Predicting the 2016-17 Big 12 College Basketball Standings
This can hardly be considered news in the world of college basketball, but the Kansas Jayhawks are our overwhelming favorite to win the Big 12's 2016-17 regular-season title. It would be their 13th title in a row.
Their prolonged dominance is unrivaled in any other male sport since UCLA during the John Wooden era. (But the streak doesn't even hold a candle to what Connecticut has done in women's college hoops for more than two decades.)
The Atlanta Braves won 11 straight NL East titles from 1995-2005, and the New England Patriots have won the AFC East in 12 of the past 13 years. But 12 in a row? In a sport where your entire roster turns over once every four years—if you're lucky? That's just silly, and it should get even more ridiculous this coming season.
But the Jayhawks aren't the only Big 12 team with aspirations of a national championship, as this should remain one of the three best conferences in the country for yet another year.
We scoured the rosters and offseason "transactions" to make an educated guess at each team's primary eight-man rotation and where it will stack up against every other team in the Big 12.
Read on to find out which ones are fighting for a No. 1 seed and which ones might be jostling for position on the bubble.
10. Kansas State Wildcats
1 of 10
2015-16 Season: 17-16 overall, 5-13 in Big 12 (eighth place)
Key Players Lost: Justin Edwards (12.7 PPG), Stephen Hurt (6.4 PPG)
Key Players Added: Dante Williams (RS FR), Xavier Sneed (3-star FR), Cartier Diallo (3-star FR), James Love (3-star FR)
Projected Starters: Wesley Iwundu, Barry Brown, Kamau Stokes, Dean Wade, D.J. Johnson
Top Three Reserves: Carlbe Ervin II, Austin Budke, Williams
It's hard to believe this team was a No. 4 seed in the NCAA tournament just four years ago and the only team in the past eight seasons to finish in a tie with Kansas atop the Big 12 standings. Since that 27-8 (14-4 in Big 12) campaign, the Wildcats have steadily gotten worse, going 10-8, 8-10 and 5-13 in conference play over their last three seasons.
And that free fall might not be over yet.
Since Bruce Weber became the head coach at Kansas State, it has signed just one 4-star recruit—Malek Harris, who was dismissed from the team after a freshman season in which he posted a brutal O-rating of 85.2 and averaged 2.1 points per game.
In each of the past two seasons, its recruiting class has ranked ninth in the Big 12. Even that seems generous this year, as Texas Tech's pair of JUCO studs is somehow ranked behind a Wildcats class with only one top-300 player.
So, what's the plan for replacing the leading scorer (Justin Edwards) and primary big man (Stephen Hurt) on a roster that went 2-15 against NCAA tournament teams last year? It seems like Kansas State will be stuck putting a lot of hope in the development of the 3-star athletes from last year's freshman class, which is far from a sure thing.
Maybe the Wildcats won't slip all the way into last place in the Big 12, but it would take a near-lethal dose of optimism to forecast anything better than last year's eighth-place finish.
9. Oklahoma State Cowboys
2 of 10
2015-16 Season: 12-20 overall, 3-15 in Big 12 (ninth place)
Key Players Lost: Jeff Newberry (10.8 PPG), Chris Olivier (7.8 PPG), Tyree Griffin (5.2 PPG), Joe Burton (4.7 PPG), Anthony Allen (2.9 PPG)
Projected Starters: Jawun Evans, Phil Forte, Jeffrey Carroll, Leyton Hammonds, Mitchell Solomon
Top Three Reserves: Tavarius Shine, Waters, McGriff
In a conference loaded with quality guard play, Oklahoma State might have the best backcourt duo of all—if it's healthy.
Due to a torn ligament in his non-shooting elbow, Phil Forte missed all but three games of what was supposed to be his final season. The Cowboys later lost Jawun Evans for the year to a shoulder injury that necessitated surgery.
Before those issues, though, Forte was one of the better three-point specialists in the country. Evans was having a monster freshman year, including a 42-point game against Oklahoma. If those two players show up in 2016-17, they could be a dominant tandem on par with Tyler Ulis and Jamal Murray at Kentucky this past season.
But for Oklahoma State to do much of anything, that's what needs to happen.
The Cowboys were already minus-40 on the glass last year before losing 7'1" Anthony Allen, 6'8" Chris Olivier and the surprising team leader in rebounds, 6'2" Jeff Newberry. Moreover, they didn't add anyone taller than 6'6" in this year's recruiting class. With Mitchell Solomon (8.1 points and 8.5 rebounds per 40 minutes) the only returning player taller than 6'7" to score more than six points last season, their frontcourt situation could be a disaster.
8. TCU Horned Frogs
3 of 10
2015-16 Season: 12-21 overall, 2-16 in Big 12 (last place)
Key Players Lost: Chauncey Collins (12.3 PPG), Devonta Abron (4.8 PPG)
Key Players Added: Jaylen Fisher (4-star FR), Alex Robinson (Texas A&M transfer—eligible second semester), Kenrich Williams (returning from knee injury), Josh Parrish (3-star FR)
Projected Starters: Fisher, Malique Trent, Brandon Parrish, Vladimir Brodziansky, Karviar Shepherd
Top Three Reserves: Kenrich Williams, Michael Williams, Robinson
This might seem crazy, considering TCU is 8-64 in conference play since joining the Big 12. But hear me out, because I was right about last year's annual major-conference bottom-feeder destined for a breakout year (USC).
Even with leading scorer Chauncey Collins deciding in late May to leave the program to pursue professional opportunities, TCU is undeniably more talented than it was this past season.
Collins is the only member of last year's primary eight-man rotation that won't be returning. The Horned Frogs add a 4-star freshman point guard (Jaylen Fisher), a former 4-star point guard who had a strong freshman season with Texas A&M (Alex Robinson) and one of their most important pieces from the 2014-15 season (Kenrich Williams).
Moreover, they upgraded at coach to Jamie Dixon, who should immediately help fix one of TCU's biggest issues over the past decade: rebounding. During Dixon's time with Pittsburgh, if you didn't crash the glass, you didn't play. There are more than enough capable bodies on this roster for Dixon to keep preaching that message.
It might not be enough to make the NCAA tournament—particularly given the disdain for aggressive nonconference scheduling by both Dixon and TCU in recent years—but this should be the year the Horned Frogs finally get out of the Big 12 basement and make a little bit of noise.
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7. West Virginia Mountaineers
4 of 10
2015-16 Season: 26-9 overall, 13-5 in Big 12 (second place)
Key Players Lost: Jaysean Paige (13.7 PPG), Devin Williams (13.3 PPG), Jonathan Holton (8.9 PPG)
Projected Starters: Jevon Carter, Tarik Phillip, Daxter Miles, Nathan Adrian, Elijah Macon
Top Three Reserves: Esa Ahmad, Teyvon Myers, Konate
Two years ago, West Virginia evolved into "Press Virginia." Despite losing three of the five leading scorers from a team that went 17-16, they exploded for a 25-10 season with relentless defense and offensive rebounding. After a second consecutive strong season in 2015-16, the widely accepted narrative has been that Bob Huggins can win with anyone.
"Two years into the 'Press Virginia' revolution, Bob Huggins' system-driven team feels almost impervious to individual departures," wrote ESPN's Eamonn Brennan in late May, justifying the Mountaineers as his preseason No. 15 team.
But things changed two years ago, when Devin Williams became an unstoppable force and Jonathan Holton and Jaysean Paige transferred into the program. All three ranked top four in points per 40 minutes last season, while Williams and Holton pulled down a combined 28.0 rebounds per 40 minutes.
That rebounding prowess—15.8 offensive rebounds per game and an average rebounding margin of plus-8.6 per game—was just as much a part of West Virginia's recipe for success as its ball-hawking defense. With those pillars in the paint no longer on the roster, the Mountaineers have more questions than answers in the frontcourt.
What's more, Paige was one of their top defenders, tying Tarik Phillip for the team lead in steals per 40 minutes with 2.7 of them. So they might even take a slight step backward in the turnover-forcing department, as well.
They'll still lead the Big 12 in hustle, but unless guys like Elijah Macon and Esa Ahmad take a huge step forward this season, getting to .500 in conference play may be a struggle.
6. Texas Tech Red Raiders
5 of 10
2015-16 Season: 19-13 overall, 9-9 in Big 12 (seventh place)
Key Players Lost: Toddrick Gotcher (10.9 PPG), Devaugntah Williams (10.8 PPG)
Key Players Added: Shadell Millinghaus (JUCO SG), Niem Stevenson (JUCO SG), Anthony Livingston (Arkansas State transfer), Giovanni McLean (Quinnipiac transfer)
Projected Starters: Keenan Evans, Stevenson, Justin Gray, Aaron Ross, Zach Smith
Top Three Reserves: Millinghaus, McLean, Norense Odiase
In his only season as a D-I head coach, Chris Beard took over a 13-18 Arkansas-Little Rock team, infused it with a boatload of transfers and turned it into a 30-5 NCAA tournament second-rounder. Five of the team's nine leading scorers didn't play for the Trojans in 2014-15.
Now in his first season at Texas Tech, Beard is looking to rekindle that fire by bringing in four transfers who performed admirably last year.
Niem Stevenson (24.7 PPG, 6.9 RPG) and Shadell Millinghaus (16.9 PPG, 5.2 RPG) put up monster JUCO numbers, Anthony Livingston averaged a double-double (15.9 PPG, 10.0 RPG) with Arkansas State and Giovanni McLean (12.9 PPG, 4.7 RPG, 3.3 APG) was just about the only thing that kept Quinnipiac from going winless in 2015-16.
If Livingston doesn't pan out, it's no sweat. The Red Raiders bring back four forwards 6'8" or taller who each played significant minutes, so he would just be a bonus in the frontcourt.
But with Toddrick Gotcher and Devaugntah Williams both graduating, Keenan Evans is the only returning guard who put up quality numbers last season—provided you count Justin Gray as a small forward rather than a guard. Thus, Texas Tech needs at least one of those three transfer guards to contribute at a high level in order to even sniff the NCAA tournament field again.
Given Beard's success with transfers last year, it's easy to like his chances of hitting on 33 percent or better this year. And if at least two of the three guards pan out, the Red Raiders might just mess around and finish in the top four in the 2016-17 Big 12 standings.
5. Oklahoma Sooners
6 of 10
2015-16 Season: 29-8 overall, 12-6 in Big 12 (third place)
Key Players Lost: Buddy Hield (25.0 PPG), Isaiah Cousins (12.6 PPG), Ryan Spangler (10.2 PPG), Dinjiyl Walker (3.3 PPG), Akolda Manyang (2.5 PPG)
Key Players Added: Kameron McGusty (4-star FR), Kristian Doolitte (4-star FR), Matt Freeman (3-star FR)
Projected Starters: Jordan Woodard, McGusty, Christian James, Dante Buford, Khadeem Lattin
Top Three Reserves: Doolittle, Jamuni McNeace, Rashard Odomes
Oklahoma has a solid incoming freshmen class, but it doesn't nearly match the outgoing group. It's bad enough that the Sooners lose five of their nine leading scorers. Even worse, one of them is on the list of just 11 players (10 unique players) in the past two decades to score at least 925 points in a single season.
Whether it's Christian James or Kameron McGusty taking over as the full-time shooting guard, replacing Buddy Hield will be impossible.
The question then becomes: How far do the Sooners tumble?
Getting Jordan Woodard back is crucial, as the combo guard shot 45.5 percent from three-point range last season and brings invaluable veteran leadership to an otherwise painfully inexperienced bunch. (Khadeem Lattin is the only other upperclassman in the main rotation, and he's still figuring out how to make an impact on offense.)
The key to everything, though, may be Dante Buford.
A 4-star power forward two years ago, Buford redshirted the 2014-15 season before playing just 12.3 minutes per game last year. He should slot in as the starting 4 alongside Lattin, but his 0.9 box plus/minus was worst among Oklahoma's 10 leaders in minutes played. Unfortunately, the Sooners don't have many other frontcourt options, unless Jamuni McNeace (6.4 points and 7.1 rebounds per 40 minutes) is ready to make one heck of a sophomore-year leap.
If Buford lives up to his potential and gives the Sooners 25-28 quality minutes per game, they should have enough firepower to get back to the NCAA tournament. If he instead struggles in an expanded role while Lattin remains far more valuable on defense than offense, it might be a long year for Oklahoma.
4. Iowa State Cyclones
7 of 10
2015-16 Season: 23-12 overall, 10-8 in Big 12 (tied for fifth place)
Key Players Lost: Georges Niang (20.5 PPG), Abdel Nader (12.9 PPG), Jameel McKay (11.1 PPG), Hallice Cooke (2.6 PPG)
Key Players Added: Merrill Holden (Louisiana Tech transfer), Darrell Bowie (Northern Illinois transfer), Jakolby Long (4-star FR), Donovan Jackson (JUCO PG), Cameron Lard (3-star FR), Solomon Young (3-star FR)
Projected Starters: Monte Morris, Matt Thomas, Deonte Burton, Bowie, Holden
Top Three Reserves: Naz Mitrou-Long, Jakolby Long, Lard
Like Oklahoma, Iowa State loses a ton of crucial pieces, including one of the nation's best veteran scorers (Georges Niang).
But while the Sooners picked up a couple of solid freshmen to help plug the gaps, Steve Prohm went out and really filled his roster's holes, seeing Oklahoma's three freshmen and raising two graduate-transfers and a JUCO transfer.
As a result, Iowa State is going to have one heck of a veteran rotation. Darrell Bowie and Naz-Mitrou Long are both fifth-year seniors while Monte Morris, Matt Thomas, Deonte Burton and Merrill Holden will each enter their fourth and final year of eligibility. Even with the infusion of three freshmen, the Cyclones might lead the nation in average years of experience.
Will there be enough height with all that age, though?
Bowie (6'7") and Holden (6'8") both rebounded relatively well in their former homes, but they'll need to become warriors on the glass this year, as Burton is the only returning Cyclone with a respectable rebounding rate. Even before losing its three leading rebounders, Iowa State was minus-17 in total rebound margin last season.
However, the Cyclones have never been a great rebounding team, instead relying on up-tempo, high-efficiency offense to carry them to a lot of wins. And with four veteran guards who have each had at least one season shooting 40.0 percent or better from three-point range, that should be no different this year.
3. Baylor Bears
8 of 10
2015-16 Season: 22-12 overall, 10-8 in Big 12 (tied for fifth place)
Key Players Lost: Taurean Prince (15.9 PPG), Rico Gathers (11.2 PPG), Lester Medford (6.5 APG)
Key Players Added: Manu Lecomte (Miami transfer), Jo Acuil (heart condition), Wendell Mitchell (RS FR), Mark Vital (4-star FR), Nuni Omot (JUCO SF), Tyson Jolly (3-star FR)
Projected Starters: Ishmail Wainright, Lecomte, Al Freeman, Johnathan Motley, Acuil
Top Three Reserves: Jake Lindsey, T.J. Maston, King McClure
There are five ways for a team to add to its roster: new freshmen, redshirt freshmen, D-I transfer, JUCO transfer or player returning from injury/suspension.
Baylor checks each and every one of those boxes in hopes of replacing its three most important players from last season. And among that throng of incoming players, Manu Lecomte and Jo Acuil figure to be the most crucial, as both should slot into the starting lineup.
Lecomte will be critical in the quest to fill the hole left by Lester Medford's graduation. Lecomte wasn't the primary ball-handler in either of his two seasons with the Hurricanes, but he was a quality combo guard with a solid assist rate and a great three-point stroke (43.4 percent). He'll join Ishmail Wainright and Jake Lindsey in a three-headed conglomerate in which each member may well average at least 3.0 assists per game.
But Acuil is the more indispensable addition to a rotation that lost much of its frontcourt prowess.
Johnathan Motley might be the most valuable big man in the Big 12 this season, but Rico Gathers and Taurean Prince ranked No. 1 and No. 2 on the team in both offensive and defensive rebounds last year. The Bears will need their 7'0" former JUCO star to help make up for those 493 lost rebounds—provided Acuil makes a full recovery from the heart condition that cost him the 2015-16 season.
That's about as much as one can nitpick at this roster, though. When Tyson Jolly is arguably the 12th-best player on your team, you're in great shape. Baylor may take a slight step backward as everyone settles into new roles, but a fourth consecutive season as a No. 6 seed or better in the NCAA tournament is definitely in play.
2. Texas Longhorns
9 of 10
2015-16 Season: 20-13 overall, 11-7 in Big 12 (fourth place)
Key Players Lost: Isaiah Taylor (15.0 PPG), Cameron Ridley (11.1 PPG), Javan Felix (10.7 PPG), Connor Lammert (7.1 PPG), Prince Ibeh (4.1 PPG), Demarcus Holland (3.1 PPG)
Key Players Added: Jarrett Allen (5-star FR), Andrew Jones (4-star FR), James Banks (4-star FR), Jacob Young (4-star FR), Mareik Isom (Arkansas-Little Rock transfer)
Projected Starters: Jones, Eric Davis Jr., Kerwin Roach Jr., Shaquille Cleare, Allen
Top Three Reserves: Tevin Mack, Banks, Young
It's fitting that two of the key reserves for the Longhorns are named Banks and Young, since they'll be banking heavily on young players in 2016-17.
Senior guard Kendal Yancy and graduate-transfer Mareik Isom will sneak their way into the equation to some extent, but our projected primary eight-man rotation for the Longhorns consists of one senior (Shaquille Cleare), three sophomores and four freshmen.
But considering each of the sophomores was a top-60 player in last year's class and this year's class is rated best in the Big 12, that's hardly a death knell. It's just a talking point to keep in mind if and when Texas emerges as a legitimate title contender.
Jarrett Allen will undoubtedly be the most important piece of this puzzle.
His early-June decision to sign with Texas is what vaulted the Longhorns into the projected top 25 and into the conversation for a Big 12 title. The guard play on this roster should be outstanding, but unless you count Danny Newsome (played six minutes), the Longhorns lost every player from last year's team that was 6'9" or taller. James Banks will help fill that void, but with Allen in the fold, Texas' frontcourt might be even better than it was last year.
Look also for Kerwin Roach Jr. to have a breakout sophomore year. Isaiah Taylor, Javan Felix and Eric Davis Jr. limited his playing time, but he was a solid rebounder for his size and the best on-ball defender on the team—a surefire way to win over Shaka Smart.
1. Kansas Jayhawks
10 of 10
2015-16 Season: 33-5 overall, 15-3 in Big 12 (first place)
Key Players Lost: Perry Ellis (16.9 PPG), Wayne Selden (13.8 PPG), Brannen Greene (5.4 PPG), Cheick Diallo (3.0 PPG), Jamari Traylor (2.9 PPG), Hunter Mickelson (2.3 PPG)
Key Players Added: Josh Jackson (5-star FR), Udoka Azubuike (4-star FR), Mitch Lightfoot (4-star FR), Dwight Coleby (Ole Miss transfer)
Projected Starters: Frank Mason, Devonte' Graham, Jackson, Carlton Bragg, Landen Lucas
Top Three Reserves: Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk, Azubuike, Lagerald Vick
What else is new?
Despite losing Perry Ellis and Wayne Selden, the amount of talent on this roster runs circles around the rest of the conference. Svi Mykhailiuk will be a first-round draft pick when he decides to move on to the NBA, but he'll be a reserve at Kansas for a third straight year. Similarly, Lagerald Vick would be the primary scorer on most D-I rosters, but he may have trouble even getting on the court as a sophomore.
Kansas already had one of the nation's best backcourts in Frank Mason and Devonte' Graham. Adding No. 1 overall recruit Josh Jackson to that equation doesn't even seem fair to the rest of the Big 12. And while Carlton Bragg and Landen Lucas don't have much proven experience as frontcourt studs, Bill Self has a full stable of options in Udoka Azubuike, Dwight Coleby and Mitch Lightfoot to help get the job done.
Not only will the Jayhawks win a 13th consecutive regular-season Big 12 title, this year's crown should be one of their most dominant to date. It might not quite match the four-game cushion they had over second place at the end of the 2009-10 season, but they won't face nearly the quality or quantity of challengers that they have over the past few years.
Kansas should also open the season ranked higher in the AP Top 25 since it has been since 2009-10 when it was No. 1 in both the first and last poll of the season. Opening this past season at No. 4 was their highest preseason honor in the 2010s, but the Jayhawks should be either No. 2 or No. 3 this October, battling Villanova for votes behind Duke.
Recruiting rankings courtesy of 247Sports.
Kerry Miller covers college basketball for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @kerrancejames.
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