Gilbert Melendez vs. Edson Barboza: A Head-to-Toe Breakdown
UFC on Fox 20 has a lightweight co-main event that fans will be standing to watch.
The human highlight reel that is Edson Barboza (17-4) takes on the returning Gilbert Melendez (22-5) in Chicago. Barboza checks in at No. 7 on the Bleacher Report MMA rankings.
Barboza is coming off a win over former UFC champion Anthony Pettis at UFC 197. The performance erased the stinging defeat he suffered at the hands of Tony Ferguson in December and put him back in elite company in the division. Melendez returns after more than a year away and hopes to avoid losing three straight.
Two high-output strikers will meet and exchange, but only one will move forward in the shark-infested waters of the UFC's lightweight division.
How does this fight break down? Who will come out on top in Chicago? Those are the questions we are here to answer. This is your look at UFC on Fox 20's co-main event from head to toe.
Striking
1 of 5
Melendez has fought some spectacular strikers (Jorge Masvidal, Anthony Pettis, etc.), but dealing with Barboza's quickness is one thing he has never had to deal with in an opponent. Barboza can snap off a leg kick out of nowhere with incredible force.
Melendez's output would give him an edge against many other fighters. Per FightMetric, he averages 3.63 significant strikes landed per minute. Barboza lands 4.02.
Barboza is a special striker who has only gotten better in recent outings. He is 4-3 in his last seven fights, but those have all come against upper-echelon fighters. He has been an equal to his opposition. On the feet, he has been more than equal.
The Brazilian will also enjoy a two-inch reach advantage that will keep Melendez on the outside. Barboza has a stellar jab to keep Melendez at bay when he attempts to throw standard combinations.
Melendez's pressure boxing is solid and fun to watch, but against Barboza it is significantly outmatched. It's not going to be his path to victory.
Edge: Barboza
Grappling
2 of 5
Melendez has been a part of some of the most entertaining scraps in MMA history due to his penchant for exchanging on the feet, but do not let that make you forget he is a good wrestler.
Due to the matchup against Barboza, it is likely we will see him be more focused on utilizing this skill set on Saturday.
Melendez's wrestling is not just good in general, but specifically it is good against the fence. This is important against Barboza. Melendez will first have to cut off the cage before attempting takedowns. It most likely means that he will have to clinch with Barboza on the Octagon cage before dropping levels to complete a takedown.
Barboza has excellent takedown defense, but if Melendez can make him purely defensive, it will save him from knees in the clinch. Keeping position against the cage and slowing the pace of the fight will be beneficial for Melendez as he tries to return to the win column.
Edge: Melendez
Submissions
3 of 5
Common thought would be that since Melendez is the better grappler that he would also be the better submission stylist. That may be the case, but we do not have the tangible results to prove it.
Would it surprise you to know Melendez only has one career victory via submission, and that it came by strikes? The former Strikeforce champion does not have a single true submission win to his credit.
Barboza isn't much better, with only two submission victories during his career and none since 2009, but the fact remains he has the tangible evidence on his side. And that is really all that separates the two men in this category.
Defensively, Melendez has shown some stellar escapes over the years, perhaps none more impressive than in his battles with Josh Thomson. But he's not immune to tapping. Neither is Barboza. Both have been on the receiving end of submissions in the UFC.
It's a dead heat between them, but the tiebreaker has to be proven results. And that goes to Barboza.
Edge: Barboza
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X-Factors
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Barboza's X-Factor: Staying off the Cage
Barboza enters the younger, quicker, faster fighter. The one area where he can lose this fight is being stuck up against the cage with Melendez working his wrestling. He cannot let that happen.
He needs to circle away from the cage while sticking Melendez with his jab. If he can frustrate the former Strikeforce champion, then he can draw him into a brawl in the center. And he will win that exchange almost every time.
Melendez's X-Factor: Past His Prime?
Melendez was long considered to be one of the best lightweights in the world, but he was doing his work outside the UFC. After years and years of waiting, we finally got to see him step foot inside the Octagon in 2013.
He's gone 1-3.
Those losses have come against the elite. Two title tilts (Benson Henderson and Anthony Pettis) and a meeting against now-champion Eddie Alvarez. Still, he lost. And after a year away from the cage thanks to a positive test for "exogenous origin of testosterone metabolites," per the UFC (h/t Sherdog), it is difficult to project where he is at in his career.
At 34, it's possible this year away will rejuvenate his career. It's also possible it highlights his flaws as the sport begins to pass him by.
Prediction
5 of 5
As Odds Shark will show, Barboza is as much as a minus-250 favorite heading into the weekend. Do the oddsmakers know something? Maybe, but I'm going to go for the mild upset.
Melendez will fight an uphill battle to get inside the range of Barboza, but once there he can overwhelm the Brazilian. It's not just about punches in bunches, as Barboza can easily match that, but the ability to pressure the Brazilian to the cage.
Melendez has been known for his incredible pace, while Barboza often slows in the deep waters. That's a key for Melendez. Pressure, pressure, pressure and wilt his opponent. It's something he can do effectively in this matchup.
He won't finish Barboza, but he'll do enough to win Rounds 2 and 3 on the scorecards. The win will move Melendez right back into title contention as 2016 moves onward. Barboza will still be seeking the answer to consistent results.
Prediction: Melendez defeats Barboza by unanimous decision
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