Caulfield Cup Betting Preview: Hartnell Clear Favorite on the Odds Board

It's now just over three weeks until the $3 million Caulfield Cup, Australia's second-richest handicap, and the market has finally sorted itself out with Hartnell installed as the clear top pick after his dominant win in last Saturday's Hill Stakes.

The Godolphin-trained Hartnell was at $15 last week for the Caulfield Cup, according to website AustralianGambling.com, but after trainer John O'Shea indicated the Caulfield Cup was high on his agenda, as opposed to a run in the Cox Plate against Winx, he is now a $5 favorite.

The former European import is back to his best after ending an 18-month dry spell with consecutive wins, and with 55kg in the 2400-meter event to be run on October 15, it is little wonder he is now the favorite.

The other significant mover was Crown Oaks winner Jameka, who assured herself a place in the Caulfield Cup field with a win in the Group 3 Naturalism Stakes (2000 meters) at Caulfield on Saturday.

Jameka was a dominant winner and as a result is now the second pick at $6.50, despite receiving a 0.5kg penalty as the result of her win. The four-year-old mare will carry 52kg in the Caulfield Cup.

Lloyd Williams' stayer The United States is the third pick at $13 but may opt instead for the Cox Plate, while British-based Exosphere is also $13 after he was brought by Australian interests. That horse will need a change of name because a horse of the same name recently raced in Australia.

There is plenty of mystery about which horses from Coolmore are headed to Australia with trainer Aidan O'Brien having put several of his stayers in quarantine, but it is not clear which horses they were.

Highland Reel is a $13 chance to win the Caulfield Cup but would shorten significantly should he come, as would Ascot Gold Cup winner Order of St George, who is $15 for the Caulfield Cup and currently top weight with 58kg.

The confirmation of which of the O'Brien horses is headed to Australia will also dramatically alter the Melbourne Cup market, which remains wide open with a pair of Europeans raiders, Big Orange and Wicklow Brave, both confirmed to come to Australia. They sit atop the market at $15 along with Hartnell.

The market for the other major race of the Melbourne Spring, the Cox Plate, won't be impacted significantly by the arrival of international horses.

Local mare and defending champion Winx, who's on an 11-race winning streak, is the $1.85 favorite, with Hartnell, who is extremely doubtful, the $9 second pick.

The United States is the $13 third pick ahead of Hauraki ($17), while a trio of Darren Weir horses— Palentino, Tosen Stardom and Black Heart Bart—are at $21.