AFL Semi-Finals Betting Preview: Hawthorn, Sydney Odds Favorites for Matches

The time for second chances is gone and it's do-or-die for every remaining match of the 2016 AFL finals series, starting with this weekend's semi-finals between Hawthorn and Western Bulldogs, and Sydney and Adelaide.

Both the Hawks and the Swans, who own the past four AFL premierships between them, would have hoped to avoid a trip to the semi-finals, but qualifying final defeats last week has cast them into the path of the two elimination final winners from last week.

For Hawthorn, history is on the line, as defeat would end their quest to match the record of four consecutive premierships set by Collingwood nearly 90 years ago. Their position in Friday's match against the Dogs at the MCG was decided by Issac Smith's errant shot after the siren against Geelong.

But the rebound path is one the Hawks have walked before, having lost their qualifying final last year before embarking on a three-match winning streak which saw them win the Grand Final. The Hawks are clear $1.45 favorites for the match according to website AustralianGambling, having drifted slightly since markets opened.

In fact, history tells us that those who lose the qualifying finals are generally well placed to bounce back. Between 2000 and 2013, only two of 28 teams went out in "straight-sets." However, in the past two years, three teams out of four have lost back-to-back, which will give some hope to the Bulldogs.

The Dogs were certainly impressive in their upset win over the Eagles last week. They go into this match having had early support this week. They were $2.83, but have since moved to $2.65 based on popular support. They are, however, the longest-priced team to win the premiership at $13.

The Dogs' record against the Hawks isn't great. They've lost their last eight against them by an average of 38 points, but did get within three points when they last met in Round 3 this year.

The Dogs don't play at the MCG much, just twice this year, while their last win against the Hawks at this Friday's venue was back in 2007. The final stat which the Dogs are looking to overturn in this one is their record in finals. They've never beaten the Hawks in a final and the last time they won two finals in a row was 1961.

When you compare that to the Hawks' finals record of having played 17 finals games for 12 wins in the past five years, you see the mountain they face and why the line is placed at 11.5.

The market expects the Sydney-Adelaide match to be closer. The Swans are $1.47 to rebound, while the Crows, who easily accounted for the Kangaroos, are $2.70. The line is 10.5 in the Crows' favour.

The Swans are $6.50 to win the premiership, while the Crows join the Bulldogs at $13.

Sydney were the first minor premier to lose a qualifying final in 10 years after being ambushed by GWS, and face a team who beat them by 10 points when they met earlier this year.

The Giants exposed a few vulnerabilities in the Swans, who had eight players with under 50 games experience and coach John Longmire has some hard decisions to make at the selection table.

The Crows paid dearly for their Round 23 loss to the Eagles which cost them a spot in the top four. But they have still won 13 of their past 15 and a win here would make amends for that slip-up and get them a spot in the final four.

Statistically, this is the league's best offense (Adelaide) against the league's best defense (Sydney), and it will be a battle for each to get the match played on their terms.

The total match points line is 174.5, and the stats tell us that while 61 per cent of Sydney's games this season have gone under that total, 70 per cent of the Crows' 2016 games have gone over 174.5.