Kentucky Wildcats vs. Florida Gators Betting Odds, College Football Pick

Florida absolutely owns its football rivalry with Kentucky, leading the all-time series 49-17 and winning the last 29 meetings straight up, going 8-1 against the spread in the last nine matchups. Will the Gators extend that run when they take on the Wildcats at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium on Saturday afternoon?

Point spread: Gators opened as 16.5-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

College football pick, via Odds Shark computer: 27.8-18.1 Gators (College football picks on every game)

Why the Kentucky Wildcats can cover the spread

The Wildcats kicked off their 2016 campaign by giving one away, falling at home to Southern Mississippi last Saturday 44-35. Kentucky actually led the Golden Eagles 21-7 after one quarter and 35-10 late in the second before allowing Southern Miss to score the final 34 points of the game. On the day, the Wildcats racked up 443 yards of offense, much of that courtesy of several big plays, but once momentum started to slide the other way, Kentucky couldn't stop it.

Sophomore quarterback Drew Barker, making his third career start, hit on 15 of 24 throws for 323 yards and four touchdowns against one interception, while wide receiver Garrett Johnson caught six balls for 143 yards, including scoring connections of 43 and 53 yards.

The Wildcats have returned 14 starters this season from last year's 5-7 team. If the defense comes around, Kentucky has a chance to snap a five-season bowl drought.

Why the Florida Gators can cover the spread

Florida opened its season with a 24-7 win over UMass last Saturday. The Gators struggled offensively for much of the evening and only led by a field goal through three quarters, but they put the game away by outscoring UMass 14-0 in the fourth quarter. Florida outgained the Minutemen 363-187, as the Gators defense allowed just 46 yards rushing on 35 attempts.

Florida transfer quarterback Luke Del Rio, making his first career college start, hit on 29 of 44 passes for 256 yards and two touchdowns without an interception, while wide receivers Brandon Powell and Antonio Callaway combined to catch 15 balls for 145 yards.

The Gators have returned a dozen starters—six on each side of the ball—this season from a team that went 10-4 and won the SEC East last year.

Smart pick

Florida owns Kentucky, but the last few games in this series have been closer than usual. Three years ago, the Gators needed a fourth-quarter score to secure a cover as 14-point favorites. Two years ago, the Wildcats pushed Florida to triple overtime before falling 36-30. And last year, the Gators only outgained Kentucky by four yards in a 14-9 decision. If the defense can just make a few stops, the Wildcats could keep this one close, too.

Betting trends

Kentucky is 0-21 SU in its last 21 games against Florida.

Kentucky is 1-8 ATS in its last nine games against Florida.

Florida is 11-3 ATS in its last 14 games in Week 2.

All college football betting lines and point spreads data courtesy of Bleacher Report's official odds partner, Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and Odds Shark YouTube for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.