Ranking the Top Player of the Year Candidates in the Big Ten in 2016-17
The 2015-16 Big Ten college basketball Player of the Year race was a great one between Denzel Valentine, Jarrod Uthoff and Yogi Ferrell, and we should be headed for another three-way gem with Wisconsin's Nigel Hayes, Maryland's Melo Trimble and Indiana's Thomas Bryant each battling for the title.
As we'll address in a bit more detail on the following slide, team success is one of the most important factors in conference POY projections. To be named the conference's best player while on a middle-of-the-road team takes something unbelievably special. As such, most of the Big Ten's best candidates come from its projected top teams.
But that's the way it should be, isn't it? Teams are projected to do well when they have good players, so it only makes sense that the best teams would lay claim to the best players.
In addition to team projections, the following players are ranked in ascending order of how much of a negative impact it would have on the team if each one was suddenly unavailable for the 2016-17 season. Indispensable players on title contenders are the goal.
Honorable Mentions
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Star Players on Less Than Stellar Teams
Peter Jok, Iowa
Malcolm Hill, Illinois
Corey Sanders, Rutgers
You may well be looking at the Big Ten's top three scorers in 2016-17. But will they have enough support for it to matter in the Player of the Year race?
Team success is a massive portion of the POY equation. Of the 32 conference POYs in 2015-16, 15 played for the team that won the conference, 75 percent came from teams that finished first or second in the conference and only one went to a player whose team finished outside the top four—the MEAC's award went to James Daniel of Howard, who led the nation in scoring for a team that went 12-20.
If Jok, Hill or Sanders scores 9.0 more points per game than any other player in the Big Ten, then, sure, he could be named B1G POY. But it would take that type of Herculean effort to win the award as members of teams unlikely to contend for the conference title.
Players with Multiple Ranked Teammates
Bronson Koenig, Wisconsin
OG Anunoby, Indiana
Arguably the first step in becoming a conference POY is emerging as the most valuable player on your own team. Koenig and Anunoby could do that, but they each have a pair of teammates in our top eight who are considerably more likely to fill that role.
Pick a Buckeye, Ohio State
It's impossible to say with certainty who Ohio State's most valuable player will be. It had four regulars finish last season in a virtual tie for first place in win shares per 40 minutes, with each earning a ratio between 0.135-0.145. Marc Loving wasn't one of those four players, but he led the team in scoring and—as the only senior on the roster—is the Buckeyes' veteran leader.
But a top-four finish in the B1G is a possibility in what should be a bounce-back year for the Scarlet and Gray. If someone emerges as the clear star of the team in the process, he'll be in the mix for conference POY.
Zak Irvin, Michigan
Despite missing the season opener while recovering from back surgery, Irvin led the Wolverines in scoring while displaying some triple-double potential with 4.5 rebounds and 3.1 assists per game. This despite putting up dreadful efficiency numbers by shooting 29.8 percent from three-point range and committing as many turnovers as his first two seasons combined.
If Irvin can rediscover his freshman form (42.5 percent from downtown), he could put up monster numbers for a team that should flirt with a top-four finish.
8. James Blackmon Jr., Indiana
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2015-16 Stats (13 games): 15.8 PPG, 4.2 RPG, 1.7 APG, 1.2 SPG, 46.3 3P%
Those numbers look great, but we still don't know if James Blackmon Jr. can shoot against good teams.
The 33-point game against Alcorn State was fun, as was his 24-point performance against McNeese State. Between those two outings, he shot 11-of-19 from beyond the arc and looked like one of the best scorers in the nation—as he did in the previous season in games against Northwestern, Minnesota, Lamar and Mississippi Valley State.
When the real opponents showed up, though, Blackmon often didn't. In three games against ACC teams last year (Duke, Notre Dame and Wake Forest), he had 30 points on 31 shots, shooting a pedestrian 5-of-15 from beyond the arc. And according to KenPom.com, in 18 games against Tier A and Tier B competition in 2014-15, Blackmon had an O-rating of 98.0 and shot 31.8 percent from three.
To say the least, those aren't POY numbers. One of the big things that made Denzel Valentine and Buddy Hield stand out as national treasures last season was the outstanding performance each one had against Kansas with the whole world watching.
Scoring in bunches against Alcorn State and McNeese State is nice, but Blackmon had better start doing it against teams like Michigan State if he wants any chance of being named the 2017 B1G POY.
7. Miles Bridges, Michigan State
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2015-16 Stats: N/A (Incoming Freshman)
While most of the conferences in this series will have multiple freshmen in their top five, it was a down year for Big Ten recruiting.
Tom Izzo nabbed four studs in Miles Bridges (No. 12 overall), Joshua Langford (No. 20), Cassius Winston (No. 33) and Nick Ward (No. 41), but the only other Big Ten freshman ranked in the top 48 by 247Sports is Indiana's De'Ron Davis—and he likely won't even play that much with Thomas Bryant, OG Anunoby and (if he's healthy) Juwan Morgan already in that frontcourt.
Compared to last year's haul of Diamond Stone, Caleb Swanigan, Bryant, Deyonta Davis, Jalen Coleman-Lands and Jaquan Lyle, that's quite the drop.
That leaves Bridges as the obvious top candidate for Big Ten Freshman of the Year and perhaps the only new guy even remotely in the conversation for Big Ten POY.
With the athleticism to play on the wing and the toughness to bang bodies in the post, Bridges should be an excellent combo forward, similar to a young Draymond Green. Bridges isn't particularly lethal from three-point land, but he does have that kind of range. Once he gets a little more consistent with that stroke, he'll be one of the better offensive weapons in the conference.
Bridges has great defensive instincts, too, which is typically where the biggest concerns lie with freshmen in the frontcourt. His all-around game should make him one of the most valuable players in the conference.
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6. Caleb Swanigan, Purdue
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2015-16 Stats: 10.2 PPG, 8.3 RPG, 1.8 APG
Will Caleb Swanigan be more efficient this year?
We know the big man can ball. In the regular-season finale against Wisconsin's talented frontcourt, Swanigan had 27 points and eight rebounds with just one turnover. But those games were few and far between.
"Biggie" did have a string of five games against IUPUI, Howard, Youngstown State, Butler and Vanderbilt in which he posted an O-rating of 100 or better. However, that run was preceded by six straight sub-100 games and succeeded by five more poor performances.
Part of the problem was just bad shooting. While Indiana's freshman power forward Thomas Bryant shot 60 percent or better in 26 of his 35 games, Purdue's power forward shot 40 percent or worse in 14 games. Shooting 29.2 percent on 72 three-point attempts didn't help his numbers, but Swanigan didn't convert in the paint as well as most quality forwards do, either.
The bigger issue was turnovers. He committed at least three in 15 games and only had one game all season in which he didn't have at least one TO.
For some bizarre reason, it's 2016 and box scores still don't differentiate between types of turnovers. But according to CBSSports.com's play-by-play log of Purdue's game against Butler, Swanigan's season-high seven turnovers in that game consisted of four steals, two bad passes and one traveling violation.
Coaches can live with turnovers from offensive fouls, but those are just careless mistakes that need to be fixed now that Swanigan figures to be the primary scorer in A.J. Hammons' absence. If he does take better care of the ball as a sophomore, he'll be one of the Big Ten's brightest stars.
5. Ethan Happ, Wisconsin
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2015-16 Stats: 12.4 PPG, 7.9 RPG, 1.8 SPG, 1.3 APG, 0.9 BPG
It's hard to believe Ethan Happ was only a redshirt freshman last season, because he was the most consistently solid contributor for the Wisconsin Badgers.
Happ scored in double figures 26 times, including 10 double-doubles. He also had at least three combined blocks and steals 18 different times, thus also serving as Wisconsin's best asset on defense by a wide margin.
Aside from putting up 15.7 points and 9.3 rebounds in Wisconsin's three NCAA tournament games, Happ provided the most value when the Badgers were at their lowest point.
After tough losses to Purdue and Indiana early in conference play, Happ took the reins. Over the next five games, he averaged 17.4 points, 8.8 rebounds, 2.6 steals and 8.2 free-throw attempts, jump-starting the six-week streak that brought Wisconsin back from the dead.
Those are the things veteran leaders are supposed to do, and it's what makes him a legitimate candidate to be the Big Ten's best player on the best team.
4. Eron Harris, Michigan State
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2015-16 Stats: 9.3 PPG, 2.6 RPG, 2.1 APG, 43.9 3P%
For the first six weeks of the 2015-16 season, Eron Harris wasn't even a starter for the Spartans. In Michigan State's two biggest nonconference games (vs. Kansas and Louisville), Harris played a grand total of 21 minutes, recording nearly as many personal fouls (five) as points scored (seven).
But when Denzel Valentine was forced to missed a few games following knee surgery, Harris seized the opportunity, averaging 17.8 points and 4.5 rebounds in those four games.
We already knew Harris had that potential. He averaged 17.2 points and 3.5 rebounds per game as a sophomore at West Virginia. But those four games were his only chance to be the alpha dog thus far at Michigan State.
2016-17 is going to be another story, as Harris should become the go-to guy in his final season after the Spartans lost every other player who averaged at least 3.9 points per game.
Miles Bridges will be a key addition. Guys like Matt McQuaid and Alvin Ellis should take big steps forward. But Michigan State won't be a real contender in this conference unless Harris puts up at least 15 points per game. Thus, if the Spartans win the conference, he should be the hero.
3. Melo Trimble, Maryland
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2015-16 Stats: 14.8 PPG, 4.9 APG, 3.6 RPG, 1.3 SPG
Depending on who you ask, Melo Trimble is either one of the Big Ten's best players, or he's undeniably the best.
Trimble finished the season in a three-way tie for fifth place in the Big Ten in win shares. Every other player in the top nine is gone. Among returning players, Trimble ranks second in the conference in assists per game, fifth in steals per game and sixth in points per game.
But because he had a disappointing season from beyond the arc (31.4 percent) and had a slight increase in turnovers per game (from 2.5 to 2.7), it seemed like everyone had an opinion on why Trimble was struggling and blamed him for Maryland's inability to live up to lofty preseason expectations.
Fortunately, those expectations won't be an issue this year, as the Terrapins are unlikely to even open the season ranked in the AP Top 25, let alone receive votes for No. 1 overall. And, really, that's the main reason Trimble isn't No. 1 on our list.
The Big Ten appears to be a four-horse race this year between Wisconsin, Michigan State, Indiana and Purdue—which is why our top eight is almost exclusively devoted to those teams. But if Maryland sneaks into that top four despite losing four of last year's starters, Trimble will be lauded as the conference's most valuable player.
2. Thomas Bryant, Indiana
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2015-16 Stats: 11.9 PPG, 5.8 RPG, 1.0 APG, 0.9 BPG
Did you know it wasn't until Indiana's final game of the 2016 NCAA tournament that Thomas Bryant logged at least 30 minutes in a game? He was only on the court for 56.3 percent of Indiana's minutes last season, which is just barely more than the 56.0 percent Tyler Ulis played two years ago as the backup point guard in Kentucky's platoons approach.
The point here is, those per-game numbers don't look like that much, but you can just about double them to understand his impact on a per-40-minute basis.
Aside from James Blackmon—who didn't appear in a single Big Ten game and who shot just about every time he touched the ball—Bryant's 21.0 points per 40 minutes was the team's highest ratio. Only Max Bielfeldt had a higher rebounding rate than Bryant, but at 10.3 per 40 as opposed to 10.2, it was a negligible difference.
That scoring efficiency can largely be credited to his incredible shooting percentages. Bryant only averaged 11.6 field-goal attempts per 40 minutes—compared to 19.1 for Blackmon or 14.1 for Yogi Ferrell—but he shot 70.7 percent from inside the arc as well as 70.6 percent from the free-throw line.
When he wanted to score, he usually did. And with Bielfeldt and Troy Williams both out of the picture this year, Bryant should get more minutes and more touches per minute. Upward of 20 points per game could be coming for the sophomore.
1. Nigel Hayes, Wisconsin
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2015-16 Stats: 15.7 PPG, 5.8 RPG, 3.0 APG, 1.1 SPG
Of everyone on this list, Nigel Hayes had the worst 2015-16 season—particularly the final six weeks of it. Over his final 10 games, Hayes shot 32.5 percent inside the arc and 22.2 percent beyond it. He scored a total of 123 points while taking 122 shots.
And those numbers even include a great regular-season finale against Purdue in which he scored 30 points in one of his most efficient games of the year. Remove that outlier and the numbers get considerably worse. In his four postseason games, Hayes scored 39 points on 54 shots, shooting 9.5 percent from three-point range.
Yet, according to Chris Dortch, Hayes is the Blue Ribbon College Basketball Yearbook's preseason National POY and our no-second-thoughts pick for Big Ten POY, because we know he can be better. We saw it two years ago when he was just as important to Wisconsin's title-game appearance as Frank Kaminsky and Sam Dekker were.
Hayes just hit a slump at the wrong time, but he continued to lead the team through it, working hard on defense and drawing double-teams that opened up the floor for Ethan Happ and others to go to work.
Provided he remembers how to shoot this year, Hayes should score around 20 points per game for the projected best team in the Big Ten.
Stats are courtesy of KenPom.com or Sports-Reference.com, and recruiting information is courtesy of 247Sports, unless noted otherwise.
Kerry Miller covers college basketball for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @kerrancejames.
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