Ranking the Top Player of the Year Candidates in the SEC in 2016-17
Whether you prefer De'Aaron Fox, Bam Adebayo, Wenyen Gabriel or Malik Monk for 2017 SEC Player of the Year, there's a great chance the award will go to a Kentucky freshman for the first time since Anthony Davis won it in 2012.
Team success is one of the most important factors in conference Player of the Year voting. Last year, 31 of the 32 conference POYs played on a team that finished in the top four in the standings. The one exception to the rule was Howard's James Daniel, who averaged 2.1 more points per game than any other player in the country.
As such, our top five candidates for SEC POY just so happen to come from our top five projected teams. But anyone expected to put up big numbers is a viable candidate for this list.
In addition to team projections, the following players are ranked in ascending order of how much of a negative impact it would have on the team if each one was suddenly unavailable for the 2016-17 season. Indispensable players on title contenders are the goal.
Honorable Mentions
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Isaiah Briscoe, Kentucky
If Briscoe's shooting percentages and turnover rate improve drastically, he has a great chance at SEC POY, considering he's the most valuable returning player for the overwhelming favorite to win the conference. But the Wildcats have so many 5-star freshmen this year that it's almost inevitable one of the newcomers becomes the star of the team.
DJ Hogg and Admon Gilder, Texas A&M
The Aggies lost four of their five starters, two of their highest-rated recruits from the past two years and had one of this year's top recruits ruled ineligible. Tyler Davis should be their star, but if this team is going to vie for a spot in the SEC's top three this year, sophomores Hogg and Gilder will need to blossom from quality bench players into the second- and third-best options in the offense.
John Egbunu, Florida
The former South Florida transfer transitioned well into the SEC, averaging 11.5 points, 6.5 rebounds and 1.4 blocks per game as a sophomore. But even if Florida turns things around to reach the NCAA tournament for the first time in three years, Egbunu will only get the credit as the Gators star if he significantly increases those numbers.
Matthew Fisher-Davis, Vanderbilt
With Wade Baldwin and Damian Jones declaring for the NBA draft, Fisher-Davis is Vanderbilt's highest-scoring returnee. He shot 44.6 percent from three-point range last year and should get more touches in 2016-17.
Mustapha Heron, Auburn
Heron might be in the running for SEC Freshman of the Year, but with Auburn losing Kareem Canty, Cinmeon Bowers, Tyler Harris and Jordon Granger, it's hard to see Heron becoming the focal point of an NCAA tournament team.
8. Antonio Blakeney, LSU
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2015-16 Stats: 12.6 PPG, 3.5 RPG, 33.5% 3PT
What other option does LSU have?
Ben Simmons and Tim Quarterman both declared for the NBA draft. Josh Gray and Keith Hornsby both graduated. Even scarcely used big man Darcy Malone transferred. And this year's recruiting class ranks 50th in the nation with a quintet of 3-star players.
In addition to Antonio Blakeney, the Tigers do still have Craig Victor, the former Arizona transfer who averaged 11.5 points and 5.6 rebounds per game last season. They also have several 2015-16 role players who could be headed for starting jobs in Jalyn Patterson, Brandon Sampson and Aaron Epps.
But it's obvious that Blakeney is going to be their star.
With Hornsby injured for the final seven games of last season, Blakeney averaged 13.9 field-goal attempts and 19.9 points per game. That was with Simmons, Quarterman and Gray still in the picture, too, so LSU's sophomore shooting guard could easily average 20 points per game this year without them.
Will all those points make up for his lack of assists, steals or blocks? Or can it possibly be enough to keep the Tigers from finishing in the bottom half of the SEC standings?
Blakeney might lead the SEC in scoring, but LSU would need to surprise a lot of people this year in order for that to result in a conference POY award.
7. Yante Maten, Georgia
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2015-16 Stats: 16.5 PPG, 8.0 RPG, 1.8 BPG
Because Marcus Thornton and Nemanja Djurisic graduated and Cameron Forte transferred to Portland State, we all expected Yante Maten to put up better numbers as a sophomore than he did as a freshman.
No one was expecting him to more than triple his scoring average in the process of becoming one of the best big men in the SEC, though.
One year removed from scoring 10 points in a game just five times, Maten had 10 double-doubles last year. He led the Bulldogs in rebounds and blocks while finishing just a couple of buckets behind J.J. Frazier for the team lead in points. He had one of the lowest usage rates on the team as a freshman, but he had one of the highest in the country as a sophomore, as his percentage of shots taken while on the floor skyrocketed from 18.3 to 30.4.
And he might be headed for an even bigger jump as a junior with Kenny Gaines and Charles Mann graduating, thus leaving behind 23.7 points per game to be divvied up among the rest of the roster.
However, we're not convinced Maten is even the most valuable player on his own team. Frazier is the star of the Bulldogs show and the one more likely to receive the various accolades if Georgia has a big year.
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6. Moses Kingsley, Arkansas
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2015-16 Stats: 15.9 PPG, 9.3 RPG, 2.4 BPG, 1.2 APG, 1.1 SPG
Like Maten, Moses Kingsley had a breakout season, somewhat predictably fueled by departed teammates. Rashad Madden and Alandise Harris graduated. Bobby Portis and Michael Qualls declared for the draft. Jacorey Williams was kicked off the team. Add it all up, and the Razorbacks had to replace more than 71 percent of their scoring last year.
Fortunately, Kingsley was up to the task. Scarcely used for his first two seasons because Portis was a better option, Kingsley entered his junior year with career averages of 3.8 points and 2.8 rebounds per game.
He blew those numbers out of the water, more than quadrupling his scoring average and more than tripling the rebounding. Kingsley was to Arkansas in 2015-16 what Rakeem Christmas was to Syracuse in 2014-15, exploding into one of the most unstoppable centers in the country after several years of barely getting on the court.
But unlike Christmas, who waited until his senior season to break out, Kingsley has another year of eligibility remaining to strut his stuff. And between four players (Jabril Durham, Anthlon Bell, Keaton Miles and Willy Kouassi) graduating and two others (Jimmy Whitt and Lorenzo Jenkins) transferring, Arkansas will once again call upon Kingsley to help it survive more than 1,000 points' worth of attrition.
Head coach Mike Anderson does have a bunch of quality transfers to help fill those gaps, but don't be surprised if Kingsley averages at least 18 points and 10 rebounds per game in his final season.
5. Devin Robinson, Florida
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2015-16 Stats: 9.0 PPG, 5.6 RPG, 34.0% 3PT
It has been a disappointing couple of years for Florida, in large part because its highly rated recruits have been massive letdowns.
In 2013, both Chris Walker and Kasey Hill were regarded as top-10 recruits, but Walker declared for the draft after two less-than-lackluster seasons, and we're still waiting on Hill to make any sort of positive impact. The following year, Brandone Francis and Chris Chiozza were both 4-star, top-50 recruits, but Chiozza has been hit or miss, while Francis was nothing but miss before leaving the program.
The one exception to the rule has been Devin Robinson, though not by much.
Robinson had a respectable 115.6 O-rating this past year, despite a midseason slump that lasted about six weeks. He finished strong, though, scoring at least 11 points in each of the final five games of the regular season.
But with Dorian Finney-Smith playing the same role with more seniority and consistency, Robinson never had much of a chance to become a go-to guy.
Until now.
With Finney-Smith the only noteworthy loss from last year's roster, Robinson stands to gain the most, potentially becoming the leading scorer for the NCAA tournament-bound Gators—unless incoming transfer Canyon Barry steals the show with his underhanded free throws.
Robinson shot 47.8 percent from three-point range in SEC play, which could be a sign that a big breakout is coming. After two straight seasons of dreadful three-point shooting as a team, the Gators are hoping he can be a part of the solution as a junior.
4. Luke Kornet, Vanderbilt
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2015-16 Stats: 8.9 PPG, 7.3 RPG, 3.0 BPG, 1.5 APG
Though he didn't do much scoring, it was a breakout junior year for Luke Kornet. He more than doubled his block rate from the previous year while also improving his rebounding rate by 68 percent.
Kornet even had a triple-double last year, recording 11 points, 11 rebounds and 10 blocks in a win over Auburn. He had seven other games with at least five blocks, so it wasn't just some fluke against a weak opponent.
And this year, the stretch 5 is one of Vandy's only frontcourt options. Josh Henderson graduated, Damian Jones went pro and freshman forward Samir Sehic transferred to Tulane. That leaves Kornet and redshirt freshman Djery Baptiste as the only returning Commodores taller than 6'7". Four-star freshman power forward Clevon Brown will also be in the mix along with presumed starting 6'6" forward Jeff Roberson, but Kornet should get all the minutes he can handle.
If he also reverts to scoring as efficiently as he did as a sophomore, he could be a star. Kornet's two-point percentage dropped by 133 points last year, and his three-point percentage fell by 120 points. Even his free-throw percentage slipped by 74 points, as a slow start followed by a knee injury doomed him to some disappointing numbers.
But we know he can be better, and we expect him to do so in Jones' absence. Kornet won't quite be Frank Kaminsky 2.0, but the shot-blocker with legitimate three-point range (97 made triples in his career) will be the key to everything for Vanderbilt this year.
3. J.J. Frazier, Georgia
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2015-16 Stats: 16.9 PPG, 4.5 RPG, 4.4 APG, 1.4 SPG, 38.6% 3PT
Statistically speaking, there aren't many better returning players in the country than J.J. Frazier. There are 51 categories for which Sports-Reference.com ranks the top 20 players in each conference, and Frazier shows up in 33 of them for the SEC, including ranking seventh in points per game, seventh in assists per game, eighth in steals per game and third in win shares per 40 minutes.
There were 10 players last season who averaged at least 16.5 points, 4.3 rebounds, 4.3 assists and 1.3 steals per game. Seven were seniors. Two declared for the NBA draft. And the other was Frazier.
With both of his backcourt mates (Kenny Gaines and Charles Mann) graduating, Frazier ought to be even more of a scoring machine this year.
So, why is he only the SEC's third-best candidate for POY?
Team success is a huge portion of the equation, and lack of it hurt Frazier last year. Forget about Player of the Year, he didn't even make it onto the eight-man, All-SEC first team, thanks, no doubt, to the Bulldogs finishing in a tie for sixth place in the conference standings before missing the NCAA tournament.
Even if his individual numbers improve, will the team? Juwan Parker returning from injury should help, as will freshman shooting guard Tyree Crump and JUCO transfer Pape Diatta, but the Bulldogs need a lot to go right in order to finish in the SEC's top four.
2. Tyler Davis, Texas A&M
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2015-16 Stats: 11.3 PPG, 6.2 RPG, 1.1 BPG
Danuel House and Jalen Jones were the primary scorers for Texas A&M last year, but freshman big man Tyler Davis was the key to success for the Aggies. When he scored at least 10 points, they went 19-2. In all other games, they went 8-7.
Davis led the team in blocks, ranked second in rebounds and third in points, and he finished well ahead of every returning Aggie in each of those categories, as he is A&M's only returning starter.
And while he had a solid first season, it felt like we were only seeing the tip of the iceberg.
According to KenPom.com, Davis ranked 37th in the nation in offensive rebounding percentage and 21st in two-point field-goal percentage, but he ranked fifth among A&M's regulars in percentage of shots taken—despite leading the team in O-rating. It was as if the Aggies were just occasionally using Davis as a decoy to open up scoring lanes for the drastically less efficient House and Jones.
Now that House, Jones, Alex Caruso and Anthony Collins are each gone, though, Davis is about to become the featured piece of this offense. Given the remaining options, he should comfortably lead the Aggies in rebounds and blocks and ought to be their top scorer, too. If that's enough for Texas A&M to finish runner-up to Kentucky, it might also be enough for SEC POY.
1. Pick a Kentucky Freshman
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2015-16 Stats: N/A (Incoming Freshmen)
Apologies for grouping Bam Adebayo, De'Aaron Fox, Malik Monk, Wenyen Gabriel and Sacha Killeya-Jones into one slide like this, but it was the only way to prevent this SEC slideshow from turning into a ranking of Kentucky's roster.
Unless this entire freshman class falls flat on its face—don't hold your breath—Kentucky is going to win the SEC with room to spare. Expectations for the Wildcats aren't quite as high as they were last year, but the quality of their challengers is drastically worse.
In last year's preseason AP Top 25, Vanderbilt was No. 18, LSU was No. 21 and Texas A&M got the 29th-most votes. If any SEC team other than Kentucky appears in this year's preseason Top 25, it'll be time to swap out voters for ones who will actually do some research. Case in point, Chris Dortch posted his Blue Ribbon Top 25 this week, in which Kentucky is No. 4, and that's all she wrote for the SEC.
And if the gap between Kentucky and the rest of the conference is as wide as we expect, you can just about take it to the bank that a Wildcat will be named SEC POY.
Which Wildcat, though, is anyone's guess. Though Fox and Monk are potential top-10 draft picks, the smart money might be on Adebayo. Those two guards and Isaiah Briscoe should both put up great numbers, but the frontcourt phenom ought to be a double-double machine. Plus, everyone loves a fun nickname (see: Hield, Buddy), and Bam is a great one, so he's got that edge over his teammates.
But it'll just boil down to which one of these future NBA stars is able to take the reins in college. Kentucky's nonconference games against Michigan State, North Carolina, UCLA and Louisville should go a long way toward identifying who will be the star of the SEC in 2016-17.
Stats are courtesy of KenPom.com or Sports-Reference.com, and recruiting information is courtesy of 247Sports, unless noted otherwise.
Kerry Miller covers college basketball for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @kerrancejames.
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