Arkansas Razorbacks vs. TCU Horned Frogs Betting Odds, College Football Pick

TCU is 12-3 against the spread over its last 15 home games, while Arkansas is 8-2 ATS over its last 10 road games. Former Southwest Conference rivals will renew acquaintances when the Frogs and the Razorbacks meet Saturday night in Fort Worth.

Point spread: The Horned Frogs opened as six-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

College football pick, per the Odds Shark computer: 40.0-31.9 Horned Frogs (College football picks on every game)

Why Arkansas can cover the spread

It wasn't exactly the way they hoped to open this season, but the Razorbacks managed to avoid disaster by holding off Louisiana Tech last Saturday 21-20. Arkansas spotted the Bulldogs an early touchdown, later took a 14-7 lead, fell down 20-14 but scored on an Austin Allen touchdown pass with six minutes to go and held on from there. On the day, the Razorbacks only came up with 297 yards of offense but limited Tech to 291. And they won time of possession by a 36:41-23:19 margin.

Allen, the junior who is taking over the QB spot at Arkansas from his brother, Brandon, hit on 20 of 29 throws, including a pair of touchdown passes. And new feature running back Rawleigh Williams III ran 24 times for 96 yards and a score.

With 14 starters back from an 8-5 team a season ago, including nine on defense, the Razorbacks probably have their best team in four seasons under head coach Bret Bielema.

Why TCU can cover the spread

TCU opened its 2016 campaign with a 59-41 victory over a game South Dakota State team last Saturday. TCU trailed the Jackrabbits in the second quarter 17-7 but rallied to take the lead for good midway through the third quarter. It later iced the victory with a pair of late scores. On the night, the Frogs racked up 662 yards of offense, including 223 on the ground.

Transfer quarterback Kenny Hill, who showed promise while at Texas A&M, threw two early interceptions but recovered to throw for 439 yards and two touchdowns and run for three more.

TCU only returned three starters on offense this season, but Hill could prove valuable. Meanwhile, eight starters returned for the Frogs on defense, so they should improve upon the 27.2 points per game they allowed a season ago.

Smart pick

The Frogs may hold an edge in the quarterback comparison, but their defense just gave up 461 yards to an FCS team. Meanwhile, the Hogs just struggled with Louisiana Tech, but their defense played well. If it can get its running game going, Arkansas should keep this one close, even possibly pulling off an upset.

Betting trends

TCU is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 games at home.

Arkansas is 4-11 straight up in its last 15 games on the road.

Arkansas is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games against the Big 12.

All college football betting lines and point spreads data courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and Odds Shark YouTube for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.