Best- and Worst-Case 2016-17 Scenarios for Each Top 25 College Basketball Team
Whether you view the glass as half-empty or half-full, you're in the right place, as we've compiled both the best and worst-case scenarios for every projected top-25 college basketball team for the 2016-17 season.
Before reading any further, be sure to note there is an implied "realistically predictable" for each scenario. Every team thinks it can win the title. Every team wants to avoid a rash of catastrophic injuries or vacate every win due to a yet-uncovered scandal. No one wants to read 25 slides about either of those potential outcomes.
Rather, these are primarily minor things that could have major consequences.
Let's use Oklahoma as an example, as the Sooners would have been No. 26 in our rankings. Their best-case scenario might be Khadeem Lattin blossoming into a legitimate offensive weapon, while a worst-case scenario could be Jordan Woodard taking a big step backward after becoming the primary focus for opposing defenses.
You could easily imagine better or worse scenarios for Oklahoma, but rationalizing more drastic deviations from expectations isn't easy or often possible.
Teams on the following slides are listed in ascending order of overall seed from our June projection of the 2017 NCAA tournament field, which was compiled shortly after Jordan Mathews transferred out of California.
25. Creighton Bluejays
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Best-Case Scenario: Bluejays lead nation in assist percentage.
Creighton was fueled by Doug McDermott in the early 2010s, but equally important to its cause was sharing the rock. With Grant Gibbs and Austin Chatman predominantly leading, the Bluejays ranked top 10 in the nation in assist rate in three consecutive seasons from 2012-14. Sure, assists came easy with McDermott making everything and Ethan Wragge raining threes at an equally absurd rate, but passing had as much to do with Creighton's world-class offensive efficiency as its shooting.
With Marcus Foster joining Mo Watson (6.5 assists per game last season) in the backcourt this year, the Bluejays should get back to racking up assists in their sleep, opening up the floor for Cole Huff, Isaiah Zierden and Justin Patton to go to work.
Worst-Case Scenario: Foster clashes with another coach and keeps Creighton from fulfilling its potential.
Foster's exit from Kansas State was decidedly less than amicable. After a dynamite freshman season and a strong start to his sophomore year, things suddenly went off the rails. Following a poor performance against Georgia, Foster was benched for the Big 12 opener and held scoreless. Later in the season, he was suspended three games for an undisclosed violation of team rules. He played poorly after being reinstated and was dismissed from the team two weeks after the 2014-15 season ended.
Foster wasn't alone in Bruce Weber's doghouse, though, as four other Wildcats transferred out of the program that summer. Hopefully a change of scenery was exactly what he needed to get back to playing like he did in his first year of college hoops, but we'll see how he fits in with Creighton's chemistry.
24. Dayton Flyers
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Best-Case Scenario: Charles Cooke becomes Delon Wright 2.0.
Delon Wright was a little-known transfer to Utah before the 2013-14 season. He played well in his first year on a team that exceeded expectations, but it wasn't until after the season ended that people seemed to realize just how much he had done for the Utes, ranking first or second on the team in points, rebounds, assists, blocks and steals. Over the course of the seven-month offseason, he evolved from an overlooked player into one of the leading candidates for the Wooden Award.
Flash-forward two years and Dayton's Charles Cooke is in a similar situation. The James Madison transfer led the Flyers in points and rebounds and ranked top three in assists, blocks and steals. His versatility was crucial on an undersized roster that got even shorter this offseason. Cooke's ability to fill up the box score on both ends of the floor could make him a fringe candidate for National Player of the Year awards.
Worst-Case Scenario: Size kills this vertically challenged team.
Led by Dyshawn Pierre and Steve McElvene, Dayton was one of the country's best defensive-rebounding teams in the country in 2015-16. But Pierre graduated and McElvene died tragically, leaving Cooke, 6'6" Kendall Pollard and 6'7" Bradley transfer Josh Cunningham as the best options to clean up the glass—unless Kostas Antetokounmpo is ready to deliver from day one as a freshman.
For an average three-point shooting team—only Cooke (39.6) and Scoochie Smith (38.2) shot 35 percent or better last year—being average in the blocks and rebounds departments isn't much of an option. The Flyers will need to play taller than they are in order to have any hope of winning the A-10.
23. Connecticut Huskies
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Best-Case Scenario: Amida Brimah finally has that breakout season.
Amida Brimah has been one of the country's best paint protectors. In each of the past three seasons, he has blocked at least one out of every seven opposing two-point attempts while on the court. An injury kept him from playing enough minutes to qualify among the national leaders as a junior, but he would have led the country in block percentage last year after ranking in the top five in both his freshman and sophomore years.
But save for one incredible 40-point performance against Coppin State in December 2014, Brimah has never been much of a scorer, despite a career field-goal percentage of 66.2. With Daniel Hamilton, Sterling Gibbs and Shonn Miller all leaving the program, though, Brimah is arguably Connecticut's second-best returning scoring option. Could he have the type of senior-year explosion Syracuse's Rakeem Christmas experienced two years ago?
Worst-Case Scenario: Too much turnover results in a roster that never jells.
In total, the Huskies lose six of the 11 players who logged at least 20 minutes last season, leaving behind a potential star in Rodney Purvis, a point guard who didn't shoot well and struggled with turnovers (Jalen Adams) and a trio of forwards who seemed to do everything in their power to not shoot during their limited time on the court (Brimah, Kentan Facey and Steven Enoch).
It's a weird combination requiring an infusion from the likes of VCU transfer Terry Larrier and the country's eighth-best recruiting class. But the Huskies had the 11th-best class in 2009 and seventh-best class in 2006 before missing both of those NCAA tournaments.
And with the exception of Syracuse (which barely sneaked in) and Kansas (which always wins the Big 12), every team with a recruiting class in the Nos. 5-16 range last season missed the tournament. Freshmen can be great, but they aren't always the immediate answer.
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22. Clemson Tigers
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Best-Case Scenario: All three incoming transfers pan out.
Since Terrell McIntyre graduated in 1999, stars have been few and far between for Clemson. Trevor Booker had a strong four-year run, and K.J. McDaniels developed rapidly throughout his three seasons with the Tigers, but that's been about it since the turn of the millennium.
Until now, that is, because Jaron Blossomgame is a stud. Even in a conference jam-packed with talent, he should be a preseason first-team All-ACC selection in a couple of months. He just needs more of a supporting cast to work with, which Marcquise Reed, Shelton Mitchell and Elijah Thomas (in the second semester) will ideally give him.
If each of those transfers is able to provide some value this season, Clemson—which has never won more than 26 games in a season or reached a Final Four—could have its best year in school history.
Worst-Case Scenario: Sidy Djitte struggles in expanded role; Tigers flounder early.
The Tigers recently announced their nonconference schedule, which leaves much to be desired. Outside of the Puerto Rico Tip-Off—where they could potentially pick up tournament resume-boosting wins over Davidson, Xavier and Oklahoma—it doesn't get much better than a few games against marginally better-than-average SEC teams (Alabama, Georgia and South Carolina).
In other words, it's more a sea of land mines than opportunities, where a couple of disappointing performances could haunt them all the way through to Selection Sunday. And with Landry Nnoko graduating and Texas A&M transfer Elijah Thomas not eligible until near the end of that slate, Sidy Djitte should be Clemson's primary center for most of those games.
The big man played well in limited minutes (15.1 per game) last season, averaging 14.0 points and 13.9 rebounds per 40 minutes. However, fouls have plagued him throughout his three seasons, and few players can be counted on to double their per-game numbers simply by doubling their minutes. If he lays an egg as a starter, Clemson might not be able to recover.
21. Butler Bulldogs
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Best-Case Scenario: Tyler Lewis realizes his potential.
Despite being rated a top-50 recruit in the class of 2012, Tyler Lewis has never gotten much of a chance to shine. As a freshman with NC State, the point guard was buried behind Lorenzo Brown and Rodney Purvis on the backcourt depth chart. After that duo left, LSU transfer Ralston Turner, JUCO transfer Desmond Lee and freshman Cat Barber all got more minutes than Lewis did in 2013-14. And after transferring to Butler and sitting out a season, seniors Kellen Dunham and Roosevelt Jones kept him from making much of an impact.
But even with the additions of Memphis transfer Avery Woodson and George Washington transfer Kethan Savage, this year's Bulldogs should finally be Lewis' team to run. If he responds by playing like the highly regarded recruit he was four years ago, Butler could challenge Xavier and Villanova for the Big East title.
Worst-Case Scenario: Losing Roosevelt Jones proves to be too much.
For a guy who could not shoot a jumper, Jones did an awful lot for the Bulldogs. It's no coincidence Butler's worst season in more than a decade came when Jones was out for the entire year with torn ligaments in his wrist. Last year, he led the team in both assists and steals by a wide margin and ranked second in rebounds. Even if Lewis steps up to replace his passing, Jones' presence will be missed on both ends of the floor.
Toss in the departure of their primary three-point shooter in each of the past three seasons (Dunham) and the Bulldogs have a lot of holes to plug with transfers or freshmen. Lewis, Woodson and Savage will each need to play well just to make up for everything lost.
20. Saint Mary's Gaels
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Best-Case Scenario: Last undefeated team standing.
Saint Mary's has not yet announced its nonconference schedule, but it's never much to write home about. A road game against California this past December, a home game against Louisiana Tech to open the 2013-14 season and a BracketBusters (remember that awesome annual event?) game against Creighton in February 2013 represent the Gaels' only nonconference games against KenPom.com Top 40 teams in the past four years.
Should Saint Mary's assemble yet another pupu platter of games for the first seven weeks of the 2016-17 season, it ought to get at least to its first showdown with Gonzaga without suffering a loss. The Gaels were already one of the country's better teams last year—certainly one of the best to get snubbed from the NCAA tournament—and bring back all but one scarcely used transfer (Franklin Porter) from that team.
Worst-Case Scenario: Lose all three games against Gonzaga and enter Selection Sunday with yet another resume devoid of quality wins.
Again, we don't yet know who Saint Mary's will face in nonconference play—save for a season-opening home game against Nevada and a date-to-be-determined home game against San Jose State, according to Jon Rothstein of CBS Sports. The Gaels might get a home game against California in return for last year's trip to Berkeley, but that has not yet been confirmed. Regardless, we're not expecting a murderer's row.
So what happens if they get swept by Gonzaga, including the WCC Championship Game? Even if they go 28-3 with nothing better than a home win over Nevada and a pair of wins over BYU, would their RPI and SOS be strong enough for a bid?
19. Louisville Cardinals
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Best-Case Scenario: 2015 recruiting class has a collective breakout party.
With three 4-star, top-50 recruits, Louisville had one of the country's best freshman classes last season. But behind Damion Lee, Trey Lewis, Chinanu Onuaku and Quentin Snider, not one member of that young trio managed to play so much as 20 minutes per game.
But that's about to change in a big way with Donovan Mitchell and Raymond Spalding all but guaranteed to start and Deng Adel either starting at small forward ahead of V.J. King or serving as the first frontcourt reserve off the bench. Mitchell and Spalding played well in their limited minutes and should be headed for solid years. If Adel can cut down on his turnover rate (one for every 10 minutes on the court last season), he will also be one of the most important assets for the Cardinals.
Worst-Case Scenario: We haven't heard the last of Louisville's prostitution scandal.
There are plenty of on-court nightmare scenarios in play here. First and foremost among them are Mitchell shooting 25.0 percent from three-point range for a second straight year, Mangok Mathiang's broken foot continuing to cause problems for Louisville's presumed starting center or King failing to live up to his 5-star rating.
But the real worst-case scenario for Louisville would be more distraction or punishment surrounding the recruiting scandal that broke last October and resulted in the Cardinals self-imposing a ban from postseason play in 2015-16—and that more quietly led Louisville's president (James Ramsey) to resign in late June.
North Carolina made it to the championship game this past March, surviving the season without any fallout from its "paper-classes" scandal. The Cardinals will be hoping for a similar campaign devoid of off-court drama, but we won't know until the end of the season if they'll actually get their wish.
18. Rhode Island Rams
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Best-Case Scenario: All six primary players appear in every game.
Rhode Island entered the 2015-16 season with potentially one of the country's best starting fives. But the Rams had very little depth and had to cross their fingers for a healthy season.
That dream died in a hurry when E.C. Matthews was lost to a torn ACL just 10 minutes into the first game. Moreover, starting center Hassan Martin missed six games, starting power forward Kuran Iverson missed four games, starting point guard Jarvis Garrett missed a game and seventh man Christion Thompson missed three games. Rhode Island's basketball team was a walking hospital ward.
Yet, last year's projected starting five remains intact with Indiana transfer Stanford Robinson joining the Rams to likely become the primary sixth man. It's still a short rotation, but with considerably better luck in the health department, Rhode Island should win the A-10.
Worst-Case Scenario: Matthews' return throws off the team balance.
Two years ago, Matthews was the man for the Rams. He averaged more than 13 field-goal attempts per game and shot more than twice as many three-pointers as his closest teammate. He also averaged 3.6 turnovers per game, far too often taking it upon himself to get the job done.
Without him around last season, Jared Terrell and Garrett stepped up admirably as the leading scorers of a team that didn't have an alpha dog.
Rhode Island only went 17-15, but 11 of those losses came by a margin of six points or fewer. In the proper dosage, Matthews could give the Rams the necessary boost to turn those close losses into wins. But if Matthews over-asserts himself, it could mess up the chemistry and make this team even worse.
17. Baylor Bears
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Best-Case Scenario: Jo Acuil becomes this year's breakout JUCO transfer.
There's always one. Last year, it was Oregon's Chris Boucher. Ole Miss struck gold in both 2012 and 2014 with Marshall Henderson and Stefan Moody, respectively. And Delon Wright was one of the best JUCO transfers ever, joining Utah before the 2013-14 season.
If Jo Acuil fully recovers from the heart condition that cost him the 2015-16 season, he could be the JUCO transfer who takes over D-I ball in 2016-17. He averaged 20.1 points, 11.2 rebounds and 4.7 blocks per game two years ago at Neosho County Community College in Chanute, Kansas, and could be one of the Big 12's, if not the entire country's, three best big men.
Worst-Case Scenario: Baylor's point guard by committee goes up in flames.
With Lester Medford out of the picture, Ish Wainright, Jake Lindsey and Miami transfer Manu Lecomte will each be in the running for primary ball-handling duties. Lindsey is arguably the favorite based on assist rate, but no one stands out as the clear starting point guard. And with Al Freeman, King McClure and freshman Tyson Jolly also deserving of playing time, the Bears have a bit of a backcourt logjam.
Will one player emerge as the clear starter, or will they take more of a platoons approach at the point?
Unfortunately, Baylor does not have the luxury of using the first few weeks of the season to figure things out against cupcakes. Within the first 23 days, the Bears will host Oregon, Xavier and Florida Gulf Coast while also participating in the Battle 4 Atlantis, which begins with a game against VCU—never a fun opponent to face with uncertainties at point guard—before potentially yielding Michigan State and/or Louisville.
16. Texas Longhorns
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Best-Case Scenario: Talent trumps inexperience.
Few lost more this offseason than the Texas Longhorns. In addition to five seniors who ranked in the top eight in minutes played per game in 2015-16, leading scorer Isaiah Taylor declared for the draft. That leaves now-sophomores Kerwin Roach Jr., Eric Davis Jr. and Tevin Mack on the short list of returning impact players.
Fortunately, Shaka Smart builds on last year's 17th-best recruiting class with the fifth-best class this year. The June signing of stud big man Jarrett Allen propelled the Longhorns from the NCAA tournament bubble to a spot comfortably inside the projected top 25. The talent is young—Texas might not start a single junior or senior—but there's plenty of it for this team to do some serious damage.
Worst-Case Scenario: Inexperience outweighs talent.
Roach, Davis and Mack were solid off the bench, but they started a combined two games last season. At least two of them will be starters this year, alongside freshmen Andrew Jones and Allen. Look for freshmen James Banks and Jacob Young to play significant minutes, as well.
That's an awful lot of pressure on not many years of experience. Duke and Kentucky have been annually succeeding with 18- and 19-year-olds, but they've also had veteran leaders on each of those teams. The one exception to that rule was Kentucky in 2013-14, and that team didn't start consistently playing well until the SEC tournament.
Texas does have upperclassmen in Shaquille Cleare, Kendal Yancy and Arkansas-Little Rock transfer Mareik Isom, but the underclassmen are the bread and butter on this roster. Whether they can avoid the mental errors and lapses in poise often associated with their inexperience will determine what the Longhorns can do.
15. Xavier Musketeers
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Best-Case Scenario: Rashid Gaston makes everyone forget about Jalen Reynolds and James Farr.
Xavier's biggest edge last season was rebounding margin. According to Sports-Reference.com's game logs, when Xavier was plus-four or better on the glass, it went 21-0 with an average margin of victory of 16.7 points. When plus-three or worse, though, the Musketeers went 7-6 and were outscored 1003-997 in those 13 games.
James Farr (15.2 rebounds per 40 minutes) and Jalen Reynolds (13.2) were the anchors of that assault on the glass, but neither one will be with the program in 2016-17. Thus it will largely fall on the shoulders of Norfolk State transfer Rashid Gaston to fill that need. In his final season with the Spartans, he averaged 30.7 minutes per game and 12.5 rebounds per 40 minutes. If that translates to big numbers against Big East foes, Xavier could be headed for another No. 2 seed in the NCAA tournament.
Worst-Case Scenario: Legal issues derail a promising season.
Both J.P. Macura and Myles Davis are projected starters for the Musketeers and have both had run-ins with the law already this offseason.
Less than two weeks after Xavier's season ended, Macura was arrested for partying too hard with a fake ID, according to the Cincinnati Enquirer. More recently, the Cincinnati Enquirer also reported Davis was issued a protective order to stay away from a former girlfriend after allegedly damaging her cell phone and threatening her.
Our guess is that Macura won't face any sort of suspension from the team, provided he gets through the next four months without any other incidents, but Davis could face up to six months in prison. If either one misses any games, it could be a big blow for a team that already lost five of last year's 11 leading scorers.
14. Indiana Hoosiers
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Best-Case Scenario: Juwan Morgan plays a full, healthy season.
To say the least, Juwan Morgan's freshman year was not free of pain. A leg injury kept him out of four games in the first month of the season, while he spent the second half of the season playing with a left shoulder that popped out of place with increasing frequency. That recurring injury stemmed from a separated shoulder suffered in high school that required surgery earlier this offseason.
Despite the agony and the unavoidable fear of more in the immediate future, Morgan put up solid numbers. With Max Bielfeldt graduating and Troy Williams declaring for the draft, Indiana has an opening for a stretch 4. If he fully recovers from the surgery, Morgan just might start at power forward and become one heck of an asset on defense and a fifth option on offense.
Worst-Case Scenario: Thomas Bryant has a sophomore slump.
There's plenty of room for growth in Thomas Bryant's numbers. He only averaged 22.6 minutes, 11.9 points and 5.8 rebounds per game as a freshman. Bryant also shot 5-of-15 from three-point range with more than half of those attempts coming in the final eight games, so that could be something he continues to add to his bag of tricks in 2016-17.
But there's also the possibility he becomes less efficient in a bigger role. Bryant shot 70.7 percent from inside the arc with the luxury of Yogi Ferrell, Bielfeldt and Williams to draw the attention of opposing defenses. The Hoosiers still have a few dynamite scorers in James Blackmon and Robert Johnson, but there's little doubt they'll be calling Bryant's number more often in the year ahead. Their season could unravel if he's unable to consistently answer that call.
13. Purdue Boilermakers
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Best-Case Scenario: Carsen Edwards comes in and steals the show, like Syracuse's Tyler Ennis in 2013-14.
Though Rapheal Davis and Johnny Hill played quality defense and P.J. Thompson had the third-highest O-rating in the nation, guard play was Purdue's biggest weakness last season.
It was an issue that reared its ugly head in the NCAA tournament, as that trio combined for 17 points, seven assists and eight turnovers in the double-overtime loss to Arkansas-Little Rock. When A.J. Hammons didn't feel like single-handedly taking over a game or possession, the Boilermakers simply didn't have the playmaking guards to steer the ship.
Enter: Carsen Edwards. Though not even a top-100 recruit in this year's class, Edwards has major star potential. It was on display when he dropped 50 points in a February game for Atascocita High School in Texas—which spent most of the season ranked in the top five nationally, alongside annual powerhouses like Oak Hill Academy in Virginia and Findlay College Prep in Nevada.
Worst-Case Scenario: Caleb Swanigan becomes even less efficient.
Most of Caleb Swanigan's numbers from last season look great. He averaged 15.9 points, 12.9 rebounds and 2.8 assists per 40 minutes. But he forced a few too many three-pointers (29.2 percent) and committed far too many turnovers (4.1 per 40 minutes).
As a result, Swanigan had the worst O-rating among Purdue's 10 regulars and finished the season with a negative offensive box plus/minus—meaning he was costing the team points on offense by being on the court.
At times, he was unstoppable. Swanigan had 27 points on seven field-goal attempts with eight rebounds and just one turnover in the regular-season finale against Wisconsin. More games like that and he'll be a Wooden Award candidate. But if Hammons graduating leads to Swanigan pushing the issue even more recklessly in 2016-17, that could spell trouble for the Boilermakers.
12. Gonzaga Bulldogs
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Best Case Scenario: Zags have the best collection of transfers.
Gonzaga made waves earlier this offseason with the addition of California graduate-transfer Jordan Matthews, but let's not forget the collection of players the Zags already had sitting out the season after transferring last summer.
Washington transfer Nigel Williams-Goss should be a backcourt star alongside Mathews and Josh Perkins, while Missouri transfer Johnathan Williams III will likely start in the frontcourt with Przemek Karnowski—who might as well be considered a transfer after appearing in just five games last year. Add in Rice transfer Jeremy Jones and the Bulldogs could just about field an entire lineup of transfers. Not much is expected from Jones, but Mathews, Williams and Williams-Goss should be studs.
Worst Case Scenario: Zags have too much talent; players transfer midseason.
Mark Few put together one of the country's best recruiting classes...and he doesn't need any of it.
With Perkins, Williams-Goss, Mathews, Williams and Karnowski as the projected starters and Silas Melson, Ryan Edwards, Bryan Alberts and Jones available as reserves, where does the quintet of freshmen fit in? Considering Mathews and Karnowski the only members of that group running out of eligibility in 2017 and Jesse Wade and Corey Kispert have already signed on to join the team for 2017-18, it's not like the guys in this year's class will be guaranteed a job two years from now, either.
Rather than a question of "if," it seems like more a question of "when" and "how many" players will opt to take their talents elsewhere, and how it might affect the balance of the team.
11. Michigan State Spartans
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Best-Case Scenario: Eron Harris makes a leap, becomes next player in long line of senior leaders for the Spartans.
The year is 2006-07. That's the last time Michigan State didn't have at least one senior among its four leading scorers in a season. In what cannot possibly be a coincidence, it was also one of the most disappointing seasons the Spartans have had under Tom Izzo, going 23-12 and failing to spend a single week in the AP Top 25.
Gavin Schilling, Alvin Ellis and UNLV transfer Ben Carter are all technically candidates to keep that streak of senior leadership going for another year, but Eron Harris is the clear favorite for the job. The fourth-leading scorer from a roster that lost every other player in the top six in that category, Harris could be just as crucial to this year's team as Denzel Valentine was in 2015-16.
If Harris responds with the type of senior-year explosion that Travis Trice had two years ago in more than doubling his junior-year scoring average, the Spartans would likely enter the NCAA tournament for a second straight season as one of the favorites to win it all.
Worst-Case Scenario: One or more of the freshman studs turns out to be a dud.
To make up for all the players lost, Michigan State has four incoming top-50 recruits, including a pair of 5-star athletes. If they all live up to the hype, the Spartans will be nearly unstoppable.
But nothing is guaranteed when it comes to projecting high school talent. Just last season, top 25 recruits Skal Labissiere, Cheick Diallo, Malik Newman, Isaiah Briscoe, Derryck Thornton, Chase Jeter, Jalen Adams, Carlton Bragg and PJ Dozier each disappointed to some extent.
The success rate on 5-star players is usually higher than that, but it also wasn't hard to put together this list from last summer of the 20 biggest 5-star busts of the past decade. If Michigan State got one or more of those guys who don't contribute like they're supposed to, it could be a rare difficult season in East Lansing.
10. Wisconsin Badgers
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Best-Case Scenario: Nigel Hayes bounces back after season-long funk.
Though he led the Badgers in points and assists, Nigel Hayes had a rough junior year. He shot just 40.0 percent inside the arc and 29.3 percent beyond it while averaging 2.3 turnovers per game. Hayes had a good run early in conference play that helped Wisconsin bounce back from its 9-9 start, but he had a brutal finish to the year, shooting 28.7 percent from the field over his final 10 games.
This came in stark contrast to the previous season, when he was one of the biggest catalysts of Wisconsin's 10-0 record in March and its run to the national championship game. If senior-year Hayes plays more like sophomore-year Hayes, the Badgers could be headed for their third Final Four appearance in four years.
Worst-Case Scenario: Hayes remains inefficient, while Ethan Happ comes back to earth.
Redshirt freshmen aren't supposed to be nearly as good as Ethan Happ was last season. While Hayes stumbled to the finish line, Happ was still heating up, averaging 14.5 points, 7.8 rebounds, 2.3 steals and 1.5 assists over his final 10 games. In NCAA tournament wins over Pittsburgh and Xavier, he was the star on both ends of the court.
The Badgers likely would not have even made the tournament without him, and they would be in some trouble if he has a sophomore slump. (Unless, of course, Andy Van Vliet turns out to be another redshirt freshman ready to dominate in the paint from day one.)
9. UCLA Bruins
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Best-Case Scenario: Lonzo Ball is the country's best point guard.
There are quite a few incredible point guards in this year's batch of freshmen. The Markelle Fultz hype train gained even more steam as he was recently named the MVP of the U18 FIBA Americas Championship. There's also Kentucky's De'Aaron Fox and NC State's Dennis Smith rated by 247Sports in the top seven of all incoming freshmen.
But Lonzo Ball is the highest-rated point guard on that list and could be the country's best player at the position in 2016-17, regardless of age. His impeccable court vision, versatility and ability to hit the outside jumper will elicit comparisons to D'Angelo Russell. If he can consistently harness that talent, the Bruins could have the nation's most high-powered offense.
Worst-Case Scenario: Returning players struggle to adjust to new roles.
When Duke added Tyus Jones two years ago, we wondered how it would affect the chemistry of a team that already had Quinn Cook and Rasheed Sulaimon as the established guards. Cook had been the primary ball-handler the previous two years, and no one knew how he would handle handing that job over to a freshman. He did great as the primary shooting guard, but it knocked Sulaimon to the bench before his midseason dismissal from the team.
UCLA is now in a similar predicament. Bryce Alford and Isaac Hamilton have each started every game of the past two seasons at point guard and shooting guard, respectively, but both seniors will be changing roles to make room for Ball—much to the chagrin of Aaron Holiday, who has virtually no hope of starting after doing so in every game as a freshman.
Winning cures most ills, but if the Bruins struggle once again this season, guys like Holiday, Prince Ali and Jonah Bolden may transfer elsewhere or otherwise become distractions.
8. Virginia Cavaliers
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Best-Case Scenario: Austin Nichols becomes even more of a stud in Virginia's defensive-minded system.
Memphis has been solid on defense for more than a decade, but the Tigers can't even hold a candle to Virginia's defense, which has ranked top five in the nation in adjusted efficiency in each of the past three years. Memphis transfer Austin Nichols averaged 4.7 blocks per 40 minutes in his final season under Josh Pastner and will provide the Cavaliers with a shot-blocking phenom who has not yet been a part of Tony Bennett's arsenal.
With Mike Tobey and Anthony Gill both graduating, Nichols should immediately become Virginia's primary interior weapon on both ends of the court—which will work out swimmingly for the Cavaliers if he's as impenetrable as he was two years ago.
Worst-Case Scenario: Difficulty replacing Malcolm Brogdon results in weaker perimeter defense; London Perrantes pushing the issue on offense.
Though Nichols and Isaiah Wilkins will make life a nightmare for anyone who tries to score in the paint against Virginia, moving on without elite defender Malcolm Brogdon could be a challenge.
Even if the pack-line defense survives his graduation, Virginia will certainly miss Brogdon's offense. He attempted nearly 200 more shots than his closest teammate while also averaging better than 3.0 assists per game. London Perrantes shot 48.8 percent from three-point range last season, but he only took eight total shots per game, and most of those were wide-open looks because the defense was focused elsewhere.
If Perrantes reverts to his sophomore-year numbers (31.6 percent from three-point range) while becoming a more assertive shooter, Virginia could be headed for a repeat of 2011-12. That year, the Cavaliers' adjusted defensive efficiency ranked sixth in the nation, but they merely earned a No. 10 seed in the NCAA tournament because their adjusted offensive efficiency was only marginally better than the national average.
7. Arizona Wildcats
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Best-Case Scenario: Wildcats have the most dominant slashing backcourt ever.
Few guards build up a head of steam on the way to the hoop quite like Kadeem Allen and Allonzo Trier, and that duo will be accompanied by Rawle Alkins this year, who fits that same mold. Following in the footsteps of Mark Lyons, Nick Johnson and Stanley Johnson, that trio will give Arizona three triple-threat guards and one of the most versatile offensive attacks ever assembled.
Early in the 2015-16 season—following its win over Duke in the Champions Classic—many thought Kentucky was going to reign supreme with its three-headed backcourt. But Isaiah Briscoe faded and Skal Labissiere never showed up as the Wildcats earned a No. 4 seed in the tourney. If these Wildcats can get solid production from all three guards (and Kobi Simmons, for that matter) while getting better results from their 5-star big man (Lauri Markkanen), they'll be one of the country's best teams.
Worst-Case Scenario: Ray Smith struggles in return from torn ACL; frontcourt flounders.
A 5-star forward in last year's class, Ray Smith is one of the big reasons we're buying stock in the Wildcats as a title contender. If fully recovered from the knee injury that cost him the 2015-16 season, he should start at the 4 and serve as one of Arizona's primary scorers.
But power forward is where this team has the least amount of depth. If Smith comes back as far less of a stud than he was supposed to be, that puts more pressure on guys like Markkanen and Dusan Ristic to carry the load. Moreover, without a dominant power forward, that slashing backcourt becomes less effective against defenses more willing and able to rotate to clog the paint.
It's hard to imagine Arizona missing the 2017 NCAA tournament with this much talent, but an uninspiring year from Smith could keep the Wildcats out of the hunt for the Pac-12 title.
6. Kentucky Wildcats
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Best-Case Scenario: Isaiah Briscoe figures out how to shoot, while Bam Adebayo lives up to the hype.
At 13.5 percent from three-point range and 46.0 percent from the free-throw line, Isaiah Briscoe had a disastrous shooting year. Marquette's Derrick Wilson was the only other guard in the past three seasons to score at least 150 points while shooting worse than 15 percent from three and worse than 50 percent from the charity stripe.
We're not asking for 40 and 85 percent, respectively, but if Briscoe could at least become a viable threat more than five feet from the rim, that's a huge boost for Kentucky's offense. And if Briscoe becomes that type of weapon, while Bam Adebayo becomes a double-double machine in the frontcourt, Kentucky will earn its fourth No. 1 seed under John Calipari.
Worst-Case Scenario: Either De'Aaron Fox or Malik Monk struggles as a freshman.
As previously noted on Michigan State's slide, 5-star freshmen don't always dominate. Just in Kentucky's recent past, see Briscoe, Skal Labissiere, Andrew Harrison and Archie Goodwin for proof of that. So even though most sites have both De'Aaron Fox and Malik Monk projected as first-rounders in the 2017 NBA draft, there's always a chance that either one fails to meet expectations.
Should that happen, what's plan B? Jamal Murray and Tyler Ulis both left for the draft, while Charles Matthews transferred to Michigan. Aside from Briscoe, Dominique Hawkins and Mychal Mulder are the best backcourt options off the bench, and they scored a combined 73 points last season. One doesn't suit up for Kentucky without a lot of basketball talent, but it would be far from ideal if poor play by a starter forces either of those guys to play significant minutes.
5. North Carolina Tar Heels
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Best-Case Scenario: Isaiah Hicks thrives in a full-time job.
There was no better frontcourt player in the country in 2015-16 than North Carolina's Brice Johnson. Heck, KenPom.com's metrics suggest there was no better player at any position. Filling his shoes while also replacing Marcus Paige will not be easy.
Fortunately, the Tar Heels still have a pair of players who competed in the 2013 McDonald's All-American Game. Kennedy Meeks has been a key piece of the rotation since his freshman year, but Isaiah Hicks should be a full-time starter for the first time in his collegiate career.
In limited minutes, Hicks has been one of North Carolina's better weapons in recent years. He's an excellent offensive rebounder who scores efficiently, draws contact and is a more-than-adequate defender. If that translates in twice as much playing time, there might not be a weakness in this lineup.
Worst-Case Scenario: Justin Jackson and Theo Pinson continue shooting poorly.
Justin Jackson was the No. 9 overall player in the class of 2014 with Theo Pinson close behind at No. 15. The duo figures to start at shooting guard and small forward, serving as two of the primary perimeter weapons for the Tar Heels.
But with Pinson a career 28.4 percent three-point shooter and Jackson only marginally better at 29.7 percent, that could be a problem.
When North Carolina failed to meet expectations in 2014 and 2015, it was at least partially because Paige was its only legitimate threat from three-point range. If neither Jackson nor Pinson improves, the Tar Heels will be in a similar predicament with Joel Berry II as their only shooter.
4. Oregon Ducks
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Best-Case Scenario: Dylan Ennis plays like he did two years ago.
Dylan Ennis was supposed to be a big piece of Oregon's puzzle last season after graduate-transferring in from Villanova. As a junior, he shot 36.3 percent from downtown while averaging 9.9 points, 3.7 rebounds and 3.5 assists per game.
However, a foot injury limited him to just three games before seeking (and receiving) a medical-hardship waiver for another year. If healthy, Ennis, Tyler Dorsey and Dillon Brooks would make a great Swiss army knife-backcourt to go along with uber-versatile big man Chris Boucher.
Worst-Case Scenario: Dillon Brooks' foot injury becomes a stress fracture.
We tried to avoid listing injury concerns as worst-case scenarios because it's the lazy answer. Any knucklehead can tell you, losing a key player to an injury would be a bad thing. But the foot injury Brooks is dealing with is recent news that could turn into a major issue, considering Brooks is on our short list of serious candidates for the 2017 Wooden Award.
According to Steve Mims of the Register-Guard, head coach Dana Altman said of Brooks on July 19, "He has had a problem with his foot so we have held him out (of summer workouts.) He is still under evaluation to see what the next step is." And according to Yahoo Sports' Jeff Eisenberg, Oregon officials described the injury as "a hot spot that could develop into a stress fracture."
Brooks averaged 16.7 points, 5.4 rebounds and 3.1 assists per game last season. When he opted to put off the NBA for another year, Oregon became one of the top contenders for the 2017 title. If he ends up missing part of the season after all, the Ducks would slide down near the bottom of the preseason top 25.
3. Villanova Wildcats
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Best-Case Scenario: First back-to-back champs in a decade.
If listing an injury as a worst-case scenario is lazy, putting "win the national championship" as a best-case scenario is even lazier. But for a team looking to repeat as champs, that's where the bar will undoubtedly be set.
As I researched early in the 2014-15 season, the average national champion since 1999 loses roughly 3.5 of its top six players and almost always loses the most indispensable piece of its championship roster. The one exception to the rule was when Florida won back-to-back titles in 2006-07 with all of its key players returning.
The Wildcats only lost two players (Ryan Arcidiacono and Daniel Ochefu) and retain their leader in win shares (Josh Hart), so they're in better shape than most reigning champs. If Omari Spellman hits the ground running as a freshman, they could be even better than they were last year.
Worst-Case Scenario: Kris Jenkins struggles from beyond the arc while shooting like there's no tomorrow.
After being named the Most Outstanding Player of the 2013 NCAA tournament by shooting a combined 8-of-10 from three-point range in the Final Four and title games, Luke Hancock returned to Louisville as one of its most important pieces, revered as a three-point assassin. The 6'6" stretch 4 averaged 9.2 three-point attempts per game as a senior, but he connected on just 34.5 percent of them.
Kris Jenkins wasn't the Most Outstanding Player this past April (Arcidiacono received that title), but the 6'6" stretch 4 hit the most memorable shot in at least two decades of NCAA tournaments. He was red-hot from beyond the arc during the second half of his junior season and is expected by most to remain a cold-blooded sniper as a senior.
But with so much talent on this roster—Fordham transfer Eric Paschall might be the eighth-best player on the team—the last thing Villanova needs is someone who jacks up threes every time he gets an inch of space, particularly if he's only going to make 35 percent of them.
2. Kansas Jayhawks
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Best-Case Scenario: Flawless Big 12 season.
In most seasons there's at least one team that's supposed to give Kansas a run for its money for the Big 12 title. Oklahoma State in Marcus Smart's sophomore year, Texas with Myles Turner and both Iowa State and Oklahoma this past season are recent examples of teams that were given a chance of ending the Jayhawks streak of Big 12 titles.
It never happened, though, and unless you're guzzling the Texas or Baylor kool-aid, there isn't even a strong candidate to get the job done this year. Kansas was the favorite to win the conference even before signing the No. 1 overall player in this year's recruiting class (Josh Jackson). That just cemented the deal.
But in the process of winning 12 consecutive Big 12 titles, the Jayhawks have yet to go undefeated in conference play and only once (in 2009-10) got through that gauntlet with just one loss. In fact, if you include the conference tournament, Kansas hasn't gotten through a season without losing to at least one conference opponent since 1971. Might the Jayhawks finally break that "slump"?
Worst-Case Scenario: Landen Lucas regresses, and Carlton Bragg struggles in a full-time role.
For the first time in a long time, Perry Ellis isn't walking through that door. And with Cheick Diallo declaring for the draft and Hunter Mickelson and Jamari Traylor both graduating, Kansas is going to have a lot of new faces in its frontcourt equation, including Ole Miss transfer Dwight Coleby.
The key will be getting production from Landen Lucas similar to the second half of last season, while Carlton Bragg delivers on his 5-star rating from last year. But if Lucas drops off as the primary frontcourt weapon, while Bragg remains a turnover-prone, foul-committing machine as a sophomore, Kansas will have a lot of trouble with teams like Baylor and Texas that have strong frontcourts.
1. Duke Blue Devils
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Best-Case Scenario: 40-0.
Go ahead and make your "The ACC is too loaded for anyone to run the table" retorts, but the fact of the matter is, Duke's talent runs laps around even the best competition this year.
As such, perfection is the goal, and the quest will be officially underway if the Blue Devils can beat Kansas on Nov. 15. Aside from a home game against a young Michigan State team as part of the ACC/B1G Challenge, there's not much else on their nonconference schedule. As always, they'll play North Carolina twice in conference play, but they only face Virginia, Louisville and Clemson once each.
Stay focused and avoid major injuries and Duke could win every game it plays this season.
Worst-Case Scenario: Harry Giles and Amile Jefferson both play at less than 100 percent due to injuries suffered in 2015.
Duke has elite guards on top of elite guards. Frank Jackson, Grayson Allen and Jayson Tatum will likely start with Matt Jones and Luke Kennard coming off the bench. Most coaches would give anything to have Jones and Kennard as their starting backcourt, but Mike Krzyzewski will need to get creative just to give those guys enough minutes.
But if there's any weakness on this roster, it's frontcourt depth, given the injury history of a couple of the key pieces. Getting a commitment from 5-star big man Marques Bolden in late May was one heck of an insurance policy, but both Harry Giles and Amile Jefferson underwent surgery for lower-body injuries suffered last November/December. And for Giles, it was the second major knee injury he has suffered, which is when the red flags come out in earnest.
Even if Giles and Jefferson were to miss the entire season, the Blue Devils could put Tatum at the 4, start Bolden at center, use Chase Jeter, Sean Obi and Javin DeLaurier off the bench and still compete for a national championship. But their chances of going undefeated would drop considerably if either Giles or Jefferson misses significant time.
Stats courtesy of KenPom.com and Sports-Reference.com. Recruit rankings and info courtesy of 247Sports.
Kerry Miller covers college basketball for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @kerrancejames.
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