Ranking the Top Player of the Year Candidates in the Pac-12 in 2016-17
Washington's Markelle Fultz might be the No. 1 overall pick in the 2017 NBA draft, but that's not quite enough for him to project as our Pac-12 Player of the Year. Rather, it's a different freshman point guard in the top spot, because Lonzo Ball is the main reason UCLA is likely going to open the season ranked in the top 15 in the nation.
Team success is one of the most important factors in conference Player of the Year voting. Last year, 31 of the 32 conference POYs played on a team that finished in the top four in the standings. The one exception to the rule was Howard's James Daniel, who averaged 2.1 more points per game than any other player in the country.
As such, our top four candidates for Pac-12 POY just so happen to come from our top four projected teams. But anyone expected to put up big numbers is a viable candidate for this list.
In addition to team projections, the following players are ranked in ascending order of how much of a negative impact it would have on the team if each one was suddenly unavailable for the 2016-17 season. Indispensable players on title contenders are the goal.
Honorable Mentions
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Jabari Bird, California
The 2013 McDonald's All-American spent his first three seasons playing third middle to Tyrone Wallace and Jordan Mathews, but Bird is now the man in California's backcourt. Ivan Rabb is the Golden Bear more likely to get POY votes, but Cal won't amount to much this season unless it gets big numbers out of Bird.
Tyler Dorsey, Oregon
We'll touch on Dillon Brooks' foot injury in a little bit, but Dorsey will be the primary ball-handler and scorer for however long Brooks is sidelined. Dylan Ennis will play a factor in Dorsey's contributions, but he could be headed for a monster sophomore season after averaging 13.4 points per game last year.
Bennie Boatwright and Chimezie Metu, USC
Between Nikola Jovanovic declaring for the NBA draft and Malik Martin and Darion Clark both transferring out of the program, Boatwright and Metu are the only returning forwards on this roster. Boatwright averaged 11.5 points per game as a freshman and should be headed for a much bigger role as a sophomore. Metu was a great defensive weapon who will get more offensive touches. At least one of them will put up numbers worthy of POY consideration.
Bryce Alford, Isaac Hamilton and Thomas Welsh, UCLA
UCLA should be significantly better this year, but these three guys put up solid numbers last year for a team that went 15-17. If the Bruins have the turnaround we're expecting, Lonzo Ball will be viewed as the catalyst for change and should get most of the POY votes.
8. Lorenzo Bonam, Utah
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2015-16 Stats: 10.2 PPG, 3.3 RPG, 3.0 APG, 1.0 SPG, 40.0% 3PT%
Larry Krystkowiak has found some real gems in unorthodox places in recent years.
Delon Wright came from City College of San Francisco. Jakob Poeltl was from Austria. And Lorenzo Bonam played two years at Gillette College in Wyoming. Bonam originally committed to Southern Miss, but when that program started dealing with the fallout from the Donnie Tyndall scandal, he changed his mind and ended up at Utah.
Advantage: Utes.
Bonam didn't put up huge numbers last season, but he wasn't a focal point of the offense, either. Jakob Poeltl was option No. 1, followed by Jordan Loveridge and—once he remembered how to shoot—Brandon Taylor. But like a "lite" version of Wright before him, Bonam made his impact felt all over the court with passing, defense and efficient scoring.
This year, though, Bonam is on Utah's short list of viable weapons. He and Kyle Kuzma are the only returning Utes who did much of anything last season. Bonam should become the primary ball-handler and one of the first scoring options in the offense.
Whether he scores enough or Utah wins enough for that to amount to POY consideration remains to be seen, but Bonam is in a better position to do some damage and make a name for himself than most of the other players in the Pac-12.
7. Dillon Brooks, Oregon
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2015-16 Stats: 16.7 PPG, 5.4 RPG, 3.1 APG, 1.1 SPG, 33.8% 3PT%
Had we made these rankings a few months ago, Dillon Brooks absolutely would have been No. 1.
He arguably should have been named 2016 POY instead of Utah's Jakob Poeltl, as Brooks was the most valuable player for the best team in the conference—a team that smoked Utah three times by a combined margin of 59 points, no less. There's no chance Oregon would have gotten a No. 1 seed last year without him, and it's because he chose to put off the NBA draft for at least one more year that the Ducks spent most of the offseason as the favorites to win the Pac-12.
But a "hot spot" on his foot that became public knowledge in July resulted in foot surgery in August and a recent report from Tyson Alger of the Oregonian that head coach Dana Altman doesn't expect to have Brooks back for the start of the regular season.
How long will the injury linger? And how crisp will his game be after several months of not being able to practice?
If he's back by the beginning of December and looks like himself by the start of Pac-12 play, there's still a good chance Brooks wins POY while propelling the Ducks to another conference title. There's enough uncertainty, though, that we had to drop him a few spots.
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6. Lauri Markkanen, Arizona
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2015-16 Stats: N/A (Incoming Freshman)
The first of several freshmen on this list, Lauri Markkanen's stock has been soaring this offseason.
The Finnish stretch 4 wasn't even rated by 247Sports as one of the top 20 freshmen in this year's class, but Mike Schmitz of DraftExpress recently tweeted: "Really think that Markkanen eventually ends up in or near the top five of the 2017 Draft."
That's because Markkanen owned the 2016 FIBA U20 European Championships.
According to FIBA.com, Markkanen averaged 24.9 points, 8.6 rebounds, 2.3 steals and 1.3 blocks in the seven games—while playing just 26.5 minutes on average. That puts his per-40 numbers at 37.4 points and 12.9 rebounds.
To help put those numbers in perspective, Frank Kaminsky averaged 22.3 points and 9.8 rebounds per 40 minutes when he won the 2015 Wooden Award. And like Kaminsky, Markkanen has some range, sinking 13 three-pointers in those seven games.
It's a small sample size and the competition wasn't nearly as stiff as what he'll face with Arizona, but it got everyone buzzing.
Last offseason, it was Jamal Murray who took the college basketball world by storm. He reclassified to 2015, signed with Kentucky and dominated international events in the latter half of the summer before balling out for the Wildcats and becoming a lottery pick. Arizona is hoping Markkanen follows the same career arc.
5. Markelle Fultz, Washington
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2015-16 Stats: N/A (Incoming Freshman)
Here's where we test the limits of the divide between team success (or lack thereof) and individual greatness.
Markelle Fultz is one of the top candidates for the No. 1 overall pick in the 2017 NBA draft. NBAdraft.net has Fultz going No. 4, NBAdraftroom.com has him at No. 3, and DraftExpress currently has the incoming freshman projected No. 1.
But that doesn't necessarily mean he'll be the Pac-12 POY.
LSU's Ben Simmons was the No. 1 overall pick this past June, but it was Kentucky's Tyler Ulis who won SEC POY. Duke's Brandon Ingram went No. 2 behind Simmons, but Virginia's Malcolm Brogdon was named the ACC POY.
And LSU and Duke each went 11-7 in their respective conferences. Do you really think Fultz will win if Washington fails to even go .500 in Pac-12 play?
If he's as good as advertised, he's a mortal lock for Pac-12 first team—especially considering the Pac-12 thinks it's perfectly OK to put 10 players on its first team. But no matter where he finishes the season on the projected draft boards, Fultz won't be Pac-12 POY unless Washington at least gets into the NCAA tournament.
If the Huskies do dance, though, Fultz may well be one of the front-runners for the Wooden Award.
4. Ivan Rabb, California
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2015-16 Stats: 12.5 PPG, 8.5 RPG, 1.2 BPG, 0.9 APG
As is the case with Markelle Fultz, Ivan Rabb is an example where conference POY projections don't exactly match up with NBA draft projections.
Unless his sophomore year goes horribly awry, Rabb is going to be a lottery pick in June. He would have been one a few months ago, but he became the latest player to turn down a chance at a top-10 pick for one more year of college ball.
Individually, we expect big things. Others to go that route in recent years include Jared Sullinger, Marcus Smart and Kris Dunn, and each one had a sophomore season that was either as good as or better than his freshman season. And Rabb should be getting significantly more touches this year with Tyrone Wallace, Jordan Mathews and Jaylen Brown no longer on the roster.
Without those teammates, though, will the Golden Bears be good enough to produce the Pac-12 POY?
We had them at No. 4 in our projected standings last month, but that tier of Cal, USC, Utah and Colorado could have gone in any order. A fourth-place finish might be enough for Rabb to win, but sixth or seventh wouldn't do the trick.
It's a brutally unfair system. Whether Rabb goes down as the conference's best player really depends on whether Grant Mullins can make the transition from the Ivy League to the Pac-12 and whether Kameron Rooks or Kingsley Okoroh is ready to legitimately contribute in this frontcourt. But that's the way the cookie crumbles, and it will likely keep Rabb from winning.
3. Chris Boucher, Oregon
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2015-16 Stats: 12.1 PPG, 7.4 RPG, 2.9 BPG, 33.9% 3PT%
With Dillon Brooks expected to be sidelined for the beginning of the season and Oregon still expected to be one of the top two contenders for the Pac-12 title, we're almost obligated to have a Duck somewhere in the top three.
Why not Chris Boucher?
The man is a 6'10" Swiss Army knife. In the seven seasons since Sports-Reference started tracking block percentage and rebounding percentage, only two players have had a block percentage of at least 11.5 and a total rebounding percentage of at least 16.0 while making at least 10 three-pointers. Those players are Boucher and Texas' Myles Turner.
And Boucher is more efficient than the No. 11 pick in the 2015 NBA draft was. Boucher shot 66.7 percent from inside the arc and had an effective field-goal percentage of 60.5—compared to Turner's 48.8. In terms of points produced, O-rating and offensive box plus/minus, Boucher blew Turner out of the water.
With Elgin Cook, Dwayne Benjamin and (temporarily) Brooks out of the picture, Boucher is bound to get more minutes and touches than he did last season. He and Jordan Bell will combine to make the most impenetrable frontcourt in the country, but Boucher's offensive skill set will set him apart as the MVP of this team.
2. Allonzo Trier, Arizona
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%2015-16 Stats: 14.8 PPG, 3.3 RPG, 1.1 APG, 36.4% 3PT%
Between redshirt freshmen Ray Smith and the trio of 5-star recruits in this year's class (Lauri Markkanen, Rawle Alkins and Kobi Simmons), Arizona's cup runneth over with raw talent.
But here's a pop quiz: The Wildcats trail by one. They have the ball and there are 10 seconds left on the clock. Who's the first option to take the game-winning shot?
If you answered anyone other than Allonzo Trier, either you forgot he's coming back for a sophomore year, or you've had a few too many sips of the freshman Kool-Aid.
Trier is a bucket-getter. Whether the Wildcats need a trey, a deuce or a trip to the free-throw line, he's arguably their best option.
He doesn't do much else. He'll grab the occasional board, but as a freshman, Trier averaged just 7.3 combined rebounds, assists, steals and blocks per 40 minutes. Even though that's slightly better than what Devin Booker did in his one season at Kentucky (6.7), counting on Trier for anything other than points would be ill-advised.
But points he will get. Unless Markkanen goes crazy en route to a lottery pick, Trier will lead Arizona in scoring by a significant margin and come to be regarded as the most irreplaceable piece of a title contender.
1. Lonzo Ball, UCLA
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2015-16 Stats: N/A (Incoming Freshman)
From the season-opening home loss to Monmouth through to the season-ending 24-point loss to USC, UCLA was dreadful in 2015-16. The Bruins did have a few nice surprise victories over Kentucky, Gonzaga and Arizona, but even with those Ws, they still finished below .500 for just the fourth time in the last seven decades.
But with stud freshman point guard Lonzo Ball joining the team this year, expectations for UCLA are as high as they have been since 2008.
Ball isn't going to average 25 points per game, but a sophomore-year Jason Kidd type of stat line (16.7 PPG, 9.1 APG, 6.9 RPG) might not be a ludicrous projection.
With Rajon Rondo-like passing skills and court vision and scorers like Bryce Alford, Isaac Hamilton, Aaron Holiday and Thomas Welsh at his disposal, Ball is going to rack up a ton of assists. As far as the rebounding average is concerned, at 6'6" on a roster that figures to frequently use a four-guard lineup, there will be stretches of games where Ball is the second-tallest Bruin on the court. Unless he's deliberately avoiding the ball on the defensive glass, he should get at least five rebounds per game.
Factor in UCLA's up-tempo offense and high-scoring tendency, and Ball could be in line for a few triple-doubles this season. If he does so while the Bruins have a bounce-back year to finish in the top three of the Pac-12 standings, he'll be a shoo-in for conference POY.
Kerry Miller covers college basketball for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @kerrancejames.
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