UFC 201: Bleacher Report Main Card Staff Predictions
UFC 201 is almost here!
Reigning welterweight champion Robbie Lawler (27-10) risks his belt for the third time when he steps into the cage with Tyron Woodley (15-3) at Philips Arena in Atlanta on Saturday.
Lawler is so game to fight—and, let's be honest, to take punishment—that he always entertains. His bloody brawl with Rory MacDonald in July 2015 even took Fight of the Year honors. Woodley is coming back after 18 months; his last scheduled fight was set for October 2015 against former champion Johny Hendricks, but it fell through when Hendricks ran into weight-cutting issues. Hopefully Woodley is itching to dazzle us.
With the fight between Ian McCall and Justin Scoggins scrapped—also due to problems with weight cutting—the Ryan Benoit vs. Fredy Serrano bout has been promoted to the main card. The lineup is now:
- Robbie Lawler vs. Tyron Woodley
- Rose Namajunas vs. Karolina Kowalkiewicz
- Matt Brown vs. Jake Ellenberger
- Francisco Rivera vs. Erik Perez
- Ryan Benoit vs. Fredy Serrano
Follow me, Craig Amos, Scott Harris, Nathan McCarter and Steven Rondina down the rabbit hole of predictions!
Ryan Benoit vs. Fredy Serrano
1 of 5
Nathan McCarter
As much as I want to pick Serrano just to make a Flintstones joke because his nickname is "Bam Bam," I don't trust the fighter from The Ultimate Fighter: Latin America. At least not this early in his career.
Benoit has fought and beat better fighters. That's good enough for me.
Benoit, TKO, Round 2
Sydnie Jones
Although Serrano lost his first TUF fight via unanimous decision, his victory over Bentley Syler at UFC Fight Night 62 ensured him at least one more UFC bout.
His second fight was short; Yao Zhikui reached to the mat to break his fall as Serrano took him down, and instead he broke his arm in horrific fashion.
As Nathan mentioned, we've seen so little of Serrano that it's hard to make that bet. But you know what, I'm going to. What we've seen from Benoit is a 1-2 UFC record, with his victory a TKO of Sergio Pettis. Neither seems like a sure bet, but Serrano has a KO win to his name, so why not him?
Serrano, TKO, Rd. 3
Craig Amos
As Nathan pointed out, there is a discrepancy between the experience each fighter carries. That edge should help Benoit, who has faced solid competition.
Benoit, unanimous decision
Steven Rondina
I'm willing to go out on a limb here.
Benoit has more fights, obviously, but he hasn't proved himself to be anything more than a regional-level fighter. He's 1-2 in the UFC and took a beating in his one win. Serrano is an unknown commodity, but that's not necessarily a bad thing against a fighter who is one punch away from being 0-3 in the Octagon.
Serrano, unanimous decision
Scott Harris
This was elevated to the main card after Justin Scoggins vs. Ian McCall was canceled after Scoggins encountered weight-cutting issues. And you know what? That shows.
Fighting at bantamweight, Serrano was decisioned in the opening round of The Ultimate Fighter: Latin America. He has heavy hands, but I'll take the more polished competitor in this one.
Benoit, unanimous decision
Francisco Rivera vs. Erik Perez
2 of 5
Nathan McCarter
I have never been high on Perez as a prospect.
Rivera is a better fighter overall. Perez won't be able to do much grappling, and that will leave him open to eating a right hand that puts him into unconsciousness.
Rivera, KO, Rd. 1
Sydnie Jones
Given Rivera's run in the UFC over the last two years and Perez's performances, Rivera seems like a risky choice. Perez's two UFC losses have come at the hands of skilled veterans. The same is generally true for Rivera, but his downward trajectory shows no signs of slowing down.
Perez, unanimous decision
Craig Amos
There have been some tough opponents, memorable moments and near-misses, but Rivera has just one win over his last four fights. Perez, meanwhile, is no longer a top prospect, but he remains a skilled combatant and has the tools to edge out the decision.
Perez, unanimous decision
Steven Rondina
Rivera's loss to Brad Pickett showed his standing. Perez isn't the fighter the UFC was expecting him to be, but his grappling, youth and coaching will carry him to a boring, but decisive, victory.
Perez, unanimous decision
Scott Harris
Perez is good everywhere but great nowhere. Rivera is the hardest non-John Lineker puncher in this division. Combined with takedown defense and cage awareness, the Californian wins the day. Sound the mild upset alarms.
Rivera, unanimous decision
Matt Brown vs. Jake Ellenberger
3 of 5
Nathan McCarter
Ellenberger cannot take much punishment these days, and Brown is a high-pressure fighter. Ellenberger will have to be reduced to being strictly a wrestler, and that tactic will fail. Brown will be able to push the pace and unleash on Ellenberger in the second round. The referee will step in to save a battered Ellenberger.
Brown, TKO, Rd. 2
Sydnie Jones
Remember when Brown went five rounds with Robbie Lawler? He's durable, powerful and aggressive. That's been more than enough to stop Ellenberger, who won't have much for Brown.
Brown, TKO, Rd. 2
Craig Amos
Ellenberger has the perfect style to defeat Brown, but Brown has been that good the past couple of years. Brown will have to be wary of the takedown, but his constant pressure will make Ellenberger fold.
Brown, TKO, Rd. 2
Steven Rondina
Ellenberger has some skills, but his body is spent. Brown will outwork him and either take a handy decision or knock him out in the second half of the fight.
Brown, TKO, Rd. 3
Scott Harris
I don't want to watch this. Ellenberger still looks the part but doesn't act it. Brown's rust-belt muay thai wins the day and gets the popular Midwesterner back in the win column after a tough loss to Demian Maia. But who hasn't had a tough loss to Demian Maia?
Brown, KO, Rd. 1
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Rose Namajunas vs. Karolina Kowalkiewicz
4 of 5
Nathan McCarter
Of all the fights at UFC 201, this is the one that grabs my attention. Namajunas is one of the most interesting fighters on the roster. She has endless potential but often makes in-fight mistakes that cost her. The performance against Tecia Torres earlier in 2016 showed glaring holes that she still needs to fix.
Kowalkiewicz has the style to give Namajunas fits, especially if the American gets frustrated. Namajunas is the better athlete, but a measured approach from Kowalkiewicz is what will be the difference. Kowalkiewicz out-points the youngster and earns a title shot against her fellow Polish strawweight Joanna Jedrzejczyk.
Kowalkiewicz, unanimous decision
Sydnie Jones
Despite Kowalkiewicz's unblemished record, I have more faith in Namajunas' ability, especially after watching her demolish Paige VanZant. While VanZant's skills may still be rough and underdeveloped, Namajunas demonstrated a considerable fight IQ and dogged determination that should serve her similarly here, unless Kowalkiewicz just plays keep-away the whole fight. But Namajunas seems too aggressive for that.
Namajunas, submission, Rd. 2
Craig Amos
I would pick Kowalkiewicz over a few top-10 strawweights, but not this one. It feels like the fighting skills of Namajunas are catching up to her athleticism, and she is rapidly becoming one of the most dangerous fighters in the division. There's upset potential here, but only a little bit.
Namajunas, unanimous decision
Steven Rondina
Kowalkiewicz is a better striker than Namajunas, but Namajunas has the edge in every other situation. Unless Kowalkiewicz can deliver an early knockout, Namajunas will be able to score clinch takedowns and get things done on the ground.
Namajunas, submission, Rd. 2
Scott Harris
High-octane matchup incoming. Namajunas looked terrific in her last fight and should carry that over against the Pole, whose stand-up game will ensure a fun fight but not the victory.
Namajunas, unanimous decision
Robbie Lawler vs. Tyron Woodley
5 of 5
Nathan McCarter
This is a great matchup that is getting a bit lost in the shuffle. Ultimately, I have to side with the champion.
Lawler's ability to go a hard five rounds at a good pace will be the determining factor. Lawler may lose the first and/or second round(s) due to Woodley's wrestling, but he'll begin to take over in the championship rounds. Lawler capitalizes on a tired Woodley with a fourth-round beating that earns a TKO stoppage.
Lawler, TKO, Rd. 4
Sydnie Jones
There's no question Woodley is capable and talented, but as Scott notes below, this is "Robbie Freaking Lawler."
Lawler, despite being 15.5 years into his career, is somehow trucking along like a Honda engine. He must have at least 150,000 miles on him. But I think that, also like Honda engines, he may just go forever.
Realistically, all the damage he takes is going to catch up with him some day, and possibly all at once, but that day doesn't seem likely to be July 30. His durability and enthusiasm for fighting will take him to victory.
Lawler, decision
Craig Amos
Woodley has been hovering around the title picture for a couple of years, but he always felt like a second choice. That's the case even now, as I'm waiting for Lawler vs. Wonderboy. The champ will win and give us that fight, stopping Woodley after a competitive Round 1.
Lawler, TKO, Rd. 3
Steven Rondina
In terms of the pure X's and O's, this is all Lawler. Woodley has been sitting on the bench for 18 months, and Lawler has the skill set to shut down a fighter like him. It's possible Woodley will show something new, and it's possible Lawler is physically spent after seven straight brutal fights...but I'm not betting on it.
Lawler, unanimous decision
Scott Harris
As the don't-sleep-on-Woodley money rolls in, it's important to remember this is Robbie Freaking Lawler. Woodley's power and wrestling cover a multitude of sins, and it's true he could catch the champ with a big shot or—and this is far less likely—wall-and-stall him for 25 minutes.
It's also possible Lawler, after all his recent wars, could come out shot. But until we see otherwise, Woodley is a gasser and Lawler is decidedly not shot.
Lawler, unanimous decision
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