NASCAR at Indianapolis 2016: Preview, Prediction for the Brickyard 400
This renewal of the Brickyard 400 may be the most charged in years.
Will Dale Earnhardt Jr. zip up the No. 88 Nationwide fire suit? Will Jeff Gordon don a new number the way Michael Jordan once wore the No. 45? Will the No. 88 car fall completely off the Chase Grid?
Can Chase Elliott stop the bleeding? Will Kevin Harvick ever smile again?
It’s gettin’ real for drivers on the Chase bubble. That’s where the real races are now.
It’s reminiscent and somehow foretelling of what happens in Chase elimination races. That floating, fluid cut line shows where drivers are in relation to one another. There’s racing for the win, but then there’s racing for desperation, for the chance to fight one more day.
This is the reward for a long season, and this shines the light brightest on drivers who often don’t get time out of the shadows.
It’s Brickyard time, so read on to see who will get a chance to make out with bricks at the start-finish line.
By the Numbers: Indianapolis Motor Speedway
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Crown Royal Presents The Combat Wounded Coalition 400 at The Brickyard
Place: Indianapolis Motor Speedway
Date: Sunday, July 24
TV Coverage: NBC Sports, 3:19 p.m.
Distance: 400 miles, 160 laps
Defending Champion: Kyle Busch
Current Driver Standings
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1. Kevin Harvick, 636
2. Brad Keselowski, 622
3. Kurt Busch, 602
4. Carl Edwards, 587
5. Joey Logano, 571
6. Kyle Busch, 556
7. Martin Truex Jr., 540
8. Matt Kenseth, 521
9. Jimmie Johnson, 514
10. Denny Hamlin, 505
11. Chase Elliott, 499
12. Ryan Newman, 497
13. Austin Dillon, 488
14. Jamie McMurray, 461
15. Dale Earnhardt Jr., 461
16. Trevor Bayne, 447
28. Tony Stewart, 287
Bold indicates race winner and italics indicate a multi-race winner.
The Chase Bubble Watch
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The Bubble’s Surface: Trevor Bayne, 16th in the driver standings, but just off the Chase Grid with 447 points.
Above the Line
Chase Elliott: +52
Ryan Newman: +50
Austin Dillon: +41
Jamie McMurray: +27
Earnhardt: +14
Below the Line
Bayne: -14
Ryan Blaney: -16
Kasey Kahne: -22
Kyle Larson: -25
Ricky Stenhouse Jr.: -41
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Biggest Storyline: What's Kevin Harvick's Problem?
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Lost amidst the win-and-you’re-in format to reach the Chase are the points. The best drivers week-to-week log the most points.
And for several weeks, bordering on months, the leader in points has been Kevin Harvick, despite having only won one race while five other drivers have logged more trips to Victory Lane.
Yet Happy Harvick* is decidedly unhappy after finishing fourth at Loudon.
"I'm disgusted to tell you the truth," said Harvick after the race via Chase Wilhelm’s FoxSports.com story. "It's the same thing every week. We just make mistake after mistake, and until we clean that up, we don't have a chance to win races by putting ourselves in a hole every time we make a mistake."
It’s a testament to his skill that he can overcome losing several spots on pit road and still manage top fives.
Harvick had similar problems in 2014, the year he won the Sprint Cup. There were all kinds of mistakes, but when it came down to the Chase, his team rose to the occasion.
Expect the same this year.
*I could easily Google this, but I’d rather ask you: Why is Harvick nicknamed Happy? I’ll read the comments this week. Pinky swear.
Biggest Storyline: Jeff Gordon Channels Brett Favre
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Seeing Jeff Gordon climb into the No. 88 car will be, in a word, weird. Even when Gordon’s lead sponsor changed from Dupont to Axalta, that wasn’t as weird, because it was always the No. 24 car.
Seeing Gordon (Water Cooler Jeff?) sport Nationwide (one presumes) colors and driving an entirely new car (new number, the chassis and tech should all be what he’s used to, again, one presumes) will be more a mind trip than anything. Bizarro World.
“I’ve learned to never underestimate that man, without a doubt,” Jimmie Johnson told the NASCAR Wire Service (h/t Autoweek.com). “And it’s Indy, a place that he loves dearly. He’s the most winning driver there. I’m sure it will take a few laps to knock the rust off and get going, but there’s enough on-track time and the race is long enough that he’ll have a shot.”
As for Earnhardt, there is no timetable for his return. He did give an update on his condition, and by the sound of it, it appears he will not be ready for Indy. That’s simply my take, but you never know until a few days before qualifying.
On a semi-related note, I wouldn’t be surprised if Earnhardt hangs up the fire suit and the skeleton gloves and takes one last drag from a bottle of Diet Mountain Dew this year.
We’ve seen early retirements in football because of head injuries, and since Junior is the most outspoken driver with respect to head injuries, he may set an example and retire before his condition worsens.
Biggest Storyline: Can Chase Elliott Stop the Bleeding?
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For a time, Chase Elliott rattled off a great string of finishes. He had eight top 10s from nine races culminating with that career-best second at Michigan.
That vaulted him to sixth in the driver standings, a veritable lock to make the Chase on points alone.
Then the presumptive Rookie of the Year finished 32nd at Daytona and slid to seventh in the points.
He took 31st at Kentucky and fell to eighth in points. Okay, no panic.
Most recently, he fared no better than 34th at Loudon and fell three spots to 11th in the standings. Now there’s reason for concern in the Garage de Gustafson.
Is this bad luck, rookie woes or simply a slump most if not all drivers go through over the course of the long season?
Kyle Busch went through a similar stretch a few weeks ago, but had security knowing he had won his races and was Chase-bound no matter what.
Not the case with Elliott. A top 15 at Indy will go a long way toward righting the ship, possibly piloting the No. 24 car past the former driver of the No. 24 car.
There will be some killer “awkward moment” GIFs on Twitter during the race. Maybe I’ll be that pioneer…
Dark-Horse Pick: Greg Biffle
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At Daytona RFR placed three of its cars in the top 10. That’s Joe Gibbsian.
And while Bayne and Stenhouse are a bit on the erratic side, the one with the best speed over the past three weeks has been Greg Biffle.
He won the pole at Daytona and finished eighth. He followed that up with a sixth-place performance at Kentucky and a fifth at Loudon.
Biffle also has three top fives at the Brickyard. Couple that with his resurgence in speed and that makes him a sleeper to win.
And the Winner Is...Jimmie Johnson
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Look for Jimmie Johnson to have a solid bounce-back week.
He’s been qualifying well, and he has four career wins at the Brickyard, his most recent coming in 2012.
It’s hard to pinpoint, but Johnson has been one of those drivers who consistently runs inside the top 10 during the race. He hasn’t been able to finish there with any regularity (seven on the season, with six of those seven inside the top five). So when he’s good, he’s real good. Otherwise, not so much.
He has an average finish of 23.9 over the past six races and has only two top 10s dating all the way back to Richmond, the ninth race of the year.
All evidence would suggest Johnson doesn’t have the speed with the lower downforce aero package, but maybe he finds it at a track he’s relished in the past.
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