Former 5-Star Recruits Who Will Most Impact 2016-17 College Basketball Season
Five-star recruits often leave for the NBA after just one year of college hoops, but Villanova's Jalen Brunson headlines a long list of former 5-star guys who should make a major impact in what will be at least their second collegiate season in 2016-17.
Many of these guys—particularly Ivan Rabb, Thomas Bryant and Allonzo Trier—surprised us by returning for another year after a strong campaign in 2015-16, but we certainly won't complain about getting to see these studs in action for a few more months.
Players on the following slides are listed in ascending order of projected national impact. As such, indispensable contributors for title contenders sit atop the list, and there are quite a few of them.
Honorable Mentions
1 of 21
There only are 29 former 5-star recruits, so we might as well mention them all. Here are the nine honorable mentions:
Chase Jeter and Luke Kennard, Duke
Kennard should play at least five times as much as Jeter, but Duke frankly doesn't need either of them this year. A primary seven-man rotation of Frank Jackson, Grayson Allen, Jayson Tatum, Harry Giles and Marques Bolden with Amile Jefferson and Matt Jones as veteran reserves would be plenty to vie for a title.
PJ Dozier, South Carolina
Dozier had an atrocious freshman year, posting a 78.9 O-rating, according to KenPom.com. In South Carolina's first loss of the season, he had no points, no assists, one rebound, four turnovers and five fouls. If the Gamecocks are going to do anything this year, they'll need much more out of Dozier.
Kasey Hill, Florida
With the addition of stud transfer Canyon Barry and quality freshman guard Eric Hester, Hill might have trouble even getting on the court after three disappointing seasons.
Robert Hubbs, Tennessee
Hubbs should be the leading scorer for the Volunteers in his final season, but unlike the vast majority of teams represented on this list, they'll be lucky to win 50 percent of their games. Even if he puts up big numbers, it won't make much of a national impact.
Ray Smith, Arizona
Smith could be a top-10 guy as a projected starter for a Top-10 team, but we couldn't rationalize removing one of our top-20 players in favor of someone who hasn't yet appeared in a collegiate game.
Marcus Lee, Malik Newman and Derryck Thornton
More than 10 percent of the "returning" 5-star recruits will be sitting out this season after transferring, but go ahead and keep telling yourself there isn't a transfer epidemic in this sport.
20. Devin Robinson, Florida
2 of 21
2015-16 Stats: 9.0 PPG, 5.6 RPG, 34.0 3P%
Recruiting Rank: No. 18 in 2014
Following a disappointing one-and-a-half seasons to begin his collegiate career, Devin Robinson brought it in SEC conference play as a sophomore. He could be headed for a monster junior year with Dorian Finney-Smith out of the picture.
Though he only averaged 2.6 attempts per game, Robinson shot 47.8 percent from beyond the arc in SEC play while also becoming more of a force on the defensive end.
Where the Gators will really need him to step up in 2016-17 is on the glass. They have a plethora of shooting guards, but Finney-Smith's 8.3 rebounds per game will be sorely missed. Robinson was third in rebounding percentage behind Finney-Smith and John Egbunu last year, though, so he might be the type of stretch 4 for Florida Nigel Hayes has been for Wisconsin in recent years.
19. Antonio Blakeney, LSU
3 of 21
2015-16 Stats: 12.6 PPG, 3.5 RPG, 33.5 3P%
Recruiting Rank: No. 16 in 2015
Not surprisingly, Antonio Blakeney's freshman season was hopelessly overlooked by the national media. Between Ben Simmons putting up incredible individual numbers and the team failing to make the NCAA tournament anyway, there wasn't much room to talk about what Blakeney was doing.
He didn't help himself with his play from Thanksgiving through mid-January, either. He averaged just 5.7 points per game during a 10-game stretch in which he shot 23.1 percent from three-point range.
But few players finished stronger than he did. Blakeney played at least 34 minutes in each of his final 11 games, averaging 18.6 points. The Tigers will need more of that after losing Simmons, Tim Quarterman, Keith Hornsby and Josh Gray, but Blakeney just might be enough to steer them back to the tournament.
.png?w=256 "NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament Championship")
18. Jabari Bird, California
4 of 21
2015-16 Stats: 10.4 PPG, 3.3 RPG, 40.9 3P%
Recruiting Rank: No. 21 in 2013
Much like Antonio Blakeney, Jabari Bird didn't get much attention last season. Save for one hot stretch in the middle of February, Bird was California's fifth-most important starter—and he even lost that job for about six weeks early in the year.
But with Tyrone Wallace graduating, Jaylen Brown going pro and Jordan Mathews transferring to Gonzaga, Bird is going to be the second-most important piece of the puzzle as the Golden Bears seek a return trip to the NCAA tournament.
If he continues to shoot as well as he did last year, that's not a bad thing. In terms of effective field-goal percentage, he was better than Wallace, Brown and Mathews. Bird could be headed for a big year as one of the primary scorers, provided new point guard Grant Mullins can set him up with open looks as well and as often as Wallace used to do.
17. DaJuan Coleman, Syracuse
5 of 21
2015-16 Stats: 4.9 PPG, 4.6 RPG, 0.9 BPG
Recruiting Rank: No. 22 in 2012
With the additions of Providence transfer Paschal Chukwu, and stud freshmen Matthew Moyer and Taurean Thompson, Syracuse's hopes and dreams aren't nearly as dependent on DaJuan Coleman's health as they were last year when he was one of just three frontcourt players regularly used. But the fifth-year senior should still be a key member of the team because of his experience, if nothing else.
Michael Gbinije and Trevor Cooney both graduated and Kaleb Joseph and Chinonso Obokoh both transferred, leaving Coleman, Tyler Roberson and incoming Colorado State transfer John Gillon as the only juniors or seniors on the 2016-17 roster that scored a single point in 2015-16.
Coleman played 17.5 minutes per game last season and will almost certainly play less than that in the upcoming season. As a big man who averaged 11.2 points, 10.5 rebounds, 2.0 blocks and 1.7 steals per 40 minutes, though, he could make a significant impact with that limited playing time.
16. Jalen Adams, Connecticut
6 of 21
2015-16 Stats: 7.3 PPG, 2.6 RPG, 2.4 APG, 1.1 SPG
Recruiting Rank: No. 23 in 2015
Jalen Adams' first collegiate season was more miss than hit. The point guard's turnover rate (20.7) was higher than his assist rate (19.9), and he shot just 27.3 percent from three-point range as he bounced in and out of the starting lineup four times.
But he was in a strange situation with Daniel Hamilton racking up a ton of assists while Rodney Purvis and Sterling Gibbs commanding a lot of touches, too. With Hamilton and Gibbs both leaving, Adams should become the primary ball-handler.
Once established in that role, Adams should become more consistent and must be considered a candidate for a major breakout season. Because when he was feeling it, Adams was excellent, creating advantages for the Huskies on both ends of the floor with his vision and hands. He was also a much better shooter over the final 10 games of his freshman season.
15. Theo Pinson, North Carolina
7 of 21
2015-16 Stats: 4.5 PPG, 3.2 RPG, 2.9 APG
Recruiting Rank: No. 15 in 2014
The first of several Tar Heels on this list, Theo Pinson could be the missing link that puts North Carolina back in the driver's seat for a trip to the Final Four.
Joel Berry, Justin Jackson and Kennedy Meeks will remain starters while Isaiah Hicks slides into the starting lineup in an attempt to replace Brice Johnson. But the big question for the Tar Heels is: Who fills the void left by Marcus Paige's graduation?
Pinson should be at the top of a long list of potential answers that also includes Nate Britt, Kenny Williams, Seventh Woods and Brandon Robinson.
He isn't much of a scorer, but Pinson is a great passer and a solid rebounder for his height. He's the type of guy who will do all of the little things, often impacting the flow of the game more so than its final box score.
14. Carlton Bragg, Kansas
8 of 21
2015-16 Stats: 3.8 PPG, 2.5 RPG
Recruiting Rank: No. 24 in 2015
After minimally touching the floor in 2015-16, Carlton Bragg is about to become the biggest X-factor for the Jayhawks.
Perry Ellis, Jamari Traylor, Cheick Diallo and Hunter Mickelson all blocked his path to playing time as a freshmen, but Bragg should be their starting power forward this year. An excellent rebounder and efficient scorer during his limited minutes, he could be the best big man in the Big 12 if he can cut down on his fouls and turnovers.
But it's tough to rank him any higher than this, because Kansas has other options if he struggles in an expanded role. Bill Self could choose to go a little bit smaller with either Svi Mykhailiuk or Josh Jackson at the 4 while getting Lagerald Vick more minutes in the backcourt, or he could give more minutes to new big men Dwight Coleby, Udoka Azubuike and Mitch Lightfoot.
Bragg should get first dibs on the job, though, and we like his chances of capitalizing on the opportunity.
13. Dwayne Bacon, Florida State
9 of 21
2015-16 Stats: 15.8 PPG, 5.8 RPG, 1.5 APG, 1.0 SPG
Recruiting Rank: No. 17 in 2015
No. 13 feels way too low for Dwayne Bacon, but most of these players are either proven efficient contributors or key pieces of projected title contenders. Bacon scores in bunches, but he had an inefficient freshman season (48.3 effective field-goal percentage) and plays for a team that might be lucky to make the NCAA tournament this year.
The problem in figuring out where to rank him is that the national impact this former 5-star player ends up making will depend heavily on how well Florida State's new 5-star player performs.
If Jonathan Isaac lives up to the hype and gives the Seminoles a legitimate interior weapon to keep the defense from focusing exclusively on their star guards, Bacon could have a monster sophomore season devoid of forcing contested shots. If Isaac doesn't help open things up, though, it could be another lackluster year for Florida State with Bacon averaging just 1.22 points per field-goal attempt.
12. Isaiah Briscoe, Kentucky
10 of 21
2015-16 Stats: 9.6 PPG, 5.3 RPG, 3.1 APG, 1.0 SPG
Recruiting Rank: No. 12 in 2015
Speaking of inefficient scorers, Kentucky's Isaiah Briscoe only averaged 1.08 points per field-goal attempt as a freshman. But he was still on the floor for more than three-fourths of Kentucky's minutes played because of his contributions on defense and his ability to drive and create.
Look for more of the same this year, as the Wildcats figure to have the most athletically gifted backcourt in recent history. Even if opponents don't need to respect his three-point stroke, Briscoe will help spread the floor, keeping the opposition on its heels with his slashing and ability to finish at the rim.
As with Dwayne Bacon, though, the exact measure of Briscoe's impact will depend on an incoming stud in the frontcourt. Skal Labissiere was a disappointment in his one year in Lexington, and Marcus Lee and Alex Poythress didn't make as much of a difference as they could have. As a result, defenders weren't afraid to help off those guys to put a stop to Briscoe's efforts to get to the rim. That should be a different story with Bam Adebayo commanding a lot of defensive attention.
11. Caleb Swanigan, Purdue
11 of 21
2015-16 Stats: 10.2 PPG, 8.3 RPG, 1.8 APG
Recruiting Rank: No. 18 in 2015
It's no coincidence three inefficient scorers fell back-to-back-to-back on this list.
For Dwayne Bacon, Isaiah Briscoe and Caleb Swanigan, becoming more consistent will be the key in 2016-17. Each one has more than enough talent to rank in the top five, but not one of them belongs in the top 10 until he improves his shooting percentages and his turnover rate.
Swanigan ranks best in that trio because of his obvious impact on the glass and his underrated value as a passer. The big man had eight double-doubles as a freshman and should be headed for many more with A.J. Hammons out of the picture. Swanigan also had 18 games with multiple assists, which is not a trait we usually find in 6'9", 250-pound forwards.
But 2.6 turnovers per game and a 46.1 field-goal percentage are also numbers a man of his stature should be posting. With higher percentage shots and smarter passes, he could steer Purdue to a Big Ten title.
10. Rodney Purvis, Connecticut
12 of 21
2015-16 Stats: 12.8 PPG, 3.0 RPG, 2.1 APG, 38.5 3P%
Recruiting Rank: No. 14 in 2012
Rodney Purvis and DaJuan Coleman are the only remaining 5-star recruits from the class of 2012. While Coleman's role at Syracuse may diminish this year, Purvis should be the most important player on Connecticut's roster.
The Huskies lost a ton of pieces this offseason, including Daniel Hamilton, Sterling Gibbs, Omar Calhoun and Sam Cassell. That leaves Purvis and Jalen Adams as the only returning backcourt players who made any sort of impact in 2015-16.
They do add VCU transfer Terry Larrier and stud freshman point guard Alterique Gilbert, but Purvis figures to lead this team in scoring by a wide margin—similar to what Ryan Boatright did as the senior leader of UConn in 2014-15.
9. Isaac Hamilton, UCLA
13 of 21
2015-16 Stats: 16.8 PPG, 4.2 RPG, 3.3 APG, 1.0 SPG, 37.7 3P%
Recruiting Rank: No. 19 in 2013
On the one hand, Isaac Hamilton had the highest scoring average in 2015-16 of any player on this list. He has been indispensable for the Bruins over the past two seasons as a plus-shooter and a secondary ball-handler. Hamilton also became a better finisher inside the arc last year, improving his two-point percentage by more than 100 points.
However, UCLA's roster is now overrun with quality guards. Hamilton played 35.3 minutes per game as a junior, but with Lonzo Ball joining the team and Bryce Alford and Aaron Holiday still in the picture, playing time will be tougher to come by.
Still, Hamilton figures to start and score a ton for a team that will be better than last year's 15-17 disaster. In fact, with Ball running the show, Hamilton could put up even bigger numbers in his final season, provided he gets enough touches.
8. Justin Jackson, North Carolina
14 of 21
2015-16 Stats: 12.2 PPG, 3.9 RPG, 2.8 APG
Recruiting Rank: No. 9 in 2014
As promised earlier, there are a handful of Tar Heels on the list. We've now seen Theo Pinson and Justin Jackson, Isaiah Hicks will make an appearance soon, and Joel Berry and Kennedy Meeks were both high-4-star players in their respective classes. Good luck finding a team with more experienced talent this year.
Will this be the year Jackson becomes a more reliable shooter?
His performances in the 2016 NCAA tournament would suggest he's headed for a big junior year. Jackson shot 9-of-19 (47.4 percent) from three-point range, had at least three rebounds in each of the six games and recorded a triple-digit O-rating in each one, averaging a 133.0 for the tournament. He entered the tourney shooting 25.7 percent from beyond the arc, so that was a huge improvement.
Without Marcus Paige, North Carolina will need more of the same from Jackson.
7. Ivan Rabb, California
15 of 21
2015-16 Stats: 12.5 PPG, 8.5 RPG, 1.2 BPG
Recruiting Rank: No. 7 in 2015
Ivan Rabb is the best NBA prospect of the bunch. Provided he doesn't have a disappointing sophomore year, he should be the first non-freshman off the board in the 2017 draft.
But how much of an impact can he make on a team that might miss the NCAA tournament?
Missing the dance didn't stop us from marveling over Ben Simmons on a nightly basis last year, but Rabb isn't nearly that type of must-watch phenom. If California isn't a Top 25 team, he will go relatively unnoticed compared to the remaining players on this list who all play for title contenders.
That said, Rabb ought to put up some ridiculous numbers as a sophomore. He didn't force the issue on the offensive end last year, but he no longer has Jaylen Brown, Tyrone Wallace and Jordan Mathews to shoulder the load. Rabb will be the go-to guy for the Golden Bears. As a result, he should average close to 18 points and 10 rebounds per game.
6. Allonzo Trier, Arizona
16 of 21
2015-16 Stats: 14.8 PPG, 3.3 RPG, 1.1 APG, 36.4 3P%
Recruiting Rank: No. 13 in 2015
Few teams will run deeper in 2016-17 than Arizona. With three incoming 5-star recruits (four, actually, if you count redshirt freshman Ray Smith as an incoming player), a key JUCO transfer in Keanu Pinder and four returning players who averaged at least 5.0 points per game last season, the Wildcats have nine players who could be in the mix for a starting job.
Allonzo Trier will be the main attraction, though, as the leading returning scorer should become even more important without Gabe York's seven three-point attempts per game.
Trier missed about a month of Pac-12 play last season due to a broken hand, but he didn't miss a beat, averaging the same number of points per game after returning as he did in the first two months of the season. But it did look like he was about to really come out of his shell right before suffering the injury, scoring at least 20 points four times in a span of eight games.
Perhaps the injury just delayed the inevitable and his sophomore year will be when the breakout really begins.
5. James Blackmon, Indiana
17 of 21
2015-16 Stats: 15.8 PPG, 4.2 RPG, 1.7 APG, 1.2 SPG, 46.3 3P%
Recruiting Rank: No. 20 in 2014
After missing most of the 2015-16 season with a knee injury, James Blackmon should be back to lead the Hoosiers in scoring as a junior.
There might not be a better three-point shooter in the country right now. When Blackmon gets into a rhythm, there's next to nothing the defense can do to stop him. In his final three games before the injury, he was 12-of-22 (54.5 percent) from downtown, shooting 50 percent or better in each game.
But unlike most three-point assassins, Blackmon contributes elsewhere, too. He's a solid rebounder who frequently pitches in with assists and steals. He's also a good scorer inside the arc, converting on 50 percent of his two-point attempts last season while taking nearly as many twos (72) as threes (80).
4. Thomas Bryant, Indiana
18 of 21
2015-16 Stats: 11.9 PPG, 5.8 RPG, 1.0 APG, 0.9 BPG
Recruiting Rank: No. 20 in 2015
In addition to James Blackmon's backcourt prowess, Thomas Bryant gives Indiana a force of nature in the paint. The big man shot 70.7 percent from inside the arc as a freshman, racking up a good number of rebounds and blocks along the way.
He didn't have many double-doubles (two), but that was an issue of playing time rather than contribution. Often in foul trouble, Bryant only averaged 22.6 minutes per game as a freshman. But with Max Bielfeldt graduating and Troy Williams declaring for the NBA draft, the Hoosiers will need to lean more heavily on Bryant in 2016-17.
He should also get more frequent touches in his additional minutes, as the departures of Williams and Yogi Ferrell open up a lot of shots for the rest of the team. If Bryant remains anywhere near as efficient as he was last year, he could flirt with scoring 20 points per game.
3. Isaiah Hicks, North Carolina
19 of 21
2015-16 Stats: 8.9 PPG, 4.6 RPG
Recruiting Rank: No. 16 in 2013
At long last, Isaiah Hicks will get the playing time his talent deserves.
North Carolina's star reserve averaged 19.8 points, 10.2 rebounds and 1.3 blocks per 40 minutes as a junior, but he only played 18.1 minutes per game, unable to break into the starting lineup with Brice Johnson in the way.
Johnson's gone now, but will this finally be the year that Hicks learns how to play without getting into foul trouble? He has averaged 6.7 personal fouls per 40 minutes in each of the past two seasons—an issue that came to a head in the 2016 Sweet 16 win over Indiana when he fouled out in just seven minutes.
If he can stay on the court, though, he should have a big year. Hicks scores efficiently, owns the offensive glass and contributes nicely on the defensive end. Replacing arguably the best forward in the country will not be easy, but Hicks should help soften the blow.
2. Austin Nichols, Virginia
20 of 21
2015-16 Stats: DNP (Transfer)
Recruiting Rank: No. 22 in 2013
The only player on this list who did not play last year, Austin Nichols will be a massive addition for a Cavaliers squad in search of a fourth consecutive No. 1 or No. 2 seed in the NCAA tournament.
Nichols was a big asset on offense two years ago for Memphis, averaging 13.3 points and 2.0 offensive rebounds per game—which is close to what Anthony Gill (13.8 points, 2.2 offensive rebounds) just gave Virginia in his senior year.
Where his impact will be most felt, though, is as the anchor of what might be the most impenetrable defense ever assembled.
Nichols averaged 4.7 blocks per 40 minutes in his final season with the Tigers, rejecting or altering seemingly every shot within eight feet of the rim. Putting him in Virginia's pack-line defense next to Isaiah Wilkins—who has a career block percentage of 5.9—is just unfair to the rest of the country.
1. Jalen Brunson, Villanova
21 of 21
2015-16 Stats: 9.6 PPG, 2.5 APG, 1.8 RPG, 38.3 3P%
Recruiting Rank: No. 22 in 2015
Jalen Brunson likely won't rack up points quite like most of the players on the list, but no player will make more of an impact than the starting point guard for a team looking to win its second consecutive national championship.
Villanova is loaded with roster flexibility. Guys like Josh Hart, Kris Jenkins, Mikal Bridges and Eric Paschall can all play multiple positions. But Ryan Arcidiacono's graduation leaves Brunson as the only point guard on the roster. Plenty of his teammates will register a good number of assists, but he should be the Wildcats' undisputed primary ball-handler as a sophomore.
With so much talent surrounding him, Brunson doesn't need to play like a superhero to be regarded as one. Drain the occasional three-pointer, set up teammates with good looks and don't make too many mistakes and he'll be an All-Big East player—and that's probably the bare minimum of what he's capable of doing. Brunson might make as much of an impact this year as Duke's Tyus Jones made in winning the 2015 national championship.
Recruiting rankings courtesy of 247Sports.
Kerry Miller covers college basketball for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @kerrancejames.
.png?w=480 "NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament Championship")
.jpg?w=600 "Colts Release Kenny Moore")
