NCAA Basketball Teams Who Will Be Over-Reliant on One Player in 2016-17
Dedric Lawson wears No. 1 for the Memphis Tigers, and considering how much that team lost this offseason due to graduations and transfers, it will often feel like Lawson is their one and only option in 2016-17.
Memphis is just one of several teams that figures to be putting all of its hopes and dreams into one player for the upcoming season. If that player leads his team as well as Kemba Walker led Connecticut during the 2011 NCAA tournament, fantastic. But far too often, one-man shows don't even get that opportunity.
Of the teams with players who ranked in the top 25 in the nation in percentage of shots taken while on the court last season, only Iona (Jordan Washington) and Cal St. Bakersfield (Damiyne Durham) made it to the tournament. Neither one won a game nor was even supposed to go dancing, eking by the No. 1 seed in their conference championship game to get the bid.
For every Doug McDermott who carries his team to a great season, there are at least a dozen players who shoot their teams into sub-.500 oblivion.
Though we're not saying that every team on this list is guaranteed to miss the postseason, it might take a few diamonds in the rough to save them from a brutal year.
Honorable Mentions
1 of 10
St. Bonaventure (Jaylen Adams)
Three players averaged better than 16 points per game for the Bonnies last year. Only one of them returns. The Jaylen Adams one-man show should be reminiscent of Jahii Carson's days with Arizona State.
Columbia (Luke Petrasek)
All three of the Lions' leading scorers left, leaving stretch 5 Luke Petrasek as the only returning player who played at least 17 minutes per game last season. He was Columbia's best shot-blocker and most accurate three-point shooter, so keep an eye out for the Ivy League's version of Frank Kaminsky.
Ole Miss (Cullen Neal)
The only player in a new home who was legitimately considered for the list, the former New Mexico Lobo joins an Ole Miss program losing Stefan Moody and three other key contributors. Miami transfer Deandre Burnett might become the primary scorer, but don't be shocked if Cullen Neal steps in and immediately takes the reins.
Stony Brook (Lucas Woodhouse)
In addition to losing arguably the best minor-conference player in the country (Jameel Warney), the Seawolves must also move on without last year's second-leading scorer (Carson Puriefoy), third-leading scorer (Rayshaun McGrew) and head coach. Woodhouse was one of the best shooters and passers on last year's team and is in position to become the go-to guy as a senior.
Texas Southern (Derrick Griffin)
Derrick Griffin had a monster freshman season (13.3 PPG, 11.0 RPG, 2.2 BPG) and is the only returning Tiger who ranked in the top five on the team in scoring last season. He's going to put up absurdly gaudy numbers this year. But we sought to avoid minor-conference situations in which one player legitimately could carry his team to 20 or more wins.
Colorado State Rams: Emmanuel Omogbo
2 of 10
Teammates Lost: Antwan Scott, John Gillon, Joe De Ciman, Tiel Daniels, Fred Richardson III
It's a good thing Gian Clavell's medical hardship waiver was approved, because Colorado State is painfully short-handed—even with him returning for another year.
With John Gillon transferring to Syracuse, the Rams lost four of last year's five leading scorers (total points). Double-double machine Emmanuel Omogbo was the only exception and the only player other than Clavell to average at least 5.0 points per game.
Freshmen Jeremiah Paige and Prentiss Nixon contributed nicely in limited minutes, but those guards do nothing to help Omogbo in the paint. Unless former junior college transfer Kimani Jackson or redshirt freshman Nico Carvacho comes out of nowhere to have a big season, Omogbo is just about the only frontcourt option the Rams have.
Clavell will almost certainly lead the team in scoring. Heck, he'll probably score twice as many points as the runner-up in that category. But Colorado State will need at least 12 rebounds per night from Omogbo just to have a puncher's chance in most games.
George Washington Colonials: Tyler Cavanaugh
3 of 10
Teammates Lost: Patricio Garino, Kevin Larsen, Joe McDonald, Alex Mitola, Paul Jorgensen, Anthony Swan, Matt Cimino
Both in terms of points (22.1) and rebounds (10.0) per 40 minutes, Tyler Cavanaugh was already George Washington's knight in shining armor. He averaged 19.4 points and 9.0 rebounds in leading the Colonials to the NIT title and was named the MVP of the tournament for his efforts.
Frankly, George Washington was too reliant on the former Wake Forest transfer. When GW was making some early noise and even sneaked into the AP Top 25, Cavanaugh rolled an ankle early in the blowout loss to DePaul. Two weeks later, he struggled to get going in a loss to Saint Louis that sealed GW's fate as a team that wouldn't be reappearing in the polls this year. And in the A-10 quarterfinal loss to Saint Joseph's, Cavanaugh fouled out in just 24 minutes of action.
Long story short: When Cavanaugh wasn't at his best, neither were the Colonials.
With five of last year's seven leading scorers leaving the program, they're not about to become any less reliant on Cavanaugh. They do add Harvard transfer Patrick Steeves and Seton Hall transfer Jaren Sina, but those wings do little to help the stretch 4 shoulder the load inside.
Look for Cavanaugh to have a season similar to what Valparaiso's Alec Peters did this past season (18.4 points, 8.4 rebounds, 5.6 three-point attempts per game).
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Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets: Quinton Stephens
4 of 10
Teammates Lost: Marcus Georges-Hunt, Adam Smith, Nick Jacobs, Charles Mitchell, James White
As we'll get to in a couple of slides, Josh Pastner left what could be a difficult rebuilding situation at Memphis.
Well, he inherited another one at Georgia Tech anyway, where all four of last year's leading scorers and a key reserve graduated.
Without any incoming transfers or top 150 recruits, the responsibility for filling those voids will fall almost entirely on the shoulders of returning players like Quinton Stephens.
Among the incumbent Yellow Jackets, Stephens is the leading scorer and the most versatile player. The 6'9" wing-forward played his way into the starting lineup for the final six weeks of the season by entering the month of March shooting 36.1 percent from three-point range and contributing just enough as a rebounder and passer not to be a liability in those departments.
Whether he's ready for the job or not, Stephens should be Georgia Tech's go-to guy in 2016-17.
Don't be surprised when Georgia Tech's NCAA tournament drought extends to a seventh year.
Iowa Hawkeyes: Peter Jok
5 of 10
Teammates Lost: Jarrod Uthoff, Anthony Clemmons, Adam Woodbury, Mike Gesell, Okey Ukah, Andrew Fleming, Brandon Hutton
Over the past couple of seasons, Iowa has been in a constant state of losing a few key players. However, it has been able to tread water and continue making the NCAA tournament. In the past, Iowa typically didn't lose more than two starters at a time and also usually possessed a stable of upperclassmen reserves ready to fill those vacated roles.
That's not the case this year, as the Hawkeyes lose four starters to graduation and will only have two juniors or seniors with more than six games of experience at the D-I level—Peter Jok and Dom Uhl.
Freshmen Nicholas Baer, Ahmad Wagner and Brady Ellingson played well in limited minutes. JUCO transfer Dale Jones had one solid showing against Coppin State before missing the rest of the season with a knee injury. And the Hawkeyes are loaded with incoming freshmen, including 4-star power forward Tyler Cook.
Make no mistake about it, though: This will be the Peter Jok Show.
The 6'6" wing made a big jump this past season, averaging 16.1 points while shooting 40.2 percent from three-point range. He ranked in the top 100 in the country in percentage of shots taken while on the floor, and that was before losing every single teammate who was in the starting lineup. Jok may lead the nation in that category this year.
If Iowa is going to sneak into the tournament yet again this coming March, it will need guys like Uhl and Baer to evolve into legitimate secondary offensive weapons while others fill in the sixth- and seventh-man roles that duo played last season. But if you can bet on whether Jok will lead the Big Ten in scoring or lead the Hawkeyes to the Big Dance, the smart money is on the former.
Memphis Tigers: Dedric Lawson
6 of 10
Teammates Lost: Shaq Goodwin, Ricky Tarrant, Trahson Burrell, Avery Woodson, Kedren Johnson, Dante Scott, Randall Broddie, Chris Hawkins, Raquan Mitchell
Shortly after Memphis hired Tubby Smith as its new head coach, Dedric Lawson tentatively declared for the NBA draft, effectively telling his new coach, "Keep my dad on the coaching staff, or your first season here will be an unmitigated disaster."
The threat worked. Smith kept Keelon Lawson as an assistant coach and Dedric pulled out of the draft, returning to a situation where he is the best player by a country mile.
Lawson already led the Tigers in points and rebounds as a freshman, ranked second in blocks and steals and was third in assists. Take away the 3.2 turnovers per game and 42.2 two-point percentage, and he was one of the most well-rounded players in the entire country.
His return provides a glimmer of hope for a team that loses its second- through fifth-leading scorers this offseason.
Memphis did pick up Coppin State graduate-transfer Christian Kessee (14.6 PPG last season). But unless other members of last year's freshman class step up their games in a big way in expanded roles—K.J. Lawson and Nick Marshall, in particular—it's going to be a long season of watching Dedric try to do everything.
There's a good chance he'll lead the AAC in both points and rebounds as a sophomore. Whether that's enough to put the Tigers in the top third of the conference standings is another story.
Providence Friars: Rodney Bullock
7 of 10
Teammates Lost: Kris Dunn, Ben Bentil, Junior Lomomba, Quadree Smith, Tyree Chambers
Was there a better inside-outside duo in college basketball in 2015-16 than Ben Bentil and Kris Dunn? That twosome combined to score 49.7 percent of Providence's points last season. Dunn and Bentil certainly would have been responsible for more than half of the Friars' points if Dunn hadn't missed two December games with a stomach bug.
With both of them gone, though, an awful lot of responsibility falls on the shoulders of last year's third-best player: Rodney Bullock.
Providence is loaded with notable incoming players. 4-star freshmen Maliek White and Alpha Diallo should be solid contributors. George Mason transfer Isaiah Jackson and former Indiana player Emmitt Holt ought to help, as well. But this young team—for a second straight year, there won't be a single scholarship senior on the roster—needs someone to step up and be the star.
At times last season, Bullock looked like he could be that guy. He had 29 points, 25 rebounds, six blocks and four steals in the aforementioned pair of games that Dunn missed. Bullock also had 25 and 10 in the Big East opener against Butler and was the star player of the NCAA tournament win over USC, finishing with 16 points, 10 rebounds, two blocks and two steals.
For every gem, though, there were a couple of duds in which Bullock did nothing. There were also games that he finished with a solid point total, but it was the result of too many attempted shots. Bullock also had games in which he committed too many fouls and turnovers along the way.
If Providence is to have any hope of a fourth consecutive NCAA tournament appearance, it will consistently need solid production from Bullock.
Tulsa Golden Hurricane: Pat Birt
8 of 10
Teammates Lost: James Woodard, Shaquille Harrison, Rashad Smith, Marquel Curtis, Brandon Swannegan, D'Andre Wright, Rashad Ray, Nick Wood, Kajon Brown, Emmanuel Ezechinonso
Good luck finding more of a rebuilding situation than the one that Tulsa is facing.
Of the 12 players to appear in a game for the Golden Hurricane in 2015-16, nine graduated and one scarcely used reserve transferred. In total, they lose more than 80 percent of their scoring with only Pat Birt (383 points) and Sterling Taplin (75) returning.
Frank Haith did have Rutgers transfer Junior Etou sitting out this past season, but with a career offensive rating of 97.0 and a box plus/minus of negative-1.1, let's just say we're not expecting Etou to be the second coming of Michael Jordan.
Other than that, Tulsa's roster is Birt and a ragtag bunch of JUCO transfers and little-known freshmen. And considering Birt was held scoreless in four games last season—including the NCAA tournament loss to Michigan—that's a bit of a terrifying proposition.
At least Haith is sticking around for this rebuild, which is more than can be said for his tenure with Missouri.
Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks: Ty Charles
9 of 10
Teammates Lost: Thomas Walkup, Clide Geffrard, Demetrious Floyd, Jared Johnson, Trey Pinkney
We aimed to limit this list just to teams from major and notable mid-major conferences, as there aren't many fans outside of the MEAC who care that Hampton needs to replace 77 percent of its scoring from last season. But Stephen F. Austin (SFA) has made enough of an impact on the NCAA tournament over the past three years that we're making an exception for the rebuilding Lumberjacks.
Even though they're losing three starters, two key reserves and a head coach, the 'Jacks are still the favorites to win the Southland Conference. It's one of the worst conferences in the country and SFA's top challenger (Texas A&M-Corpus Christi) is losing six of its nine leaders in minutes played. No one is chomping at the bit to leapfrog SFA.
Still, one has to wonder what the Lumberjacks will do without Thomas Walkup (18.1 PPG, 6.9 RPG, 4.5 APG, 2.1 SPG), who was the KenPom MVP of 20 games last season, including a stretch of 13 in 15 games late in the year.
Maybe they could get by if only Walkup were leaving, but there's a ton of roster upheaval at work here. Ty Charles (9.4 PPG, 4.8 RPG, 2.3 APG, 1.4 SPG) is left as the top returning player in all four of those categories, and he is one of just three returning players who averaged better than 2.5 points per game.
The 'Jacks have made a habit of struggling early in the season against major-conference foes—remember the season-opening 97-55 loss to Baylor this past November—but they turn things around just in time to go on a rampage through their conference schedule. Expect similar results this season as SFA spends the first six weeks figuring out its roster and cementing Charles as the team leader.
Utah Utes: Lorenzo Bonam
10 of 10
Teammates Lost: Jakob Poeltl, Jordan Loveridge, Brandon Taylor, Dakarai Tucker, Chris Reyes, Brekkott Chapman, Isaiah Wright, Kenneth Ogbe, Austin Montgomery, Austin Eastman, Makol Mawien, Brandon Miller
The list of no-longer Utes goes on and on. Four players graduated and one declared for the draft while seven (!!) transferred out of the program.
As a result, it could be a tumultuous year in Salt Lake City.
They do still have Kyle Kuzma and Lorenzo Bonam—who both averaged better than 10 points per game last season—but that's about it. Former JUCO transfer Gabe Bealer only played 105 minutes across 16 games, and he's the third-highest returning scorer. Walk-on freshman guard Jake Connor (17 points in six games) is the only other returning player to have even appeared in a game.
There is some frontcourt help on the way. Redshirt freshman Jayce Johnson should make a big, immediate impact at center, and Utah State transfer David Collette (12.8 PPG, 5.0 RPG, 1.8 BPG in 2014-15) will be a nice addition at power forward after sitting out the winter semester. Add in Kuzma's 10.8 points and 5.7 rebounds per game from last season and that's a solid three-headed monster in the paint.
The backcourt, though, is Bonam's and your best guess. JUCO transfers Tim Coleman and Jojo Zamora should see a lot of minutes, as will incoming freshman Devon Daniels and SMU transfer Sedrick Barefield (after sitting out the first semester). But even if one of those four lottery tickets hit, Bonam should be the undisputed team leader and primary ball-handler.
Bonam is a versatile wing and one of the team's biggest assets on defense, similar to Delon Wright during the 2014 and 2015 seasons. But Wright was one of the best players in the nation, and he had a better supporting cast. Expecting Bonam to lead this bunch back to the NCAA tournament might be setting the bar too high.
Stats courtesy of KenPom.com and Sports-Reference.com. Recruit rankings and info courtesy of 247Sports.
Kerry Miller covers college basketball for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @kerrancejames.
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