Houston Cougars vs. Cincinnati Bearcats Betting Odds, College Football Pick

The Houston Cougars think they've got a shot to crash this year's College Football Playoff, but to get that far they might have to beat the Cincinnati Bearcats not just once, but twice. And Houston is only 1-2 straight up and 0-2-1 against the spread versus Cincinnati over the last three seasons.

In a possible preview of this season's AAC Championship Game the Cougars face off with the Bearcats on Thursday night at Nippert Stadium in Cincinnati.

Point spread: The Cougars opened as 7.5-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

College football pick, via Odds Shark computer: 39.0-29.4 Cougars (College football picks on every game)

Why the Houston Cougars can cover the spread

The best non-Power Five team in the country is off to a 2-0 start to this season after blanking Lamar last week 42-0. And that was without quarterback Greg Ward, who sat out with a sore shoulder. The Cougars, as 42-point favorites, eased out to a 14-0 lead over the Cardinals after one quarter, led 28-0 at the half and basically settled for the push, scoring just twice in the second half.

On the day Houston outgained Lamar 511-73, grinding out 381 yards on the ground with Ward on the sidelines.

The Cougars opened the season two weeks ago with a 33-23 upset of Oklahoma. As long as Ward is somewhere near 100 percent it appears this Houston outfit could beat almost anybody.

Why the Cincinnati Bearcats can cover the spread

Cincinnati, one of the preseason favorites to win the AAC East, is also off to a 2-0 start after beating a Big Ten team on the road last week, winning at Purdue 38-20. The Bearcats grabbed an early 14-0 lead on the Boilers, and later stretched that to 31-7 early in the fourth quarter before allowing Purdue to make the score a little more respectable. Still, they cashed easily as three-point favorites.

On the day Cincinnati racked up 512 yards of offense, including 262 on the ground, while sophomore quarterback Hayden Moore threw three touchdowns passes and ran for two more scores.

Two weeks ago the Bearcats opened their season with a 28-7 victory over UT-Martin, holding the Skyhawks scoreless over the final 54 minutes of the game.

Cincinnati beat Houston in 2013 and 2014, and while they lost to the Cougars last year 33-30, the Bearcats covered as nine-point underdogs.

Smart pick

Houston didn't need Ward last week, and Sports Illustrated's Pete Thamel indicated he'll be good to go Thursday night. But the Bearcats have played the Cougars tough recently, and should be all sorts of fired up for this one. The best bet in this spot is the home underdog.

Betting trends

The total has gone over in six of Cincinnati's last seven games in September.

Cincinnati is 11-3-1 ATS in its last 15 games against its conference.

Houston is 14-1-1 ATS in its last 16 games on the road.

All college football betting lines and point spreads data courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and Odds Shark YouTube for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.