College Basketball Teams That'll Be Most Impacted by the 2017 NBA Draft
Indiana should have a great 2016-17 college basketball season led by Thomas Bryant, James Blackmon Jr. and OG Anunoby, but the Hoosiers are one of several teams that could be headed for a rough year in 2017-18 if and when those underclassmen declare for the 2017 NBA draft.
There's no way to know what the star players will decide to do about their NBA potentials nine months from now. But from the various 2017 NBA mock drafts, we at least have a good idea which ones will have the opportunities to go pro.
Using that information, we're forecasting the teams most likely to be negatively impacted by next year's draft.
Though we've listed graduating seniors on the following slides, they weren't considered as part of the ranking process. Rather, they are mentioned to illustrate how much these teams will need to replace on top of the projected early entrants.
Teams are ranked in ascending order of how difficult it would be for them to remain as good in 2017-18 if they lose their potential first-round draft picks.
Honorable Mentions
1 of 10
UCLA Bruins and Washington Huskies
The 2016-17 regular season will determine whether UCLA's Lonzo Ball or Washington's Markelle Fultz comes off the board first, but everyone under the sun is expecting those stud point guards to bolt for the NBA lottery after just one season. They're probably the only players from their respective rosters who will leave early, but they'll be almost impossible to replace.
California Golden Bears
In addition to Jabari Bird, Grant Mullins and Sam Singer graduating, the assumption is that Ivan Rabb will declare for the draft after his sophomore year. It'll be Cuonzo Martin's second consecutive offseason replacing at least three of his primary contributors. Unless he has another recruiting class like Rabb and Jaylen Brown up his sleeve, that's going to be a tough pill to swallow.
Oregon Ducks
No mock drafts currently have Dillon Brooks or Tyler Dorsey as projected first-rounders, but they both tested the draft waters this year and may be gone along with seniors Chris Boucher and Dylan Ennis. Big man Jordan Bell also has the talent to get into the draft conversation, as he'll have a bigger role as a junior.
To-Be-Determined Pac-12 Team
Along with those four honorable mentions, we also have Arizona and USC in our top nine. That's half of the Pac-12 likely to lose at least one crucial player to an early-entry decision. Whether it's Utah, Oregon State or Stanford, some Pac-12 team will be positively impacted by all of the carnage elsewhere.
Michigan State Spartans
Eron Harris, Gavin Schilling, Alvin Ellis III and incoming transfer Ben Carter are all seniors. If everyone with remaining eligibility stays for another year, the Spartans could survive those departures. However, Miles Bridges is likely a one-and-done guy, and we can't rule out Joshua Langford following him down that path. That would be a huge blow for Michigan State, necessitating a second consecutive monster recruiting haul.
Xavier Musketeers
Xavier will lose Myles Davis and RaShid Gaston to graduation, it will probably lose Edmond Sumner as a late first-rounder and it may even lose Trevon Bluiett if his junior season is even better than what he did in 2015-16.
North Carolina Tar Heels
Like Xavier, the Tar Heels have two key seniors (Isaiah Hicks and Kennedy Meeks), a guy currently projected as a late first-rounder (Justin Jackson) and another guy who could get into the draft conversation with another good year (Joel Berry). The Tar Heels will probably luck out with Berry because the 2017 draft market is oversaturated with star point guards, but you never know.
9. Texas Longhorns
2 of 10
Graduating: Shaquille Cleare, Kendal Yancy, Mariek Isom
Probably Leaving Early: Jarrett Allen
Potentially Leaving Early: Andrew Jones
By most accounts, Jarrett Allen will be a lottery pick next year.
That might be a tad bit too optimistic. Because he waited until June to pick a school, Allen's value may have been inflated by the sheer fact that we were obsessing over him and his decision later into the summer than any other incoming freshman. That said, a one-and-done season that results in a first-round pick is a strong possibility, and it would be a mild surprise to see him play two collegiate seasons.
Along with Shaquille Cleare and Mariek Isom running out of years of eligibility, Allen declaring for the draft would leave the Longhorns with 2016 freshman James Banks and 2017 freshman Royce Hamm as their only frontcourt players in 2017-18. Head coach Shaka Smart has plenty of time to add to that list, but it's where things currently stand.
Might Andrew Jones force Smart to also go searching for a replacement in the backcourt?
A stud combo guard who will keep Texas fans from lamenting Isaiah Taylor's decision to go pro, Jones has the size and talent to make the leap to the NBA after one year. And with so many guards on this roster who won't be graduating after 2016-17 (Eric Davis Jr., Kerwin Roach Jr., Jacob Young and Tevin Mack), there's a good chance at least one player will leave rather than signing up for another year in a timeshare.
8. Arizona Wildcats
3 of 10
Graduating: Kadeem Allen, Talbott Denny
Probably Leaving Early: Allonzo Trier
Potentially Leaving Early: Ray Smith, Lauri Markkanen, Rawle Alkins, Kobi Simmons
Arizona is loaded with more draft question marks than any other team.
Allonzo Trier will most likely go pro. He probably would have left a few months ago were it not for a broken hand that cost him a few weeks and kept him from reaching his full potential. A healthy 2016-17 season would likely be his final one in college.
Other than that, who knows?
Arizona has four 5-star freshmen—three in this year's class and redshirt freshman Ray Smith. However, they're all in that Nos. 19-28 overall range, which provides more promise than the 4-star recruits, but they aren't particularly likely to go pro after just one season.
Every single player in the Nos. 12-25 range in the 2015 recruiting class is still in school. And from the collection of "bottom-10" 5-star recruits in each year from 2011-14, 33 out of 40 played multiple seasons.
Maybe one of those four "potentially leaving early" players declares, but if three of them come back, Arizona would still be in good shape—particularly given head coach Sean Miller's recruiting successes in recent years.
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7. Kansas Jayhawks
4 of 10
Graduating: Frank Mason III, Landen Lucas
Probably Leaving Early: Josh Jackson
Potentially Leaving Early: Carlton Bragg, Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk, Devonte' Graham
Kansas is losing three starters after this season. Frank Mason III and Landen Lucas are both seniors, and Josh Jackson is the best incoming freshman in the country. If you think there's any chance he's staying for multiple seasons, you're only kidding yourself.
But could the Jayhawks lose their entire primary six-man rotation?
Carlton Bragg was a 5-star recruit in last year's class, and even though he only played 8.9 minutes per game, he put up solid numbers in his limited time on the court. As the projected starting power forward in 2016-17, he'll get plenty of opportunities to show off his skill to NBA scouts.
Meanwhile, Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk is about to enter his third collegiate season as a projected first-round draft pick. Maybe he sticks around to finally become a starter as a senior, but it couldn't possibly be considered a surprise if he decides to go get paid.
Devonte' Graham is the wild card in the Kansas equation, but if he has another season shooting better than 40 percent from three-point range with an assist-to-turnover ratio better than 2.0, what more does he have left to prove in college?
Even if head coach Bill Self loses all six of those guys, though, he'll find a way to make it work. The Jayhawks would still have Malik Newman, Lagerald Vick, Mitch Lightfoot, Udoka Azubuike, Evan Maxwell and an inevitably strong 2017 recruiting class that already includes stud combo guard Marcus Garrett.
6. USC Trojans
5 of 10
Graduating: Charles Buggs
Probably Leaving Early: None
Potentially Leaving Early: Bennie Boatwright, Chimezie Metu
Picking up Duke transfer Derryck Thornton was a huge get for USC. With only incoming transfer Charles Buggs running out of eligibility after this year, the Trojans could have a 2017-18 starting five of Thornton, Jordan McLaughlin, Elijah Stewart, Bennie Boatwright and Chimezie Metu with former Louisville transfer Shaqquan Aaron a quality sixth man off the bench.
Given the litany of Pac-12 teams projected to lose at least one major player as an early entrant to the 2017 draft, that's a lineup that could contend for a conference title.
But what in the world will head coach Andy Enfield do if Boatwright and Metu—capitalizing on more playing time with monster sophomore seasons—declare for the NBA draft? Aside from a couple of 3-star guys from this year's class, USC wouldn't have anyone taller than 6'7".
As was the case on Texas' slide, there's plenty of time between now and the start of the 2017-18 season to figure something out, but Boatwright and Metu are a huge part of why USC might win the Pac-12 with that lineup. Unless Enfield pulls a 7'0" rabbit out of his hat, the Trojans would be lucky to finish .500 in conference play without that duo.
5. Florida State Seminoles
6 of 10
Graduating: Jarquez Smith
Probably Leaving Early: Jonathan Isaac, Dwayne Bacon
Potentially Leaving Early: Xavier Rathan-Mayes
With Dwayne Bacon returning for a second season and 5-star big man Jonathan Isaac joining the roster, Florida State is a prime candidate for a breakout season. The Seminoles have won at least 17 games in 10 consecutive seasons, but they have never won more than 25. They're perennially on the bubble, and Isaac could be the catalyst who pushes them over the top.
But considering he was exploring his options of jumping straight from high school to the NBA, it's a safe bet Isaac will be gone after one year, likely taking Bacon with him—provided Bacon is more efficient as a sophomore than he was as a freshman.
Could Xavier Rathan-Mayes also join the going-away party, forgoing his senior year?
Would it even matter if he stays?
In Isaac, Bacon and Jarquez Smith, the Seminoles are already losing three starters, and they aren't typically a team that strikes it rich on the recruiting trail. In fact, Isaac and Bacon are head coach Leonard Hamilton's only 5-star signings thus far in the 2010s. Replacing that much talent in one offseason is not something this program is equipped to do.
4. North Carolina State Wolfpack
7 of 10
Graduating: BeeJay Anya, Lennard Freeman
Probably Leaving Early: Dennis Smith
Potentially Leaving Early: Omer Yurtseven, Abdul-Malik Abu
It's not often that North Carolina State loses a freshman after one season—unless you count guys like Josh Davis (Tulane), Ryan Harrow (Kentucky) and Rodney Purvis (Connecticut) transferring before their sophomore seasons. JJ Hickson declared for the draft as a freshman in 2008, but that's the only instance in the past 15 years.
But that could change in a big way next summer.
NC State already lost one stud point guard this year when Cat Barber opted to forgo his final year of eligibility to ultimately go undrafted. And it's no secret the Wolfpack will be losing another great point guard after the upcoming season, as Dennis Smith is a top-10 2017 NBA draft pick in nearly every mock draft out there right now.
Might Omer Yurtseven join Smith on the one-and-done train? Scouting reports on international imports are few and far between, but those who have seen Yurtseven rave about him and his potential. Of course, it's not hard to be impressed when a guy goes for 91 points and 28 rebounds in a single game.
Yurtseven hasn't made it into all of the mocks, but he's a mid-first-round pick in the ones that did project his draft status.
If Smith and Yurtseven both leave, Abdul-Malik Abu might not be far behind them. He tested the draft waters in May and seemed to have both feet out the door. We weren't expecting him to come back for one more year, let alone two of them.
Though they would still have Maverick Rowan, Terry Henderson, Ted Kapita and Markell Johnson, losing all three of those guys would be more than this team could handle. 2016-17 should be a solid year for the Wolfpack, but 2017-18 could be a rough one unless head coach Mark Gottfried snags a few more 5-star recruits.
3. Indiana Hoosiers
8 of 10
Graduating: Collin Hartman
Probably Leaving Early: Thomas Bryant, OG Anunoby
Potentially Leaving Early: James Blackmon Jr.
A testament to how much of a guessing game draft prognostication can be, OG Anunoby is a near-unanimous 2017 first-round pick, even though the vast majority of college basketball fans outside of Bloomington hadn't even heard of him until December.
These things happen when your team transforms from a train wreck into a Big Ten champion after your playing time doubles. Anunoby was an outstanding defender who looked like he was going to jump out of the gym at least once per game. Big things are expected for the sophomore, including an NBA contract less than a year from now.
Thomas Bryant is even more of a lock to enter the draft than Anunoby. The Hoosiers are lucky he even decided to come back for a second year. They had better capitalize while they have him.
The unknown in the equation is James Blackmon Jr. The junior guard has one of the purest shooting strokes in the world, but knee injuries have been an issue throughout his career. If he's healthy and shooting well for the entirety of the 2016-17 season, it's a safe bet he'll at least test the draft waters again. And if he does leave, that's another gigantic hole head coach Tom Crean will need to fill.
2. Kentucky Wildcats
9 of 10
Graduating: Derek Willis, Dominique Hawkins, Mychal Mulder
Probably Leaving Early: Bam Adebayo, Malik Monk, De'Aaron Fox
Potentially Leaving Early: Isaiah Briscoe, Wenyen Gabriel, Sacha Killeya-Jones
For just about every other team in the country, this kind of list would cripple the program for the better part of a decade. Most teams can't even handle losing one senior and two early entrants, let alone potentially three times that amount of both.
Par for the course for Kentucky, though, right?
Well, not exactly.
The only returning players who aren't going to graduate after the 2016-17 season are Isaiah Briscoe and Isaac Humphries. And it's already a foregone conclusion that three of this year's five freshmen will put their names in the NBA draft. Depending on how many more join them, the Wildcats could be in a bit of trouble.
Briscoe is the big one. Some combination of Humphries, Wenyen Gabriel and Sacha Killeya-Jones will be back, quite possibly all three of them. But they're all forwards. With Dominique Hawkins and Mychal Mulder graduating while Malik Monk and De'Aaron Fox ride the one-and-done train to the pros, Briscoe is head coach John Calipari's only hope for some sort of backcourt experience in 2017-18.
However, not many are expecting Briscoe to be a first-round draft pick. NBA Draft Room is the only one that currently has him going that high, and even it only has him at No. 29.
A third year of Briscoe would keep Kentucky near the top of the preseason polls for a ninth straight year. Without Briscoe, though, expectations would be slightly tempered.
1. Duke Blue Devils
10 of 10
Graduating: Matt Jones, Amile Jefferson
Probably Leaving Early: Harry Giles, Jayson Tatum, Grayson Allen
Potentially Leaving Early: Marques Bolden, Frank Jackson
Like the mass exodus from Kentucky after it went 38-1, Duke might lose all seven of its primary contributors following the 2016-17 season.
There's nothing head coach Mike Krzyzewski can do about Matt Jones or Amile Jefferson, and considering Harry Giles and Jayson Tatum are unanimous top-five picks, he probably can't keep them from leaving, either. Grayson Allen is also a near-lock to declare for the draft after his junior season, provided it's anywhere near as good as his sophomore year was.
(This is probably for the best, as yet another year of Allen tripping opponents might actually break the internet.)
The wild cards are Marques Bolden and Frank Jackson.
If those two return along with Luke Kennard, Chase Jeter and Javin DeLaurier to join the multiple 5-star recruits who Duke will inevitably sign, the Blue Devils will be in business. If Bolden and Jackson bolt after one season, though, even the top 2017 recruiting class in the country might not be enough to keep the Blue Devils among the title favorites.
Bolden is the better NBA prospect, but Jackson is going to play more minutes at a position with less depth. Tough to project what either one will do. But Duke could go from a team with the talent to go undefeated in 2016-17 to one that struggles to remain in the Top 25 in 2017-18.
That would be one heck of an impact from the NBA draft.
Stats are courtesy of KenPom.com or Sports-Reference.com, and recruiting data is courtesy of 247Sports, unless noted otherwise.
Kerry Miller covers college basketball for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @kerrancejames.
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