Gennady Golovkin vs. Kell Brook: Preview and Prediction for Title Fight
IBF welterweight champion Kell Brook will move up two weight classes Saturday in London to challenge IBF, WBA and WBC middleweight champ Gennady Golovkin. This is the official U.K. debut of GGG's "Big Drama Show."
But Brook will be looking to play spoiler and a packed 02 Arena will be cheering every move he makes against the larger champion.
This might not be the fight either man's fans wanted for him heading into 2016. But it will still be one of the biggest bouts of the year.
Tale of the Tape
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| Per Boxrec | Gennady Golovkin | Kell Brook |
| Record: | 35-0, 32 KOs | 36-0, 25 KOs |
| Height: | 5'10" | 5'9" |
| Reach: | 70" | 69" |
| Weight: | 160 lbs | 160 lbs |
| Age: | 34 | 30 |
| Stance: | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Hometown: | Karaganda, Kazakhstan | Sheffield, Yorkshire |
| Rounds: | 155 | 179 |
Brook is from Northern England, but he will enjoy hometown status Saturday when he fights Golovkin in London. This will be the Kazak native's first professional fight in the United Kingdom.
Brook is moving up to 160 pounds after spending his entire career at welterweight. He has always been big, fighting at 147 pounds, but one of the major questions coming into this bout is how well he will handle a new division.
Main Storylines
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In the early 1940s, Jake LaMotta and Sugar Ray Robinson were the best middleweight and welterweight in the world, respectively. But the world champions avoided them.
So they fought each other, instead. Five of their six bouts together took place between 1942 and 1945.
The backstory for Govkin vs. Brook is somewhat similar. Since his U.S. debut in September 2012, Golovkin has developed into one of the sport's hottest fighters. He is riding a 22-fight KO streak that stretches back to November 2008.
Nobody denies that GGG is the top 160-pound fighter in the world. But aside from David Lemieux, no other top-five middleweight has been willing to face him.
Brook has a pretty good claim to top-dog status at 147 pounds. He captured the IBF welterweight belt with a brilliant performance against Shawn Porter in August 2014. But since then, he has been unable to land a fight with another elite 147-pound fighter.
Brook will unquestionably be the most talented opponent Golovkin has ever faced. But the big question is whether or not Brook will carry enough power with him up to 160 pounds to keep Golovkin honest. Golovkin has frequently walked through very good middleweight punchers.
Strengths
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Golovkin is a brutally effective offensive fighter. He is an expert at cutting of the ring and throws crisp, jarring combinations that batter opponents from tricky angles.
Golovkin's power is nearly matched by his chin. He has knocked opponents out while shaking off solid punches.
Brook is a highly skilled and athletic fighter. He uses the ring very well to fight brilliantly on the outside and has always had the strength at welterweight to get the best of action on the inside.
Brook's jab is a crisp, slicing punch. He uses it to set up a very good straight right hand. He is also fast enough to lead with the straight right to vary his attacks.
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Weaknesses
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Golovkin has used his chin and power to make up for the fact that he has not been especially hard to hit during his career. Against Brook, he will be facing an opponent who should be quick enough to score and get out of the way.
Brook has been a very big, strong welterweight, but now he is jumping two weight classes to face the most dangerous 160-pound fighter in the world.
The interesting thing is that Brook was the heavier man at last week's final pre-fight weigh-in. This kind of jump begs the question of whether or not he will still have his same speed at 160. Moving up two weight classes is always going to be a question mark heading into the bout.
Gennady Golovkin Will Win If...
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Do not expect to see a new game plan from Golovkin when he faces Brook in London this weekend. He has put together the greatest current knockout streak in the sport with the same approach: He comes forward, cuts off the ring and chops opponents down with punishing shots to the body and head.
Golovkin is hardly an unrefined slugger, of course. He is an outstanding technical boxer. He rarely throws a punch without moving into position for the next big punch.
The challenge with Brook will be handling the welterweight champion's speed advantage. Brook is quicker and has better footwork than anybody else Golovkin has ever faced.
Golovkin will need to stay patient and keep Brook in front of him, stalking instead of chasing.
Expect Golovkin to be willing to give away some rounds to Brook early, while he concentrates on simply landing good punches to Brook's torso. If he can bruise up and tenderize Brook's body, he will be able to slow him down and catch up to him in the second half of the fight.
Kell Brook Will Win If...
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It is natural to compare this fight between Brook and Golovkin to last spring's bout between Saul Alvarez and Amir Khan. But I think the comparison is imprecise.
Khan started his career at 135 pounds. He was visually much smaller than Canelo.
Brook has always fought at welterweight and never found it easy to make weight there. He will not look that much smaller than Golovkin in London this weekend.
If Brook retains the speed he had as a welterweight while fighting at 160 pounds, he is going to give GGG some real problems.
Brook is going to need to consistently get off first with his jab. He is going to need to pop two and three punches at a time into Golovkin's face, disrupting the middleweight champion's rhythm, while moving back out of range.
Brook is going to need to use the entire ring and continually change the terrain of the fight. When Golovkin gets close, he will need to grab a clinch and hope he is strong enough to hold his own in tight.
Prediction
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The closer this fight gets, the more I like it. It has a definite old-school vibe. It's a showdown between the best middleweight in the world and arguably the best welterweight. At this point, I would rather see Golovkin face a truly great welterweight than another marginal contender at 160 pounds.
I am also very interested to see how Brook handles this big jump in class. He has always looked like a welterweight destined to move up in weight.
I think Brook will surprise a lot of American fans and thrill his countrymen this weekend. He is going to look very good early and win the majority of rounds in the first half of the fight.
But I do not see him having the power to slow Golovkin down with his scoring. And even as he is winning rounds, Brook will not escape them unscathed. Golovkin will land heavy punches and gradually slow Brook down.
The second half of the fight is going to be a struggle for Brook. I think he will hang tough and show tremendous game. But Golovkin will score some heavy blows in the last third of the fight, to wrap up a hard-fought decision.
There is a chance that ending his KO streak could make it easier for Golovkin to land fights with top middleweights, such as Saul Alvarez, WBO champion Billy Joe Saunders or Daniel Jacobs.
But do not expect to see Brook at 147 pounds again. And if he remains in the middleweight division, and this is the close fight I expect, a rematch might be appropriate.
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