Ranking the Top Player of the Year Candidates in the Big East in 2016-17
With Villanova the clear favorite to win its fourth consecutive regular-season title, the Wildcats also have two of the four players most likely to be named 2016-17 Big East Player of the Year.
The Big East has come a long way since the big split during the 2013 offseason that left the conference a shell of its former self, and there are a ton of legitimate candidates for conference POY. Like Villanova, Xavier has a pair of studs in Trevon Bluiett and Edmond Sumner. Butler's Kelan Martin will likely lead the conference in scoring. And don't sleep on Creighton or Mo Watson Jr.
However, team success is one of the most important factors in conference POY projections, which puts Villanova in the driver's seat. To be named the conference's best player while on a middle-of-the-road team takes something unbelievably special. As such, most of the Big East's best candidates come from its projected top teams.
But that's the way it should be, isn't it? Teams are projected to do well when they have good players, so it only makes sense that the best teams would lay claim to the best players.
In addition to team projections, the following players are ranked in ascending order of how much of a negative impact it would have on the team if each one was suddenly unavailable for the 2016-17 season. Indispensable players on title contenders are the goal.
Honorable Mentions
1 of 10
Desi Rodriguez, Khadeen Carrington and Angel Delgado, Seton Hall
It's time to find out what the rest of Seton Hall's 2014 recruiting class can do. Isaiah Whitehead carried the Pirates last season, but not without a lot of help from these three guys. If he becomes more assertive on offense, Delgado is our favorite to eventually break into the Big East POY conversation.
Marcus Foster, Creighton
Though Mo Watson Jr. is likely going to be the more valuable member of Creighton's backcourt, big things are expected of the Bluejays this season thanks in part to the addition of Foster. If he has the type of year he had as a freshman at Kansas State, this team could be Final Four good.
Marcus LoVett, St. John's
LoVett is going to do some impressive things this season, but St. John's is going to finish too many games out of first place for it to matter.
Isaac Copeland, Georgetown
No one from the Hoyas stands out as an obvious POY candidate, but someone from this team will end up being an all-conference first-team guy in March. Maybe it's L.J. Peak. Perhaps it's one of the new guards (Rodney Pryor or Jonathan Mulmore). Our guess is Copeland becomes the man as a junior, but it's not a strong conviction.
Omari Spellman, Villanova
Will the big man even play? Questions of Spellman's eligibility started popping up two months ago, and CBS Sports' Jon Rothstein reported that head coach Jay Wright expects to have an answer by the end of September. Coincidentally, we said last month that Oct. 1 is the unofficial deadline for when Villanova will need to start seriously considering other options. Stay tuned to find out whether the Big East's only 5-star recruit will actually get to play this year.
9. Jalen Brunson, Villanova
2 of 10
2015-16 Stats: 9.6 PPG, 2.5 APG, 1.8 RPG, 38.3% 3PT
Jalen Brunson is about to become the most indispensable player for the reigning national champions. With Ryan Arcidiacono graduating, Brunson becomes the primary ball-handler and the first line of defense. He did a fine job alongside Arch in the dual-combo guard backcourt, but now it'll be Brunson and Phil Booth running the show with Brunson likely doing most of the heavy lifting.
But will the Big East media view the young point guard as the linchpin of this roster when seniors Kris Jenkins and Josh Hart are going to put up more points as the faces of the program?
If the 2015 5-star recruit is going to make a compelling case for most valuable Wildcat, it might have to come on the defensive end.
Brunson isn't going to put up Kris Dunn-like assist totals, and he would have to outshoot Jenkins by a drastic margin in order to be regarded as Villanova's best three-point weapon. A respectable amount of turnover-forcing defense would turn some heads, though.
According to KenPom.com, Villanova has been a top-25 defense for the past four years. Much of that can be accredited to the two-point defense anchored by Daniel Ochefu, but the Wildcats were also consistently above average in creating turnovers.
Brunson didn't make much of an impact in that area last year, but he was also primarily defending shooting guards, who typically don't commit many turnovers. Look for him to become more of a ball hawk this year while also getting a bit more assertive on the offensive end.
8. Rodney Bullock, Providence
3 of 10
2015-16 Stats: 11.4 PPG, 6.8 RPG, 1.3 BPG, 1.0 APG
Up until two years ago, Providence never produced a Big East Player of the Year. But after a 35-year drought, Dunn shared the 2015 award with Arcidiacono before winning it outright in 2016.
Could Rodney Bullock make it three in a row for the Friars?
Probably not, but if this team is going to amount to anything in 2016-17, he'll be the biggest reason why.
With Dunn and Ben Bentil declaring for the NBA draft and Junior Lomomba transferring to Western Kentucky, Providence only brings back three of its primary six players from last season. And of that trio, Bullock is clearly the most valuable.
Moreover, he's the only big man on the roster who has proved anything. Indiana/JUCO transfer Emmitt Holt hasn't shown much thus far in his career, and only time will tell whether 6'7" freshman Alpha Diallo will live up to his billing as a 4-star small forward. Until further notice, Bullock is the singular go-to guy in this frontcourt.
But entering the 2015-16 season with only one sure thing taller than 6'3" worked out pretty well for the Friars, as Bentil exploded from a freshman who averaged 11.8 points per 40 minutes into a sophomore who more than doubled that number (24.6).
That isn't meant to suggest Bullock will necessarily make a similar leap, but there are an awful lot of touches up for grabs, with which he could put up impressive numbers.
.png?w=256 "NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament Championship")
7. Luke Fischer, Marquette
4 of 10
2015-16 Stats: 12.1 PPG, 6.2 RPG, 1.4 BPG, 1.0 APG
Whether Luke Fischer is one of the best players in the Big East is open for debate. He has posted solid numbers each of the past two seasons, but you certainly won't find his name on any national leaderboards.
However, there's not a player in this conference who is more important to his team than Fischer is to Marquette.
Head coach Steve Wojciechowski's roster is loaded with quality guards and wing forwards. The Golden Eagles didn't lose any of their backcourt players from last season while adding USC transfer Katin Reinhardt, UNC-Asheville transfer Andrew Rowsey and a trio of 4-star recruits who are 6'7" or shorter. All told, there will be three point guards, two shooting guards and five small forwards vying for playing time.
But unless you're expecting a breakout year from Matt Heldt—a 6'10" center who finished his freshman season with 13 points and 17 rebounds—there's only one big man worth mentioning on this team.
Fischer and Henry Ellenson made a formidable one-two frontcourt punch last season, but it's just going to be the Fischer Show in 2016-17. An efficient scorer and a proficient offensive rebounder, he could be headed for a huge senior season. Or at least Marquette had better hope so, or it's going to get demolished in the paint on a regular basis.
6. Edmond Sumner, Xavier
5 of 10
2015-16 Stats: 11.0 PPG, 3.6 APG, 3.4 RPG, 1.3 SPG
There's an inverse relationship between Myles Davis' legal troubles and Edmond Sumner's value to Xavier. The less it looks like Davis will be able to play, the more likely it becomes that Sumner wins Big East POY. And with the team announcing last week that Davis is suspended indefinitely, you might want to buy stock in Sumner while you still can.
A 6'6" point guard with average range, active hands on defense and a propensity for getting to the free-throw line, Sumner's game is similar to the one Andrew Harrison had at Kentucky a couple of years ago—except for the part where Sumner is going to deliver at least two highlight-reel dunks per month.
As such, he's most valuable with the ball in his hands. But it was Davis who led the team in assists and primarily handled the ball last year while Sumner kind of floated around between point guard, shooting guard and small forward. Lacking a defined role, his outputs were sporadic, often sandwiching MVP-type performances in between dreadful ones.
If Davis ends up not playing this season, it would be bad news for Xavier on the whole, but it might help Sumner blossom into an NBA-ready star. Either way, look for Sumner to have the ball more often in what should be a big year for him.
5. Kelan Martin, Butler
6 of 10
2015-16 Stats: 15.7 PPG, 6.8 RPG, 1.1 APG, 37.7% 3PT
Even with Kellen Dunham and Roosevelt Jones accounting for 22.2 field-goal attempts per game, Kelan Martin managed to rank seventh in the Big East in points per game.
Now that Dunham, Jones and each of the six guys who finished ahead of Martin are gone, he becomes the clear favorite to lead the Big East in scoring this year.
But will all those points be enough to keep Butler relevant this year?
Martin will have some new help from George Washington transfer Kethan Savage and Memphis transfer Avery Woodson, but it's going to be difficult for this team to replace all the value that Dunham and Jones brought to the table over the past several years. Even if the added players hit the ground running, guys like Tyler Lewis and Tyler Wideman will need to make a bit of a leap this year if the Bulldogs expect to make the NCAA tournament.
Fortunately, they don't need to win the Big East for Martin to be named POY. Providence finished in a tie for fourth place last season, and that was enough for Dunn to win the honor. However, Dunn was destined to be a lottery pick and was a standout player on both ends of the court. It might take more than a fourth-place finish for the conference's best volume scorer to be named its top player.
4. Kris Jenkins, Villanova
7 of 10
2015-16 Stats: 13.6 PPG, 3.9 RPG, 2.2 APG, 38.6% 3PT
As has been the case since the moment he hit the championship-winning three-pointer, figuring out where to rank Kris Jenkins proved to be a conundrum.
Long before the triple heard around the world, Jenkins' transformation into a high-usage, more assertive weapon was a big part of what made the Wildcats a legitimate title contender. One year ago, it was unclear who would slide into the starting rotation to replace JayVaughn Pinkston. Now we're talking about Jenkins as one of the most valuable players in the country.
But it's hard to be named the conference POY when one isn't even the most important player on his own team, and in most metrics other than three-point shooting, Josh Hart was better than Jenkins.
Assuming we can agree that Hart is Villanova's most likely candidate for the award, where does its second-best option rank in comparison to everyone else's best option?
Heck, Jenkins wasn't even listed as an honorable mention for the All-Big East Team this past March. Was what he accomplished in the NCAA tournament really enough to catapult him to second-best player in the conference?
It all depends on who you ask. Jenkins should be a preseason All-Big East first-team selection, though, so it would be irresponsible to rank him much lower than this.
3. Mo Watson Jr., Creighton
8 of 10
2015-16 Stats: 14.1 PPG, 6.5 APG, 3.4 RPG, 1.0 SPG
When there's an obvious most valuable player on a team that has a breakout season, that player tends to get some votes.
Two years ago, West Virginia's Juwan Staten and Utah's Delon Wright were in the conversation in their respective conferences. Last year, Oregon State's Gary Payton II and Clemson's Jaron Blossomgame were fringe candidates who would've fared better had their teams won just one or two more games.
This year, Mo Watson Jr. is going to be one of those players, as he may well be the leader in both points and assists for a Creighton team that should open the season either in or just outside the AP Top 25.
In Watson's first season with Creighton, he wasn't nearly the turnover-forcing machine that he was in his two seasons at Boston University. But he was every bit the scorer, passer and offensive architect that he used to be.
With Watson running the show, Creighton's offense operated at a drastically higher tempo than any of Greg McDermott's previous Bluejays squads. While the 30-second shot clock helped boost the average national tempo from 64.8 possessions per game to 69.0, Creighton went from 62.8 to 71.0—a full 4.0 swing above the national average.
And with Marcus Foster joining Watson in the backcourt this year, the senior point guard will have even more weapons to play with. Creighton's offensive efficiency won't exactly stack up with what it was doing in Doug McDermott's final three seasons, but this team should be much more of a force than it has been the past two years.
2. Trevon Bluiett, Xavier
9 of 10
2015-16 Stats: 15.1 PPG, 6.1 RPG, 2.2 APG, 39.8% 3PT
Neither of the players in our top two put up numbers that blow our minds. Nor would we bet on either of them playing more than 100 games in the NBA in their respective careers. But they're both team leaders and well-rounded players who end up providing more value than any statistical category would have you believe.
Trevon Bluiett ranked ninth in the Big East last year in points per game, 15th in rebounds per game and 18th in assists per game. He's a good three-point shooter, but he wasn't the best. Even his PER, win shares and box plus/minus weren't anything special. And according to KenPom, he didn't rank in the top 250 in the nation in a single category last year.
Yet, the 6'6" stretch 4 was the most important player on a Xavier team that had its best season in school history, finishing higher in the AP poll than ever before.
Despite losing Jalen Reynolds, James Farr and Remy Abell, big things are once again expected of the Musketeers with Bluiett back for at least one more year.
Bluiett will likely account for more points and rebounds this season because of the absence of Reynolds and Farr, but don't expect monster numbers. He'll simply be the best player on the second-best team in the conference for a second straight year.
1. Josh Hart, Villanova
10 of 10
2015-16 Stats: 15.5 PPG, 6.8 RPG, 1.9 APG, 1.2 SPG, 35.7% 3PT
College basketball commentators will occasionally declare that a player had a "quiet" 12-18 points in a game, which essentially means they didn't even realize he was having a good night until they looked at the box score.
That's pretty much Josh Hart's entire career at Villanova.
Until the Wildcats were on the precipice of their first national championship since 1985, the national media seemed to not even realize how valuable Hart is. He finished the season ranked No. 5 in the KenPom POY standings, but compared to the attention given to top-four finishers Brice Johnson, Malcolm Brogdon, Buddy Hield and Denzel Valentine, Hart might as well have been playing in a different country.
But head coach Jay Wright knew long ago that he had something special in Hart.
"He has proven to be exactly what we wanted him to be," Wright told Bleacher Report in February of Hart's freshman year. "He is in on every play. He is one of our best rebounders, one of our best defenders and one of our best slashers."
Those are the kind of details you don't always notice if you aren't looking for them, but if you specifically key in on Hart when you watch Villanova play, it's hard not to be impressed by all the little things he does. And now he's the senior leader of the overwhelming favorite to win the Big East and one of the top candidates to win the national championship.
Don't expect him to put up the scoring totals that Duke's Grayson Allen did last season, but among the nation's non-freshmen, Hart and Allen will enter the season as the top two contenders for the Wooden Award.
Stats are courtesy of KenPom.com or Sports-Reference.com, and recruiting information is courtesy of 247Sports, unless noted otherwise.
Kerry Miller covers college basketball for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @kerrancejames.
.png?w=480 "NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament Championship")
.jpg?w=600 "Colts Release Kenny Moore")
