Felice Herrig vs. Kailin Curran: A Head-to-Toe Breakdown
UFC on Fox 20 kicks off the main card with a strawweight contest pitting a veteran against an up-and-coming prospect.
Felice Herrig (10-6) has been around the game for a long time with mixed results, and after more than a year away from the cage, she is set to return on Saturday. Standing opposite her will be 25-year-old Kailin Curran (4-2).
Herrig has not been in action since dropping a fight against Paige VanZant in April 2015. Curran also shares a loss to VanZant but has been more active with two fights since Herrig's last outing. Curran got back in the win column with a win over Emily Kagan in December.
The fight could be Herrig's last attempt to move herself into prime position of the growing strawweight division, or it could be the stage to announce Curran as yet another top prospect with a bright future. It is a matchup with significant implications for the story of their respective careers.
Who will get the better of the stand-up? Who can finish with a submission? Those questions are answered along with who walks out of Chicago with their hand raised as we break down the action from head-to-toe.
Striking
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If you were to look at the FightMetric statistics, you would be a little misled. The numbers largely favor Curran. She has higher significant-strikes-landed-per-minute average and a better defensive percentage.
However, it's Herrig who has the edge on the feet. FightMetric only takes into account the stats from their UFC contests. Thus, the data is a bit skewed at this juncture.
Herrig is a more experienced striker, and her jab will help her lead the way. It will be increasingly important in this matchup as Curran earns her strikes by pressuring her opponents. Herrig's stinging jab can stifle an oncoming Curran.
Curran is not out of her league while standing. She merely lacks the experience and control that Herrig has developed. Curran still has the ability to work inside and overwhelm Herrig with the accumulation of strikes. That is a distinct possibility, but it does not make her the better pure striker.
If the fight becomes a kickboxing contest, Herrig will outpoint Curran.
Edge: Herrig
Grappling
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Both women work well enough in the clinch, but Curran's clinch work is more predicated on grappling. Herrig's focus is on utilizing her knees to out-strike her opponent.
Curran also works her striking in the clinch, but she actively looks for takedowns. Curran will be more apt to establish position against the fence than Herrig.
The Hawaiian averages more than three takedowns per fight (per FightMetric) while Herrig has only defended 50 percent of takedown attempts in the UFC. Two of those takedowns were from Lisa Ellis, who was an undersized strawweight and who Curran is a substantially better grappler than.
Herrig's grappling will be all but defensive in this matchup, and her defensive skills are simply not good enough to get the edge.
Edge: Curran
Submissions
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While Herrig may not be the better grappler, she does have better submission capabilities.
She isn't a slouch on the mat, but Curran's top game will be difficult to overcome. Curran's ability to control from the top could give her more chances to look for a submission, but that is not what she is best at doing. Curran prefers to ground-and-pound.
Herrig is active off her back, and that activity could render Curran less effective as she defends submission attempts.
Don't get too hopeful this one will be finished with a tap, but if it does, the odds are in favor of Herrig being the one to finish via submission.
Edge: Herrig
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X-Factors
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Curran's X-Factor: Improvement
Curran entered the UFC as one of the brightest prospects at strawweight, but an early loss to Paige VanZant followed by an upset win for Alex Chambers put her on the back burner.
She has continued to improve and showed better skills this past December against Emily Kagan.
Herrig is a quality opponent for where she is in her career, and it will push her to use all of her skills. If she has plateaued, the end result will be another loss. This fight is all about how much Curren has developed as a fighter.
Herrig's X-Factor: Controlling the Pace
Curran's high output and pressure are keys to her winning the fight, and Herrig cannot let her dictate the pace of the fight.
If she allows Curran to move her to the fence and pile up punches, the judges will almost certainly reward her with a sweeping victory. Herrig will have to utilize her superior striking to slow down Curran. Limiting Curran to single shots tips the balance of the fight in her favor.
The one who can determine the pace of the fight will win.
Prediction
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I will side with the budding prospect in this matchup.
Herrig doesn't handle high-pressure fighters well, and that is what Curran does best. Herrig got out-paced by VanZant, Tecia Torres and Carla Esparza. All losses.
Curran will do well enough with her boxing to get inside. Herrig will be backpedaling the majority of the fight. It won't look good in front of the judges, and it won't allow her the opportunities to employ her strategy. Curran comes forward for 15 minutes, scores a few takedowns and out-paces her en route to a clear decision.
The victory reestablishes Curran as a notable prospect in the division.
The final tally will be a clean sweep of 30-27 on all the judges' scorecards with Curran getting the win in the opening main card contest at UFC on Fox 20.
Prediction: Curran defeats Herrig by unanimous decision
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