Fantasy Football Long-Term Forecast: Matt Camp's Week 5 Futures Report
Depth is important for both NFL and fantasy football rosters.
Even though just four weeks have gone by, teams are testing that depth due to yet another season of rampant injuries. Ask the San Diego Chargers how important depth is when you lose major contributors at wide receiver (Keenan Allen), running back (Danny Woodhead) and cornerback (Jason Verrett). That’s opened the door for others, such as Tyrell Williams and Dontrelle Inman, which in turn, makes them fantasy-relevant.
With injuries piling up and bye weeks eliminating important pieces of your fantasy roster, you may be reaching deep to fill out your starting lineup this week. That’s why starting this week, I’ll include a late-week waiver wire of under-the-radar players who are still widely available and could contribute immediately.
Of course, I’ll keep checking in on the first- and second-year players who are making an impact right now or those who may be able to help you later this season. Young players who may not have been on the fantasy radar when the season began could be the key to your next fantasy championship. Maybe an injury has put someone into the fantasy spotlight such as DeAndre Washington in Oakland.
Under-the-Radar Waiver-Wire Adds
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Because it’s late in the week, you’re probably looking at slim pickings on the waiver wire. I already covered the top adds earlier in the week, but with the news and injury information we’ve received since, here are a few useful players you can still get to help you this weekend.
Jalen Richard, RB, OAK
Percent Owned: ESPN – 10.6, Yahoo - 11
The Raiders may be without Latavius Murray (turf toe) Sunday against the Chargers, so who will pick up the slack? The popular choice is DeAndre Washington, but Richard could also be in the mix. According to Paul Gutierrez of ESPN.com, the two will split the load. So why is Richard available in almost 90 percent of fantasy leagues?
Richard has outsnapped Washington in two of the last three games, including Week 4 at 24 percent to Washington’s 16 percent. The two are fairly close in rushing production with Washington at 147 yards on 23 carries (6.4 yards per carry) and Richard at 144 yards on 17 carries (8.5 YPC) including a 75-yard TD. Washington’s late-game fumble in Week 4 nearly cost Oakland the game.
Their receiving numbers are also pretty even. Washington has six receptions for 37 yards (six targets) to Richard’s five receptions for 39 yards (seven targets).
Even if Washington starts, Richard should have some value against the Chargers since they’ve allowed the third-most fantasy points to running backs this season. Oakland has used multiple backs with success all season, so it shouldn’t stop now.
Bobby Rainey, RB, NYG
Percent Owned: ESPN – 2.7, Yahoo – 4
I included Rainey in our deep sleepers segment in the Week 4 edition of Sunday Fantasy Live as someone who could give you 10 points in a points-per-reception format with Rashad Jennings (thumb) likely out. Well, Jennings was out, and Rainey came through with seven receptions for 43 yards (nine targets) and four carries for 22 yards to total 13.5 fantasy points.
Jennings’ status is still up in the air for Sunday’s game against the Packers, and even if he does play, Rainey could be a factor as the team’s primary pass-catcher out of the backfield. You can almost definitely snatch him up right now.
Zach Zenner, RB, DET
Percent Owned: ESPN - 0.7, Yahoo – 1
This is reaching a little deeper, but it’s also using some logic. The Lions haven’t had running back Dwayne Washington at practice this week because of a sprained knee and sprained foot. He went down after playing just 11 snaps last week, and the Lions stubbornly went back to Theo Riddick as their lead back.
Riddick carried 11 times for 31 yards (2.8 YPC) one week after carrying nine times for 10 yards (0.9 YPC). Zenner didn’t get many chances but managed to pick up 12 yards on three carries and 22 yards on his only reception. For some reason, the Lions haven’t figured out that Riddick isn’t the answer to their woes in the run game. He’s a great receiver but shouldn’t be doing much more than that.
Zenner (222 lbs) gives the Lions some bulk that they don’t have with Riddick (201 lbs). I know the matchup against the Eagles is rough (they've allowed the second-fewest fantasy points to running backs), but logic says Zenner should play a bigger role this week from the start if Washington cannot play.
According to Justin Rogers of the Detroit News, head coach Jim Caldwell said he’d like to get Zenner the ball more. Zenner could be good for a short touchdown and get enough volume to justifying being a deep reach.
Brice Butler, WR, DAL
Percent Owned: ESPN – 1.1, Yahoo - 9
Before last week, Butler had just one reception for 16 yards on four targets and was on the field for no more than 40 percent of the snaps in any of the first three games. With Dez Bryant nursing a knee injury, Butler’s Week 4 snap total jumped to 78 percent, and he came through with five receptions for 41 yards and a touchdown on nine targets.
According to Ian Rapoport of NFL Network, Bryant is expected to sit out Week 5, so Butler should be in for an increased role once again when the Cowboys host the Bengals. The opponent is noteworthy because the Bengals allowed the 12th-most fantasy points to wide receivers in the first four weeks, but they’ve been a good run defense, so Dallas may need to go to the air more if Cincinnati bottles up Ezekiel Elliott.
Cordarrelle Patterson, WR, MIN
Percent Owned: ESPN - 0.5, Yahoo - 1
This is reaching real deep, so consider Patterson only if you’re desperate and looking for upside. He has been a fantasy disappointment for most of his career and has been off the fantasy radar for years. He popped back up last week with five receptions for 38 yards on six targets. That catch total was equal to that of wide receiver Stefon Diggs and tight end Kyle Rudolph.
Patterson is the team’s primary kick returner but hadn’t played more than 9 percent of the offensive snaps before last week. That number jumped to 48 percent in Week 4, which put him behind Diggs (99 percent) and Adam Thielen (52 percent) at wide receiver.
The Vikings have failed to integrate Patterson into the offense in recent years, so any signs of life are welcome. Other than Diggs and Rudolph, the team doesn’t have any real threats in the passing game, so the door is open for Patterson to carve out a consistent role for the first time since his rookie year. Minnesota will need to get creative against a Texans defense that’s held wide receivers to the third-fewest fantasy points.
Quarterbacks
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Clear Starting Options
Carson Wentz, PHI
If you expected Wentz to be nothing more than a game manager, you should be happy to be wrong, especially if you’re a fantasy player. He’s averaging 34 pass attempts per game and has completed nearly 65 percent of them.
Wentz passed a big test against the Steelers in Week 3. He threw for 301 yards and two touchdowns on 23-of-31 passing in a dominant victory. After four weeks, Wentz is a top-11 fantasy QB based on scoring average, per Fantasy Pros. He should have a great chance to keep it going this weekend with tight end Zach Ertz (rib) back in the fold with a great matchup against the Lions.
Short-Term Fill-Ins/Streamers
Trevor Siemian/Paxton Lynch, DEN
It wasn’t planned, but the Broncos turned to Lynch much quicker than they anticipated in Week 4. Siemian suffered a sprained AC joint in his non-throwing shoulder toward the end of the first half, so Lynch had to take over the rest of the way.
Lynch completed 14 of 23 passes for 170 yards and a touchdown in the win over the Buccaneers. He showed a willingness to make tough throws, but he also made some bad decisions, although that’s understandable for a rookie who was coming off the bench cold to make his NFL debut.
Siemian has done limited work in practice this week, so he still has a chance to play Sunday against the visiting Falcons. If Lynch goes, it wouldn’t be a bad matchup to make his first NFL start, as the Falcons have allowed the most fantasy points and touchdowns to QBs this season.
Dak Prescott, DAL
There’s been nothing flashy about Prescott this season, and that’s not a bad thing. He hasn’t committed a turnover in 131 attempts and has completed nearly 68 percent of his passes for 1,012 yards and three touchdowns. He’s run just enough to boost his fantasy value a bit with 12 carries for 57 yards and a couple of scores.
According to ESPN.com's Todd Archer, the team is looking at Week 8 for Tony Romo’s return after an MRI “showed encouraging signs.” The Cowboys are 3-1 and have won their last three with Prescott at the helm.
He’ll get some tougher tests in coming weeks including the Bengals on Sunday and a trip to Green Bay next Sunday night before the Week 7 bye. After four weeks, Prescott is tied with Carson Wentz for the 11th-highest scoring average at the position, per Fantasy Pros. He’s been solid in both fantasy and reality, so the team could have a difficult decision coming soon.
Potential Contributors Later in the Season
None of note
Long-Term Projects/Not Ready for 2016
Jared Goff, LA
Goff is the primary backup to Case Keenum, and the Rams have won three straight, so unless there’s a major shift or an injury, Goff isn’t coming off the sidelines.
Jimmy Garoppolo, NE
The Patriots didn’t have Garoppolo for Week 4 due to his shoulder injury, and now his (planned) work as a starter has come to an end with the Week 5 return of Tom Brady. Garoppolo showed he’s a capable backup who can cover the team for the short term.
Running Backs
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Jordan Howard, CHI
Howard got his big chance to start in Week 4 and didn’t disappoint. The rookie carried 23 times for 111 yards (4.8 yards per carry) and pitched in three receptions for 21 yards on four targets. The game didn’t flow as expected (with the Lions dominating with their offense), so Howard had a busier day than projected as a runner and showed he could handle it.
Even though John Fox has used committees almost all the time during his career, he gave Howard a big compliment by saying he’s “outstanding” and that they team will “ride him pretty good moving forward,” per Rich Campbell of the Chicago Tribune.
Howard has a great chance to build on last week’s performance against the Colts on Sunday. Indianapolis allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to running backs in the first four weeks and could be vulnerable after playing in London last weekend.
DeAndre Washington/Jalen Richard, OAK
I’ve already written about both these players in both my early-week waiver-wire adds and in the late-week, under-the-radar players that you read earlier in this article, so there won’t be much to add.
Washington will likely be the lead back if Latavius Murray (toe) can’t play. He’s been almost even with Richard in every statistical category, so an even split seems likely, especially since the Raiders have used multiple backs all season. Both players have fantasy value because the matchup comes against the Chargers, which have the third-worst defense against running backs.
Desperation Plays/Short-Term Fill-Ins
Kenneth Dixon, BAL
Dixon went through limited practice last week but has moved to full practice this week in preparation for his NFL debut Sunday against the Redskins. Even though head coach John Harbaugh told Jamison Hensley of ESPN.com “who gets what carries” is unpredictable, Hensley thinks Dixon will be brought along slowly and see his carries increase in the coming weeks.
The Ravens have that luxury because Terrance West ran for 113 yards and a touchdown on 21 carries (5.4 yards per carry) in last week’s loss to the Raiders. Prior to that, West had just 33 carries for 119 yards (3.6 YPC). That means he still has to prove he’s more than a one-week wonder, and while he’s doing that, he can lead the way while Dixon gets his feet wet. At some point, Dixon should be the lead back, so grab him if he’s out there.
Cameron Artis-Payne, CAR
So far, Artis-Payne has been a big disappointment as one of the replacements for Jonathan Stewart. The Falcons blew out the Panthers last week, so Artis-Payne couldn’t get anything going with just six carries for 12 yards. Meanwhile, Fozzy Whittaker stayed in the mix despite the lopsided score with nine receptions for 86 yards on nine targets.
Even when Stewart returns, Whittaker could keep an active role as a receiver, so unlike Artis-Payne, Whittaker’s presences could be helpful in the short term and long term.
Jay Ajayi/Kenyan Drake, MIA
It’s an ugly committee in Miami, but for how much longer? Over the last two games, no Dolphins running back has carried more than nine times in a game. In Week 3, Kenyan Drake led the way with nine carries for 37 yards. Jay Ajayi was the man in Week 4 with six carries for 33 yards despite Damian Williams getting the call to start. Williams had nine yards on two carries and a reception for six yards.
Snap counts tell you just how splintered everything is in this backfield. Drake led the way with 39 percent in Week 3, and Ajayi jumped over him with 31 percent last week.
According to Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald, head coach Adam Gase said the four-headed backfield “was some bad coaching by me” and that the team wants to “target a couple of guys a game or one guy a game and let that guy get the flow of it.”
It’s tough to trust anyone in this backfield until further notice, and it won’t get any easier when Arian Foster (groin, hamstring) returns to action. He’s gone through limited practice this week but isn’t a lock to play.
Potential Contributors Later in the Season
Dwayne Washington, DET
Washington sprained both his foot and his ankle in the Week 4 loss to the Bears, so his status doesn’t look good for Week 5, and that might give you enough reason to cut him loose if you need the roster spot. The Lions still aren’t getting anything with Theo Riddick leading the way, so we could see more Zach Zenner this week.
Devontae Booker, DEN
Even though he’s the backup to C.J. Anderson, Booker has done enough to prove he could be a capable replacement if Anderson were to go down. Booker’s snaps continued to rise once again, as he hit a new high for 25 percent in Week 4. He has 92 rushing yards on 23 carries and two receptions for 22 receiving yards.
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Wide Receivers
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Will Fuller, HOU
Fuller is having a fantastic rookie season, but is it coming at the expense of DeAndre Hopkins? In Week 4, Fuller posted seven receptions for 81 yards and a touchdown on nine targets and added a 67-yard punt return for a score. Hopkins had just a single reception for four yards on six targets. Hopkins saw a lot of double-teaming from the Titans, but it’s been more than just one game.
On the season, Fuller has more targets (34-33), more receptions (19-17), more yards (323-227) and more yards per catch (17-13.4) than Hopkins. Both have a pair of offensive touchdowns, but while Fuller has three games of at least 80 yards, Hopkins has just one and was held under 60 yards the other three times.
While the Texans need to find ways to get Hopkins the ball more, Fuller continues to reap the benefits of sharing the field with one of the most talented wideouts in the league.
Jamison Crowder, WAS
Crowder was one of the hotter waiver-wire pickups last week going into a great matchup with the Browns. His two-catch, 21-yard performance was a major disappointment, as the Redskins attempted just 27 passes and ran the ball 26 times in their most balanced effort this season.
Tight end Jordan Reed is the team’s best receiver and led the way with 35 targets. Crowder is second with 28 targets, but Pierre Garcon and DeSean Jackson aren’t far behind with 25 apiece.
A bigger concern may be Crowder’s snaps. His percentage has dropped every week, going from 75 percent in Week 1 to just 54 percent last week. Meanwhile, Garcon started the season at 63 percent and has played at least 70 percent the last two games.
Washington’s offense has somewhat of an up-and-down nature, so Crowder’s inconsistency may continue, especially if the team makes a bigger commitment to the run. That could lead to fewer three-wide receiver sets, which would explain the downtick in snaps for Crowder.
Michael Thomas, NO
With Willie Snead (toe) back in the lineup last week after missing Week 3, expectations were down a bit for Thomas. He still managed to come through with four receptions for 44 yards and a touchdown on nine targets against the Saints. Snead caught his only target for 23 yards and was limited to 68 percent of the snaps, while Thomas led all Saints receivers at 76 percent.
Thomas leads the team in receptions (21) and is second in targets (31) to Brandin Cooks (32). Staying involved in an offense that’s already had 11 different players catch a pass isn’t easy, but Thomas is proving it is possible, even for a rookie.
DeVante Parker, MIA
Following strong performances in Week 2 (eight receptions, 106 yards, 13 targets) and Week 3 (three receptions, 51 yards, one TD, six targets), Parker was starting to gain some trust in fantasy circles. However, he and the Dolphins struggled against the Bengals in Week 4. He wound up with just a pair of catches for 20 yards on three targets.
Miami’s offensive line allowed Ryan Tannehill to take five sacks, although he contributed to some of those. Too much of Miami’s fantasy production has come when trailing, and that garbage-time production can be tough to trust. Until the Dolphins produce in all kinds of game flow on a consistent basis, you have to be careful with when you start Parker.
Sammie Coates, PIT
If you can become the No. 2 wide receiver in one of the best offenses in the league, fantasy players will fight to get you. We may be seeing that with Coates after he had arguably his best game to date in Week 4. Coates hauled in six of his eight targets for 79 yards and was on the field for 54 percent of the snaps, the second-most of the team’s wideouts behind Antonio Brown.
Other than Brown, the only Pittsburgh wide receivers with at least two receptions in a game are Coates and Eli Rogers, and Rogers is nursing a turf toe injury that will keep him out for the second straight game. With Rogers out and Markus Wheaton struggling to make any kind of impact, Coates has a great chance to establish himself as a consistent threat in this great offense.
Tyrell Williams, SD
Much like Parker, Williams seemed to be turning into a reliable fantasy option until Week 4 happened and reality smacked everyone in the head. Both Williams and Travis Benjamin, the team’s leading receivers coming into the week, took a backseat to Dontrelle Inman, who had seven receptions for 120 yards and a 57-yard TD on 11 targets.
Williams had caught four of his seven targets for 48 yards. He’s played the second-most snaps of Chargers receivers at 213, but Inman leads the way at 238, and his snap percentage has risen in each game. It just shows that no one has a stranglehold on any top role in this offense, so it will be a group effort to replace the targets of injured players such as Keenan Allen and Danny Woodhead.
Desperation Plays/Short-Term Fill-Ins
Tajae Sharpe, TEN
Sharpe has started every game this season, but his numbers have slipped each week. He backed up his preseason hype with seven receptions for 76 yards on 11 targets in Week 1. He’s had seven targets in each of the last three games since then but posted only nine receptions for 96 yards over that span.
Other than DeMarco Murray, the Titans haven’t had a reliable fantasy starter each week, although tight end Delanie Walker will try to get into that category this week in Miami. Sharpe will also try to claw his way back to relevance against a Dolphins defense that gives up the fourth-most fantasy points to wide receivers.
Tyler Boyd, CIN
Boyd hasn’t found a regular role in the Bengals offense. He caught just one of three targets for 10 yards in Week 4 and has 12 receptions for 130 yards on 18 targets on the season. Even though tight end Tyler Eifert (ankle, back) isn’t back yet, you can’t call Boyd anything more than a stash on your roster, and that’s not even ideal.
Nelson Agholor, PHI
Agholor has just 11 receptions for 120 yards and a touchdown on the season. He likely wasn’t on many rosters before the Week 4 bye and should be kept off them until he shows he has legit fantasy value.
Potential Contributors Later in the Season
Corey Coleman, CLE
Coleman is recovering from the broken hand he suffered before Week 3, and when he returns in the next month or so, it likely will come in a big role. Josh Gordon won’t be coming back, and the only other big-time option in the wide receiver corps is Terrelle Pryor.
Josh Doctson, WAS
Doctson had to sit out the last two games and hasn’t practiced ahead of Week 5 because of ongoing problems with his Achilles. He doesn’t belong on redraft league rosters.
Breshad Perriman, BAL
While Steve Smith Sr. and Mike Wallace are clearly the top wideouts for Joe Flacco, Perriman is stuck in a rotational role. He hasn’t had more than five targets, three receptions or 35 yards in any game. He doesn’t belong on your roster.
Devin Funchess, CAR
If you were hoping for a jump in production from Funchess in his second season, you’re still waiting. He has five catches for 84 yards and a TD on 13 targets and had to leave Week 4's game against the Falcons because of a toe injury.
Long-Term Projects/Not Ready for 2016
Laquon Treadwell, MIN
Treadwell hasn’t recorded a target in four games and has played just six offensive snaps. He’s buried on the depth chart and probably out of your mind until next season.
Kevin White, CHI
The injury bug bit White in a big way yet again, and now his season is likely over. The Bears placed him on the injured reserve after a high-ankle sprain resulted in a fractured fibula, according to Jeff Dickerson of ESPN.com. So far, White has been a major bust as a 2015 first-round pick.
Tight Ends
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Hunter Henry, SD
Henry continues to laugh at the notion that rookie tight ends don’t make an impact. In last week’s loss to the Saints, he caught four of seven targets for 61 yards and a 20-yard TD. He has nine receptions for 133 yards on 12 targets in the last two games with Antonio Gates sidelined by a hamstring injury.
Gates returned to limited practice this week but is far from a lock to play. Even if he does go, can the Chargers afford to be sentimental and play Gates over Henry? If they want to win games (and save Mike McCoy’s job), Henry has to be their top tight end. You have to keep him on your roster and see how this situation pans out.
Desperation Plays/Short-Term Fill-Ins
Clive Walford, OAK
Walford has had almost no fantasy value so far, and a knee injury isn’t helping his cause. He’s topped three receptions just once this season and hasn’t hit 30 yards in three games. You might be better off with Clive Bixby on your team.
Jesse James, PIT
James has seven receptions for 54 yards and a TD on 11 targets in the last three games after posting five receptions for 31 yards on seven targets in the opener. With Le’Veon Bell back and Sammie Coates coming on, James just isn’t getting enough looks to be reliable for fantasy.
Potential Contributors Later in the Season
Austin Hooper, ATL
Hooper has shown flashes as a rookie, and that continued in Week 4. He caught his only target for a 42-yard TD. Hooper has just five targets on the season, but he caught them all for 140 yards. Because he’s playing behind a solid veteran in Jacob Tamme, Hooper would need a Tamme injury to find his way into a consistent role in the offense.
Snap counts courtesy of Pro Football Focus. Fantasy points courtesy of NFL.com unless otherwise noted.
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