Ranking the Top Player of the Year Candidates in the Big 12 in 2016-17
With Kansas the clear favorite to win its 13th consecutive Big 12 regular-season title, the Jayhawks also dominate the projected standings for 2016-17 Big 12 Player of the Year.
There are some excellent point guards from other Big 12 teams. Iowa State's Monte Morris, Oklahoma's Jordan Woodard and Oklahoma State's Jawun Evans stand out as players who could come to be viewed as the most important player in the league.
However, team success is one of the most important factors in conference POY projections, which puts Kansas in the driver's seat. To be named the conference's best player while on a middle-of-the-road team takes something unbelievably special. As such, most of the Big 12's best candidates come from its projected top teams.
But that's the way it should be, isn't it? Teams are projected to do well when they have good players, so it only makes sense that the best teams would lay claim to the best players.
In addition to team projections, the following players are ranked in ascending order of how much of a negative impact it would have on the team if each one was suddenly unavailable for the 2016-17 season. Indispensable players on title contenders are the goal.
Honorable Mentions
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Jevon Carter, West Virginia
Without Jaysean Paige, Devin Williams and Jonathan Holton, the onus falls on Jevon Carter to keep the Mountaineers near the top of the Big 12 standings for a third consecutive year. But even if he steers them to a top-three finish, will his numbers be impressive enough? Carter only averaged 9.5 points, 3.3 assists and 1.7 steals per game last season. He would need to nearly double those to get into the conversation.
Khadeem Lattin, Oklahoma
As with Carter, the concern with Khadeem Lattin is that the per-game numbers won't stack up with the high-volume scorers. He's a great asset on defense, blocking 2.1 shots per game last season. But he only paired that with 5.6 points and 5.3 rebounds per game. The absence of Ryan Spangler, Buddy Hield and Isaiah Cousins should force Lattin into more of a secondary scorer role, but necessity doesn't always lead to efficiency or dominance.
Jarrett Allen, Texas
Jarrett Allen is an incredible talent. He should finish second to Kansas' Josh Jackson in the Big 12 Freshman of the Year race. The big man's forte is shot-blocking, but that may be mitigated by playing in what's shaping up to be a guard-oriented conference. (Of last year's top 13 rebounders, only Texas Tech's Zach Smith and Kansas' Landen Lucas are coming back.)
If he gets a little bit stronger and develops more of a back-to-the-basket game, though, that would make him one of the most unstoppable players in the Big 12.
Carlton Bragg Jr. and Landen Lucas, Kansas
The Jayhawks are going to win the Big 12, likely by a comfortable margin. This makes Kansas the favorite to produce the Big 12 Player of the Year. But we've already got three Jayhawks in our top five and wanted to keep this thing from simply turning into a ranking of their best players in 2016-17.
Still, Carlton Bragg Jr. is likely headed for a breakout sophomore year, and Lucas' midseason, full-time insertion into last year's starting lineup is what transformed Kansas into the favorite to win the national championship. If your preseason All-Big 12 team is just Kansas' starting lineup, it's not crazy.
8. Jawun Evans, Oklahoma State
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2015-16 Stats (22 games): 12.9 PPG, 4.9 APG, 4.4 RPG, 1.1 SPG, 47.5 3P%
It didn't hurt Evans' case for Big 12 Freshman of the Year that there frankly weren't any good options last year—he was the only one to score at least 10 points per game—but it's a testament to his potential that he won the award while missing the final five weeks of the season.
Evans was one of just six freshmen in the last four years to average at least 12 points, four rebounds and four assists per game. The others were 2016 No. 1 overall pick Ben Simmons, 2015 No. 2 overall pick D'Angelo Russell, 2014 No. 6 overall pick Marcus Smart, 2016 first-round pick Dejounte Murray and one of the top candidates for best incoming transfer in the nation: Nigel Williams-Goss.
That's not a bad list to be on, but will the Cowboys win enough games for it to matter?
As we noted in last week's Big Ten POY projections, it's next to impossible to be named a conference Player of the Year while playing for a team that fails to finish near the top of the standings. The only player to do so from a team that finished outside the top four in 2015-16 was Howard's James Daniel, and that's only because he led the nation in scoring average.
But if Evans can steer Oklahoma State to the NCAA tournament (aka sixth place or better in the Big 12) after an ugly 12-20 season, he would have to at least get some votes for All-Big 12 first-team honors.
7. Kerwin Roach Jr., Texas
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2015-16 Stats: 7.5 PPG, 2.9 RPG, 1.2 APG
Kerwin Roach's freshman-year numbers weren't impressive, but there are a few implied asterisks attached to them.
The first asterisk is playing time, which is going to change in a big way. Isaiah Taylor and Javan Felix were the primary guards for the Longhorns, with Demarcus Holland and Kendal Yancy splitting duties as the third backcourt starter. But with three of those four players gone and Yancy barely touching the court for the final few weeks of the season, there are minutes aplenty for guys like Roach, Eric Davis Jr. and Andrew Jones.
The second asterisk is that Roach's season was a tale of two halves.
Through the first two months, Roach averaged 5.3 points, 2.2 rebounds and 0.7 steals per game. Even if we exclude the three games in which he didn't play enough minutes to record an O-rating, his average O-rating was a putrid 75.7.
Over the final nine weeks, though, Roach put up 9.7 points, 3.6 rebounds and 1.1 steals per game while playing just 3.4 more minutes on average. His average O-rating also skyrocketed to 119.5 thanks in part to three MVP performances.
It's hardly a coincidence that mid-January is when Texas began to turn a corner, picking up wins over West Virginia (twice), Oklahoma, Baylor and Vanderbilt while nearly winning road games against Kansas and Oklahoma. Once Roach started living up to his potential, the Longhorns were much tougher to beat.
If you prefer Allen in this spot, by all means. He should be fantastic. But if the Longhorns are going to finish second or third in the conference, it will be because Roach puts up solid offensive numbers while spearheading their defensive attack.
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6. Jordan Woodard, Oklahoma
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2015-16 Stats: 13.0 PPG, 3.4 APG, 3.0 RPG, 1.6 SPG, 45.5 3P%
Two things tend to happen when a four-pronged offense loses three of those prongs: The remaining player puts up better numbers, but the team gets significantly worse.
We found nine teams that had four players average at least 10 points per game in 2014-15 before losing three of them for the following year. (We also included Gonzaga, which lost Byron Wesley and Kevin Pangos and only got five games out of Przemek Karnowski.) The only exception to the above rule was Florida Gulf Coast, which somehow got better while getting even less production out of Julian DeBose.
Here's what the numbers looked like for the other nine:
| Player | Team | 2014-15 PPG | 2014-15 KP Rating | 2015-16 PPG | 2015-16 KP Rating |
| Jimmy Hall | Kent St. | 15.9 | 105 | 16.4 | 181 |
| Jeffery Moss | Murray St. | 11.2 | 51 | 14.2 | 162 |
| Pascal Siakam | New Mexico St. | 12.8 | 91 | 20.2 | 107 |
| Dante Holmes | NC Central | 10.4 | 98 | 15.5 | 296 |
| Cameron Michael | No. Colorado | 12.9 | 257 | 16.8 | 312 |
| Earvin Morris | UTEP | 11.0 | 99 | 13.4 | 215 |
| Ryan Bowie | UTSA | 13.0 | 206 | 18.0 | 339 |
| Tucker Haymond | W. Michigan | 11.8 | 171 | 15.9 | 183 |
| Kyle Wiltjer | Gonzaga | 16.8 | 7 | 20.4 | 18 |
Even including the DeBose phenomenon, the average remaining prong had an increased scoring average of 3.2 points per game while his team dropped 68.7 spots in the KenPom rankings.
Will Woodard and Oklahoma follow suit, with the individual jumping up to 16.2 PPG while the team drops to No. 75 in the KenPom rankings? Probably not. We would guess Woodard ends up closer to 17.5 PPG while Oklahoma slips into the 35-40 range, but it will be interesting to track.
Other noteworthy programs where this case study will be in play include Gonzaga (again), Syracuse, Connecticut, Northern Iowa, Columbia, Memphis, Stony Brook, Boise State and Mississippi State.
5. Devonte' Graham, Kansas
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2015-16 Stats: 11.3 PPG, 3.7 APG, 3.3 RPG, 1.4 SPG, 44.1 3P%
Step 1 in this whole process was deciding how to rank the many Kansas options before filling in the rest of the list around them. And even though Devonte' Graham appears at No. 5 in the rankings, he could just as easily have been No. 1.
Prior to the 2016 NCAA tournament, it was Graham who typically determined how well the Jayhawks would do. While Frank Mason III and Perry Ellis consistently put up solid numbers, Graham's stat line was a bit more temperamental. In the November loss to Michigan State, he had just four points on nine shots. In the January losses to West Virginia and Iowa State, he had a combined 14 points on 14 shots with no steals.
But when Graham posted an O-rating better than 100, the Jayhawks went 27-1. And when he recorded at least two steals, they were 16-0.
Basically, when Graham showed up, Kansas was nearly unbeatable; and he showed up for roughly three out of every four games.
The craziest part of that is he was probably only the fourth-most important weapon on the roster. In addition to Mason and Ellis, Wayne Selden Jr. got significantly more touches than Graham. That he was even able to average 11.3 points per game while taking just one out of every six Kansas shots while on the floor is a bit incredible.
Where will the three-point assassin and defensive wizard fall on this year's pecking order? That will depend on Bragg's involvement, but look for Graham's scoring average to increase to some degree in year No. 3.
4. Frank Mason III, Kansas
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2015-16 Stats: 12.9 PPG, 4.6 APG, 4.3 RPG, 1.3 SPG, 38.1 3P%
Mason's numbers have been eerily similar for the past two seasons. In both his sophomore and junior year, he averaged 33.5 minutes and 9.4 field-goal attempts per game. Meanwhile, the differences between his assists, rebounds, points and steals per game were 0.7, 0.4, 0.3 and 0.1, respectively.
Even his game-to-game numbers had a metronome-like consistency. Through the first 30 games of last season, Mason scored between 10 and 19 points 27 times and had 3-7 assists 25 times.
It's because of that consistent production that Mason has been so valuable for the Jayhawks, starting every game for the past two years.
But what we've learned about Mason's numbers is that they're only good enough for all-conference second team. That's where the Big 12 coaches voted him in 2015 and again in 2016.
Maybe he gets a little more respect this year just by virtue of being a senior. Perhaps he puts up better numbers, too, with Selden and Ellis out of the picture. That should be enough for him to climb up to first-team honors in 2017, but will it be enough for Big 12 POY?
Frankly, Mason's case in that department will likely have more to do with Jackson's numbers than his own.
If Jackson comes in and puts up Andrew Wiggins numbers, it's going to be hard to vote for Mason as best player in the conference when he isn't the best on his own team. If, instead, Jackson puts up Cliff Alexander or Cheick Diallo numbers while the Jayhawks still win the Big 12, Mason may well be the unanimous Big 12 POY.
3. Johnathan Motley, Baylor
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2015-16 Stats: 11.1 PPG, 5.1 RPG, 1.1 BPG, 0.9 APG
Johnathan Motley's situation at Baylor is almost a combination of what Woodard and Allen will be faced with this year.
On the Woodard side of things, Motley is clearly the alpha dog for the Bears with Rico Gathers, Taurean Prince and Lester Medford all graduating. He does still have Al Freeman and incoming transfers Manu Lecomte and Jo Acuil to help shoulder the load, but Motley ought to be Baylor's leading scorer and rebounder this season.
And for the Allen portion of the equation, Motley is a dominant big man in a conference otherwise relatively devoid of such entities. The only returning players who averaged at least 9.5 points, 5.0 rebounds and 0.6 blocks per game—hardly elite-level bars to set for a power forward or center—are Motley and Texas Tech's Smith. And Motley did it in 20.9 minutes per game.
Allen, Bragg and maybe Lattin will put up numbers at least that good this year, but even at that, the Big 12 isn't exactly brimming with unstoppable frontcourt presences.
Add those two pieces together, and you've got a 6'9" stud who is going to get a ton of touches in a conference that doesn't have many players who can contain him. Motley should be headed for a monster junior year.
2. Monte Morris, Iowa State
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2015-16 Stats: 13.8 PPG, 6.9 APG, 3.9 RPG, 1.8 SPG, 35.8 3P%
Gone are Georges Niang, Abdel Nader and Jameel McKay.
Long gone are DeAndre Kane, Melvin Ejim, Dustin Hogue and Bryce Dejean-Jones.
At long last, people will be forced to appreciate just how great Morris has been as the point guard of the Cyclones for the past three years.
In the past two-plus decades, there have only been three players to play multiple seasons with career averages of at least 6.0 points and 4.5 assists per game while recording fewer than 1.8 turnovers per game. They are Morris, Tyler Ulis and Fred VanVleet.
For as great as Morris has been, for some reason, he isn't usually mentioned on the same level as those other two guys. If Ulis was an inch or two taller, he probably would have been a lottery pick. And as a nation, we drooled uncontrollably over VanVleet for the majority of the past four seasons.
But look at how similar his numbers are to those of Morris:
VanVleet: 10.2 PPG, 4.5 APG, 3.3 RPG, 1.6 SPG, 1.5 ToPG, 38.6 3P%
Morris: 10.8 PPG, 5.2 APG, 3.3 RPG, 1.6 SPG, 1.2 ToPG, 38.3 3P%
Now consider that, according to ESPN's RPI metrics, Morris has faced an average strength of schedule rank of 18, while VanVleet got to rack up numbers against an average SOS rank of 113, and it's nearly impossible to comprehend the lack of respect for Morris.
Because they're replacing their entire frontcourt, not much is expected of the Cyclones this year—they'll probably make the NCAA tournament, but don't count on seeing them in the preseason Associated Press Top 25. If Morris can lead this roster to a sixth consecutive season with at least 23 wins and at least 10 Big 12 wins, it just might be enough for him to be named Big 12 POY.
1. Josh Jackson, Kansas
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2015-16 Stats: N/A (Incoming Freshman)
Freshmen have not fared well in the Big 12 player rankings in recent years. Not a single freshman was named to the All-Big 12 first, second or third team in 2016, and Texas' Myles Turner was the only freshman to get enough votes in 2015, finishing that year on the third team. Even Wiggins wasn't named the Big 12 POY in 2014, narrowly edged out by Iowa State's Melvin Ejim.
Heck, if Wiggins couldn't get it done, who can?
Perhaps Wiggins 2.0 is the man for the job.
Once Jackson decided he was going to Kansas, it was only a matter of time before the comparisons to Wiggins would be made. Both were rated by 247Sports as the best recruit in their respective classes. Both are tall, lanky wings with nearly incomprehensible athleticism. And both agreed to spend their one collegiate season at Kansas before a nearly inevitable spot as a top-five pick in the NBA draft.
However, Jackson's supporting cast is significantly better than the one Wiggins had.
In addition to Wiggins, Kansas had one heck of a recruiting class in 2013, picking up Joel Embiid, Selden, Brannen Greene, Conner Frankamp and some little-known 3-star point guard named Frank Mason. But that team had almost no veteran experience after losing all five of its leading scorers from the previous season. Sophomore Ellis and junior Naadir Tharpe were just about the entire list.
For Jackson, though, there will be plenty of other players to draw the opposition's focus.
Key in too heavily on the stud freshman, and either Mason, Graham, Lucas or Bragg will tear you to shreds. But leave a defender alone on an island against Jackson, and he'll beat that poor soul on a regular basis. It's like a torturous "Choose Your Own Adventure" book where all paths lead to a Jayhawk bucket.
Someone from Kansas is going to win Big 12 POY, and our bet is on the guy who will have both college and NBA fans drooling from day one.
Stats are courtesy of KenPom.com or Sports-Reference.com, and recruiting information is courtesy of 247Sports unless noted otherwise.
Kerry Miller covers college basketball for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @kerrancejames.
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