Predicting the Unsung Heroes for Top College Basketball Teams in 2016-17
Looking back on Villanova's national championship, it's easy to credit the play of Josh Hart and Kris Jenkins for that successful run. But just as important to the Wildcats' title was the efforts of lesser-regarded players such as Ryan Arcidiacono and Daniel Ochefu, without whom those results probably wouldn't have been possible.
Every team has at least one of those players who, on the surface, isn't looked at as a star, but when all is said and done, their effort rises to that level. Who will that be on each of college basketball's projected top teams for 2016-17? We've made our predictions, either based on how they've performed in the past or what will be expected of them this season.
Check out our selections, then give us your thoughts in the comments section.
Arizona Wildcats: Ray Smith
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Last season Arizona had a loaded frontcourt and some talented players on the perimeter but lacked anyone to bridge those two groups together. Ray Smith was supposed to be that guy, but a torn ACL suffered during the preseason robbed him of his freshman year.
It was the 6'8” Smith's second such injury in the last two seasons, the other keeping him out of his senior year of high school. His rehab from this latest ailment has been slow, but all signs point to him being fully cleared for the 2016-17 season when he'll again be looked at to play a critical role.
Arizona's backcourt is overloaded with shooters and ball-handlers, while the frontcourt is rebuilding and can use Smith's length and defensive ability. He might not put up big numbers but could end up being a stopper on the wing tasked with guarding many opponents' best players.
Baylor Bears: Jo Acuil
2 of 20Gone is bruising big man Rico Gathers, whose fierce rebounding skills and physicality will be hard to replace. But Jo Acuil might just be able to fill that void while also giving Baylor an inside presence on the offensive end and in terms of rim protection, two things Gathers didn't excel at.
The 7'0” Acuil is a junior college transfer who was part of the program last season but was forced to sit out because of a heart condition. Prior to arriving in Waco, he averaged 20.1 points, 11.2 rebounds and 4.7 blocks per game at Neosho County Community College in Kansas.
Acuil's potential was on display during the Bears' recent exhibition trip to Italy. If that translates back to the states, he could be an integral part of this year's team.
Connecticut Huskies: Kentan Facey
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As a team, Connecticut had 14 instances in which a player recorded a double-double last season. A dozen of those were by Daniel Hamilton, who has since turned pro, while another was from now-graduated forward Shonn Miller. That leaves only Kentan Facey as an active Huskies player who achieved that feat, and they may ask for him to do that more often in 2016-17.
The 6'10” senior has averaged 3.1 points and 3.7 rebounds for his career, though that's come in only 13.7 minutes per game, including just 12.7 last season. Spread over 40 minutes, his 2015-16 numbers would have been 9.8 points and 11.7 rebounds thanks to 57.3 percent shooting and a strong 16.4 percent rebound rate.
Facey is one of four players at 6'10” or taller on UConn's roster, including 7-footer Amida Brimah, but he might have the best shot at being an offensive asset instead of just a defensive presence.
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Duke Blue Devils: Amile Jefferson
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How differently would Duke's national title defense have gone had Amile Jefferson not suffered a season-ending foot injury in December? Before getting hurt, the 6'9” Jefferson was a beast in the paint with 11.4 points and 10.3 rebounds per game on 68.3 percent shooting over nine contests, but after going down, his absence was incredibly noticeable.
Jefferson was granted a medical redshirt, giving him a second shot at his senior year, though the arrival of freshmen big men Marques Bolden and Harry Giles figures to turn him back into a reserve at some point, if not right away. But that doesn't lessen his importance, not if the Blue Devils hope to avoid the depth issues that plagued them in 2015-16.
While he might no longer be a starter or even have a defined position on the floor, that could lead to him being even more impactful.
"Coach (Mike Krzyzewski) talked about Draymond Green and how I can be a player like that," Jefferson said on Duke's Web site. "A guy that makes plays and plays hard and doesn’t really have a position. I’ve been working on my ball-handling and my skill shooting the ball from 17, 18 and 19 feet and being able to make that that jump shot consistently."
Gonzaga Bulldogs: Zach Collins
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Gonzaga's continued run as the best mid-major program in college basketball may hinge on how its frontcourt shapes up for 2015-16. It was in great shape last year, even after Przemek Karnowski was shut down early because of a back injury, thanks to Domantas Sabonis and Kyle Wiltjer, but those two are gone and Karnowski's recovery is ongoing.
The Bulldogs have other options for the paint, though, including incoming freshman Zach Collins. A 7-footer who was rated as the fifth-best center in the 2016 recruiting class, Collins figures to get thrown right into the mix to be a key contributor. He won't have to do it all, not with Missouri transfer Johnathan Williams III now eligible and fellow freshman posts Jacob Larsen and Killian Tillie around, and if Karnowski is able to return to his old form, that would further lessen the need for Collins to do a lot.
Still, Collins isn't going to be brought along slowly, and by the time Gonzaga inevitably makes a 19th consecutive NCAA tournament appearance, he could be a fixture down low.
Indiana Hoosiers: Juwan Morgan
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As good as Indiana's 2015-16 season went, it could have gone a lot better had injuries not affected several players. James Blackmon tore his ACL in December, Robert Johnson was hobbled by a sprained ankle and Juwan Morgan was frequently affected by a shoulder injury that lingered from high school and led to surgery this offseason.
Morgan still managed to play most of last year, appearing in 30 games as a freshman but only getting 9.1 minutes per game while averaging 2.4 points and 2.1 rebounds. A fully healthy Morgan in 2016-17 would be a boon for the Hoosiers, who need someone to contribute alongside Thomas Bryant in the frontcourt.
"With Max Bielfeldt graduating and Troy Williams declaring for the draft, Indiana has an opening for a stretch 4," Bleacher Report's Kerry Miller wrote. "Morgan just might start at power forward and become one heck of an asset on defense and a fifth option on offense."
The 6'8” forward showed his potential in a February win over Nebraska when he had 12 points and five rebounds in 11 minutes.
Kansas Jayhawks: Carlton Bragg
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The arrival of No. 1 prep prospect Josh Jackson has Kansas fans thinking big for this season, with that dynamic wing joining the veteran backcourt of point guards Devonte' Graham and Frank Mason as well as plenty of great options up front. Though who emerges from the frontcourt might matter more than anything Jackson does.
That area was somewhat of a revolving door last season, with five different players splitting minutes. Carlton Bragg was at the lower end of the pecking order, 8.9 minutes per game, but he did reach double figures three times, including in consecutive Big 12 tournament games in March.
Sports Illustrated's Luke Winn has pegged Bragg as the top candidate for breakout-player status this season, noting the 6'10” sophomore is "the obvious heir to (Perry) Ellis’s face-up four role" due to his aggressive nature that led to him ranking third behind Ellis and Wayne Selden in field goal attempts per 40 minutes. He made 56.1 percent of his shots, second only to Landen Lucas among returners, so that bodes well for the Jayhawks if Bragg gets more court time.
Kentucky Wildcats: Isaac Humphries
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Kentucky will once again have one of its preseason practices shown on television, one of many chances for NBA scouts to get an up-close look at the Wildcats' numerous pro prospects. Most of those are freshmen since Kentucky's roster thrives on one-and-done players, but also among those worth watching is the tallest guy in the group.
Isaac Humphries, who is 7'0” and 250 pounds, appeared in 23 games and logged just over nine minutes per contest. He averaged 1.9 points and 2.4 rebounds per game with his most memorable moment—and not in a good way—when he picked up a technical foul late in an overtime loss at Texas A&M.
Kentucky has reloaded up front with the addition of Bam Adebayo, Wenyen Gabriel and Sacha Killeya-Jones, all of whom were rated among the top 24 players in the 2016 recruiting class. Humphries will be hard-pressed to outshine those prospects. If he continues to develop physically and makes the most of his chances, he'll end up playing a significant role.
Louisville Cardinals: Deng Adel
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Of Louisville's three highly regarded freshmen from last season, Deng Adel saw the least action. Donovan Mitchell and Raymond Spalding were used much more and should continue to be in 2016-17, while Adel's minutes will depend on how much he's improved the parts of his game that were limited in his first year.
Most notably: a tendency to turn the ball over—3.9 turnovers per 40 minutes and a 24.3 percent turnover rate, the worst among players appearing in at least 10 games—and an unwillingness to give up the ball once it came to him.
"None of the bad items appear to be long-term issues with Adel's game," Jeff Greer of Louisville's Courier-Journal wrote. "Reports from summer practices and the Adidas Nations camp he attended with Donovan Mitchell say Adel has markedly improved in those areas."
While the 6'7” Adel will be battling with Louisville's top newcomer in V.J. King for playing time, his experience in Rick Pitino's system and the offseason dedication to getting better should benefit him and the Cardinals.
Michigan State Spartans: Gavin Schilling
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Outside of Duke and Kentucky, few major programs will have as much of a new-looking roster in 2016-17 than Michigan State. Five of the top six scorers are gone, and guard Eron Harris is the only returning player who started more than half the games.
Gavin Schilling started four times in 2015-16, logging 65 minutes in those contests, but in the 20 other games he played he averaged of 11.8 minutes, and for the season had only 90 points and 75 rebounds. He was never able to fully catch on after missing Michigan State's first 11 games because of a toe injury, yet he's the most experienced returning frontcourt player for the Spartans.
The 6'9”, 250-pound senior will share the paint with UNLV graduate transfer Ben Carter as well as incoming freshmen phenom Miles Bridges and Nick Ward. For Schilling to stand out will require him to "get his mentality there," coach Tom Izzo told Chris Solari of the Lansing State Journal.
North Carolina Tar Heels: Theo Pinson
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Theo Pinson is a former five-star prospect whose flashes of that potential haven't been as frequent as his bursts of comic relief. It isn't so much that he's underperformed to this point in his career as that he hasn't done anything to stand out from the pack.
That time is now for the 6'6” junior, who has averaged 3.9 points, 3.1 rebounds and 2.4 assists in 64 career games. Low shooting numbers have been to blame for much of his struggles, hitting only 28.1 percent from three-point range and 39.3 percent overall.
Building strength has been key to Pinson getting in position for a breakout junior year. He's now at 205 pounds after entering college at 170, which should make him more durable and able to be more than a jump-shooter. Combine that with a push to be more involved on defense, and he's ready for the spotlight.
Oregon Ducks: Dylan Ennis
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Had Dylan Ennis stayed at Villanova for his senior year, he would now have a national championship ring. Instead he was stuck on the sidelines watching his new team get to the Elite Eight but without his assistance. That's because Ennis missed all but two games in 2015-16 because of a foot injury.
He was granted a medical redshirt but has to find a way to break into a lineup that's mostly unchanged for the Ducks from a year ago. An offseason injury to Dillon Brooks, which may bleed into the regular season, could be the opportunity the 6'2” Ennis needs to show he can be a valuable asset like he was at Villanova.
Ennis—who began his career at Rice—averaged 9.9 points, 3.7 rebounds and 3.5 assists with the Wildcats in 2014-15.
Purdue Boilermakers: Spike Albrecht
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Spike Albrecht achieved folk-hero status when he erupted for 17 points, including four three-pointers, in the 2013 national championship game for Michigan as a freshman. Since then there have been plenty of ups and downs, including a senior year with the Wolverines that resulted in only eight games because of injury.
It looked like he was ready to be done with basketball but then decided to play one more season, and after getting a medical redshirt for 2015-16, opted to finish his career at another Big Ten school. And Purdue is glad to have him, if only to bring some experience, leadership and stability to a backcourt that was very uneven last season.
The Boilermakers were ninth nationally in assist percentage but couldn't settle on who was their primary ball-handler. In addition to being a 39.9 percent three-point shooter, Albrecht has a career assist-to-turnover ratio of 3.22.
Saint Mary's Gaels: Jock Landale
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Though it's been guards like Matthew Dellavedova and Patty Mills—as well as current backcourt standouts Emmett Naar and Joe Rahon—who have tended to draw the most notice from Saint Mary's, just as important to its prolonged success under coach Randy Bennett have been capable big men.
The current Gaels team had that last season in 6'9” forward Dane Pineau and, to a lesser extent, 6'11” center Jock Landale. Both are from Australia, as seemingly every notable Saint Mary's player is, with Landale coming off a solid sophomore year in which he averaged 7.8 points and 3.9 rebounds in only 14.5 minutes per game.
Evan Fitzner started all but one game at center last season and figures to do the same this year, but Landale's value off the bench remains high. His 255 pounds can help wear down defenders and open things up for the rest of the Gaels.
Texas Longhorns: Shaquille Cleare
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When Texas landed 5-star big man Jarrett Allen in June, it filled a major hole in the lineup. Last season the Longhorns had a wealth of size in the paint, with four players splitting time down on the block, but only Shaquille Cleare is back for 2016-17.
Cleare isn't likely to start ahead of Allen, but the 6'8”, 275-pound senior is going to be involved. How much will depend on whether he can keep himself from getting pulled because of a lack of body control.
Cleare averaged six fouls per 40 minutes, which contributed to him only earning 12.2 minutes per game with only four occasions over 20 minutes. If he can avoid the silly fouls and make the most of his size, Texas will have a formidable pair of big men to work with.
UCLA Bruins: Aaron Holiday
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A starter as a freshman a year ago, Aaron Holiday is set to move to the bench through no fault of his own. He averaged 10.3 points, 3.0 rebounds and 4.0 assists and shot a team-best 41.9 percent from three-point range, but even double those numbers wasn't going to keep him in the lineup with Lonzo Ball coming in for 2016-17.
Though its arguable Holiday would work better alongside Ball in the backcourt than Bryce Alford, the coach's son, odds are Steve Alford will be keeping that other starting position in the family and thus turning Holiday into a top Sixth Man of the Year candidate.
Not many teams will be able to turn to someone who averaged double figures in a reserve situation. As much as Ball's arrival will help, Holiday could be the key to UCLA rebounding from the rough 2015-16 season.
Villanova Wildcats: Eric Paschall
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Following a strong freshman season at Fordham, Eric Paschall looked for something bigger and better and ended up at Villanova. Transfer rules forced him to sit out the Wildcats' national championship triumph, but he gets to be a part of the title defense, and he might be just what they need up front with Daniel Ochefu's graduation.
The 6'7” Paschall averaged 15.9 points and 5.5 rebounds at Fordham in 2014-15 to win Atlantic 10 rookie of the year honors. That was as a guard, while with Villanova he figures to play the 4 in a lineup that will be heavy on perimeter play but needs someone to contribute from the wing and in.
That's where Paschall could thrive, which he showed during a recent exhibition trip to Spain. He averaged 12.3 points with 6.3 rebounds in three games, going for 21 and seven in the final outing (per SB Nation).
Virginia Cavaliers: Mamadi Diakite
18 of 20A rare non-injury redshirt as a freshman, Mamadi Diakite got to spend his first season at Virginia learning the complicated system that has bred such success the last few years. Because of this, when he makes his debut in November, he won't be like most first-time players.
The 6'9”, 214-pound Diakite figures to be an important part of a Cavaliers frontcourt that said goodbye to Anthony Gill, Evan Nolte and Mike Tobey. Though 6'9” Memphis transfer Austin Nichols is also eligible, 6'11” Jack Salt and 6'7” Isaiah Wilkins return and the freshman class includes 6'11” Jay Huff, Diakite will get his chance.
This may start out first on the perimeter while he continues to become stronger, but that means he can show off a shooting stroke that will make him a matchup nightmare.
Wisconsin Badgers: Brevin Pritzl
19 of 20A foot injury limited Brevin Pritzl to just four minutes in his freshman year, so it's understandable he would be labeled as "rusty" by Wisconsin coach Greg Gard (h/t Jim Polzin of the Wisconsin State Journal) this summer. Once he shakes off the rust, though, he could give the Badgers a valuable extra weapon in the backcourt.
The 6'3” guard has the reputation for possessing a strong outside shot, something that is integral to playing in Wisconsin's system. Starting guards Bronson Koenig and Zak Showalter combined to make 120 of 320 three-pointers, but there wasn't anyone coming off the bench to complement that.
Pritzl can also be helpful on defense, fitting into a approach that allowed only 63.8 points per game last season.
Xavier Musketeers: J.P. Macura
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One of two Xavier players who got in trouble this offseason, guard J.P. Macura has managed to keep his nose clean since partying a bit too hard in the spring and figures to be in the running for a starting spot this season. Part of the reason for that is because senior Myles Davis has been suspended indefinitely in the wake of multiple off-the-court incidents.
The 6'5” Macura averaged 9.4 points and 2.6 rebounds in 22.7 minutes per game last season, shooting 47 percent overall and 35.6 percent from three-point range. He made four starts in 2015-16, including in February against Marquette when he scored a career-high 20 points on 7-of-8 shooting.
To further his chances of having a bigger role this season, Macura participated on a travel team of college players that competed in Germany and Holland this summer.
All statistics courtesy of Sports-Reference.com, unless otherwise noted. All recruiting information courtesy of 247Sports.com, unless otherwise noted.
Follow Brian J. Pedersen on Twitter at @realBJP.
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