Penn State Nittany Lions vs. Pittsburgh Panthers Betting Odds, Football Pick

The Pittsburgh Panthers are just 1-6 against the spread over their past seven home games, while the Penn State Nittany Lions are 0-9 ATS over their past nine games on the road. How will the spread shake out when Pitt and Penn State renew their great old Keystone State football rivalry Saturday afternoon at Heinz Field?

Point spread: Panthers opened as 4.5-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

College football pick, via Odds Shark computer: 19.8-17.0 Panthers (College football picks on every game)

Why the Penn State Nittany Lions can cover the spread

The Lions opened their 2016 campaign last Saturday with a 33-13 victory over Kent State. The score was tied at 13-13 midway through the second quarter, before Penn State scored the last 20 points of the contest.

The Lions outgained the Golden Flashes 354-279, as sophomore quarterback Trace McSorley, making his first career start, threw for 209 yards and two touchdowns, without an interception, and running back Saquon Barkley ran 22 times for 105 yards and another score. Meanwhile, the PSU defense held Kent State without an offensive touchdown, and scored one of its own.

Penn State returned 14 starters from a 7-6 team of a season ago, including 1,000-yard rusher Barkley, 1,000-yard receiver Chris Godwin and four along the offensive line.

Why the Pittsburgh Panthers can cover the spread

The Panthers began their season with a 28-7 victory over Villanova last Saturday. Pitt took a 14-0 lead into halftime, then iced the game when sophomore Quadree Henderson took the second half kickoff back 96 yards for a touchdown. For the day the Panthers only produced 261 yards of total offense, but held the Wildcats to just 172, and without an offensive touchdown. Villanova's only score came on the return of a Pitt fumble in the third quarter.

Panthers QB Nathan Peterman threw two touchdown passes without a pick, bumping his career TD/INT ratio to 22/10. Meanwhile RB James Conner, who scored 26 touchdowns two seasons ago, then missed almost all of last season with some serious health issues, scored twice, once on a run and once on a short pass reception.

In the bigger-picture, Pitt returned 16 starters from a team that went 8-5 last year, eight on each side of the ball.

Smart pick

The Panthers may hold certain edges, perhaps at quarterback and on defense, but the spread on this game appears inflated slightly toward the home team. Also, the personnel and styles are similar. For a game that almost seems destined to come down to a field goal it's nice to have some points in your pocket. The betting value here lies with the Lions.

Betting trends

Penn State is 3-1 straight up and 0-4 ATS in its last four games against Pittsburgh.

The total has gone under in three of Pittsburgh's last four games against the Big Ten.

Penn State is 0-9 ATS in its last nine games on the road.

All college football betting lines and point spreads data courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and Odds Shark YouTube for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.