Robbie Lawler vs. Tyron Woodley: A Head-to-Toe Breakdown
Robbie Lawler will defend his welterweight title against No. 1 contender Tyron Woodley as the main event of UFC 201 on Saturday.
The bout marks the third time Lawler will defend his strap since capturing the title from Johny Hendricks back in December 2014. Since that time, Lawler has bested Rory MacDonald in an instant classic and edged out a hotly contested decision over Carlos Condit.
Lawler's continued success puts him on course to meet Woodley, who has hovered on the periphery of the welterweight title picture since he joined the UFC in 2013. The challenger's opportunity comes after winning four of five contests. Most recently, Woodley eked out a decision over fellow contender Kelvin Gastelum.
So how will the title fight play out?
We'll break down the matchup, see who has the edge where and examine how the contest might ultimately pan out.
Striking
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Lawler's career renaissance was not brought about by some major stylistic alteration. Lawler has always been a striker. His championship run has simply been a more successful manifestation of the sprawl-and-brawl tactics he prefers.
Though Woodley is more inclined toward the takedown than the champ is, the challenger is hardly uncomfortable on his feet. Woodley's growth in this arena is demonstrated by his ability to secure four of his last five wins without scoring a single takedown.
In fact, Woodley is the more accurate striker of the two. According to FightMetric, he lands 50 percent of his strikes to Lawler's 44. Defensively, Lawler holds a slight edge, avoiding 62 percent of incoming attacks to Woodley's 58.
Those numbers paint a fairly even picture, but they fail to account for some advantages that lie with the champion. Lawler hits harder and is more active, traits reflected by juxtaposing his 20 career knockouts to Woodley's five. He's also more durable, as highlighted by comebacks against MacDonald and Condit.
Edge: Lawler
Grappling
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Just like striking, the grappling domain appears surprisingly close when we look at the numbers.
FightMetric shows that Lawler is successful on 68 percent of his takedowns, while Woodley completes just 44 percent of his attempts. Defensively, Lawler has been serviceable, defending 67 percent of his opponent's takedowns, while Woodley has been stalwart, stifling 91 percent.
It would be surprising if Lawler tried to take Woodley down (and equally so if he succeeded) given his advantage on the feet. But the element of surprise is precisely why Lawler has been more successful with his takedowns than Woodley. The champ executes a takedown less than once per 15-minute fight, whereas Woodley is more active, completing nearly two over that same period.
Despite the success rates, Woodley has the edge here. He's been working against wary opponents while still finding some success.
The question is whether Woodley's edge is significant enough to impact the fight in any major way. He hasn't relied on wrestling as much as he once did, and Lawler has done well preventing past foes from accumulating points on the mat.
The edge plays out for Woodley on paper, but it might not be as apparent in the Octagon.
Edge: Woodley
Submissions
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Submissions are Lawler's kryptonite—or, rather, they used to be. The champion has been submitted five times in his career, but not since 2011 against Ronaldo Souza.
Part of Lawler's submission defense is his solid sprawl and get-up skills, which help keep him out of dicey situations. Offensively, Lawler has little use of submissions; only one of his 27 career wins has come via the tap.
Woodley is only a little more active when looking for the submission. He won his first five career bouts by making his opponents tap, but he has not notched a single submission over his last 13 outings. That's partly due to an uptick in competition, but it also derives from an apparent change in philosophy. As FightMetric notes, Woodley attempts just one submission per 30 minutes of Octagon time.
There is no reason to question where the edge lies here—clearly, it lies with Woodley. But there is cause to be skeptical about whether submissions will be present enough to count for much in this fight. Neither man is inclined to seek the submission, and neither man makes it easy for his opponent.
Edge: Woodley
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X-Factors
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Woodley's X-Factor: Longevity
Woodley is a fast-starter. He's 8-0 in fights that end in Round 1 and 2-0 in fights that end in Round 2. In fights that make it to Round 3, Woodley is just 5-3.
Given that Lawler is a difficult guy to put away, Woodley cannot count on winning the fight just by bursting out of the gates.
Compounding this issue is Woodley's lack of experience in the championship rounds. He's made it there only once and was quickly knocked out by Nate Marquardt.
Woodley's absence of late-round experience and tendency to fade are big obstacles to his success. He'll need to conserve his energy and remain focused throughout the entire contest. If he is unable do that, victory becomes entirely about the early finish, and that's a low-percentage game against such a durable foe.
Lawler's X-Factor: The Start
The antithesis to Woodley, Lawler has the habit of starting slow. It helps that he's more inclined to drop points than suffer stoppages, but it's still an issue.
Against a fast-starter like Woodley, he'll need to stifle the early onslaught. His experience and durability should help him through, but the opening round will be the most dangerous for the champion.
After five minutes, the fight becomes increasingly safe.
Prediction
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Over his last three fights, Lawler has defeated Hendricks, MacDonald and Condit. Even though Woodley owns a win over Condit, you could make a case that all three of those welterweights pose a greater threat to Lawler's title than Woodley.
Looked at another way, however, Lawler won a decision over Hendricks that most in the media disagreed with, pulled off an unlikely comeback against MacDonald and then notched another dubious decision against Condit. So while Woodley will enter the contest as the underdog, we are not dealing with an inevitable result.
Yet Woodley will have to overcome the stylistic issues of Lawler's solid defensive wrestling and superior striking. He'll also need to stay strong for longer than we're used to seeing him.
For Lawler, it's about settling in and avoiding the early blitzes from Woodley. If he manages that—and his ability and experience should allow him to do so—he'll be just fine.
Prediction: Lawler def. Woodley, TKO, Rd. 3
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