Preview and Predictions for the 2016 BMW Championship
BMW Championship. Third week of the FedEx Cup playoffs. Rory McIlroy has finally made it into the featured image for P&P, thanks to his come-from-behind W at the Deutsche Bank Championship.
This week, 69 professionals (Henrik Stenson is sitting the tournament out to rest his knee) head to what was once a cornfield outside Indiana. Crooked Stick plays host to the BMW for the first time since 2012.
Fantasy golf analytics and analysis gurus GolfStrat have identified approach play from 100 to 200-plus yards as critical at Crooked Stick this week, with driving distance having some correlation with high finishes as well.
Who's in form and well suited to win at the course where John Daly first burst onto the scene at the 1991 PGA Championship?
Click through for our full preview and predicted winner.
Tournament Information
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Defending Champion: Jason Day
Where: Crooked Stick Golf Club, 7,516 yards, par 72
What
Total Purse: $8,500,000
Winning Share: $1,530,000
FedEx Points to Winner: 2,000
When
Thursday-Friday, 3-7 p.m. ET (Golf Channel).
Saturday, noon-3:30 p.m. (NBC), 3:30-6 p.m. (GC)
Sunday, noon-2 p.m. (GC), 2-6 p.m. (NBC)
Biggest Storylines
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Rory McIlroy, who won the 2012 BMW Championship at Crooked Stick, also won the Deutsche Bank Championship the week prior that year. Will history repeat itself?
As it has been throughout the playoffs, FedEx Cup points standing positioning is a key storyline this week. And as this is the final playoff event before the cup-deciding Tour Championship, players will be particularly keen to work their way into the top 30 to earn a spot at East Lake. Those already firmly positioned among the 30 will jockey for position and a better mathematical shot at the cup and component $10 million annuity.
Patrick Reed, Jason Day and Dustin Johnson look to be headed for top-five spots in the standings, meaning they can win the cup outright without any help from other golfers. Which other golfers fill out this top five will be worth watching this week.
Also, U.S. Ryder Cup captain, Davis Love III will make three of his four captain's picks at the completion of the tournament. Bubba Watson, Rickie Fowler and J.B. Holmes in particular will be keen to impress.
Favorites
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Rory McIlroy: You could say several things about why Rory McIlroy is a favorite this week. We'll just say this: He won last week, and he won this tournament the last time it was contested at this course.
Dustin Johnson: A top-10 finisher at the Deutsche Bank, Dustin Johnson was also a top-10 finisher at the BMW in 2012. Third on tour in strokes gained from tee to green this season, DJ's tee-to-green prowess is undeniable.
Jason Day: His wife and children were in a car accident during the Deutsche Bank Championship, so a failure to crack the top 10 is entirely understandable. Day should do better at a course where driving is a bit less important (he's 76th on tour in strokes gained off the tee).
Other favorites: Jordan Spieth, Patrick Reed
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Dark Horses
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Emiliano Grillo: After something of a let down at the Deutsche Bank Championship where he tied for 33rd, look for Emiliano Grillo to rebound at Crooked Stick. Grillo tied for second at The Barclays prior to the Deutsche Bank and has been enjoying a summer of fine form.
Gary Woodland: 22nd on tour in strokes gained approaching the green, Gary Woodland is an adept iron player who should do well at a course that prizes the ability. A third-round 74 kept his Deutsche Bank Championship finish (tied for 15th) from being much better. He also tied for fourth at The Barclays prior to that. In other words: Recent form is good for the Kansas alum.
Other dark horses: Ryan Palmer, Ryan Moore, Kevin Chappell
Prediction
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Winner: Adam Scott
Let's try this again. Scotty was our predicted winner last week, and he came close, tying for fourth, four strokes behind Rory McIlroy.
Scott actually had a good week with the putter, finishing tied for 24th in strokes gained from putting (2.11). He was his usual steady self from tee to green, finishing sixth in the field in strokes gained from tee to green (6.14). Really, a few misadventures in the sand and some lackluster work around the green were all that kept the Australian off the podium.
With respect to course history: Scott finished sixth at Crooked Stick in 2012. And recent form: He's coming off top-five finishes in his last two starts.
And with iron play and approach shots critical this week, who better to back than the guy who leads the tour in strokes gained approaching the green?
Stats via PGATour.com and the PGA Tour Media Guide
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