Liver's 2009 NFL Week Four Picks

I’m no Sam “Ace” Rothstein but the Liver has had a good last couple of weeks against the spread.  I should just quit while I’m ahead but that’s like asking Fletch if he wants Beluga caviar at $80 a portion or Angelo Pappas how many meatball sandwiches he wants. Make that two. Coincidentally, the Liver is taking TWO double digit home favorites to cover this weekend.

If I can keep this pace up then I really will be a Master Control Program-ish 68.71% right.

Can we just eradicate Twitter for athletes? Has ANYTHING good happened? If it isn’t Shaq tweeting during a game, you have Larry Fitzgerald’s younger brother mouthing off that big brother isn’t getting the ball enough, Texas Tech players mouthing off about Mike Leach or Rodney Harrison, who’s a model citizen as we all know, calling T.O. “a clown.”

Gotta love this comeback; T.O. responds with “Anybody that’s using steroids…yes steroids…Rodney is a cheater and cheated the game. You’re a loser and a cheater.” Why don’t you just call his momma a whore while you’re at it?

Now if T.O. and Rodney actually got into the octagon; that’s something that the Liver would watch and not care who won. Just the fact that those two pieces of shit would get the hell beat out of them would be enough for me.

Of course it goes without saying that the following picks AGAINST THE SPREAD are for RECREATIONAL USE ONLY. Only Rick Pitino, LeGarrette Blount, Donte’ Stallworth, Tila Tequila, Isiah Thomas, Travis Henry, Serena Williams, Michael Jordan, Tony Romo, the Liver’s biological father (a.k.a. The Most Interesting Man in the World) and all Somali Pirates would be drunk enough to question the Esteemed Liver's picks.

Last week’s record: 13-3

2009 record against the spread: 32-15-1

Sunday, October 4

Baltimore at New England (-2)
Definitely one of the must-watch games of the week. New England rebounded last week with a solid win over a good Falcons team. They’ll need to be perfect to beat the Ravens. Their running game won’t have an easy time; the Ravens have the best run defense in the NFL.  Their defense must contain the Ravens run game and make life miserable for Joe Flacco. And the offensive line must protect Mr. GQ QB because the Ravens defense will be duplicating what their old defensive coordinator Rex Ryan did two weeks ago; sick the dogs on Brady and beat the hell out of him. Who would’ve thought the Ravens would be leading the AFC in scoring at this point? Joe Flacco continues to get better and right now this Ravens team is better then this Patriots team on both sides of the ball. Pick: Baltimore

Oakland at Houston (-9 ½)
The Texans are the dictionary definition of inconsistency. They win one week, they lose the next week. Luckily they have JaMarcus Russell and the Raiders coming into town. The Raiders have a SLIGHTLY improved defense but they need a QB.  Their passing average is an NFL worst 119.7 yards per game. Why is JaMarcus Russell allowed to play? I think his place on the top 5 list of worst number one overall picks in NFL history becomes cemented firmly with each game. The Raiders offense would be better off with Darren McFadden taking direct snaps in the Wildcat. Yet Al Davis continues to live and with every heartbeat sink this franchise deeper into the shit house. Pick: Oakland

Cincinnati at Cleveland (+5 ½)
Hard to believe the Bengals are a fluky 87-yard TD away from being undefeated. This is the best they’ve looked since winning the AFC North in 2005. Kudos to former Cowboys defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer who’s getting the most out of his defense in Cincinnati. I apologize to the St. Louis Rams. Cleveland has wrestled away the “Worst Team in the NFL” trophy from them. Next to the Raiders they have the worst passing average in the NFL with 146.7 yards per game. Throwing Derek Anderson in as QB isn’t going to matter and it could be a while before this team wins a game. You know Brady Quinn sucks when you win the starting QB job by coming off the bench and throwing 3 INTs in one half. Make that two teams now that Eric Mangini has alienated and pissed off. You’d almost be tempted to think, like Mr. Miyagi, that the Browns’ problem is “attitude.” But, as is often the case, it’s more of Daniel Larusso’s “No the problem is I’m getting my ass kicked every other day, that’s the problem.” Pick: Cincinnati

Detroit at Chicago (-10)
Looks like the Lions have a winning streak going. It won’t be the last game they win this season either. Detroit has some real weapons on offense now and will continue to get better.  The defense is what will take a few years worth of shrewd drafting to fix. Detroit and shrewd drafting in the same sentence? Oh yeah; Matt Millen is stealing money now as an “analyst” for ESPN’s Monday Night Countdown. With his proven track record of winning, why wouldn’t people line up to hear his revelations on the sport? Chicago simply can’t afford to lose this game. Not with the NFC North shaping up to be a dogfight amongst the Bears, Packers and Vikings. Look for their pass rush to get to Matt Stafford often and force him into some bad throws.

Jay Cutler has improved steadily since his toilet-worthy performance in Week 1. Yet, I still can’t figure out if the Bears are a good or bad team. Both of their wins have come because of faulty opposing field goal kickers. You can only win so many of those games. That’s the thing about kickers though; they’re just like women. They make you cry AND cost you money. You kind of wish you could rid the world of them but then how would you play the game? These are the philosophical/borderline Zen topics that occupy the Liver’s mind. Pick: Detroit

N.Y. Giants at Kansas City (+9)
The Giants are rolling right now, despite injuries on defense, and are the best in the NFC for now. Kansas City is still searching for an identity and they’re not likely to find it against N.Y. Pick: Giants

Tennessee at Jacksonville (+3)
I knew Tennessee wouldn’t be as good as their 13-3 record from last season but 0-3 I did not see. Is it fair to call Tennessee the best 0-3 team? All three were winnable games but their offense, defense and special teams have come up short in make-or-break moments during those games. Jacksonville saved face by beating Houston last week but, much like the Texans, lacks consistency. How Jack Del Rio has a job in this league is beyond mystifying. Pick: Titans

Tampa Bay at Washington (-7)
How about you call me when this disaster ends? Look for Jim Zorn to be passing out resumes at halftime. Now I know why Jon Gruden seems so happy on Monday Night Football. The Bucs did him a favor by firing him. About the only intrigue in this game will be how rookie QB Josh Johnson performs in his first outing for the Bucs. See Raheem Morris; firing your offensive coordinator a week before the season starts does have its benefits. Benefits being that you suck so bad you HAVE to yank Byron Leftwich and get on with the obligatory “rebuilding” phase with a rookie QB. You almost want to go up to both coaches and ask Gale Snoats-style; "Say, who wears the pants around here, H.I.?"  Pick: Tampa Bay

Seattle at Indianapolis (-10 ½)
This could get ugly early. With the rash of injuries Seattle has had to endure on defense and offense, it’s impossible to see them keeping up with a Colts offense that is doing what it always does under Peyton Manning; score and score often. Then again, the Colts have their own injuries on defense as Bob Sanders hasn’t stepped on a field yet this season and Dwight Freeney is out 2-3 weeks. Pick: Indy

N.Y. Jets at New Orleans (-6 ½)
Another must-watch game this weekend as the 3-0 Jets and 3-0 Saints knock heads. The Saints offense will see its first real challenge in Rex Ryan’s punishing defense while Mark Sanchez will see plenty of blitz packages dialed up by the Saints defensive coordinator Gregg Williams. The Jets, much like their coach, talk a LOT of trash. If they somehow pull off the upset here, expect those mouths along with the even bigger mouths of their fans to go into overdrive. That’s why I’m preying that they get a reality check so those brakes can be ever so subtly tapped. Sanchez is the first NFL rookie QB EVER to start 3-0. Hard to believe, but true. He still has yet to make a big play late in a game when it counts. He’ll be 3-1 after today. Pick: New Orleans

Buffalo at Miami (+2)
The rebuilding process is officially on in Miami as Chad Pennington is gone for the season and Chad Henne and Tyler Thigpen take over at QB. Think there might be some Tired Cat plays in this one? Bills fans are learning quickly why Jerry Jones showed T.O the door over the off season. Over his last 23 games, he’s averaging 4 passes a game for less than 50 yards. His 185-game reception streak ended last week and you could just hear the glee in the media’s voices as they blatantly tried to bait him during the post-game press conference. It’s just going to get worse as the season goes on. Sooner or later, the guy is going to freak out. He's the human sports embodiment of the old "Scorpion and the Frog" fable. Just like the scorpion, it's his nature. Meanwhile Dick Jauron quietly works on his resume. Pick: Buffalo

Dallas at Denver (+3)
Denver is a deceptive 3-0 with a fluke win over the Bengals and wins over the Browns and Raiders. Do they play pro football in Cleveland and Oakland anymore? The easy part of the season is over though for the Broncos. Yes, they still have three wins coming up with two games against Kansas City and one left with Oakland. But they also have games with New England, two against San Diego and one with Pittsburgh coming up.

Tony Romo rebounded from his pathetic Sunday night performance against the Giants with a turnover free game against the Panthers Monday night. The defense actually found its pulse in the second half against the Panthers and shut them done although the Panthers seem to be good at doing that by themselves. It only took the Cowboys defense 9 ½ quarters to get their first turnover courtesy of a Jake Delhomme pick by Mike Jenkins in the second quarter of the game. They also had their first three sacks, another INT which ended up being a pick-six by Terence Newman that ended the game late in the fourth quarter, and a fumble recovery. So now EVERY team in the NFL now has a sack and a takeaway.

The Cowboys running game is the best in football but injuries are already becoming a factor. Felix Jones, who is quickly gaining a reputation as injury-prone, is out for this game. Jones is a game-breaker and the Cowboys will miss his presence. Marion Barber, also coming off an injury that kept him out of the Monday night game, and Tashard Choice will have to shoulder the load on the ground.

The run defense for the Cowboys has been quite effective the last two weeks.  The leaky Cowboys secondary, however, is going to have to keep the Denver big plays to a minimum. Terence Newman was effective in shutting down Carolina’s Steve Smith, unlike the Giants’ Steve Smith, and will likely be asked to do the same against Brandon Marshall. The Cowboys defensive line will have to make life miserable for Kyle Orton much like they did for Jake Delhomme if they expect to win.

By the way, is there a more worthless player in the NFL then Bobby Carpenter? He can’t even play special teams. I guess chalk that one up to another great Bill Parcells FIRST ROUND draft pick.  If anyone can think of another player that fits that description, let me know. If Wade Phillips had any balls he’d go Sergeant Hartman on his ass and Bobby would be Gomer Pyle (pre-soap bar beating.) Can’t you just see it; "Oh that’s right, Private Pyle (I mean Bobby), don’t make any fucking effort to get to the top of the fucking obstacle. If God would have wanted you up there he would have miracled your ass up there by now, wouldn’t he?" Pick: Dallas

St. Louis at San Francisco (-10)
Another NFC West match-up anyone? Didn’t think so. San Francisco is going to have to learn how to adjust without Frank Gore for a few weeks but the defense should handle things with ease against a poor Rams team that will throw out either Marc Bulger or Kyle Boller. That’s like Ace Rothstein telling one of the cheaters he’s caught passing signals at the Tangiers after having his buddy’s right hand smashed with a hammer; “All right, I’m gonna give you a choice. You can either have the money and the hammer or you can just walk out of here.” Looks like this shit division is the 49’rs to lose with the Cardinals showing the signs of the Super Bowl loser jinx and a relatively easy schedule coming up. Pick: San Francisco

San Diego at Pittsburgh (-6 ½)
The Sunday night game features two AFC teams that were considered Super Bowl worthy who have looked anything but so far. The Chargers have lost to the only good team they’ve played so far (Baltimore) and have had to claw out victories against the Raiders and Dolphins who are a combined 1-5. And Norv Turner is still their coach.

Pittsburgh still has problems generating a run game, being able to stop an opposing one and protecting their QB. They might have found a temporary solution going against a poor Chargers run defense. It isn’t often that you can point to one player having such a significant effect on one side of the ball for a team but Troy Polamalu is that kind of player on the defensive side for the Steelers. This is a desperation game for the Steelers who MUST win this game or they could wind up 2-3 games behind in the AFC North division race with Baltimore looking unbeatable and the Bengals looking much improved. Pick: San Diego

Monday, October 5

Green Bay at Minnesota (-3 ½)
The Brett Favre Bowl Part I is upon us. Can you hear that smacking sound? That’s ESPN licking its lips over the ratings they’re going to get for this game. Anybody want to take odds on the over/under of how many times we’ll be subjected to replays of Favre’s last second TD throw from last week? Seriously, who ISN’T going to be watching this game? Look for out of control emotions on both sides as Favre will likely revert to his gun-slinging turnover ways early and the Packers defense throws a couple of late hits on Favre. Watching Brad Childress on the sidelines makes me feel bad for his family, his employers (sort of) and ANYONE that associates with him. Kind of like the Wade Phillips feeling. At least Wade has a hot daughter though it has to be a reverse Buford T. Justice feeling where she’s saying “There’s no way I could have come from your loins.” Pick: Minnesota