F. Austin and Valparaiso aren't nearly the teams they've been for the past couple of years, leaving a neutral-court game against Arizona State as their third-most intriguing game until mid-December—at which point they'll face back-to-back haymakers.
Intriguing as the matchup with North Carolina is to the college basketball nation, it'll be hard for Kentucky not to prematurely focus on the rivalry game against Louisville a few days later—just as we always wonder whether Duke or North Carolina will fall victim to a letdown in advance of facing one another.
Meanwhile, this is the singular game in December that North Carolina is concerned about. Other than this opportunity to make a statement two weeks before conference play begins, UNC's December consists of home games against Radford, Davidson, Tennessee, Northern Iowa and Monmouth. Aside from wanting to get revenge on Northern Iowa for last year's November upset, those opponents pale in comparison to Kentucky.
In a game between teams that may well both open the season ranked in the Top Five, that difference in focus heading into the game could be what dooms the Wildcats.
But you just never know with these "trap game" theories. Last year, Kentucky surprisingly lost a neutral-court game to Ohio State one week before facing Louisville. The year before that, the Wildcats led UCLA 41-7 at the half on a neutral court one week before the Louisville game.
6. Louisville Cardinals
15 of 20
First Loss: Dec. 21 vs. Kentucky
If we're right about Kentucky losing to North Carolina because it's too focused on beating Louisville, we would not want to be Louisville in this game.
Sure, it's a home game for the Cardinals, but when has that mattered in this rivalry?
In fact, since Calipari became the head coach of Kentucky, this bad-blood, intrastate battle has barely even been a rivalry. Kentucky is 8-1 over the past seven years, including a pair of wins in the 2012 and 2015 NCAA tournaments.
The only loss during that stretch came in December 2012, three months before Louisville would win a NCAA tournament that Kentucky wasn't invited to join. And despite the disparity between the two programs that year, Louisville only won that home game by a score of 80-77.
But even if we strip away the history between these two schools, Kentucky is the better team that will be more battle-tested in the weeks leading up to the game.
While the Wildcats tune up against UCLA, Valparaiso, Hofstra and North Carolina, the first 20 days of Louisville's December consist of games against Grand Canyon, Southern Illinois, Texas Southern and Eastern Kentucky—not one of which finished last season ranked in the top 125 on KenPom.com.
Failure due to lack of challenges for a prolonged period of time leading up to a big game is a myth that Harvard and Yale have thoroughly debunked in recent NCAA tournaments. However, there's still some credence to the theory, particularly early in the season for a team replacing each of last year's three leading scorers.
Louisville will need to find a new identity this year, but will it have faced enough quality opponents in the first six weeks of the season to be ready for this challenge?
5. Virginia Cavaliers
16 of 20
First Loss: Dec. 28 at Louisville
Though it will play a road game against Villanova in late January to significantly boost its nonconference computer numbers, the first seven weeks of Virginia's schedule fall somewhere between uninteresting and pathetic.
The second half of the home-and-home series with Ohio State and California could be good television, and though the Cavaliers comfortably handled West Virginia last year, the rematch with the Mountaineers has to be earmarked for some potential drama. But unless you're unreasonably optimistic about Iowa this year, that's about all she wrote. Every other game before the start of ACC play can already be penciled in as a W.
But Virginia makes up for a weak nonconference slate with an immediate blockbuster to begin the ACC season, traveling to Louisville to face a Cardinals team that may well have spent the previous week licking its wounds from a loss to Kentucky.
As we've mentioned previously in this list, Louisville is one of the great unknowns of this basketball season. It has the necessary pieces to be a title contender, but will they all come together for one glorious, team-wide breakout season?
If Donovan Mitchell has a big sophomore year for the Cardinals, there's not a shooting guard on Virginia's roster who can slow him down on either end of the floor. And while defensive rebounding is one of Virginia's biggest strengths on an annual basis, Louisville ought to be one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the country.
Moreover, Louisville has a bone to pick with Virginia. Only two of the Cardinals' losses last season came by a margin of more than eight points, and those were by a combined margin of 38 points against Virginia—this after they played a pair of tight affairs in 2015.
4. Duke Blue Devils
17 of 20
First Loss: Dec. 31 at Virginia Tech
After the Champions Classic showdown with Kansas, Duke's nonconference schedule is nothing special.
A home game against Michigan State will get plenty of national attention, but it's a game the Blue Devils should easily win. Neutral-court games against Florida and either Cincinnati or Rhode Island have a tiny bit of upset potential, but not enough to make us think twice about skipping right past those games.
Rather, it's not until Duke's first true road game and its first ACC game that there's cause for much concern.
The Blue Devils always go on a lengthy hiatus in between semesters—typically a 10- or 11-day break beginning the week before Christmas and ending just before New Year's Day—but they usually manage to squeeze one or two "get back into the flow of things" games in before the ACC schedule begins. For example, they played Utah on Dec. 19 of last year before taking more than a week off, returning to home blowouts of Elon and Long Beach State in advance of conference play.
This year, though, no such luck. They play Elon on Dec. 21 and then take nine days off before a tough road game against Virginia Tech. In fact, games against Elon and Tennessee State (Dec. 19) are Duke's only games in a three-week stretch between playing UNLV and Virginia Tech.
And while the Blue Devils are gathering dust and rust, this is the one game the Hokies will be looking forward to for months.
Virginia Tech had the start of its breakout this past season, but it has neither been to a NCAA tournament nor finished within two games of an ACC crown since 2007. From 2012-15, the Hokies were the doormat of the ACC, but this could be the defining moment when they finally turn things around by knocking off the favorite to win the national championship.
3. Texas Longhorns
18 of 20
First Loss: Jan. 7 at Iowa State
This seems like an appropriate time for a reminder that these slides are not listed in ascending order of expected greatness. Texas is ranked ahead of Duke on this list, but that doesn't mean the Longhorns are going to be better than the Blue Devils. It's simply a byproduct of Texas putting together one of the most uninspiring nonconference schedules in the entire country.
But even though the Longhorns should get through the first seven weeks of the season without a loss, don't be surprised when they have a better-than-average nonconference strength of schedule on Selection Sunday. They didn't schedule a single team projected to open the season in the Top 25, but they also didn't schedule a single team that finished below .500 in 2015-16.
It's a great way to beat the system. Rather than playing eight to 10 terrible opponents and risking losses in your limited number of games against quality foes, Texas should wind up with computer numbers similar to Indiana and Louisville, but without any likely losses.
If we crudely equate building schedules to putting together a daily fantasy lineup, most teams take a "studs and scrubs" approach, but the Longhorns simply filled out their roster with average-priced options.
Prior to the start of Big 12 play, Texas only plays one true road game, and that trip to face the Michigan Wolverines might be the only legitimate threat of a loss. You could maybe talk us into the home game against Texas-Arlington having some upset potential, but even that's a stretch.
The Longhorns even open conference play with a pair of winnable games (at Kansas State, vs. Oklahoma State) before a trip to Ames to get chopped down to size by some Hilton Magic. Texas should be a better team than Iowa State this year, but even Kansas has lost at Iowa State in three of the past five years.
2. Saint Mary's Gaels
19 of 20
First Loss: Jan. 14 at Gonzaga
To Saint Mary's credit, its nonconference schedule is much better than it has been in years past. Getting snubbed from the NCAA tournament with a 27-5 record tends to force a program to re-evaluate its SOS.
But coming off a season in which the Gaels didn't leave the state of California until February, "better" is a relative term that should not be interpreted as fraught with trials and tribulations.
There are some challenges on the schedule, the biggest of which is probably a road game against Dayton. The Gaels also travel to Stanford, play a neutral-court game against UAB and play home games against Nevada, Texas-Arlington and Western Kentucky.
Even with a few terrible games against Prairie View A&M, South Carolina State and San Jose State sprinkled in there, Saint Mary's might have a top-100 nonconference SOS this year.
But it also might not face a ranked team until more than two months into the season, when it travels to Spokane to face Gonzaga. Dayton will be close to open the season, and maybe BYU gets there by the time West Coast Conference play begins. Even if those fringe teams do sneak into the polls, Saint Mary's ought to be the better team for each of its first 16 games.
Let's not entirely blame that on the schedule, though, because the Gaels have more returning players than almost every other team in the country. Franklin Porter scored 30 points as a freshman before transferring to Portland, and he's the only player they lost. Led by the backcourt duo of Emmett Naar and Joe Rahon for a second straight year, Saint Mary's will be tough to beat.
Gonzaga will be tougher. There's too much talent on that Bulldogs roster for it to lose a home game against its conference rival for a second straight year.
1. Arizona Wildcats
20 of 20
First Loss: Jan. 21 at UCLA
What's comical about Arizona being No. 1 on this list is the Wildcats may well lose on the first night of the season. Their neutral-court opener against Michigan State could go either way, even though we've talked ourselves into Arizona as the favorite due to MSU's lack of experience.
It's not as if the next two months are without potential stumbling blocks, either. Arizona will likely face Butler in the Las Vegas Invitational and has a neutral-court game against Gonzaga one week later.
The Wildcats also play what might as well be a road game against Texas A&M in Houston, and that game is sandwiched between two sneaky-tough home games against Grand Canyon and New Mexico. Opening Pac-12 play with road games against California and Stanford is no joke, either.
There are quite a few games on the docket for which Arizona's chances of winning are only marginally better than a coin-flip situation.
But it's not until this rivalry game against the Bruins that a loss seems imminent.
That isn't to say UCLA is going to be better than Arizona this year. It's a close call, but we think the Wildcats are more likely to win the Pac-12 than the Bruins. But this is just one of those games that always causes problems for Arizona.
Dating back to March 2010, Arizona has three Pac-12 titles to UCLA's one. However, in games played either at UCLA or on a neutral court, the Bruins are 7-3 with each of the three losses coming by a single-digit margin, including last year's three-point dagger from Bryce Alford with two seconds remaining.
And UCLA should be better this year than it has been since going to three consecutive Final Fours from 2006-08. Even if the Wildcats are 19-0 heading into this game, the Bruins will likely be the favorites.
Kerry Miller covers college basketball for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @kerrancejames.
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