Matt Brown vs. Jake Ellenberger: A Head-to-Toe Breakdown
UFC 201 takes place in Atlanta on Saturday, and part of the main card action is a thrilling welterweight matchup.
Jake Ellenberger and Matt Brown step inside the Octagon in an attempt to get back in the win column and begin chasing down relevancy in the division. Both men have struggled as of late, but their career paths also feel like they are headed in opposite directions.
Ellenberger has suffered six losses since 2012, and four of those have come by KO/TKO or submission. His stock has dropped considerably over recent years. His long win since 2014 came at UFC 184 against Josh Koscheck. A loss to Brown could signal the end of the road.
As for Brown, he too has struggled but for different reasons. He has fought the elite of the elite in recent fights and come up just short against Johny Hendricks and Robbie Lawler. The only man to finish him in recent times is Demian Maia. Even after going 1-3 in his last four, Brown is still considered one of the best in the world.
The clash is pivotal for both men and will have divisional fallout.
Who can get it done on Saturday? Let's break it down from head-to-toe and find out which welterweight gets their hand raised at UFC 201.
Striking
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In a game of numbers, Brown is the clear cut favorite in the stand-up department.
The statistics, provided by FightMetric, are all in his favor. He throws at a higher output, lands at a better percentage and has better defense. And outside of raw numbers, Brown also has a better chin than Ellenberger as well.
That is not to say Ellenberger doesn't have a chance while standing. His boxing is decent enough, and he has huge power. All it takes is one shot to land clean.
Ellenberger likes to exchange, but it's not going to be his best route to victory against Brown. The Ohioan lives off of making fights a dirty brawl. That's his kind of fight, and when UFC announcer Bruce Buffer calls him a "technical brawler," that is precisely what kind of fighter Brown is.
Brown has the better striking tools between the two, but he'll want to avoid giving Ellenberger the space to uncork a powerful right hand.
Edge: Brown
Grappling
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Brown is a competent wrestler in his own right, but there is little question as to who is the better between the two in this matchup.
Ellenberger brings in one of the better pure wrestling games in the division. Often times, he gets away from it in favor of striking, but it is what he does best.
Also helping his cause is that Brown isn't the greatest at defending takedowns. He isn't a slouch, but he also isn't one of the best in the division. Part of that is due to his style of striking. It allows for his opponents to key off his strikes, change levels and score with an easy takedown.
Ellenberger will have to do just that to take this fight. He needs to time his shots right and slip under the incoming punches to put Brown on his back. Ellenberger will be very successful if his striking defense is on point.
Edge: Ellenberger
Submissions
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It may be easy to say not to expect a submission, but with these two, you never know what to expect on the ground.
Both men have underrated submission abilities, and both scored tapout victories in 2015.
Ellenberger often works from top position due to his wrestling, but he typically just controls position and throws ground and pound. Brown is the fighter who more actively seeks submissions, and that's why he gets the edge.
Brown brings more variety in with his jiu-jitsu. He has a good guillotine and an active guard. He'll try to avoid being pinned on his back, but watch for him to attack with triangles and armbars from bottom if the fight goes there. Activity and variety is where Brown separates himself from Ellenberger.
Edge: Brown
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X-Factors
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Brown's X-Factor: Making it Dirty
This is almost a standard X-Factor for Matt Brown fights. He won't want to get into a technical striking bout with anyone, nor will he play the pure wrestling game. He has to muddy the waters.
In this matchup more so than others, Brown must find a way to do just that.
If he can get this to the fence to utilize his dirty boxing, Brown will put it on Ellenberger. He will dominate while using punches, elbows and knees in the clinch. That's easier said than done with a better wrestler, but he can find small pockets of time to turn it on and take the fight.
Ellenberger's X-Factor: What's Left in the Tank?
Ellenberger, at one point, was a top tier welterweight prospect. He had the potential to become champion, or at the very least challenge for the gold. He never realized that potential.
He has fought a who's who in the welterweight division. Truthfully, fans often forget how many upper echelon fighter he has fought. Unfortunately for Ellenberger, one of the reasons they forget is that he has lost the vast majority of those fights.
He is 1-4 in his last five outings which includes being finished by Stephen Thompson, Kelvin Gastelum and Robbie Lawler. The beatings have taken their toll, and that begs the question of what he has left in the tank. Brown is a good test to answer that on Saturday.
Prediction
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Ask me to answer this question at the beginning of 2013, and I'll tell you Ellenberger dominates the fight. He had everything going for him back then, but time has moved on and past him.
Ellenberger won't be able to keep up with the ferocious pace that Brown sets, and the accumulation of punishment both in the fight itself and what he has taken throughout his career will catch up to him. Brown's output is the major difference.
Even if Ellenberger can score an early takedown, he won't be able to keep Brown down for long.
In 2016, Brown is the more equipped fighter in the matchup. The "technical brawling" that he is known for will light Ellenberger up and cause the referee to step in to stop the fight. When Brown is peeled off Ellenberger you may want to look away as there'll most definitely be blood and disfigurement.
Prediction: Matt Brown defeats Jake Ellenberger by TKO in the second round
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