The Bettor's Guide to NFL Week 1
We're already one game into Week 1, but it's not too late to look into how every game is handicapped for the coming weekend. We'll walk you through the line movement and best odds available via Odds Shark's line accumulator as we shift through which games offer the best value.
Some squads are incorrectly favored, either by matchups, trends or simple power rankings. Others are correctly favored but are overvalued by the point spread. There are interesting narratives in all 15 of the remaining games, which include only one favorite of more than one touchdown.
In what should shape up to be an entertaining first week of football, there is plenty of space to find an edge in the opening weekend.
Carolina @ Denver (Thursday, 8:30 p.m. ET)
1 of 17
Line: Denver +3
Result: Denver 21, Carolina 20
You're never going to guess this: The reigning Super Bowl champion beat the reigning Super Bowl runner-up at home to start the season.
This line was out of whack at the jump. Carolina being favored on the road by three points meant that the Panthers would have been nearly double-digit favorites at home if this game were in Charlotte, which is insane, considering the Broncos defense was the best in the league last year.
Von Miller, DeMarcus Ware and Shaquil Barrett chased down quarterback Cam Newton and hit him over and over and over in a repeat of his Super Bowl 50 experience. In the end, the Panthers blew a two-score fourth-quarter lead, but they had a chance to go for the win, not the cover, late before an icing of their kicker led to a missed field goal with less than one minute left on the clock.
Everyone got the performance that they wanted out of Denver quarterback Trevor Siemian, depending on how rose-colored their glasses were. You can point out two interceptions and a 69.1 passer rating, or you can focus on the Broncos trusting him enough to have him pass late in the game. He also had a clutch first-down scramble against man coverage that led to an eventual score.
These teams are who they are. Denver's pass rush is a bad matchup for Carolina's bookends, and the Broncos cornerbacks make it hard to stretch that squad vertically if the edge defenders are able to get into Newton's face.
The Panthers are far from a dire situation at 0-1, and Denver is going to have a slight liability at quarterback in the short term while it builds up Siemian's confidence.
Cover: Denver
Buffalo @ Baltimore (Sunday, 1 p.m.)
2 of 17
Opening line: Baltimore -3 (even)
Best home line: Baltimore -3 (-110)
Best away line: Buffalo +3 (+103)
For this game, all you need to look at is two trends.
First, Rex Ryan's teams typically start fast out of the gate. In his seven seasons as a head coach, his teams have won six season-openers, with the single loss coming by one point against the Baltimore Ravens.
- 2009: 24-7 win @ Houston
- 2010: 9-10 loss vs. Baltimore
- 2011: 27-24 win vs. Dallas
- 2012: 48-28 win vs. Buffalo
- 2013: 18-17 win vs. Tampa Bay
- 2014: 19-14 win vs. Oakland
- 2015: 27-14 win vs. Indianapolis
Last year, one of the most shocking Week 1 results was his Buffalo Bills upsetting the Indianapolis Colts, who were the clear favorites in the AFC South at that point, by nearly two touchdowns. When you get the chance to take Ryan in openers or nationally televised games, it's a smart move to align yourself with him.
For whatever reason, he and the limelight seem to go hand-in-hand.
Second, according to TeamRankings.com, the Baltimore Ravens covered only one game outright at home last season in eight tries. Baltimore's largest acquisitions this offseason all came via the draft, and even then, they are marginal at best.
Ronnie Stanley, the team's first-round pick, is a replacement for left tackle Eugene Monroe, who the Ravens released in the summer, but he is still a rookie offensive lineman. They also lost their third-round pick, Bronson Kaufusi, for the season due to a broken ankle.
The best case for the Ravens improving this year involves some combination of assuming a 37-year-old Steve Smith Sr., a 33-year-old Terrell Suggs, a 32-year-old Elvis Dumervil and a 31-year-old Eric Weddle return to prime form. Breshad Perriman, who has made just two preseason receptions over the last 21 months, also returns to potentially give Joe Flacco some sort of a deep threat, but it's hard to consider Perriman something you can bank on at this point.
The pick: Buffalo +3
Chicago @ Houston (Sunday, 1 p.m.)
3 of 17
Opening line: Houston -4.5 (-110)
Best home line: Houston -5.5 (-110)
Best away line: Chicago +6.5 (-110)
After losing by multiple scores to three of the NFC's heaviest hitters in Green Bay, Arizona and Seattle last season, the Chicago Bears were able to finish down the stretch with a respectable 6-7 record in their final 13 games of the year. One reason for that was the success of quarterback Jay Cutler.
Cutler has never been regarded as an elite quarterback but as a high-variance quarterback dating back to his days with the Denver Broncos. Under the guidance of Adam Gase, though, he posted his second-best completion percentage for his career (64.4 percent), his highest passer rating of his career (92.3) and his fewest interceptions thrown (11) in a season consisting of more than 10 starts.
Basically, the Bears held him back from even looking at deep routes on early downs, forcing him to be a game manager early on while still allowing him to rip the ball when they were off schedule offensively. So long as they continue to take that approach, the Bears shouldn't regress on offense, as Jeremy Langford proved his potential as a primary ball-carrier against the San Diego Chargers on national television last year.
The Bears improved their interior offensive line by signing former Green Bay Packers All-Pro guard Josh Sitton after final roster cuts and kicking Kyle Long, another former All-Pro guard, inside from right tackle. On the defensive side of the ball, they benefited from the additions of Akiem Hicks, Jonathan Bullard, Leonard Floyd, Jerrell Freeman and Danny Trevathan in the front seven.
This pick isn't so much of a knock on the Houston Texans, who looked like the mini-version of the Arizona Cardinals in their Week 3 preseason matchup, but respect for Chicago's progress. A 6.5-point line in favor of the Texans, even at home, suggests they would be favorites on the road at Soldier Field, which just doesn't make sense on paper.
If you asked me to pick a team to win, the choice would be Houston, but too many points are swinging the Bears' way. Underestimating them on the road isn't anything new, but they went 6-2 against the spread on the road last year, per TeamRankings.com.
The pick: Chicago +6.5
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Tampa Bay @ Atlanta (Sunday, 1 p.m.)
4 of 17
Opening line: Atlanta -3 (-115)
Best home line: Atlanta -3 (+105)
Best away line: Tampa Bay +3 (+110)
No one knows what to think about this matchup. For the most part, outside of the juice, every book has the same number on this game: the Atlanta Falcons being favored by three points.
That should come to little surprise, as home-field advantage factors into the majority of lines. The Buccaneers were 6-10 last year; the Falcons were 8-8. It's not a stretch to call them teams with a similar tier of talent.
In fact, despite Tampa Bay beating Atlanta twice last season, the games were close. Their last battle in the Georgia Dome finished in overtime, and their duel in Tampa resulted in just a four-point game. In situations like this, you have to dig deeper to find an edge.
One reason you should be concerned about betting on the Buccaneers is their tendency to lose big when they do fall short. Of their 10 losses last season, seven came by more than touchdown, for a combined score of 109-224.
For reference, the Falcons lost only three games by more than a touchdown last season. Atlanta also has the best matchup on the field, with All-Pro receiver Julio Jones going toe-to-toe with an undersized Tampa Bay cornerback unit whose three best talents are under 5'11".
Tie goes to Quintorris Lopez Jones.
The pick: Atlanta -3
Oakland @ New Orleans (Sunday, 1 p.m.)
5 of 17
Opening line: New Orleans -1.5 (-110)
Best home line: New Orleans -1 (-110)
Best away line: Oakland +1.5 (-110)
The Oakland Raiders are the media's "next up" team. After they finished 7-9 with a stable of young players such as Derek Carr, Amari Cooper and Khalil Mack, there is good reason for that.
With that being said, context is vital in any point spread. The New Orleans Saints, who historically have had a significant home-field advantage playing in their dome stadium, are just one-point favorites according to some books, which is insane.
Let's say that you would typically give the Saints a four-point advantage for playing at home rather than on a neutral field. That would make them three points under the Raiders from a power-ranking standpoint. At home, that makes the Raiders six-point favorites over New Orleans, using the assumed average home-field advantage of three points.
Out of its 16 games last year, Oakland beat only three teams by more than six points: the Cleveland Browns, San Diego Chargers and New York Jets. The Browns and Chargers finished with top-three draft picks after their 2015 seasons, combining for a 7-25 record.
The Raiders won only one game by more than a single possession last season. They're good for their age, but they shouldn't be favored by that much from a power-ranking standpoint.
The numbers just don't add up here. If the Saints were three-point favorites, a key number, that's when it would make sense to start trending toward the Raiders.
Giving a young team the benefit of the doubt early on in the season is an odd stance for bettors to make, though. Give me New Orleans and its recently extended quarterback Drew Brees at home in this pseudo pick'em.
The pick: New Orleans -1
Green Bay Packers @ Jacksonville (Sunday, 1 p.m.)
6 of 17
Opening line: Green Bay -3.5 (-110)
Best home line: Jacksonville +6 (-110)
Best away line: Green Bay -4.5 (-115)
If you do a straight-up reflection of the Packers being a 4.5-point favorite on the road, you're going to end up with a reverse-engineered line of Green Bay as double-digit favorite against the Jaguars at home. The smart move is always to take the double-digit dog in those situations, and this reflects to value in this particular line, but you need to step back and think about what you're doing here.
Last year, the Jacksonville Jaguars lost nine games by five or more points. The teams who beat them in that fashion were Carolina, New England, Tampa Bay, Houston twice, the New York Jets, San Diego, Atlanta and New Orleans. From a power-ranking standpoint, the only team with higher Super Bowl odds than the Packers out of that group is New England.
That is to say this: At home and away, the Jaguars lost more games than not by more points than the current line in this game against a team that is considered to be better than most of the squads they played last year.
On top of that, Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers doesn't have much of a home-away split, relative to the rest of the league.
- 2015 away passer rating: 90.2
- 2014 away passer rating: 94.2
- 2013 away passer rating: 91.8
- 2012 away passer rating: 114.9
- 2011 away passer rating: 117.2
For reference, here are the season-long passer ratings for the quarterbacks who played in last year's Pro Bowl:
- Russell Wilson: 110.1
- Tyrod Taylor: 99.4
- Eli Manning: 93.6
- Derek Carr: 91.1
- Teddy Bridgewater: 88.7
- Jameis Winston: 84.2
Rodgers' talent travels, which bodes well for a team that is structured around him down to its aggressive pass-orientated defense. This is a story of Dave Caldwell vs. Goliath.
The pick: Green Bay -4.5
Minnesota @ Tennessee (Sunday, 1 p.m.)
7 of 17
Opening line: Minnesota -3 (-110)
Best home line: Minnesota -2 (-110)
Best away line: Tennessee +2.5 (-105)
Since 2010, Shaun Hill has started nine road games. In those games, he has thrown 11 touchdowns and 11 interceptions and has a situational record of 2-7.
| Year | Team | Score | Comp % | TD | INT | QB Rating |
| 2014 | San Diego | L 24-27 | 51.4 | 1 | 2 | 54.2 |
| 2014 | Washington | W 24-0 | 72.7 | 2 | 0 | 133.3 |
| 2014 | Seattle | L 6-20 | 70.3 | 0 | 2 | 65.5 |
| 2010 | Minnesota | L 10-24 | 67.4 | 1 | 2 | 69.6 |
| 2010 | Green Bay | L 26-28 | 63.0 | 2 | 2 | 77.0 |
| 2010 | New York Giants | L 20-28 | 60.0 | 1 | 0 | 99.6 |
| 2010 | Buffalo | L 12-14 | 58.0 | 1 | 1 | 75.7 |
| 2010 | Dallas | L 19-35 | 68.1 | 2 | 1 | 89.8 |
| 2010 | Miami | W 34-27 | 71.8 | 1 | 1 | 87.3 |
The Minnesota Vikings should not be favored on the road against anyone in the league with that quarterback. Period.
The pick: Tennessee +2.5
Cincinnati @ New York Jets (Sunday, 1 p.m.)
8 of 17
Opening line: New York Jets -1.5 (-110)
Best home line: New York Jets +2.5 (+100)
Best away line: Cincinnati -2.5 (-110)
The Cincinnati Bengals are nearly three-point favorites on the road in Week 1. That may shock some gamblers, but Cincinnati was on track to prove itself as a dominant team before Andy Dalton's injury last season.
In fact, the Bengals covered every single road game they played in last year, per TeamRankings.com. In eight games last year, all six of their road victories came by more than three points.
The only teams they lost to on the road were the Arizona Cardinals, who with an injured Carson Palmer still got to the NFC Championship Game, and the Denver Broncos when AJ McCarron was the Bengals starting passer, which ended in an overtime win for the eventual Super Bowl champions.
The 2015 New York Jets did finish with a 10-6 record, but they lucked out by playing only three playoff teams in Washington, New England and Houston. To compete with the Bengals, who might still have the most complete roster in the league, you need to be a contender, and the Jets were a fringe playoff team that played a soft schedule last season.
If you really think about it, where is New York better than Cincinnati? The Bengals have the advantage at quarterback, running back and the offensive line and are going to have the best pass-catcher on the field in A.J. Green. How can the Jets possibly keep up with that offense?
If you were lucky enough to snatch this line up when the Bengals were underdogs, congratulations.
The pick: Cincinnati -2.5
Cleveland @ Philadelphia (Sunday, 1 p.m.)
9 of 17
Opening line: Philadelphia -7 (-110)
Best home line: Philadelphia -4 (-110)
Best away line: Cleveland +4 (-110)
In the preseason, the passing games of the Philadelphia Eagles and Cleveland Browns were polar opposites.
On one hand, the Browns added Terrelle Pryor, who apparently now is a Randy Moss-like deep threat, and Corey Coleman, a speedy first-round rookie. On top of that, quarterback Robert Griffin III quickly won the starting job, threw the deep ball with confidence in the preseason and has already been named a team captain.
On the other hand, the Eagles will start rookie quarterback Carson Wentz, who played only in Week 1 of the preseason, when he had a 41.8 passer rating and left the game with a rib injury. All summer, he has been preparing to be the third quarterback on the depth chart, but Philadelphia somehow convinced Minnesota general manager Rick Spielman into thinking that Sam Bradford was worth a first-round pick and has changed its plans.
At the end of the day, Wentz is an unproven rookie who is transitioning from being an FCS prospect to an NFL starter after just 24 snaps, which were brutal. He will see live bullets for a month because of that injury, too.
The Eagles well may be in the running for the first overall pick, which the Browns would own in a draft that will be hosted in Philly. Wentz won five titles with North Dakota State, but if he escapes this game without one around his eye, he should consider that a win.
The pick: Cleveland +4
San Diego @ Kansas City (Sunday, 1 p.m.)
10 of 17
Opening line: Kansas City -7.5 (-105)
Best home line: Kansas City -6.5 (-110)
Best away line: San Diego +7 (-120)
The Kansas City Chiefs have won 11 of their last 12 games, but when you look at their record split last year, you realize why. In the first seven weeks of the year, they finished with a 2-5 record after playing six playoff teams.
In their last nine games, they played only one playoff team, the Denver Broncos, and finished the year 11-5. Kansas City has been on a hot streak, but it hasn't exactly gone toe-to-toe with the best of the AFC like you could make the case the Cincinnati Bengals did last year.
On top of that, the public is still giving the Chiefs too much credit at home. In seven home games last year, Kansas City went 2-5 against the spread, while the San Diego Chargers went 6-2 against the spread on the road last season, despite their 4-12 record, per TeamRankings.com.
This is a Chiefs team that may not have running back Jamaal Charles and won't have pass-rusher Justin Houston. This is just too many points for a non-elite team to be favored by.
The pick: San Diego +7
Miami @ Seattle (Sunday, 4:05 p.m.)
11 of 17
Opening line: Seattle -7.5 (-110)
Best home line: Seattle -10 (-110)
Best away line: Miami +10.5 (-110)
You think of the Seattle Seahawks as a dominant team, but that isn't always the case in September. Here are their last five records heading into October:
- 2015: 1-2
- 2014: 2-1
- 2013: 4-0
- 2012: 2-2
- 2011: 1-2
Seattle basically treads water in September, and above list includes two overtime wins that the team couldn't punch in during regulation. In Week 1 since 2011, the Seahawks have gone 2-3, with a 4-6 record in the first two weeks of the season.
On paper, Seattle should be favored, but this line opened up with the Seahawks projected to win by more than a touchdown, and it has already moved over the key number of 10 points. Head coach Pete Carroll likes to have young players all over the depth chart, which is why the squad boasts 15 rookies, but that also means early-season growing pains, as we've seen over the years.
Bet on Seattle big down the stretch. Don't bet on Seattle big out of the gate.
The pick: Miami +10.5
New York Giants @ Dallas (Sunday, 4:25 p.m.)
12 of 17
Opening line: Dallas -4 (-110)
Best home line: Dallas +1 (-110)
Best away line: New York Giants +1 (-110)
The New England Patriots won't play starting quarterback Tom Brady in Week 1, and their line dropped about a touchdown since his suspension was announced. The Dallas Cowboys won't play starting quarterback Tony Romo in Week 1, and their line dropped about a field goal since his injury occurred.
Something doesn't add up here.
The emergence of Dak Prescott has us thinking that the Cowboys might be fine, but this game is a virtual pick'em. You've been blessed with a pick'em involving a Day 3 rookie quarterback who is making his first start on a team whose front seven might be the worst in the NFL.
In suspensions alone, Dallas is missing a pass-rushing duo in Demarcus Lawrence and Randy Gregory, as well as linebacker Rolando McClain. Last year, largely due to injuries, the Cowboys finished with a 4-12 record, including just one home victory against the spread, per TeamRankings.com.
The Giants added four early contributors in the 2016 offseason in receiver Sterling Shepard, pass-rusher Olivier Vernon, run-plugger Damon Harrison and cornerback Janoris Jenkins. This is a tale of two teams that are trending in opposite directions.
The pick: New York Giants +1
Detroit @ Indianapolis (Sunday, 4:25 p.m.)
13 of 17
Opening line: Indianapolis -6 (-110)
Best home line: Indianapolis -3.5 (+100)
Best away line: Detroit +3.5 (-110)
Every part of this game feels like a shootout. Both the Detroit Lions and the Indianapolis Colts are led on the offensive side of the ball by quarterbacks whose playmaking ability translates to both completed deep passes and various mistakes.
They both play like heroes, which can help or hurt their squads on a down-to-down basis. Neither offense has a true starting-quality running back: Frank Gore might be the worst No. 1 back in the league, while the Lions' Ameer Abdullah is a fumble-prone, 5'9" back who leaves the game in short-yardage situations.
Both squads are going to want to pass, and neither has a solid defense.
Detroit has three notable defenders: pass-rusher Ziggy Ansah, cornerback Darius Slay and linebacker DeAndre Levy, whose lingering hip issue kept him out of the entire 2015 season. Indianapolis has one: Vontae Davis, who is going to miss the game due to an ankle injury.
Last year, the New York Giants and New Orleans Saints combined for 101 points in a single game on the Superdome turf. The same result may be in store for Lucas Oil Stadium.
In a shootout, give me the points, especially if the favorite is over the key number of three. I have no faith in either of these teams becoming a title contender this year.
The pick: Detroit +3.5
New England @ Arizona (Sunday, 8:30 p.m.)
14 of 17
Opening line: New England -1 (-110)
Best home line: Arizona -6 (-110)
Best away line: New England +6 (-105)
Both of these teams have massive questions at the quarterback position, which we have no answers for at the moment.
The New England Patriots will start Jimmy Garoppolo, a third-year quarterback from Eastern Illinois, as Tom Brady serves his Deflategate suspension. Garoppolo has yet to start an NFL game in his career, and his projection is a bit of a wild card, even if head coach Bill Belichick did find success with Matt Cassel in 2008.
The Arizona Cardinals were incredible with Carson Palmer for the majority of the 2015 season, but a finger injury during the team's matchup against the Philadelphia Eagles last year hurt his efficiency.
Between Weeks 1 and 15, Palmer completed 65.4 percent of his passes for 28 touchdowns and three interceptions. From Week 16 through the playoffs, his completion percentage dropped to 58.7, while he threw seven touchdowns and eight interceptions.
This preseason wasn't kind to Palmer, either, as he completed just 54.6 percent of his throws, threw no touchdowns and recorded three interceptions. To put that into context, his completion percentage this preseason was worse than all but one of the 48 passers who recorded 60 or more passes last year.
This is problematic, as the Cardinals offense is based around Palmer throwing a quality deep ball. You don't get a chance to bet on Belichick teams as underdogs often, let alone by nearly a touchdown.
Tie goes to The Hoodie.
The pick: New England +6
Pittsburgh @ Washington (Monday, 7:10 p.m.)
15 of 17
Opening line: Washington +2.5 (-110)
Best home line: Washington +3 (+100)
Best away line: Pittsburgh -3 (-110)
The Washington Redskins, who made the playoffs and haven't lost back-to-back games since Week 5 and 6 of last season, are home underdogs? The same team that finished the regular season 4-0, 5-1, 6-2 or 7-3—however you want to spin it?
In Pittsburgh, that means this game would be a nine- or 10-point game in favor of the Steelers from a power-ranking perspective. Did we forget Pittsburgh had to benefit from two back-to-back personal fouls with less than 30 seconds left in a playoff game to put away AJ McCarron and the Bengals?
Sure, Kirk Cousins may Madden-glitch a spike into a kneel again, but this line really respects the Steelers, who will be missing their best high-pointing threat in Martavis Bryant and their top running back in Le'Veon Bell. This game feels like a shootout, as both squads have stellar vertical-stretch players and secondary pieces who are acclimating to new positions on new squads.
Shootout rule: take the dog.
The pick: Washington +3
Los Angeles @ San Francisco (Monday, 10:20 p.m.)
16 of 17
Opening line: San Francisco +2.5 (-110)
Best home line: San Francisco +2.5 (+100)
Best away line: Los Angeles -2.5 (-110)
So let me get this straight: The Los Angeles Rams, who won a total of two games by more than eight points, would be 8.5-point favorites at home based on this powering ranking? That seems insane, considering they were last in the NFL in passing touchdowns last season and aren't starting a new quarterback.
The one strength the Rams have is the running game, but the San Francisco 49ers are going to run a truer 3-4 defense, built to stop the run first, than anyone else in the league this season. Their pair of 6'7" defensive ends in Arik Armstead and DeForest Buckner will look to shut down Todd Gurley rather than try to sack Case Keenum.
Whatever you want to say about Chip Kelly, he still managed to win 26 games in Philadelphia with a "gimmick" offense—six more games than Jeff Fisher has in the last three years. In free agency, the Rams lost cornerback Janoris Jenkins and safety Rodney McLeod, and their top active draft pick may be fourth-round tight end Tyler Higbee.
In Colin Kaepernick's last start in 2015, the Rams won a 27-6 game. Blaine Gabbert, the 49ers' Week 1 starter, did pull out a 19-16 overtime win against the Rams team later in the season. This line is just way too high, even if you don't believe in San Francisco's prospects long-term.
Sometimes the best plays are ugly, which is why Vegas builds new casinos and gamblers keep losing money.
The pick: San Francisco +2.5
Locks of the Week
17 of 17
- Buffalo (+3) @ Baltimore
- Chicago (+6.5) @ Houston
- Oakland @ New Orleans (-1)
- Green Bay (-4.5) @ Jacksonville
- Cincinnati (-2.5) @ New York Jets
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