AFL Premiership Finals Week 1 Betting Preview, Odds, Analysis

AFL fans have endured 10 days of agony between the last match of the regular season and the start of the much-anticipated finals series. But after one of the closest seasons in recent memory, the final battle for the 2016 premiership is set to begin in four cities this weekend.

Kicking things off is a rare Thursday night final, where the Western Bulldogs travel to Perth to take on last year's beaten grand finalist West Coast in an elimination final. The Eagles, who finished the season as arguably the competition's form team, winning nine of their past 10, overcame the loss of star ruckman Nic Naitanui to win the final match of the round and ruin Adelaide's top four hopes.

The Dogs, on the other hand, look to be feeling the effects of a horror injury run. Losing three of their last six they slumped to seventh on the table and now have to travel to Subiaco where they have not won since 2010. That's a run of seven straight losses, four of them to the Eagles at an average margin of 84 points.

It's not surprising that bookmakers have them as $4.50 outsiders, according to website AustralianGambling, with a line start of 28.5. In fact, given the form of the respective teams—the Bulldogs lost to the Dockers at Subiaco in the final match of the regular season—West Coast's head-to-head odds of $1.21 look generous.

Friday night sees the most anticipated match of the round with long-time rivals Geelong and Hawthorn facing off in a qualifying final in front of an expected crowd of 90,000-plus at the Melbourne Cricket Ground. Since the Hawks knocked off the Cats in the 2008 Grand Final, these two have played 18 times with 10 of the matches decided by 10 points or fewer. Geelong won the first 11, Hawthorn five in a row before the Cats won their first-round encounter this year.

History awaits the Hawks, who are looking to become just the second team in the League's 120-year history to win four straight premierships, but the Cats are their immediate focus. Percentage was all that separated them on the ladder, but the bookmakers have the Cats as $1.64 favorites and conceding the Hawks a 6.5-point start. The Hawks are $2.30.

Saturday afternoon looms as the biggest match in AFL history in Sydney with the two Sydney teams, the Swans and the GWS Giants, facing off for the first time in a final. On face value, this is a battle between the established powerhouse (Swans) and the young challengers (GWS), but a look at the respective teams reveals the Swans actually have a younger team.

It is a massive credit to Sydney that they have been able to complement their big-name signings and stars by developing young talent, and based on this and their excellent season to date they are deserved premiership favorites.

The Swans are $1.42 favorites for this match, conceding a 15.5-point start, but when you consider this game is to be played at ANZ Stadium, where the they haven't played since losing a final last year, and that their worst loss of the season came when the Giants beat them in Round 12 up the road at Spotless Stadium, the $2.95 for the Giants may prove the best value of the weekend.

The big question for the Giants is that this is their first-ever final, although they boast several players with finals experience.

Adelaide cost themselves dearly with their slip-up against West Coast and instead of playing a qualifying final at home as one of the premiership favorites, they find themselves in an elimination battle against North Melbourne at Adelaide Oval on Saturday night.

By the time this match kicks off, the Crows would have had 15 days to think about it, and they are the shortest-priced favorite of the weekend, at $1.18, to bounce back. The Crows won 12 out of 13 before that loss to the Eagles and if they get back to that form, they will be impossible to beat.

In contrast, it's been three months since we've seen the best of the Kangaroos, who fell into the finals on percentage only on the back of four straight losses. The botched announcement of Brent Harvey's retirement is symptomatic of a side whose title aspirations were spent by July. The $5 on them represents possibly the poorest value all week and the 32.5-point line looks generous in their favor considering Adelaide's love of putting teams to the sword when they are in front.